•A mathematic model is built to evaluate the air pollution of heating consumption.•The coal substitution policy can reduce the PM2.5 concentrations by about 20 μg/m3.•Effect of renewable energy and its development to air quality is considered.•PM2.5 concentration in 2030 will drop by about 27% in Northern China compared to 2016. The Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan proposed in 2013 has contributed to the fossil fuel reduction in central heating, but the consumption of scattered coal in rural areas should not be overlooked as it accounts for nearly 50% pollutant emissions during the heating season. Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas was issued to solve the problem of scattered coal consumption and improve the heating energy structure in 2017. In this paper, an air quality-heating model is established to evaluate the air quality improvement potential and far-reaching influence of scattered coal consumption reduction in rural areas. Distinct from other air quality evaluation models, the proposed model is to evaluate the regional air quality related to the heating factors. The results indicate that the coal substitution policy can reduce PM2.5 concentrations in the heating season by about 20 μg/m3 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas. Furthermore, predictions about the variation of PM2.5 concentration in the heating season are conducted, which indicate that the PM2.5 concentration of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas in 2030 will drop by 48%, 35%, 29% and 23% respectively compared to that in 2016. The reduction could be further enhanced to be 55%, 40%, 32% and 27% with the consideration of clean power development. This study is conducive to evaluate the clean heating technologies role in improving the environment and air quality.