Global warming modulates the spatial and temporal occurrence of insect outbreaks, leading to as-yet-unknown effects on forests ecosystems. Warmer trends may favour the upward and northward expansion of pests, albeit increased exposure to heat events and droughts may also hamper insect growth and development. Thus far, further research is needed about the balance of climate warming on pine processionary moth (PPM) (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) development stages, especially at broader scales, despite being the main conifer-defoliating insect in the Mediterranean area. This research analyses the relationships of PPM with the climatic conditions during its most vulnerable development phases in Spain to provide base-information for forest managers. We hypothesize that warmer winter temperatures will increase PPM growth at their larval feeding stage, whereas summer-heat events will reduce PPM rates from egg and early larval stages, leading to counterbalanced effects of climate warming. Furthermore, we expect dry springs will allow an earlier development of PPM and higher incidence of outbreaks. To analyse climate effects on PPM populations in Andalusia, Castilla-La Mancha, and Navarre (37 to 42°N), we compiled information from the Regional Forest Services comprising up to 26 years of monitoring data from 2465 forest stands dominated by Pinus nigra and Pinus sylvestris. We fitted Cumulative Link Mixed Models (CLMM) to test the climate effects on four PPM defoliation severity levels. Our results support higher PPM larvae survival and incidence due to warmer winter conditions, but also the reduction of PPM population size under summer heat conditions. Particularly, the increasing incidence associated to warmer winters during the larval defoliating stage is counterbalanced by the decreasing population at earlier life stages during summer heat events. Spring drought also plays an important role on PPM incidence rates, but its effect is idiosyncratic to each region, suggesting an adaptation of PPM populations to regional conditions, claiming to tailor-made forest management endeavours. This study reveals that a better comprehension of abiotic effects along the whole PPM life cycle is paramount to understand the impact of climate warming on insect outbreaks which shorten wood production and carbon sequestration of Mediterranean forests. •Understanding novel environmental conditions on pest outbreaks is paramount to forecast their future incidence.•Positive effects of warmer winters for PPM populations is counterbalanced by the negative impacts of summer heat events.•Spring drought plays an important role on PPM incidence rates, but its effect is idiosyncratic to each region.