This paper investigates the debt-growth nexus by testing both the impact of aggregate public debt on economic growth and the relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth ...using South Africa as the case study—from 1970 to 2017. Based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique, the findings reveal that the impact of aggregated public debt on economic growth in South Africa is statistically significant and negative, both in the short run and in the long run. The results further reveal that domestic public debt and economic growth have a statistically significant and positive relationship in the short run only. Furthermore, foreign public debt has a statistically significant and negative relationship with economic growth but only in the long run. Therefore, the study recommends the government to manage effectively its debt and to finance long-term high-returning productive investments that should translate into economic growth. Finally, the study cautions the country against growing public debt, predominantly foreign debt, to finance its increasing recurrent expenditure needs.
Global energy systems must be restructured to accommodate low-carbon energy sources and technologies to improve the socio-economic welfare of the state and reduce energy impacts on the environment. ...While nuclear energy has long been controversial, especially among environmentalists, numerous advocates now argue that it should be considered a clean energy source to boost human welfare, achieve energy security, and combat climate change. This research intends to study the properties of nuclear energy, public debt, trade globalization, and their impacts on human development in a heterogeneous panel of sixteen OECD nations for the dataset from 1990 to 2019 using the novel cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lag model and Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality test. The empirical results suggest that nuclear energy and trade globalization boost human development, while higher public debt lowers human development in the long and short run. The findings recommend that the development and expansion of nuclear energy consumption and trade liberalization are crucial for enhancing the social welfare of OECD nations, which must also lower their public debt levels to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth.
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The continuous trend of increasing the needs for financing the economic sectors puts more and more pressure on the budget revenues that are generated at the government level from taxes and fees, the ...problem of the budget deficit in most states of the world becoming acute as a result of the events that took place on global level in the last few years (COVID-19 pandemic, energy crisis, etc.). Given that the most frequently used source of accessing the necessary financial resources and covering the budget deficit is financing through the public debt, the purpose of the given article is to research the approaches related to the relationship between these two economic phenomena (budget deficit and public debt) and their consequences on the economy of a state. Also, the article presents the level of coverage of the budget deficit of the Republic of Moldova through the public debt.
The purpose of the article is to substantiate the measures regarding diplomatic support of the Ukraine's foreign public debt in the conditions of a critical budget deficit. The analytical basis of ...the proposals are the results of the assessment of trends in the development of international flows of debt capital and the world experience of diplomatic assistance to countries in the process of overcoming their debt crisis. It has been established that the process of international movement of loan capital, in which countries are active participants regardless of the economic development level, is characterized by dynamic trends of value growth. A critical factor in the growth of public debt in Ukraine is the decrease in the value of GDP and the inability to cover the budget deficit as a result of high military and social costs. It has been proved that the minimization of risks associated with the State's dependence on international borrowing is possible under the condition of effective diplomatic support of the external debt at all stages of its formation and maintenance. Ukraine has positive results of diplomatic debt support (favorable conditions for obtaining new loans, partial restructuring of existing debt). However, in the future, under conditions of preservation of current trends, the growth of foreign debt will pose a threat to the economic security of the State. Based on the analysis of alternative options for overcoming the debt crisis, the authors substantiate the expediency of Ukraine's diplomatic request to international creditors for preferential debt restructuring; active cooperation with foreign countries regarding mediation in interaction with international financial organizations in the direction of initiating special programs of financial support for Ukraine. Diplomatic support of foreign public debt should occur simultaneously with the further integration of Ukraine into the European Union, measures to stimulate economic growth in the country, which will contribute to increasing the international investment attractiveness and credit ratings of the national economy.
This article explores the role of SI Stock, Flow and Buffer policies by shedding light on their relationships with active labour market participation and public debt sustainability for a panel of 22 ...European countries from 1997 to 2018. We find SI Stock, Flow and Buffer to be positively correlated with labour market participation and more sustainable public debt. When disaggregating the components of SI, we detect a small degree of heterogeneity, with Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs) negatively associated with the activity rate and positively associated with the employment rate. This result is coherent with the idea that ALMPs make a significant contribution to increasing opportunities for those already in the labour market rather than creating new jobs for those excluded from the labour market, that is, inactive individuals. In this case, our findings indicate that measures to fight social exclusion and out‐of‐work expenditure (Buffer), as well as in‐kind family benefits, are significantly associated with employability for those excluded from the labour market.
We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis builds on theoretical arguments and data considerations in modelling the debt–growth ...relationship as heterogeneous across countries. We investigate the debt–growth nexus adopting linear and non-linear specifications, employing novel methods and diagnostics from the time-series literature adapted for use in the panel. We find some support for a negative relationship between public debt and long-run growth across countries, but no evidence for a similar, let alone common, debt threshold within countries.
•We investigate the relationship between public debt and long-run growth in a large sample of countries.•We model the potential nonlinearity within and across countries in the debt–growth relationship.•We use novel methods to take into account parameter heterogeneity and cross-section dependence.•We find support for a negative relationship between debt and growth across countries, but not for a common debt threshold.
As an important source of local fiscal revenue, will enterprise tax be affected by local government debt? What role do the government's tax collection and management motives and behaviors play in ...this effect? By investigating the impact of local government debt on the actual tax burden of enterprises, this study shows that local governments have a trade-off of tax collection in the process of resolving the debt repayment pressure. The study finds that, in general, the expansion of local government debt has increased the actual tax burden of enterprises, which is mainly reflected in non-state-owned enterprises and enterprises that are collected and managed by the local tax department. The results of the mechanism test show that local debt pressure will encourage local governments to adjust the intensity of tax collection and tax incentives, and then increase the level of tax burden of enterprises in the jurisdiction. Furthermore, the heterogeneity test that distinguishes the institutional environment shows that there are significant differences in the taxation behavior of local governments and the impact of the corporate tax burden in different regions. Specifically, the strict tax behavior of local governments is more significant in regions with better institutional environment, while regions with worse institutional environment, due to the lack of market competitiveness, are more inclined to provide a relaxed tax collection environment to enterprises in their jurisdiction, so as to stabilize the tax base and resolve debts through long-term tax growth. In the context of unbalanced regional development, this study provides empirical evidence that the expansion of local debt affects the taxation behavior of local governments, and then affects the actual tax burden of enterprises in the jurisdiction, which is helpful to understand the government behavior during the transition period of developing countries, and provides policy implications for improving the public debt management system, creating a fair tax environment, and promoting high-quality economic growth.
One of the main arguments given by the monetary and political authorities for refusing to discuss the proposals for the resolution of the Covid-19 debts held by the European Central Bank is that this ...would violate both its statute and its mandate. One dependent on the other. No need therefore to suggest proposing to acquire, in return for the cancellation of past debts, the means of financing the consequences of the ecological crisis by new debts replacing old ones. One hundred and fifty European economists have just done so in a widely distributed and commented forum. What was opposed, among many other political and financial authorities, the President of the ECB. According to Christine Lagarde, whose remarks were very widely and immediately reproduced in almost all the media, these protesters, these "arsonists" according to a Swiss newspaper, would waste their time and they would do better to debate the use of the funds thus provided thanks to this public debt.
Forecasting external public debt under conditions of uncertainty is important as it allows the country to respond adequately to economic and financial challenges, promotes efficient management of ...financial resources, formation of a stable financial policy and ensures the country's external debt security, which are critical elements for ensuring economic sustainability and sustainable development. The article's main purpose is to critically analyze and apply existing time-series forecasting methodologies to determine the future values of Ukraine's external public debt in conditions of uncertainty caused by the still unresolved consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and russia's invasion and full-scale war in Ukraine. Using three forecasting methods, namely trendline extrapolation, exponential smoothing, and autoregressive and moving average models, the paper forecasts the volume of external public debt until 2029 and presents a graphical representation of the debt dynamics from 2011 to 2029. The most pessimistic forecast for the growth of external public debt was revealed when applying the method of data extrapolation based on the trendline. A comparative analysis of the forecast values for the three forecasting methods has revealed common trends in the growth of public debt, as well as the key advantages and disadvantages inherent in each model. Importantly, the article emphasizes the common risks identified in forecasting Ukraine's external debt using time series analysis models, including the problem of achieving only short-term forecasting accuracy and insufficient flexibility taking into account complex and unexpected changes that may arise in conditions of uncertainty and economic instability. The results of the study provide valuable information for policymakers and stakeholders trying to navigate the complexities of managing external public debt under uncertainty.
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