•Crack initiation load Pi has been predicted using the maximum fracture load Pmax and FPZ length.•Analytical predictions of Pi have been confirmed by experiments reported in literature.•The corresponding toughness Ki and Kun at Pi and Pmax are obtained analytically.•The size-independent fracture toughness KIC are compared with Ki and Kun.•Simple approximation of the tensile stress at the notch tip is provided. The initial cracking load (Pi) of a notched concrete beam, difficult to measure, has been predicted from the maximum fracture load (Pmax) together with the notch-tip fracture process zone (FPZ) at Pmax. A simple analytical model is used to link Pi and Pmax together through the FPZ. The corresponding initiation and unstable fracture toughness, Ki and Kun, have also been determined. The model assumes that the lower limit of Pmax from a group of identical notched concrete beams corresponds to the lower limit of the FPZ length FPZL, so that the lowest limit Pmax = Pi is established for FPZL = 0. Detailed FPZ measurements before and at Pmax using a digital image correlation technique were analysed and used to predict the initial cracking load Pi. Six different specimens with various sizes (W = 40, 60 and 80 mm), initial notches (a0 = 12 to 48 mm) and FPZL (7 to 13 mm) at Pmax showed the average ratio of FPZL/(W – a0) was around 0.25, indicating the Pi/Pmax ratio was around 0.67 based on the analytical model. The crack growth resistance KR-curve between the crack initiation toughness Ki at Pi and the unstable fracture toughness Kun at Pmax was also established approximately by the simple model. Estimated intrinsic fracture toughness KIC was compared with Ki and Kun. The influence of average aggregate size dav on Pi and FPZL at Pmax was also discussed.