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  • Tail risks of energy transi...
    Reboredo, Juan C.; Ugolini, Andrea; Ojea-Ferreiro, Javier

    Resources policy, June 2024, 2024-06-00, Letnik: 93
    Journal Article

    Energy transition requires huge amounts of critical metals —called energy transition metals (ETMs)— to deploy clean energy technologies. The growing demand for ETMs and uncertainties regarding the path to net-zero emissions could cause ETM price oscillations, with potential effects on the prices of other commodities. We explore whether upward and downward movements in ETM prices have a neutral effect on the level and volatility of energy and non-energy commodity prices. By characterizing the conditional dependence between ETM and commodity prices, we document that, except for natural gas, extreme ETM price changes have a non-neutral effect on commodity prices, although this effect vanishes for non-extreme price movements. The implications of this evidence for investors operating in commodity markets are evaluated in terms of commodity risk-adjusted returns, commodity tail risk, and liquidity needs for trading in commodity futures contracts. •We examine whether ETM price upward and downward movements have a neutral effect on commodity prices.•We characterize conditional dependence between ETM and commodity prices.•Extreme ETM price changes have a non-neutral effect on energy and non-energy commodity prices and volatility.•ETM price movements around median values have negligible effects on commodity prices.•Commodity risk-adjusted returns, tail risk, and liquidity needs can be improved by considering ETM markets.