It has been seen in literature that shadow economic activities is a determinant of tourism. In the background of poor enforcement of law and incidence of corruption, it has been hypothesized that ...tourism development might be a determinant of shadow economic activities. In this study,
we analyze how tourist arrivals and development of shadow economy are associated in Thailand, following a frequency-domain causality analysis framework. Through wavelet coherence, it has been found that there exists comovement between tourist arrivals and development of shadow economy in the
short run, while the long-run coherence can be seen during the posttsunami period. By employing waveletbased causality analysis, bidirectional causal association has also been found between tourist arrivals and development of shadow economy across different frequency levels. In order to promote
sustainable tourism, the government should have a control over the black-market activities, and encourage people-public-private partnerships to enhance the informal economy.
Given the increase in the informal economy in developing countries economies, a better understanding of the effect of the informal economy on environmental degradation is essential for policy makers. ...The aim of this study is to examine the impact of the informal economy (IFE) on the ecological footprint (EFP) in Saudi Arabia during the period 1981-2017. An autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was used to test the long-term relationship between the examined variables. It determined which variable was causally related to the other using Granger causality analysis. The long-run coefficients of ARDL showed that the IFE had a positive influence on ecological footprint in Saudi Arabia in the long run. In contrast, EFP can increase the informal economy. The Granger causality based on VECM approach shows bi-directional causality between EFP and IFE in the short run and the long run. Therefore, the findings of this study can help policy makers in Saudi Arabia and a number of countries with a large informal sector to better understand the role of governance in reducing the IFE in order to improve the environmental quality.
This paper sheds light on the role of informal economy, defined as all economic activities that are hidden from official authorities for various reasons, in financial development convergence. Using ...panel data from 156 countries over the period of 1991–2017, we find that financial development (as measured by credit as share of GDP) tends to converge across countries over time, particularly when informality is lower. As the size of informal economy becomes larger, however, financial development convergence weakens, and eventually can turn out to be divergence. This finding suggests that policies addressing informality can help countries with lower levels of financial development catch up with the countries with more developed financial systems. It also has implications for the evolution of cross-country income differences, considering the role of financial development in economic performance. In the last part of the paper, we find evidence consistent with this. The results show that higher informality is also associated with weaker income convergence across countries over time.
•Financial development (as measured by credit) converges across countries over time.•However, higher informality hinders this convergence process.•This has implications for the evolution of cross-country income differences.•Higher informality is also associated with weaker income convergence.
This paper analyzes a simple model that captures the relationship between institutional quality, the shadow economy, and corruption. It shows that an improvement in institutional quality reduces the ...shadow economy and affects the corruption market. The exact relationship between corruption and institutional quality is, however, ambiguous and depends on the relative effectiveness of institutional quality in the shadow and corruption markets. The analytics also show that the shadow economy and corruption are substitutes. The predictions of the model are empirically tested and confirmed.
Organized violence, 1989–2019 Pettersson, Therése; Öberg, Magnus
Journal of peace research,
07/2020, Letnik:
57, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The defeat of Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq has pushed the number of ...fatalities, almost 75,600, to its lowest level since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. However, this de-escalation in Syria is countered by increased violence in Africa, as IS and other transnational jihadist groups have relocated their efforts there. Furthermore, violence has continued to increase in Afghanistan; UCDP recorded more than 31,200 fatalities in Afghanistan in 2019, which accounts for 40% of all fatalities from organized violence across the globe. The general decline in fatalities from organized violence does not correspond with the trend in the number of active conflicts, which remained on a historically high level. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2019, including seven wars. Twenty-eight state-based conflicts involved IS (Islamic State), al-Qaida or their affiliates. In the past decade, conflicts involving these transnational jihadist groups have driven many of the trends in organized violence.
The Chinese government has long been suspected of hiring as many as 2 million people to surreptitiously insert huge numbers of pseudonymous and other deceptive writings into the stream of real social ...media posts, as if they were the genuine opinions of ordinary people. Many academics, and most journalists and activists, claim that these so-called 50c party posts vociferously argue for the government’s side in political and policy debates. As we show, this is also true of most posts openly accused on social media of being 50c. Yet almost no systematic empirical evidence exists for this claim or, more importantly, for the Chinese regime’s strategic objective in pursuing this activity. In the first large-scale empirical analysis of this operation, we show how to identify the secretive authors of these posts, the posts written by them, and their content. We estimate that the government fabricates and posts about 448 million social media comments a year. In contrast to prior claims, we show that the Chinese regime’s strategy is to avoid arguing with skeptics of the party and the government, and to not even discuss controversial issues. We show that the goal of this massive secretive operation is instead to distract the public and change the subject, as most of these posts involve cheerleading for China, the revolutionary history of the Communist Party, or other symbols of the regime. We discuss how these results fit with what is known about the Chinese censorship program and suggest how they may change our broader theoretical understanding of “common knowledge” and information control in authoritarian regimes.
Purpose. To develop a model of investigating the link between the level of shadow economy and indicators of social development of the country. Methodology. The study of the relationship between the ...analyzed indicators was conducted using general and special research methods. The established hypotheses were tested using VAR/VEC modeling. Dickey-Fuller test, the Phillips-Perron test, Joansen test are used in the work. Findings. The paper identifies the risks of the shadow economy for social indicators of macroeconomic stability. Based on the analysis of the countrys social development indicators, indicators were identified that are most sensitive to changes in the level of the shadow economy which are: Gini coefficient, average income ratio of 10% of the richest to 10% of the poorest, average income ratio of 20% of the richest to 20% of the poorest sections of the population, Human Development Index, gross average wage. The EU countries and Ukraine are identified as the statistical base of the study and the assessment period is 20052020. The results of modeling proved the relationship between the level of shadow economy and indicator of social development. Originality. The approach to assessing the relationship between the level of the shadow economy and indicators of social development of the country by considering the indicators that most fully characterize the level of social protection and material well-being of the population has been improved. Practical value. The scientific contribution of the paper is that existing research on the impact of shadow economy on the level of social development of the countries remains fragmented, as well as studies assessing its effect on the macroeconomic stability. The impulse response function constructed by the authors may provide some insight into better understanding of the indicators of social development, the most sensitive to the shadow economy shocks. The results of estimation can be used for practical or scientific purposes.
We use a randomized controlled trial to study the response of poor households in rural Kenya to unconditional cash transfers from the NGO GiveDirectly. The transfers differ from other programs in ...that they are explicitly unconditional, large, and concentrated in time. We randomized at both the village and household levels; furthermore, within the treatment group, we randomized recipient gender (wife versus husband), transfer timing (lump-sum transfer versus monthly installments), and transfer magnitude (US$404 PPP versus US$1,525 PPP). We find a strong consumption response to transfers, with an increase in household monthly consumption from $158 PPP to $193 PPP nine months after the transfer began. Transfer recipients experience large increases in psychological well-being. We find no overall effect on levels of the stress hormone cortisol, although there are differences across some subgroups. Monthly transfers are more likely than lump-sum transfers to improve food security, whereas lump-sum transfers are more likely to be spent on durables, suggesting that households face savings and credit constraints. Together, these results suggest that unconditional cash transfers have significant impacts on economic outcomes and psychological well-being.
We empirically analyze the pricing of political uncertainty, guided by a theoretical model of government policy choice. To isolate political uncertainty, we exploit its variation around national ...elections and global summits. We find that political uncertainty is priced in the equity option market as predicted by theory. Options whose lives span political events tend to be more expensive. Such options provide valuable protection against the price, variance, and tail risks associated with political events. This protection is more valuable in a weaker economy and amid higher political uncertainty. The effects of political uncertainty spill over across countries.
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