Geogenic radon potential (GRP) is traditionally used for mapping radon-prone areas. However, this has challenges in the accurate assessment of radon risk because of limitations such as oversimplified soil measurements and lack of geological profiles. This study presents predictive geogenic radon potential (P-GRP), integrating geological characterization and advanced modeling for the emanation and transport of radon in the subsurface environment. Seoul, South Korea, was selected as the research area for the evaluation of hazards using P-GRP, while subway station A was selected for the assessment of indoor health risks. The geology was characterized by the layers of bedrock and soil using uranium contents and porosity. The emanation of radon was modeled considering the radioactive decay chain of uranium and the pore structures. The vertical transport of radon was modeled considering the porosity variation within geological media, which was used for the calculation of P-GRP. Without loss of continuity, the P-GRP map was constructed by calculating P-GRP at a specific depth over the Seoul area. The calculation of P-GRP in the case of subway station A demonstrates that the radon concentration in the bedrock at the platform depth was expected to be 382 million Bqm−3. The indoor radon risk was calculated using the P-GRP by coupling the vapor intrusion process. This presented a high cancer risk for the employees as well as commuters. The P-GRP map of Seoul demonstrated higher hazards in granite zones compared to banded gneiss zones. These results have demonstrated that the P-GRP could be a novel and promising approach for assessing hazard and risk by geogenic radon during subsurface development. Display omitted •A novel approach for assessing hazard and risk by radon in subsurface development•Utilization of advanced 3D geological profiling and vertical transport dynamics•Scenario-driven insights facilitate effective risk mitigation strategies•Expanded assessment of radon hazard across various depths•Development of scalable solutions for urban radon risk management