Several studies have identified a recent lengthening of the dry season over the southern Amazon during the last three decades. Some explanations to this lengthening suggest the influence of changes ...in the regional circulation over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, whereas others point to the influence of vegetation changes over the Amazon rainforest. This study aims to understand the implications of more frequent long dry seasons in this forest on atmospheric moisture transport toward northern South America and the Caribbean region. Using a semi-Langrangian model for water vapor tracking, results indicate that longer dry seasons in the southern Amazon relate to reductions of water vapor content over the southern and eastern Amazon basin, due to significant reductions of evaporation and recycled precipitation rates in these regions, especially during the transition from dry to wet conditions in the southern Amazon. On the other hand, longer dry seasons also relate to enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Caribbean and northern South America regions, mainly due to increased contributions of water vapor from oceanic regions and the increase of surface moisture convergence over the equatorial region. This highlights the importance of understanding the relative role of regional circulation and local surface conditions on modulating water vapor transport toward continental regions.
In this study, the long-term trend of water vapor over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in boreal summer is investigated by using observation and reanalysis data from 1979 to 2019. The historical experiment ...simulations of 19 models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated, and the future variation tendency under four emission scenarios is projected. The results indicate that the water vapor content and the net water vapor budget over the TP show notable increasing trends, which are mainly manifested by a significant increase in the net water vapor import and a significant decrease in the water vapor export on the eastern boundary of the TP. This is mainly due to an anomalous anticyclone from Lake Baikal to the Mongolian Plateau. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble can well simulate the variation characteristics of the TP net water vapor budget. The projection results indicate that by the end of the twenty-first century, the water vapor content, the net water vapor import and precipitation over the TP will increase. Under a high-emissions scenario and compared with the current period (1991–2014), these three variables will increase by 47.99%, 59.77% and 18.59% in the long term (2081–2100), respectively. The significant enhancement of meridional water vapor transport over the northern TP may be the main reason for the increase in humidity over the TP.
This study investigates the projected changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) water vapor over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region based on satellite records, numerical ...simulations using variable-resolution global climate model focused over south Asia (HIST-natural and anthropogenic forcing in the historical period, and FUT-following RCP4.5 in future), and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets. The simulations generally reproduced the seasonal cycle in the UTLS water vapor and regional water vapor maximum. With progressive warming in future, excessive upper tropospheric moistening is noted over the ASM region in far-future (2070–2095) climate against the HIST climate (1980–2005) with water vapor mixing ratio increasing to ~ 7.5 ppmv relative to ~ 5 ppmv noted in the HIST. It is further noted that projected changes in water vapor are linked to anomalous warming (~ 1–4 K) in the upper tropospheric layers juxtaposed with zonally elongated ASM anticyclone and enhanced water vapor flux divergence by amplifications in rotational winds. Further, the simulations indicate robust increase in ASM upper tropospheric water vapor as compared to those at mid- and lower- troposphere in accordance with the Clausius–Clapeyron temperature dependence of moisture response to warming and amplified troposphere warming with altitude. A simple comparison between the ASM and the entire globe indicates that upper tropospheric water vapor-temperature relationship has a similar response, however, the projected variability in temperature and moisture is significantly larger (about twice) over the ASM region highlighting strong regional influence. Nonetheless, the projections indicate that ASM is a potential regional source in modulating UTLS water vapor budget in a warming climate.
Previous studies documented that near‐surface temperatures over the Sahara and Arabian deserts have been amplified in a warming climate, which is termed desert amplification (DA). DA has been linked ...possibly to the large‐scale greenhouse effects associated with increasing water vapour. With very limited moisture availability over the driest desert, two key questions unanswered are the desert moisture sources and the relative contributions of thermodynamic and dynamic processes to the changes in moisture transport. In this study, the atmospheric water vapour budget over the Sahara Desert from 1981–2020 is analysed to address these two questions. Results indicate that the water vapour content over the Sahara Desert has increased significantly since 1981, primarily during the boreal summer and in the lower to middle troposphere. The water vapour budget analysis indicates that in the boreal summer, most of the added moisture is transported into the Sahara Desert through the intensifying northerly inflow across the northern boundary of the desert, while the other boundaries are all export channels. The northerly inward moisture transport is associated with the ridge in the lower troposphere and the Saharan high above the lower troposphere. Further analysis indicates that both dynamic and thermodynamic factors contribute to the increase of the inward moisture flux at the northern boundary, while the associated interannual variability is dominated by the dynamic component related to the circulation pattern changes. The changes of the circulation pattern in the lower troposphere are manifested as the westward extension of the low over the Arabian Peninsula and as the strengthening of the Saharan high above the lower troposphere, both contributing to the increase of the northerly inward moisture transport.
Significant moistening has taken place in the lower to middle troposphere over the Sahara Desert during the boreal summer since 1981. The added moisture is transported into the Sahara Desert across the northern boundary via the intensifying southward moisture flux, while other boundaries are all export channels. Both dynamic and thermodynamic factors contribute to the increase of the northerly inward moisture flux, while the associated interannual variability is dominated by the dynamic component.
A uniform, global approach is used to quantify how atmospheric rivers (ARs) change between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations and future projections under the ...Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 warming scenarios. The projections indicate that while there will be ~10% fewer ARs in the future, the ARs will be ~25% longer, ~25% wider, and exhibit stronger integrated water vapor transports (IVTs) under RCP8.5. These changes result in pronounced increases in the frequency (IVT strength) of AR conditions under RCP8.5: ~50% (25%) globally, ~50% (20%) in the northern midlatitudes, and ~60% (20%) in the southern midlatitudes. The models exhibit systematic low biases across the midlatitudes in replicating historical AR frequency (~10%), zonal IVT (~15%), and meridional IVT (~25%), with sizable intermodel differences. A more detailed examination of six regions strongly impacted by ARs suggests that the western United States, northwestern Europe, and southwestern South America exhibit considerable intermodel differences in projected changes in ARs.
Plain Language Summary
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are elongated strands of horizontal water vapor transport, accounting for over 90% of the poleward water vapor transport across midlatitudes. These “rivers in the sky” have important implications for extreme precipitation when they make landfall, particularly along the west coasts of many midlatitude continents (e.g., North America, South America, and West Europe) due to orographic lifting. ARs are important contributors to extreme weather and precipitation events, and while their presence can contribute to beneficial rainfall and snowfall, which can mitigate droughts, they can also lead to flooding and extreme winds. This study takes a uniform, global approach that is used to quantify how ARs change between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations and future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 warming scenarios globally. The projections indicate that while there will be ~10% fewer ARs in the future, the ARs will be ~25% longer, ~25% wider, and exhibit stronger integrated water vapor transports under RCP8.5. These changes result in pronounced increases in the frequency (integrated water vapor transport strength) of AR conditions under RCP8.5: ~50% (25%) globally, ~50% (20%) in the northern midlatitudes, and ~60% (20%) in the southern midlatitudes.
Key Points
Globally, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are ~10% fewer, ~25% longer, ~25% wider, and with stronger moisture transport under the RCP8.5 scenario
In the midlatitudes where ARs are most frequent, AR conditions are ~50–60% more frequent and AR transport is ~20% stronger in the future
Systematic low biases exist in the midlatitudes in historical AR frequency (~10%), zonal (~15%), and meridional (~25%) moisture transport
Current climate models often have significant wet biases in the Tibetan Plateau and encounter particular difficulties in representing the climatic effect of the Central Himalaya Mountain (CHM), where ...the gradient of elevation is extremely steep and the terrain is complex. Yet, there were few studies dealing with the issue in the high altitudes of this region. In order to improve climate modeling in this region, a network consisting of 14 rain gauges was set up at elevations > 2800 m above sea level along a CHM valley. Numerical experiments with Weather Research and Forecasting model were conducted to investigate the effects of meso- and micro-scale terrain on water vapor transport and precipitation. The control case uses a high horizontal resolution (0.03°) and a Turbulent Orographic Form Drag (TOFD) scheme to resolve the mesoscale terrain and to represent sub-grid microscale terrain effect. The effects of the horizontal resolution and the TOFD scheme were then analyzed through comparisons with sensitivity cases that either use a low horizontal resolution (0.09°) or switch off the TOFD scheme. The results show that the simulations with high horizontal resolution, even without the TOFD scheme, can not only increase the spatial consistency (correlation coefficient 0.84–0.92) between the observed and simulated precipitation, but also considerably reduce the wet bias by more than 250%. Adding the TOFD scheme further reduces the precipitation bias by 50% or so at almost all stations in the CHM. The TOFD scheme reduces precipitation intensity, especially heavy precipitation (> 10 mm h
−1
) over high altitudes of the CHM. Both high horizontal resolution and TOFD enhance the orographic drag to slow down wind; as a result, less water vapor is transported from lowland to the high altitudes of CHM, causing more precipitation at lowland area of the CHM and less at high altitudes of CHM. Therefore, in this highly terrain-complex region, it is crucial to use a high horizontal resolution to depict mesoscale complex terrain and a TOFD scheme to parameterize the drag caused by microscale complex terrain.
We present the new Atmospheric Raman Temperature and Humidity Sounder (ARTHUS). We demonstrate that ARTHUS measurements resolve (1) the strength of the inversion layer at the planetary boundary layer ...top, (2) elevated lids in the free troposphere during daytime and nighttime, and (3) turbulent fluctuations in water vapor and temperature, simultaneously, also during daytime. Very stable and reliable performance was demonstrably achieved during more than 2,500 hr of operations time experiencing a huge variety of weather conditions. ARTHUS provides temperature profiles with resolutions of 10–60 s and 7.5–100 m vertically in the lower free troposphere. During daytime, the statistical uncertainty of the water vapor mixing ratio is <2 % in the lower troposphere for resolutions of 5 min and 100 m. Temperature statistical uncertainty is <0.5 K even up to the middle troposphere. ARTHUS fulfills the stringent WMO breakthrough requirements on nowcasting and very short range forecasting.
Plain Language Summary
The observation of atmospheric moisture and temperature profiles is essential for the understanding and prediction of earth system processes. These are fundamental components of the global and regional energy and water cycles; they determine the radiative transfer through the atmosphere and are critical for the cloud formation and precipitation. Also, it is expected that the assimilation of high‐quality, lower tropospheric WV and T profiles will result in a considerable improvement of the skill of weather forecast models particularly with respect to extreme events. Here we present the Atmospheric Raman Temperature and Humidity Sounder, an exceptional tool for observations in the atmospheric boundary layer during daytime and nighttime with a very short latency. This performance serves very well the next generation of very fast rapid‐update‐cycle data assimilation systems for nowcasting and short‐range weather forecasting. Ground‐based stations and networks can be set up or extended for climate monitoring, verification of weather, climate and earth system models, and data assimilation for improving weather forecasts.
Key Points
Fulfills World Meteorological Organization breakthrough requirements for nowcasting/very short range forecasting in the lower troposphere
Resolves strength of the inversion layer at the planetary boundary layer top and elevated lids above during daytime and nighttime
Provides statistics on turbulent fluctuations in water vapor and temperature simultaneously in the lower troposphere
Extratropical cyclones (ECs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) impact precipitation over the U.S. West Coast and other analogous regions globally. This study investigates the relationship between ECs and ...ARs by exploring the connections between EC strength and AR intensity and position using a new AR intensity scale. While 82% of ARs are associated with an EC, only 45% of ECs have a paired AR and the distance between the AR and EC varies greatly. Roughly 20% of ARs (defined by vertically integrated water vapor transport) occur without a nearby EC. These are usually close to a subtropical/tropical moisture source and include an anticyclone. AR intensity is only moderately proportional to EC strength. Neither the location nor intensity of an AR can be simply determined by an EC. Greater EC intensification occurs with stronger ARs, suggesting that ARs enhance EC deepening by providing more water vapor for latent heat release.
Plain Language Summary
Both extratropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers have impact on precipitation over the U.S. West Coast, and they are often mentioned together. However, the relationship between the two is not completely understood. In this study, we have examined the connections between extratropical cyclone strength and atmospheric river intensity and position. While 82% of atmospheric rivers are related to a cyclone, only 45% of cyclones have an accompanied atmospheric river. The distance between the two varies from about 300 km to over 2,000 km. Roughly 20% of atmospheric rivers occur without a nearby cyclone. These cases are close to the subtropical/tropical moisture source and are related to a high pressure. While cyclones can enhance atmospheric rivers with stronger wind, neither the location nor the intensity of an atmospheric river can be simply determined by a cyclone. On the other hand, atmospheric rivers with strong water vapor transport provide favorable conditions for cyclone intensification. Our results provide a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between atmospheric rivers and extratropical cyclones. This work improves the understanding of the dynamical mechanism for heavy precipitation over the U.S. West Coast and thus provides more reliable information on long‐term flood control and water planning.
Key Points
Eighty‐two percent of atmospheric rivers are associated with an extratropical cyclone, while 45% of extratropical cyclones have an atmospheric river
An extratropical cyclone often intensifies the atmospheric river with stronger wind‐driven meridional water vapor transport
Atmospheric rivers can enhance the precipitation and latent heat release, which contributes to extratropical cyclone intensification
The 2016–2017 Arctic sea ice growth season (October–March) exhibited one of the lowest values for end‐of‐season sea ice volume and extent of any year since 1979. An analysis of Modern‐Era ...Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 atmospheric reanalysis data and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System radiative flux data reveals that a record warm and moist Arctic atmosphere supported the reduced sea ice growth. Numerous regional episodes of increased atmospheric temperature and moisture, transported from lower latitudes, increased the cumulative energy input from downwelling longwave surface fluxes. In those same episodes, the efficiency of the atmosphere cooling radiatively to space was reduced, increasing the amount of energy retained in the Arctic atmosphere and reradiated back toward the surface. Overall, the Arctic radiative cooling efficiency shows a decreasing trend since 2000. The results presented highlight the increasing importance of atmospheric forcing on sea ice variability demonstrating that episodic Arctic atmospheric rivers, regions of elevated poleward water vapor transport, and the subsequent surface energy budget response is a critical mechanism actively contributing to the evolution of Arctic sea ice.
Plain Language Summary
In the winter of 2016–2017, the Arctic experienced several days when temperatures over the region were 20°C (over 30 °F) above normal. In this article, we investigate the reasons that these warm days existed and show how this winter was unprecedented in the last 15 years. The key to the warming is periods of warm and moist air transported from lower latitudes. These warm periods reduced the rate of growth of sea ice and contributed to sea ice at the end of the 2016–2017 winter season that was among the thinnest and least expansive on record. The factors that supported the record low growth in 2016/2017 are also important for other recent winters, and these factors may become more important as Arctic sea ice becomes thinner and more vulnerable to change.
Key Points
The 2016/2017 freeze‐up season exhibited one of the lowest values for end‐of‐season Arctic sea ice extent and volume on record
Arctic atmospheric rivers increased downwelling longwave fluxes and reduced sea ice growth rate for periods during the 2016/2017 freeze‐up season
Cooling efficiency of Arctic surface by longwave fluxes in 2016/2017 was lowest since 2000, with contribution from Arctic atmospheric rivers
Evidence has suggested a wetting trend over part of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades, although there are large uncertainties in this trend due to sparse observations. Examining the change ...in the moisture source for precipitation over a region in the TP with the most obvious increasing precipitation trend may help understand the precipitation change. This study applied the modified Water Accounting Model with two atmospheric reanalyses, ground-observed precipitation, and evaporation from a land surface model to investigate the change in moisture source of the precipitation over the targeted region. The study estimated that on average more than 69% and more than 21% of the moisture supply to precipitation over the targeted region came from land and ocean, respectively. The moisture transports from the west of the TP by the westerlies and from the southwest by the Indian summer monsoon likely contributed the most to precipitation over the targeted region. The moisture from inside the region may have contributed about 18% of the total precipitation. Most of the increased moisture supply to the precipitation during 1979–2013 was attributed to the enhanced influx from the southwest and the local moisture supply. The precipitation recycling ratio over the targeted region increased significantly, suggesting an intensified hydrological cycle. Further analysis at monthly scale and with wet–dry-year composites indicates that the increased moisture contribution was mainly from the southwest and the targeted region during May and September. The enhanced water vapor transport from the Indian Ocean during July and September and the intensified local hydrological recycling seem to be the primary reasons behind the recent precipitation increase over the targeted region.
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