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Li, Ruiyun; Pei, Sen; Chen, Bin; Song, Yimeng; Zhang, Tao; Yang, Wan; Shaman, Jeffrey
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 05/2020, Letnik: 368, Številka: 6490Journal Article
Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here, we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model, and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate that 86% of all infections were undocumented 95% credible interval (CI): 82-90% before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. The transmission rate of undocumented infections per person was 55% the transmission rate of documented infections (95% CI: 46-62%), yet, because of their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the source of 79% of the documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicate that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
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JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP | JCR | SNIP |
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Vir: Osebne bibliografije
in: SICRIS
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