Road freight transport on hilly routes represents a significant challenge for the advancement of fuel cell electric trucks because of the high-performance requirements for fuel consumption, vehicle ...lifetime, and battery charge control. Therefore, it is essential to optimize the vehicle design and energy management, which greatly influence the driving performance and total cost of ownership. This paper focuses on the cost-optimal design and energy management of fuel cell electric trucks, considering five key influencing factors: powertrain component sizing, driving cycle, vehicle weight, component degradation, and market prices. The cost optimization relies on a novel predictive energy management scheme based on dynamic programming and the systematic calibration of control parameters. The paper analyzes the simulation results to highlight three main findings for fuel cell electric trucks: 1) cost-optimal energy management is essential to define the best trade-off between fuel consumption and component degradation; 2) the total cost of ownership is significantly influenced by component sizing, driving cycles, vehicle weight, and market prices; 3) predictive energy management is highly beneficial in challenging road topographies for substantial cost-saving and lower component size requirements.
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•Investigation on total cost of ownership of heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicles.•Optimal vehicle design and control in demanding routes for performance requirements.•Energy management optimization for minimum ownership cost in realistic driving scenarios.•Trade-off analysis between fuel consumption and expected powertrain components life.•Significant benefits of predictive energy management in challenging road topographies.
•Sizing electrified powertrains to be embedded in a fleet of different vehicles by the same car maker.•Minimizing the total-cost-of-ownership of all the vehicles of the car maker in a real-world use ...scenario.•Considering different present and future oriented CO2 emission regulation scenarios.•Considering different powertrain electrification levels.•Plug-in hybrid electrification suggested as the most promising technology for the retained car maker fleet.
Developing effective computer-aided engineering (CAE) tools is currently a compelling need for fostering industrialization and widespread diffusion of electrified road vehicles. A CAE methodology is proposed in this paper for sizing electrified road vehicle powertrains at an overall car maker vehicle fleet level by considering different evaluation criteria involving retail price, compliance with current and future regulatory CO2 emission requirements, drivability, and real-world operative costs. A case study is performed on a group of different vehicle models embedding the same electrified powertrain, and different vehicle electrification levels are assessed. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) is identified as the most robust propulsion system architecture solution considering different sizing targets and 2030 oriented regulatory scenarios. This suggests that, from the perspective of a car maker, investing in research and development and in upgrade of current vehicle production facilities to propose highly electrified vehicles in the market can be a more strategic and successful approach than a conservative strategy which would restrain the economic investments and limit the overall electrification level of all vehicle models. The considerably higher retail price that users are required to pay when purchasing a fleet of plug-in HEVs may in fact be paid off and eventually reveal beneficial in a long term given the avoidance of paying a regulatory CO2 sanction and the consistent reduction in the monthly operative costs in terms of fuel and electricity. Vehicle designers can implement the presented CAE methodology for assessing electrified vehicle sizing options at the overall car maker level based on realistic use case scenarios and different potential CO2 emission regulation scenarios.
In order to evaluate the current and future prospects of electric cars’ in Italy, we develop a probabilistic total cost of ownership (TCO) model, which includes stochastic and non-stochastic ...variables, vehicle usage and contextual assumptions. We find that electric cars are currently not cost-competitive in Italy with the conventional petrol or diesel cars. However, they are cost-competitive with the hybrid electric cars when more than 10,000 km are annually traveled. With incentivizing policies (a €5,000 subsidy and a €400 parking and access fee annual savings), currently in place in a limited number of Italian Regions and cities, electric cars perform in monetary terms better than hybrid electric cars and some diesel cars, especially if they are charged at home. However, electric cars are expected to gain market share in the year 2025 if fuel prices follow past trends, even without subsidies. The driving force could be a drop in their retail price, thanks to declining battery pack costs, and a possible revision of the taxes on diesel.
•Develops a probabilistic total cost of ownership model for Italy.•Electric cars are currently not cost-competitive with conventional cars.•With incentivizing policies electric cars perform better than hybrid electric cars.•Electric cars are expected to gain market share in 2025 without subsidies.
The total cost of ownership (TCO) of trucks is known as one of the main decision-making factors by logistics operators for adopting alternative powertrains such as battery electric trucks (BETs). In ...this study, we develop a very detailed levelized cost of driving (LCOD) model to analyse the TCO of BETs and conventional trucks (CTs) in medium and heavy-duty truck weight classes. The model has methodological advancements such as developing opportunity costs for charging activities, using a detailed operational time calculation, and analysing the optimum driving ranges or battery sizing. By implementing an extensive sensitivity analysis of LCOD for CTs and BETs over 43 variables, it is revealed that the key parameters such as operational driving range, battery pack price, state of charge of battery, driver cost, “mid-shift” charging power, ambient temperature, opportunity charging, and driving speed have major impacts on the cost competitiveness of BETs vs. CTs. In addition, the impact of battery and charging technology improvements as well as designing optimum driving ranges are examined in three different operational trip profiles (urban, short-haul or regional, long-haul). The result shows that: 1) BETs in urban trip profiles with the current and/or short-term battery technology might be economically viable alternatives for CTs without the help of the policy measures, 2) BETs with below 40 t gross vehicle weight and the long-term improvements in battery technology in all the operational trip profiles might be economically viable alternatives for CTs without the help of the policy measures, and 3) the implementation of policy measures affecting the relative costs of CTs and BETs and development of fast-charging facilities would be needed to support the above 40 t BETs in short-haul and long-haul trips for the current and/or short-term as well as mid-term battery technologies.
•Methodology for total cost of ownership and levelized cost of driving of battery electric trucks.•Different levels of battery and charging technology improvement.•Different operational trip profiles (urban, short-haul or regional, long-haul).•Designing optimum driving range or battery sizing and cost competitiveness of battery electric trucks.•Opportunity costs for charging activities and operational time calculations.
The literature available on alternative fuel heavy-duty trucks often focuses on greenhouse gas emissions and total cost of ownership assessments, drawing an insightful but incomplete picture of the ...best solutions for each context. Using Iceland as case study, this paper attempts to provide a broader perspective by including energy security, technical feasibility and air pollutant emissions in the assessment. AFLEET and GREET are used to calculate the life cycle emissions and the total cost of ownership of 10 heavy-duty powertrains using representative vehicle categories in Iceland: regional and delivery trucks. The technical feasibility of battery-electric and hydrogen trucks is addressed in terms of battery/tank required capacity for representative fuel efficiency values, while the resources available in Iceland are used to determine the local fuel production capacity and the potential impact of each alternative fuel pathway on energy security. The results suggest that battery-electric trucks present the highest environmental and economic benefits, although the limited range of current battery technology implies a high penetration only in delivery trucks. Hydrogen and compressed natural gas pathways present attractive results for regional trucks, although their implementation is limited due to high life cycle costs and insufficient feedstock capacity. Renewable diesel stands out as a potential solution to fill the gap for regional trucks as it presents overall satisfactory results throughout all dimensions addressed. The results suggest that a 100% alternative fuel heavy-duty fleet energy demand could be met using local resources in Iceland.
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•The transition towards alternative fuel heavy duty vehicles in Iceland is studied.•Nine alternative fuel heavy duty powertrains are assessed in LCA and TCO terms.•The link between alternative fuel production and energy security is discussed.•BEV stands out as the most attractive pathway for both vehicle categories.•Iceland could meet 100% of HDV energy demand using domestically produced fuels.
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a surge in online shopping and home deliveries, driving the demand for delivery vehicles. Last-mile delivery vehicles are one of the rampant carbon dioxide emitters, ...with zero-direct emission alternatives as the glaringly obvious solution to this problem. To address this issue, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the total cost of ownership (TCO) and life cycle environmental impacts of three types of light commercial vehicles (LCVs): internal combustion engine, battery electric (BE), and hydrogen fuel cell (FC) electric LCVs in Germany and California. In this study, we present the first analysis of the life cycle impacts of an FC-LCV with a lower fuel cell system power but a larger traction battery capacity referred to as a "Mid-FC" vehicle configuration. In addition, the research establishes various scenarios to examine the effect of a greener electricity grid and hydrogen produced from water electrolysis on the overall LCV life cycle impacts. Results suggest that BE LCVs are already cost-competitive in both the studied regions. Replacing a diesel LCV with a BE alternative can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15%–48% over the LCV's lifetime and up to 69% in a low-carbon grid scenario. The study also found that a Mid-FC LCV has lower environmental impacts than an FC counterpart if the hydrogen is produced via water electrolysis powered by low-carbon electricity. These findings provide critical insights for fleet operators seeking to balance cost-effectiveness and environmental sustainability in their LCV selection.
•Total cost of ownership study on electrifying last-mile delivery fleets.•Battery electric vehicles are cost-competitive with diesel alternatives.•Electrifying vehicles cut more fuel costs in California than in Germany.•Extensive LCA study with scenario analyses for fleet electrification.•Last-mile battery alternatives considerably cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The transport sector accounts for massive global CO2 emissions. To achieve low-carbon transport systems, promoting electric vehicles (EVs) is a crucial strategy of worldwide countries. Since the ...current rapid growth of EVs, the total cost of ownership (TCO) of EVs has been studied among countries promoting EVs in their transport sector. This study presents TCO models of EVs compared to a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. The EVs considered in this study include a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), a plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV), and a battery electric vehicle (BEV). The cost models consist of capital and operating costs, i.e., depreciation, maintenance, tax, insurance, loan interest, battery, and energy consumption costs. All data are obtained from real-world testing in Thailand. The TCO models are analyzed based on the average distance traveled, 20,000 km/year for over 15 years driving in urban areas. The results show that the TCO of ICE, HEV, PHEV, and BEV is 61.19, 54.94, 55.94, and 60.89 (1,000 USD), respectively. The lifetime TCO ratio for each holding year is also proposed. The HEV and PHEV seem to be suitable choices without any BEV support policies in Thailand. Additionally, using the TCO models and presenting as a 15-year lifetime TCO ratio, two case scenarios of different EV support policies are assumed, i.e., a government subsidy, or a retailer discount and battery price discount. Direct support towards the vehicles’ purchasing prices significantly decreases the TCO. The knowledge from this study could be helpful for consumers, manufacturer product planners, and government policymakers.
•Approach to solve the integrated electric vehicle and crew scheduling problem.•Influence of vehicle and crew scheduling on the design of electric buses.•Comparing electric bus concepts taking into ...account local conditions.•Case study investigation for a real-world bus route.•Most cost-effective electric bus concept depends on the crew scheduling assumptions.
Encouraged by international efforts to reduce greenhouse gases and local emissions, many public transport operators are converting their fleets to battery-powered electric buses. Public transport operators can choose between different electric bus concepts, with the total cost of ownership being the most important decision criterion. The associated strategic decisions regarding charging strategy, vehicle concept, and charging infrastructure have a significant impact on the operational planning of the electric buses.
Motivated by this, this paper aims to analyze the interactions between electrification and operational planning, especially vehicle scheduling and crew scheduling. This allows us to make a more comprehensive comparison of different electrification concepts. Prior work has addressed the impact of electrification on vehicle scheduling but has neglected the interactions with crew scheduling. Crew scheduling dominates operational costs and planning for many public transport operators and must therefore be considered in all strategic decisions. For this reason, in this work we focused on integrated electric vehicle and crew scheduling problem. This allows us to calculate the total cost of ownership of different electric bus concepts under better representation of local conditions. We deal with the electric vehicle and crew scheduling problem with a metaheuristic based on Adaptive Large Neighborhood Search. We tested the developed methodology for a real-world bus route. Our results indicate that the constraints for crew scheduling significantly impact the total cost of ownership and the required number of vehicles of the different electrification concepts. Our case study suggests that the choice of the most cost-effective concept depends significantly on crew scheduling constraints. These findings imply that crew scheduling constraints should be considered as part of the local framework for bus fleet electrification.
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•Bus life cycle models often neglect service frequency, capacity & range.•Novel framework assesses risk & uncertainty of fleet life cycle impacts.•Fleet analysis shows lower chance of ...reducing GHGs from electric buses.•Double-deck hybrids most effective at saving life cycle costs and GHGs.•Framework supports decision-making process for implementing technologies.
Introducing alternative bus fleet technologies requires investigation into life cycle impacts, risks and benefits. Previous modelling approaches comparatively assess individual vehicle energy demands and life cycle impacts, assuming alternative technologies can fulfil identical life cycle functions to a diesel baseline. This assumption neglects the influence that service frequency, capacity and range limitations have on daily operations and fleet and infrastructure sizing. The goal of this study was to develop a framework to investigate bus fleet operation in terms of the risk and uncertainty of an alternative drivetrain technology’s ability to mitigate life cycle costs and greenhouse gas emissions. Probabilistic simulation enabled risk and uncertainty quantification of diesel, micro-hybrid, mild-hybrid and battery-electric fleet scenarios for a UK case study. The fleet analysis approach revealed decreased potential to reduce life cycle costs and greenhouse gas emissions from battery-electric buses. Compared to a baseline single-deck diesel fleet at low risk levels, the micro-hybrid double-deck fleet delivers the largest life cycle cost savings (18.7%). The largest life cycle greenhouse gas emissions savings come from the mild-hybrid lithium-titanate single-deck fleet (20.8%). Double-deck micro and mild hybrid fleets are the most effective at saving both life cycle costs and greenhouse gas emissions. The modelling approach adds a novel probabilistic capability for making comparative fleet-wide assertions, supporting the decision-making process for implementing new sustainable fleet technologies.
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