Despite fierce politicization in arms‐exporting democracies, we lack systematic research on mass public preferences on arms transfers. We propose that citizens either apply a deontologist (rejecting ...transfers categorically) or consequentialist (trading‐off economic, strategic and normative aspects) calculus of preference formation. Conducting population‐representative survey experiments (N=6617$N=6617$) in Germany and France, two global top‐five major arms exporters, we find that 10–15 per cent of respondents follow deontologist considerations, a preference structure potentially relevant for all foreign policies involving the use of military force. Still, a majority shows differentiated preferences, giving largest weight to normative considerations, with assessments affected by moderating features (e.g., scenarios of just war). Principled rejection of arms trade and a large consequentialist weight for normative factors are more pronounced in Germany compared to France, indicating that public opinion might pose a stronger constraint for government policy in this country. Respondents' preferences match opinion polls on post‐Russian invasion Ukraine armament, indicating high external validity of our experiments.
Aim: The Centre for International Public Policy has undertaken a public opinion research in which we tested the opinions of the citizens of Serbia on the coronavirus epidemic. The respondents had the ...opportunity to express their opinion on measures undertaken by the Serbian Government to combat the virus, to state their trust in the media, as well as the health system in general. In addition, we tested the prevalence of different conspiracy theories among citizens, whether the pandemic gave China a new image in the minds of the people and, most importantly, the level of solidarity among Serbian citizens as well as within the European / international community as a whole. Methods: In seven days, from 8-15th April 2020, we gathered a convenient sample of N=5989 respondents, which makes this the largest public opinion research project in Serbia on the topic of COVID-19 since the start of the epidemic. The electronic questionnaire consisted of 24 questions of mixed and closed type. Results: The findings of this research suggest that citizens of Serbia are not afraid of COVID-19, but are nevertheless cautious (86%). The percentage of those willing to consult a doctor when they notice any symptoms lies at 70%. Half of the respondents do not believe in alternative theories regarding the origin of the COVID-19 virus. The majority of the respondents (55%) hold government officials accountable for spreading panic through public speeches and daily public addresses. Moreover, 60% of the respondents do not trust the Serbian media outlets that are currently reporting on the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, over half of the respondents are prepared to report their neighbour when he or she is coming from abroad and violates the obligation to self-isolate. However, mostly due to the significant fines, 65% of the respondents would not report the elderly when they are breaking the limited-movement restriction measures. Conclusion: As before the epidemic, opinions of the Serbian population on current topics are somewhat polarized. Although the majority of the respondents are cautious, a significant number also believes in conspiracy theories and does not fully trust the information provided by the media or the government.
•We forecast U.S. adoption of connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technologies.•Blind spot monitoring is the most attractive Level 1 technology for Americans.•Average willingness to pay (WTP) for ...connectivity & full automation: $67 & $5857.•Fleet simulations vary technology prices, WTP, and regulations over time.•Predict 24% (pessimistic) to 87% (optimistic) Level 4 U.S. vehicle fleet by 2045.
Automobile manufacturers, transportation researchers, and policymakers are interested in knowing the future of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). To this end, this study proposes a new simulation-based fleet evolution framework to forecast Americans’ long-term (year 2015–2045) adoption levels of CAV technologies under eight different scenarios based on 5% and 10% annual drops in technology prices; 0%, 5%, and 10% annual increments in Americans’ willingness to pay (WTP); and changes in government regulations (e.g., mandatory adoption of connectivity on new vehicles). This simulation was calibrated with data obtained from a survey of 2167 Americans, regarding their preferences for CAV technologies (e.g., WTP) and their household’s annual vehicle transaction decisions.
Long-term fleet evolution suggests that the privately held light-duty-vehicle fleet will have 24.8% Level 4 AV penetration by 2045 if one assumes an annual 5% price drop and constant WTP values (from 2015 forward). This share jumps to 87.2% if one uses a 10% annual rate of decline in prices and a 10% annual rise in WTP values. Overall, simulations suggest that, without a rise in most people’s WTP, or policies that promote or require technologies, or unusually rapid reductions in technology costs, it is unlikely that the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet’s technology mix will be anywhere near homogeneous by the year 2045.
Geodiversity of value must be conserved and thus bring benefits to the local population. The goal of this study was to analyze the perception of João Dourado inhabitants regarding their geodiversity, ...as well as to seek suggestions from the residents on its geoconservation. The opinion survey was carried out with 280 residents and we found that 254 respondents understand that the city's rocks, water, and caves are considered as heritage and 231 believe that they may have associated economic value. Most people show confidence in the benefits that geodiversity could offer in economic and social terms, such as attracting geotourists to the city.
Can residents of Ukraine discern between pro-Kremlin disinformation and true statements? Moreover, which pro-Kremlin disinformation claims are more likely to be believed, and by which audiences? We ...present the results from two surveys carried out in 2019—one online and the other face-to-face—that address these questions in Ukraine, where the Russian government and its supporters have heavily targeted disinformation campaigns. We find that, on average, respondents can distinguish between true stories and disinformation. However, many Ukrainians remain uncertain about a variety of disinformation claims’ truthfulness. We show that the topic of the disinformation claim matters. Disinformation about the economy is more likely to be believed than disinformation about politics, historical experience, or the military. Additionally, Ukrainians with partisan and ethnolinguistic ties to Russia are more likely to believe pro-Kremlin disinformation across topics. Our findings underscore the importance of evaluating multiple types of disinformation claims present in a country and examining these claims’ target audiences.
► This work provides new data on vehicle ownership decisions and owner preferences under various scenarios. ► We use a set of inter-woven behavioral models to microsimulate Austin’s personal fleet ...evolution and its related emissions. ► PHEV market share is the highest in the FEEBATE scenario. ► Advertising emissions impacts can shift purchase decisions to more sustainable choices..
In today’s world of volatile fuel prices and climate concerns, there is little study on the relationship between vehicle ownership patterns and attitudes toward vehicle cost (including fuel prices and feebates) and vehicle technologies. This work provides new data on ownership decisions and owner preferences under various scenarios, coupled with calibrated models to microsimulate Austin’s personal-fleet evolution.
Opinion survey results suggest that most Austinites (63%, population-corrected share) support a feebate policy to favor more fuel efficient vehicles. Top purchase criteria are price, type/class, and fuel economy. Most (56%) respondents also indicated that they would consider purchasing a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) if it were to cost $6000 more than its conventional, gasoline-powered counterpart. And many respond strongly to signals on the external (health and climate) costs of a vehicle’s emissions, more strongly than they respond to information on fuel cost savings.
Twenty five-year simulations of Austin’s household vehicle fleet suggest that, under all scenarios modeled, Austin’s vehicle usage levels (measured in total vehicle miles traveled or VMT) are predicted to increase overall, along with average vehicle ownership levels (both per household and per capita). Under a feebate, HEVs, PHEVs and Smart Cars are estimated to represent 25% of the fleet’s VMT by simulation year 25; this scenario is predicted to raise total regional VMT slightly (just 2.32%, by simulation year 25), relative to the trend scenario, while reducing CO
2 emissions only slightly (by 5.62%, relative to trend). Doubling the trend-case gas price to $5/gallon is simulated to reduce the year-25 vehicle use levels by 24% and CO
2 emissions by 30% (relative to trend).
Two- and three-vehicle households are simulated to be the highest adopters of HEVs and PHEVs across all scenarios. The combined share of vans, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and cross-over utility vehicles (CUVs) is lowest under the feebate scenario, at 35% (versus 47% in Austin’s current household fleet). Feebate-policy receipts are forecasted to exceed rebates in each simulation year.
In the longer term, gas price dynamics, tax incentives, feebates and purchase prices along with new technologies, government-industry partnerships, and more accurate information on range and recharging times (which increase customer confidence in EV technologies) should have added effects on energy dependence and greenhouse gas emissions.
The National League for Democracy (NLD) was largely synonymous with Myanmar’s semi-democratic intermezzo in 2016–21. For 2 years after the military coup in 2021, it resumed the role of major ...opposition party performed from 1988 to 2015. Although it was dissolved by the military junta in 2023, it remains a dominant political force inside the country. This article examines the commitment of NLD leaders and voters to liberal agendas. It reviews existing literature, draws on our dataset of Facebook posts by NLD members of parliament, analyses our 2017 survey, and triangulates it with 2020 World Values Survey data. It argues that the NLD was a relatively liberal force in Myanmar’s democratisation in the 2010s, though its liberal commitments were coupled with rising illiberal values. It is thus possible that even if the NLD were reconstituted and re-elected under a future democratic settlement, that democracy would not be liberal.
•911 Surveys r.e. plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) extensively analyzed.•Collected on Amazon Mechanical Turk crowd-sourcing platform and posted online.•Strongest climate or energy concerns ...raise odds of PHEV acceptance by 44 or 71.•Those most open to PHEVs will only pay average of $1858 to save $500/yr in gas.•Up-front incentives and ads targeting environmentalists may be most effective.
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) show potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, increase fuel efficiency, and offer driving ranges that are not limited by battery capacity. However, these benefits will not be realized if consumers do not adopt this new technology. Several agent-based models have been developed to model potential market penetration of PHEVs, but gaps in the available data limit the usefulness of these models. To address this, we administered a survey to 1000 stated US residents, using Amazon Mechanical Turk, to better understand factors influencing the potential for PHEV market penetration. Our analysis of the survey results reveals quantitative patterns and correlations that extend the existing literature. For example, respondents who felt most strongly about reducing US transportation energy consumption and cutting greenhouse gas emissions had, respectively, 71 and 44 times greater odds of saying they would consider purchasing a compact PHEV than those who felt least strongly about these issues. However, even the most inclined to consider a compact PHEV were not generally willing to pay more than a few thousand US dollars extra for the sticker price. Consistent with prior research, we found that financial and battery-related concerns remain major obstacles to widespread PHEV market penetration. We discuss how our results help to inform agent-based models of PHEV market penetration, governmental policies, and manufacturer pricing and marketing strategies to promote consumer adoption of PHEVs.
Explanatory models accounting for variation in policy choices by democratic governments usually include a demand (by the public) and a supply (by the government) component, whereas the latter ...component is usually better developed from a measurement viewpoint. The main reason is that public opinion surveys, the standard approach to measuring public demand, are expensive, difficult to implement simultaneously for different countries for purposes of crossnational comparison and impossible to implement ex post for purposes of longitudinal analysis if survey data for past time periods are lacking. We therefore propose a new approach to measuring public demand, focussing on political claims made by nongovernmental actors and expressed in the news. To demonstrate the feasibility and usefulness of our measure of published opinion, we focus on climate policy in the time period between 1995 and 2010. When comparing the new measure of published opinion with the best available public opinion survey and internet search data, it turns out that our data can serve as a meaningful proxy for public demand.
While connected, highly automated, and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) will eventually hit the roads, their success and market penetration rates depend largely on public opinions regarding benefits, ...concerns, and adoption of these technologies. Additionally, the introduction of these technologies is accompanied by uncertainties in their effects on the carsharing market and land use patterns, and raises the need for tolling policies to appease the travel demand induced due to the increased convenience. To these ends, this study surveyed 1088 respondents across Texas to understand their opinions about smart vehicle technologies and related decisions. The key summary statistics indicate that Texans are willing to pay (WTP) $2910, $4607, $7589, and $127 for Level 2, Level 3, and Level 4 automation and connectivity, respectively, on average. Moreover, affordability and equipment failure are Texans’ top two concerns regarding AVs. This study also estimates interval regression and ordered probit models to understand the multivariate correlation between explanatory variables, such as demographics, built-environment attributes, travel patterns, and crash histories, and response variables, including willingness to pay for CAV technologies, adoption rates of shared AVs at different pricing points, home location shift decisions, adoption timing of automation technologies, and opinions about various tolling policies. The practically significant relationships indicate that more experienced licensed drivers and older people associate lower WTP values with all new vehicle technologies. Such parameter estimates help not only in forecasting long-term adoption of CAV technologies, but also help transportation planners in understanding the characteristics of regions with high or low future-year CAV adoption levels, and subsequently, develop smart strategies in respective regions.
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