Population Aging Cotlear, Daniel
2011, 2010, 12-13-2010, 20110101
eBook, Book
Odprti dostop
Latin America and the Caribbean will soon face the challenges of an aging population. This process, which took over a century in the rich world, will occur in two or three decades in the developing ...world; seven of the 25 countries that will age more rapidly are in LAC. Population aging will pose challenges and offer opportunities. This book explores three sets of issues. First is a group of issues related to the support of the aging and poverty in the life cycle. This covers questions of work and retirement, income and wealth, and living arrangements and intergenerational transfers. It also explores the relation between the life cycle and poverty. Second is the question of the health transition. How does the demographic transition impact the health status of the population and the demand for health care? And how advanced is the health transition in LAC? Third is an understanding of the fiscal pressures that are likely to accompany population aging and to disentangle the role of demography from the role of policy in that process. This book provides an introduction to the concepts and techniques at the intersection of demography and economics. It summarizes the policy debate about potential reforms needed to make population aging an opportunity for development.
Population aging will affect the performance of pension funds and financial markets in the former transition economies and require determined policy actions to complete financial market development ...and to promote financial literacy through education.
Fertility and mortality decline are major drivers of Iran’s population aging. A rapid and sharp fall in fertility rates over the past three decades as well as a substantial rise in life expectancy ...are causing rapid aging of Iran’s population. The present paper uses the 2015 United Nations Population Division data to discuss the trends, determinants and the implications of population aging in Iran. According to the medium fertility variant, people age 60 and older will represent 31% (almost 29 million people) of Iran’s population by 2050. The population age 65 and older is projected to be 22% (more than 20 million) and that of aged 80 and older 3.8% (around 3.5 million) in 2050, that are almost four-times higher than the corresponding figures in 2015. Data on the speed of population aging show that Iran is the second fastest aging country in the world in terms of the percentage point increase in the population age 60 and over between 2015 and 2050; Iran is second only to South Korea, by less than .01%. The rapid population aging of Iran has significant implications for all societal institutions and decision makers that have to be addressed by the Iranian society. Gender-related issues and socio-economic security in old age are two key issues resulting from such a fast population aging. As with many rapidly aging populations, Iran needs a strategy for social and economic supports for an aging population that will not promote views of aging people as a burden.
•Estimates of PM2.5 concentrations in 2030 declined compared with 2015.•If the age structure maintains, PM2.5-related premature death in 2030 related to 2015 decreased.•With the population aging, ...PM2.5-related premature death would sharply increase in 2030.
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is one of the most critical environmental and public health problems in China and has caused an enormous disease burden, especially long-term PM2.5 exposure. Global climate change represents another environmental challenge in the coming decades and is also an essential factor affecting PM2.5 pollution. Moreover, China has an aging population with a changing population size and falling age-standardized mortality rates. However, little evidence exists evaluating the potential impacts from climate change and population aging on the long-term PM2.5 exposure-related disease burden. This study quantifies the impacts of climate and population changes on changes in the disease burden attributed to long-term PM2.5 exposure from 2015 to 2030 in mainland China, which could add evidence for the revision of relevant environmental standards and health policies.
This modeling study investigated long-term PM2.5 exposure-related mortality across China based on PM2.5 projections under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and population scenarios from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). PM2.5 concentrations were simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling systems. In addition, three types of population projections in 2030 relative to 2015 were set up as follows: (i) the population remained the same as that in 2015; (ii) the population size changed under SSPs, but the age structure remained the same; (iii) both the population size and age structure changed under SSPs. The global exposure mortality model (GEMM) was adopted to estimate PM2.5-related premature deaths.
Ambient PM2.5 concentrations decreased from 2015 to 2030 under the two climate and emission scenarios. Estimates of related premature mortality in 2030 declined compared with that in 2015 due to lower PM2.5 concentrations (RCP4.5: −16.8%; RCP8.5: −16.4%). If the age structure of the population remained unchanged and the population size changed under SSPs, the nonaccidental premature mortality also showed a decrease ranging from −18.6% to −14.9%. When both population size and age structure changed under SSPs, the population in China would become older. Nonaccidental premature mortality would sharply increase by 35.7–52.3% (with a net increase of 666–977 thousand) in 2030.
The PM2.5 pollution in 2030 under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 would slightly improve. The population sizes in 2030 projected by SSPs are relatively stable compared with that in 2015. However, the modest decrease due to air pollution improvement and stable population size would be offset by population aging.
The main theories on population aging based on recent data on human longevity, life expectancy, morbidity changes, disability trends, and mortality decrease are presented and discussed within their ...own geographic, cultural, socioeconomic, and medical contexts. The complex interactions between all these components do not facilitate trend forecasting of aging population (healthy aging versus disability pandemic).
This study examines the impact of population aging on labor investment efficiency in Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2020. Our main findings reveal that aging can positively influence labor ...investment efficiency, particularly in firms with labor redundancies such as state-owned enterprises, those with labor unions, high labor costs, and financial constraints. The positive effect is lessened in regions with abundant human capital, within the manufacturing sector, and labor-intensive industries. The results show that improvements in labor efficiency are distinct from changes in capital investment efficiency, indicating no general rebalancing of resources due to demographic shifts. Firms with limited investment opportunities and under strict external monitoring benefit more from an aging workforce. Overall, our findings suggest that an aging population can offer opportunities for firms to enhance labor investment efficiency, challenging the conventional view of population aging as solely a threat.
•There is a positive effect of population aging on labor investment efficiency.•This effect is stronger in state-owned enterprises and companies with labor unions and higher hiring costs.•There are two underlying mechanisms involved, ie, a firm's reduced labor redundancy and optimized decisions on employment.
Population ageing is an increasingly severe global issue. And this has been posing challenges for public health policies and medical resource allocation There are various features of population ...ageing in different regions worldwide.
All data were obtained from the health data of World Bank Open Data. Quantile linear regression was used to subtly measure the common variation tendency and strength of the global ageing rate and ageing population. The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) was employed to assess the detailed spatial temporal evolution of ageing rate and ageing population in global 195 countries and regions.
Annual growth of the ageing (65 and above) rate occurred on six continents: Europe (0.1532%), Oceania (0.0873%), Asia (0.0834%), South America (0.0723%), North America (0.0673%) and Africa (0.0069%). The coefficient of variation of the global ageing rate increased from 0.54 in 1960 to 0.69 in 2017. The global ageing rate and ageing population increased over this period, correlating positively with their quantiles. Most countries (37/39) in Europe belong to the top level with regard to the ageing rate, including the countries with the greatest degree of ageing-Sweden, Germany, Austria, Belgium and the UK-whose spatial relative risks of ageing are 3.180 (3.113-3.214), 3.071 (3.018-3.122), 2.951 (2.903-3.001), 2.932 (2.880-2.984) and 2.917 (2.869-2.967), respectively. Worldwide, 44 low ageing areas which were distributed mainly in Africa (26 areas) and Asia (15 areas) experienced a decreasing trend of ageing rates. The local trends of ageing population in the 195 areas increased.
The differentiation of global population ageing is becoming increasingly serious. Globally, all 195 areas showed an increasing local ageing trend in absolute terms, although there were 44 low-ageing areas that experienced a decreasing local trend of ageing rate. The statistical results may provide some baseline reference for developing public health policies in various countries or regions, especially in less-developed areas.
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