The 14th thematic volume of International Development Policy provides perspectives through case studies from the global Souths focusing on the challenges and opportunities of governing migration on ...the subnational, national, regional and international levels. Bringing together some thirty authors from Africa, Latin America and Asia, the book explores existing and new policies and frameworks in terms of their successes and best practices, and looks at them through the lens of additional challenges, such as those brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, the rise of nationalisms and an increase in xenophobia. The chapters also take the ‘5 Ps’ approach to sustainable development (people, planet, prosperity, peace and partnerships) and assess how migration policies serve sustainable development in a rapidly evolving context. Contributors are Yousra Abourabi, Gabriela Agosto, Belkis Aracena, Andrea Fernández Benítez, Macarena Chepo, Amanda Coffie, Jonathan Crush, María del Consuelo Dávila Pérez, Dêlidji Eric Degila, Jenny Lind Elmaco, René Leyva Flores, Luisa Feline Freier, Silvia Núñez García, Marcela Pezoa González, Binod Khadria, Ariel González Levaggi, Wei Li, Meixin Liu, Ling Ma, Ratnam Mishra, Daniel Naujoks, Claudia Padilla, Karol Rojas, Fabiana Rubinstein, Yining Tan, Narender Thakur, Gerasimos Tsourapas, Valeria Marina Valle and Jossette Iribarne Wiff.
Theoretical understanding of the thermodynamic controls on tropical cyclone (TC) wind intensity, as well as numerical simulations, implies a positive trend in TC intensity in a warming world. The ...global instrumental record of TC intensity, however, is known to be heterogeneous in both space and time and is generally unsuitable for global trend analysis. To address this, a homogenized data record based on satellite data was previously created for the period 1982–2009. The 28-y homogenized record exhibited increasing global TC intensity trends, but they were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Based on observed trends in the thermodynamic mean state of the tropical environment during this period, however, it was argued that the 28-y period was likely close to, but shorter than, the time required for a statistically significant positive global TC intensity trend to appear. Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979–2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir–Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade.
The present study is designed to analyse the annual rainfall variability and trend in 30 meteorological stations of the Asir region for the period of 1970–2017 using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, ...Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test, trend free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW MK) test, and the innovative trend analysis (ITA). A comparative study among the trend detection techniques was performed using the correlation coefficient. The future rainfall trend based on the historical rainfall pattern was investigated by using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Results of the MK test showed that 20 stations in the study area observed a negative trend, and out of these, nine stations had significant negative trends at the significance level of 0.01. The findings of the MMK test showed that 23 stations recorded negative trends, and out of these, 18 stations had significant negative trends at the significance level of 0.01. Based on the findings of the TFPW-MK test, 21 stations observed a negative trend, and among these, 10 stations had significant negative trends at the significance of 0.01. ITA detected 25 stations observing a negative trend, and out of these, 18 stations had significant negative trends at the significance level of 0.01. Based on the findings of the tests and their performance, the MMK test appeared as the best performing technique among the MK test family, while ITA appeared as the best trend detection technique among the four techniques because it outperformed (
p
< 0.01) the others. Results of DFA showed that 23 stations (10 were significant) had recorded declining future rainfall trends based on past trends. The results of the present study would help the planners and policy makers to make accurate and easy decisions on irrigation, climatic, and water resource management in the Asir region of Saudi Arabia.
Trend detection in hydro-climatological time series is a prime task under the context of climate changes. Rainfall is a key component of the water cycle and its variability can profoundly influence ...agriculture, ecosystems and water resource management. In this paper, an innovative trend analysis (ITA) method with a significant test is used for rainfall trend detection at 14 stations in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) during 1961–2016. The trends are separately evaluated for low (<10th percentile), medium (10th–90th percentile) and high (>90th percentile) rainfall at the annual and seasonal scales. The slope and significance of the rainfall trends derived from the ITA method are compared with those from the classical trend analysis methods Theil-Sen approach and Mann-Kendall test, respectively. The ITA shows significant increasing trends at the 99% confidence level in annual rainfall at all stations. While the same significant increasing trends are identified for summer and winter, decreasing trends dominate in spring and autumn. Contrasting trends are found for extreme rainfall with strong increasing trends in high rainfall in summer and winter and decreasing trends in low rainfall in spring and autumn. The results of the ITA confirmed by the classical trend analysis methods call for more attention to the risk management of flood in extreme seasons and drought in transitional seasons across the YRD region.
•Trends analysis of rainfall across the Yangtze River Delta is performed by the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method.•Separate trends in low, medium and high rainfall are quantitatively calculated based on the ITA method.•Some advantages of the ITA method to classical trend methods (Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen approach) are presented.•High rainfall in summer showed significant increase while low rainfall in spring and autumn exhibited decrease.
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