ABSTRACT In this discussion response, we consider some practical implications of the authors’ consideration of the no-highest-order interaction (NHOI) model for multiple systems estimation, which ...permits the authors to derive the explicit (albeit untestable) identifying assumption related to the unobserved (or missing) individuals. In particular, we discuss several aspects, from the standard process of model selection to potential poor predictive performance due to over-fitting and the implications of data reduction. We discuss these aspects in relation to the case study presented by the authors relating to the number of civilian casualties within the Kosovo war, and conduct further preliminary simulations to investigate these issues further. The results suggest that the NHOI models considered, despite having a potentially useful theoretical result in relation to the underlying identifying assumption, may perform poorly in practice.
In this discussion response, we consider some practical implications of the authors' consideration of the no-highest-order interaction (NHOI) model for multiple systems estimation, which permits the ...authors to derive the explicit (albeit untestable) identifying assumption related to the unobserved (or missing) individuals. In particular, we discuss several aspects, from the standard process of model selection to potential poor predictive performance due to over-fitting and the implications of data reduction. We discuss these aspects in relation to the case study presented by the authors relating to the number of civilian casualties within the Kosovo war, and conduct further preliminary simulations to investigate these issues further. The results suggest that the NHOI models considered, despite having a potentially useful theoretical result in relation to the underlying identifying assumption, may perform poorly in practice.
High resolution, contemporary data on human population distributions, their characteristics and changes over time are a prerequisite for the accurate measurement of the impacts of population growth, ...for monitoring changes and for planning interventions. WorldPop aims to meet these needs through the provision of detailed and open access spatial demographic datasets built using transparent approaches. The Scientific Data WorldPop collection brings together descriptor papers on these datasets and is introduced here.
At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals
. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to ...opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife
. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.
River plastic emissions to the world's oceans Lebreton, Laurent C M; van der Zwet, Joost; Damsteeg, Jan-Willem ...
Nature communications,
06/2017, Letnik:
8, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Plastics in the marine environment have become a major concern because of their persistence at sea, and adverse consequences to marine life and potentially human health. Implementing mitigation ...strategies requires an understanding and quantification of marine plastic sources, taking spatial and temporal variability into account. Here we present a global model of plastic inputs from rivers into oceans based on waste management, population density and hydrological information. Our model is calibrated against measurements available in the literature. We estimate that between 1.15 and 2.41 million tonnes of plastic waste currently enters the ocean every year from rivers, with over 74% of emissions occurring between May and October. The top 20 polluting rivers, mostly located in Asia, account for 67% of the global total. The findings of this study provide baseline data for ocean plastic mass balance exercises, and assist in prioritizing future plastic debris monitoring and mitigation strategies.
Discovery of new seismic concern stokes flooding fear for densely populated delta region
Discovery of new seismic concern stokes flooding fear for densely populated delta region
PDF
