This paper highlights the importance of natural resource concentration and ethnic group regional concentration for ethnic conflict. The existence of multiple conflict terrains (and hence multiple ...threat points) is the source of bargaining failure, similar to the one determined by the presence of offensive advantages. The theory predicts war to be more likely when resource concentration and group concentration are high, and the empirical analysis, both at the country level and at the ethnic group level, confirms the essential role of geographic concentration variables for civil war.
•Natural resource concentration and ethnic group concentration matter for ethnic conflict.•We find bargaining failure due to multiple conflict terrains.•We construct a novel measure of oil inequality: Oil Gini.•We perform a country and ethnic group level regression analysis.•War is found to be more likely when resource concentration and group concentration are high.
Scholars of the resource curse argue that reliance on primary commodities destabilizes governments: price fluctuations generate windfalls or periods of austerity that provoke or intensify civil ...conflict. Over 350 quantitative studies test this claim, but prominent results point in different directions, making it difficult to discern which results reliably hold across contexts. We conduct a meta-analysis of 46 natural experiments that use difference-in-difference designs to estimate the causal effect of commodity price changes on armed civil conflict. We show that commodity price changes, on average, do not change the likelihood of conflict. However, there are cross-cutting effects by commodity type. In line with theory, we find price increases for labor-intensive agricultural commodities reduce conflict, while increases in the price of oil, a capital-intensive commodity, provoke conflict. We also find that price increases for lootable artisanal minerals provoke conflict. Our meta-analysis consolidates existing evidence, but also highlights opportunities for future research.
Green economic growth emphasizes the coordinated development of economy and environment under the constraints of resource-carrying and environmental capacities. Many developing countries rich in ...natural resources face more severe resource and environmental problems with relatively poor green growth performance. In this context, whether an abundance of resources hinders the growth of the green economy has become a significant issue of debate. Here, we use the non-radial distance function to calculate a green economic growth evaluation index and examine the relationships between resource abundance and green economic growth in 40 resource-rich developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. We also evaluate the mechanism and transmission pathway between resource abundance and economic growth. Our results show that an abundance of resources restrains the growth rate of the green economy in developing countries mainly via an “innovation effect” and a “technical leader transfer effect”, which promote resource-rich regions to undermine green economic growth. In terms of transmission, this effect exerts a negative impact on green economic growth by squeezing out technological spillovers from technological innovation, human capital investment, and opening up to the outside world. Therefore, governments should increase investment in human capital development, improving infrastructure for green technology research and development, and planning for the settlement of emerging industries and green industries. These strategies are conducive to the realization of green growth transition and sustainable economic development in developing countries.
•Green economic growth is relatively poor in resource-rich developing countries.•We examine this relationship in 40 countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.•The underlying mechanisms and transmission pathways are identified.•An “innovation effect” and a “technical leader transfer effect” are highlighted.•Investing in human capital and R&D infrastructure can support green growth.
To accelerate industrial structure adjustment and effectively mitigate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, this study aims to investigate the carbon emission reduction effect of China's industrial ...structure adjustment. For this purpose, considering the potential spatial effect, the spatial econometric technique is utilized. Also, the industrial structure adjustment is divided into industrial structure upgrading and industrial structure optimization for heterogeneous analysis. Then, we empirically explore the mediating role of energy efficiency in the relationship between industrial structure adjustment and CO2 emissions in China. Three findings are drawn from the estimation results: (1) the index of industrial structure upgrading in China has gradually increased, while the index of industrial structure optimization has displayed a slightly downward trend; (2) industrial structure upgrading shows a significant spatial negative correlation with CO2 emissions, while industrial structure optimization affects CO2 emissions positively; and (3) industrial structure upgrading can reduce CO2 emissions by improving energy efficiency, and industrial structure optimization can exacerbate the greenhouse effect by impeding energy efficiency improvements. Based on these findings, we make several policy suggestions for mitigating CO2 emissions and promoting industrial structure adjustment in China.
•The greenhouse effect of China's industrial structure adjustment (ISA) is explored.•Industrial structure upgrading can reduce CO2 emissions.•Industrial structure optimization cannot promote carbon emission reduction.•Upgrading industrial structure mitigates CO2 by improving energy efficiency.•Industrial structure optimization promotes CO2 by inhibiting the improvement of energy efficiency.
Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of ...our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous United States to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how differences in underlying market forces can have large impacts on land-use with cascading effects on ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project a large increase in croplands (28.2 million ha) under a scenario with high crop demand mirroring conditions starting in 2007, compared with a loss of cropland (11.2 million ha) mirroring conditions in the 1990s. Projected land-use changes result in increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields, and >10% decreases in habitat for 25% of modeled species. We also analyze policy alternatives designed to encourage forest cover and natural landscapes and reduce urban expansion. Although these policy scenarios modify baseline land-use patterns, they do not reverse powerful underlying trends. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use change trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision.
Ecosystem transformation involves the emergence of persistent ecological or social–ecological systems that diverge, dramatically and irreversibly, from prior ecosystem structure and function. Such ...transformations are occurring at increasing rates across the planet in response to changes in climate, land use, and other factors. Consequently, a dynamic view of ecosystem processes that accommodates rapid, irreversible change will be critical for effectively conserving fish, wildlife, and other natural resources, and maintaining ecosystem services. However, managing ecosystems toward states with novel structure and function is an inherently unpredictable and difficult task. Managers navigating ecosystem transformation can benefit from considering broader objectives, beyond a traditional focus on resisting ecosystem change, by also considering whether accepting inevitable change or directing it along some desirable pathway is more feasible (that is, practical and appropriate) under some circumstances (the RAD framework). By explicitly acknowledging transformation and implementing an iterative RAD approach, natural resource managers can be deliberate and strategic in addressing profound ecosystem change.
•Sustainability is converting natural to human and produced capital via discovery, extraction, appropriation, and reinvestment.•We estimate causal effects of energy resource conversion on Genuine ...Savings, the main metric of weak sustainable development.•Energy extraction and exports jointly lower Genuine Savings, except for countries with strong institutions.•Comparative advantage in the traded energy sector fosters sustainable development for selected countries.•Countries lacking a comparative advantage can convert energy resources sustainably by avoiding exports.
Natural resource-rich countries face the challenge of harnessing their resources for sustainable economic development. Although existing literature extensively studies the resource curse phenomenon, gaps remain in understanding exactly how natural resource use impacts sustainable development. This study addresses this gap by analyzing how the natural resource conversion process affects sustainable economic development, using Genuine Savings as the key indicator. The natural resource conversion process encompasses four distinct stages—discovery, extraction, appropriation, and (re-)investments—that transform natural resources into human- and produced capital assets to achieve sustainable development, consistent with the weak sustainability paradigm. Employing a comprehensive dataset spanning 118 countries over 20 years, we use an instrumental variable approach to estimate the causal effects of four variables corresponding to the four stages of conversion: natural capital, natural resource rents, resource exports, and government resource revenues. Results show that energy rents (oil, gas, and coal) and exports jointly decrease Genuine Savings, except in countries with good institutions. Contrary to previous studies, we demonstrate that economies specializing heavily in energy exports successfully leverage their comparative advantage, increasing Genuine Savings. Other countries achieve sustainable development through energy extraction and domestic use of resources. We conclude that successful resource management for sustainable economic development aims to achieve two objectives. First, it seeks to reduce energy exports when at a comparative disadvantage or harness them when at a comparative advance. Second, it focuses on improving institutional quality.
Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) is a major global strategy for enhancing conservation outcomes while also seeking to improve rural livelihoods; however, little evidence of ...socioeconomic outcomes exists. We present a national-level analysis that empirically estimates socioeconomic impacts of CBNRM across Tanzania, while systematically controlling for potential sources of bias. Specifically, we apply a difference-in-differences model to national-scale, cross-sectional data to estimate the impact of three different CBNRM governance regimes on wealth, food security and child health, considering differential impacts of CBNRM on wealthy and poor populations. We also explore whether or not longer-standing CBNRM efforts provide more benefits than recently-established CBNRM areas. Our results show significant improvements in household food security in CBNRM areas compared with non-CBNRM areas, but household wealth and health outcomes in children are generally not significantly different. No one CBNRM governance regime demonstrates consistently different welfare outcomes than the others. Wealthy households benefit more from CBNRM than poor households and CBNRM benefits appear to increase with longer periods of implementation. Perhaps evidence of CBNRM benefits is limited because CBNRM hasn't been around long enough to yield demonstrable outcomes. Nonetheless, achieving demonstrable benefits to rural populations will be crucial for CBNRM's future success in Tanzania.
Information and communication technologies (ICTs) influence economic growth, yet, innovation in natural resource development and energy demands is seldom considered. Will the development of ICTs aid ...in alleviating this natural resource curse? An analysis of time-series data from 30 Chinese provinces confirms this effect, and this finding is especially robust. In particular, some Chinese regions are affected by an abundance of natural resources. Computing, telephone, cellular connections, and incentives for technological collaboration result in greater energy demands and, thus, greater CO2 emissions. In short, ICT growth somewhat alleviates the resource curse. This effect is heterogeneous in terms of the level of regional financial development and the presence of a resource curse in the location. Policymakers seeking to develop long-term, nationwide e-sustainable strategies must then lower natural resource prices and pollution abatement costs through technologically driven natural resource expansion.
•Information and communication technologies (ICTs) can alleviate the resource curse.•Some Chinese regions were affected by the curse of abundant natural resources.•With ICT growth, the resource curse in China is alleviating.•ICT impact on resource curve alleviation depends on regional financial development.•E-sustainable strategies or technologically driven natural resource expansion are recommended.
PDF
