The call for concerted global action against the climate change impact is well heard. 191 countries would communicate their progressive plans through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to the ...United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as signatories to the Paris Agreement. Harbour crafts as part of the larger maritime ecosystem, can significantly contribute to reduced emissions. In this paper, HyForce, the next generation 2 MW hydrogen powered virtual tugboat was designed for a feasibility assessment for her techno-economic and environmental footprint to replace existing diesel-powered tugboats. The study compares the use of hydrogen fuel cells and an internal combustion engine to perform the same dynamic load profile for a typical tugboat mission. The results from the study show that a signpost for commercial competitiveness of HyForce is influenced primarily by the projected liquid hydrogen cost of 5.10 USD per kg in 2040 with a 2,000 USD/kW capital cost for the fuel cells.
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from a “well-to-wake” analysis for fossil-based hydrogen and renewable hydrogen supply chains were conducted, and the results show 26.9% and 75.6% reduction, respectively, compared to similar tug running on diesel fuel.
•Feasibility assessment of a hydrogen – fuelled harbour tug.•The use of hydrogen PEM fuel cells and an internal combustion engine for marine tug application.•Total cost of ownership comparative analysis against a traditional diesel tug for 2030 and 2040.•Signposts for hydrogen landed cost breakeven point for commercial viability.•Well-to-wake GHG emissions for different sources of hydrogen.
•New bi-level models are developed for an electric-and-fuel automotive supply chain.•Customers are classified as low, medium, and high-usage based on the usage pattern.•Optimal pricing and free ...periodic maintenance service decisions are determined.•Vehicles demand is estimated using comparing the total cost of vehicle ownership.•The growth rate of energy prices affects electric vehicle purchasing probability.
Although subsidies have had significant impacts on the electric vehicle (EV) market share, many governments have planned to eliminate subsidies. There is a concern that unsubsidized EVs reduce the EV market share, significantly. However, purchasing an EV instead of a fuel vehicle (FV) might impose a lower total cost of ownership (TCO) on customers, depending on their vehicle usage. In this case, supply chains could optimize their decisions considering which vehicle is affordable for each customer class from the view of TCO. This study investigates optimal pricing and free periodic maintenance service (FPMS) decisions in a two-stage electric-and-fuel automotive supply chain, considering TCO to estimate vehicle market shares under customer classification with different vehicle usage patterns. Two bi-level models are developed and solved through Karush-Kuhn-Tucker equations and a reformulation-and-decomposition algorithm. Sensitivity analyses are performed considering various scenarios on energy prices and ownership periods. Results indicate that the high-usage customers are more likely to purchase an EV if the ownership period is the same for all classes. However, if low-usage customers keep the vehicle for a longer period than the others, they are more likely to purchase an EV. Both providing FPMSs by the manufacturer instead of the retailer and increasing the fuel price over time with a higher rate, compared with the electricity price and the inflation rate, improve the EV market share and reduce the total fuel consumption and emissions. Investment to produce EVs is not economical for a high price of electricity while having low fuel prices.
The withdrawal of the purchase subsidy and the spread of Covid-19 have had a significant effect on Chinese consumers' purchase intentions regarding electric vehicles (EVs). Therefore, it is ...worthwhile analyzing the factors influencing EV purchase decisions from the consumer's perspective. We use a consumer-oriented model to analyze the total cost of ownership over 5- and 10-year holding periods in China for internal combustion engine vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). We include consumer usage habits and non-monetary costs to reflect consumer characteristics. The results show that the small BEVs will achieve parity before 2025, while medium-sized and large BEVs will do so around 2030. Regarding PHEVs, large and medium-sized models show better performance. Even though BEV and PHEV purchase costs will fall by 31%–36% and 16%–18%, respectively, between 2020 and 2030, most EV models will still not reach purchase cost parity by 2030. Incentive policies will have a significant impact, and oil prices are likely to have a huge impact on the time until EVs reach parity. Thus, policy-makers should introduce incentive policies aimed at ensuring a smooth transition to the electrification of China's vehicle fleet.
•We model the total cost of ownership (TCO) of EV in future China.•The parity-time of small BEV TCO to gasoline vehicle is before 2025.•PHEVs show better TCO performance in medium and large size of models.•Policies and oil price affect EV's cost advantage on gasoline vehicle.
In this paper a hierarchical energy management strategy design methodology for total cost of ownership management at fleet level is proposed. The decisions are taken from the fleet level point of ...view, to optimize the whole fleet based on the hierarchical decision maker and management, composed of three levels. The outer part is the offline route-to-bus data exploitation and decision maker, aiming to establish the dynamic programming optimization design. The next level is the offline optimization bus-to-route. Based on the previous decision, the neuro-fuzzy learns from the global optimal solutions. Finally, the trained fuzzy-logic strategy is used to manage the online operation. This fleet is re-organized and the online operation energy management strategy is updated throughout the bus lifetime. These decisions are made based on the evaluated battery lifetime of the fleet, with the aim to meet the planned total cost of ownership requirements. The total cost of ownership for the bus-to-route energy management strategy, has been improved a 7.65 % at fleet level against a charge-sustaining charge-depleting strategy. In the route-to-bus fleet re-organization and update, up to 5.51 % total cost of ownership improvement at fleet level has been obtained against not applying the fleet management.
•A hierarchical three layer fleet management strategy is proposed for the fleet total cost of ownership improvement.•The outer level establishes the optimization design and conducts fleet re-organization based on the buses battery state of health.•The intermediate level is dedicated to the real-time energy management strategy design based on neuro-fuzzy technique learning from the dynamic programming optimal operation.•The inner level online operation is based on a trained fuzzy-logic strategy that is updated throughout the bus lifetime.
As firms from across all manufacturing sectors are rethinking their outsourcing and offshoring strategies, there is the potential for a manufacturing renaissance in the U.S. The findings from this ...case study suggest that the current manufacturing relocation shift is not perceived by manufacturers as a long-term business strategy (as outsourcing has been). As such, the results suggest that manufacturing relocation decisions based exclusively on models such as total cost of ownership (TCO) will not deliver anticipated near-term costs savings. In addition to TCO, firms must have access to information concerning the complexity of the outsourced manufacturer’s manufacturing and supply chain processes in order to fully evaluate the ‘as-is’ outsourced function against ‘to-be’ manufacturing relocation opportunities.
While electric vehicles (EV) can perform better than conventional vehicles from an environmental standpoint, consumers perceive them to be more expensive due to their higher capital cost. Recent ...studies calculated the total cost of ownership (TCO) to evaluate the complete cost for the consumer, focusing on individual vehicle classes, powertrain technologies, or use cases. To provide a comprehensive overview, we built a probabilistic simulation model broad enough to capture most of a national market. Our findings indicate that the comparative cost efficiency of EV increases with the consumer's driving distance and is higher for small than for large vehicles. However, our sensitivity analysis shows that the exact TCO is subject to the development of vehicle and operating costs and thus uncertain. Although the TCO of electric vehicles may become close to or even lower than that of conventional vehicles by 2025, our findings add evidence to past studies showing that the TCO does not reflect how consumers make their purchase decision today. Based on these findings, we discuss policy measures that educate consumers about the TCO of different vehicle types based on their individual preferences. In addition, measures improving the charging infrastructure and further decreasing battery cost are discussed.
•Calculates the total cost of ownership across competing vehicle technologies.•Uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyse distributions and probabilities of outcomes.•Contains a comprehensive assessment across the main vehicle classes and use cases.•Indicates that cost efficiency of technology depends on vehicle class and use case.•Derives specific policy measures to facilitate electric vehicle diffusion.
This paper analyses how the total cost of ownership (TCO) of electric light commercial vehicles change with the number of kilometers driven, the period of ownership, the residual value of the ...battery, and different fiscal incentives, as well as a kilometer charging scheme. This paper demonstrates that a kilometer-based charge and reduced fiscal incentives for conventional vans can drastically improve the TCO of electric commercial light duty vehicles. Second life applications for batteries could also have a strong impact on the TCO of electric vans as they could retrieve a better residual value. Finally, the paper shows that the TCO of electric vans can be optimized based on its usage. These are important findings given the ambitious objective of carbon free city logistics by 2030. Adoption of electric vans remains very low and this paper offers an up to date analysis to stimulate the electrification of light commercial vehicles, a segment that is growing fast in city logistics.
•A monopolistic durable goods manufacturer that also provides after-sales products and services through her designated retailer.•Customers consider Total Cost of Ownership when making product ...purchase decisions, but with limited information regarding future costs.•The manufacturer extracts all her profit from the after-sales services and gives the product away for free.•The extent of warranty coverage does not change the manufacturer’s profit or the consumer surplus.
We study a monopolistic durable goods manufacturer that also provides a base warranty and after-sales services to her customers through a designated retailer. The customers evaluate the total cost of ownership of the product when they make the purchasing decision. However, they can foresee the future costs only to a certain extent. In this setting, we find the manufacturer’s product price decision followed by the spare parts wholesale and retail price decisions made by the manufacturer and the retailer, respectively. As a benchmark, we study the centralized system where the manufacturer and the retailer are integrated. We also study an alternative model; i.e., a third party model, where the manufacturer is not active in the after-sales business and does not offer a warranty, and these services are carried out by an independent retailer. We find that when the manufacturer controls her after-sales channel, she gives away the product for free and extracts all her profit from the after-sales services. In fact, the extent of the warranty coverage is irrelevant, and does not affect the manufacturer’s profit or the consumer surplus. Especially when customers are myopic with very limited foresight into future costs, the manufacturer will prefer to control her after-sales market. From the customer perspective, however, the third party model tends to be the better choice.
The prevalence of internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) fleets globally has resulted in various environmental issues, such as the emissions of greenhouse gases, reliance on imported petroleum ...products, significant degradation of air quality, and adverse health impacts on people. To address these challenges, the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is viewed as a sustainable solution. This study analyzed the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of EVs in sub-Saharan Africa to determine if they are viable options for consumers from Tanzania. Contrary to previous studies on the competitive position of EVs that focused on Europe, Asia, and other regions with high EV diffusion, and are more advanced in terms of EV manufacturing capacity and promoting policies, this study focused on Tanzania, a country with low EV diffusion and no EV manufacturing capacity. We compared the economics of electric cars and electric two-wheelers (e2Ws) and their ICE counterparts. The findings show that the TCO per km of electric cars is higher than that of their ICE car counterparts, while the TCO of e2W was less than that of their petroleum counterparts. Importing taxes charged to all vehicles imported into the country significantly hike the upfront cost of EVs. For electric cars, particularly battery electric vehicles, to reach TCO parity with ICE car counterparts, the current import taxes have to be reduced by 40% or more, which is equivalent to removing all import duty or value-added taxes. In this regard, electric cars are still not economically viable for Tanzanian automotive consumers, unless economic incentives are introduced. With EVs being in the early stage in the country, it is recommended to start by promoting e2Ws, which are economically viable for many consumers in the Tanzanian context.
•Taxes charged to the vehicles imported into the country significantly hike the upfront cost of EVs.•The electric 2Ws are economically viable to Tanzanian consumers.•The electric cars are still not economically viable to Tanzanian consumers unless tax incentives are introduced.
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