Autor analizira učinke preferencijskog glasovanja u Hrvatskoj u dosadašnjih šest ciklusa izbora u kojima je bilo primijenjeno preferencijsko glasovanje. Autor institucionalno smješta hrvatski sustav ...preferencijskog glasovanja unutar europskih preferencijskih sustava. Koristeći izborne liste kao jedinice analize, autor utvrđuje krajnje učinke na personalni sastav parlamenta, analizirajući pritom razinu i način na koji birači koriste svoj preferencijski glas, kao i izravni i posredni utjecaj vrste izbora i varijabli stranačke ponude. Rezultati pokazuju da, komparativno gledano i s obzirom na institucionalne mogućnosti, učinci preferencijskog glasovanja u Hrvatskoj nisu mali. Dok je korištenje preferencijskog glasovanja među najvišim razinama u usporedbi s drugim državama članicama EU, koncentracija preferencijskih glasova na prvog kandidata na listi također je pojačana. Nalaze se razlike s obzirom na vrstu izbora i s obzirom na stranačku ponudu. Starost stranke i njezina veličina, kao i položaj stranke na ljestvici lijevo-desno, utječu na pojedine dimenzije preferencijskog ponašanja birača. Nalazi su važni u svjetlu javnih zahtjeva za reformom sustava preferencijskog glasovanja u Hrvatskoj.
The article analyzes the effects of preferential voting in Croatia in six electoral cycles in which until now preferential voting was applied. Author institutionally positions Croatian model of preferential voting among other European preferential systems. By usage of electoral lists as units of analysis, the analysis determines final effects on personal composition of the parliament, the level and way of how voters use their preferential votes, and direct and indirect effects of type of elections and variables of party supply. Findings show that, comparatively and dependent on institutional opportunities, the effects of preferential voting in Croatia are not small. While the usage of preferential voting is among the highest in comparison to other EU member states, the concentration of preferential votes on the first candidate on the list is also high. There are differences regarding the type of elections and the party supply. The party age and size as well as its left-right position affect some dimensions of voters’ behavior. The findings are important in the light of public requests for reform of preferential voting system in Croatia.
Polazeći od stava Ustavnog suda Republike Hrvatske da ustavnost podjele zemlje na izborne jedince u parlamentarnim izborima ovisi o tome ima li ta podjela učinaka na izborne rezultate, autor razmatra ...metodološke načine na koje bi se ti učinci mogli znanstveno provjeriti i izmjeriti. Odbacujući metodološku sugestiju Ustavnog suda kao istraživački zahtjevnu i "neekonomičnu", autor nudi alternativnu istraživačku strategiju koja se temelji na metodi simulacije kao jedinome primjerenom postupku u rješavanju istraživačkog pitanja. Simulacija rezultata parlamentarnih izbora od 2000. do 2016. koji bi bili provedeni u izbornim jedinicama različite veličine, što bi osiguralo stvarnu jednakost biračkog prava građana, pokazuje bitne razlike u odnosu prema stvarnima izbornim rezultatima, kako na razini izbornih jedinica tako i na razini pojedinih zastupnika. Učinci na raspodjelu mandata strankama u parlamentu i na izglede stranaka da sastave vlade pokazali su se pak minimalnima ili nikakvima. Autor ne vidi pravne prepreke da se ponuđeni nalaz ne iskoristi u praksi Ustavnog suda.
Earlier studies on party membership in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) led to the conclusion that political parties in new democracies are not inclined to build strong party organisations or invest ...in recruiting members. However, several recent individual country studies point to the opposite conclusions, indicating that there are significant cross ‑country variations in party membership figures across the post ‑communist region. By using a unique dataset on party membership in post ‑communist Europe, in this article we argue that the average membership level in CEE seems to be higher than in Western Europe. This holds true even when party membership figures for CEE countries are ‘corrected’ after conducting validity and reliability tests. Furthermore, we also find that party membership figures across CEE countries vary to a much higher degree than in established Western democracies. Our analysis shows that former Yugoslav countries are clustered at the top and other CEE countries at the bottom, leading to the conclusion that selection bias has been present in many studies on party membership that only included a limited number of post ‑communist countries. In order to explain higher levels of party membership in post ‑Yugoslav countries, we test three sets of explanatory variables, namely socialism, nationalism and clientelism. This exploratory study suggests that nationalist movements from the early period of transition, coupled with clientelistic politics, could serve as the most convincing explanation of high membership density in former Yugoslav countries.
Mijenjaju li se stavovi građana o demokraciji u uvjetima povećane institucionalne nestabilnosti i promjena u stranačkom sustavu u Hrvatskoj u posljednjih nekoliko godina? Nastojeći odgovoriti na to ...pitanje, autori polaze od koncepta političke potpore demokraciji kakav je izvorno zamislio David Easton, a nadogradili su ga i operacionalizirali Russel Dalton i Pippa Norris. U članku se analiziraju odnos difuzne i specifične potpore demokraciji u Hrvatskoj od 1999. do 2018. i utjecaj na ponašanje birača u oblicima glasovanja za etablirane stranke (lojalnost), nove i marginalne stranke (glas) te apstinencije (izlazak). Analiza obuhvaća sedam vremenskih točaka anketnih istraživanja izbora od 1999. do 2018. i nadovezuje se na druga istraživanja potpore demokraciji u Hrvatskoj. Rezultati potvrđuju da se s vremenom produbio jaz između normativne potpore i zadovoljstva funkcioniranjem demokracije, što se ogleda u povećanju broja kritičkih demokrata i nezadovoljnih autokrata. Premda su obje skupine još razmjerno ravnomjerno raspoređene među etabliranima i novim strankama, ima naznaka da nezadovoljni autokrati sve češće biraju "glas" umjesto "izlaska". Pritom, ukupna slika unutarnje strukture potpore demokraciji nakon 2015. sve više nalikuje na stanje prije velikih institucionalnih promjena 2000, što pridaje posebnu dimenziju političkim promjenama 2015. i 2016. i otvara pitanje o utjecaju uspjeha novih političkih aktera na potporu demokraciji u Hrvatskoj.
Have the attitudes of citizens on democracy changed under increased institutional instability and party system changes in Croatia in recent years? In an attempt to answer that question, the authors start with the concept of support for democracy as originally conceived by David Easton, and later further elaborated on by Russel Dalton and Pippa Norris. This article provides an analysis of the relationship between diffuse and specific support for democracy in Croatia between 1999 and 2018 and its impact on voting behaviour including casting a ballot for the established parties (loyalty), for the new and protest parties (vote) or abstention (exit). The analysis involves seven time points in electoral survey research between 1999 and 2018 in Croatia and is complementary to other research on support for democracy in the country. The results confirm that the gap between normative support and the satisfaction with how democracy works increases over time, which is also evident from the increase in the number of critical (dissatisfied) democrats, but also of dissatisfied autocrats. Although both groups are still rather evenly represented among the established and the new political parties, there are indications that the dissatisfied autocrats will more often than not opt for the vote rather than the exit. At the same time, the overall picture of the post-2015 internal structure of democratic support increasingly resembles the pre-2000 era, when major institutional changes took place, giving an added dimension to the political changes of 2015 and 2016 and sparking the question of the future impact that new political actors will have on the support for democracy.
Stari rascjepi i nove stranke Čular, Goran; Henjak, Andrija
Politička misao,
05/2024, Volume:
61, Issue:
1
Journal Article, Paper
Peer reviewed
Open access
Parlamentarni izbori 2020. godine potvrdili su dotadašnji trend pojave novih stranaka na izborima, sad uzduž cijelog političkog spektra. Koristeći anketne podatke, rad pokušava identificirati ...izvore izborne podrške novim strankama te utvrditi koliko se nove stranke uklapaju u tradicionalne političke rascjepe. Rad nalazi da se birači novih stranaka razlikuju od birača starih stranaka prije svega po odnosu prema načinu na koji politika funkcionira u Hrvatskoj te da dolaze iz mlađih generacija. Istovremeno, birači novih stranaka ljevice, odnosno desnice u svom su odnosu prema tradicionalnim rascjepima vrlo slični biračima starih stranaka ljevice, odnosno desnice, što ukazuje da su rascjepi temeljeni na odnosu prema povijesti, religiji i tradiciji i dalje dominantni. U drugom koraku analiza uključuje i izborne apstinente te pokazuje da su izborni apstinenti slični biračima novih stranaka u svom odnosu prema politici, ali da se od njih razlikuju po tome što su puno manje uvjereni da mogu utjecati na političke događaje.
Parliamentary elections in 2020 brought new political parties in Croatia, but this now encompassed the whole political spectrum. Using survey data, the article aims to identify sources of electoral support for new parties and how they relate to traditional political cleavages. The article finds that voters of the new parties differ from voters of the old parties primarily in how they perceive politics, and are also younger. At the same time, voters of the new parties on the left and the right are very similar to voters of the old left and right parties, respectively, pointing to still dominant role of the cleavages based on relation to history, religion and tradition. In the second step, the analysis also includes non-voters and finds that voters of the new parties and abstainers are similar in how they see politics, but abstainers feel much less confident about their ability to influence political events
Parlamentarni izbori 2020. godine potvrdili su dotadašnji trend pojave novih stranaka na izborima, sad uzduž cijelog političkog spektra. Koristeći anketne podatke, rad pokušava identificirati izvore ...izborne podrške novim strankama te utvrditi koliko se nove stranke uklapaju u tradicionalne političke rascjepe. Rad nalazi da se birači novih stranaka razlikuju od birača starih stranaka prije svega po odnosu prema načinu na koji politika funkcionira u Hrvatskoj te da dolaze iz mlađih generacija. Istovremeno, birači novih stranaka ljevice, odnosno desnice u svom su odnosu prema tradicionalnim rascjepima vrlo slični biračima starih stranaka ljevice, odnosno desnice, što ukazuje da su rascjepi temeljeni na odnosu prema povijesti, religiji i tradiciji i dalje dominantni. U drugom koraku analiza uključuje i izborne apstinente te pokazuje da su izborni apstinenti slični biračima novih stranaka u svom odnosu prema politici, ali da se od njih razlikuju po tome što su puno manje uvjereni da mogu utjecati na političke događaje.
This article focuses on the politics of electoral system change and its effects on the process of democratic consolidation in Croatia. After the first decade of democratisation when electoral rules ...were strategically engaged in order to secure one-party domination, the consensual introduction of proportional representation in 1999 marked the start of the full-scale consolidation of democracy. However, after only a decade, when faced with strong pressure caused by a deep economic recession and omnipresent political corruption, democracy in Croatia started to deteriorate, followed by significantly lower levels of trust in representative institutions and widespread citizen disaffection with the functioning of democracy. The proportional representation system was identified as the main cause of the crisis of Croatian democracy, raising strong critical voices asking for its reform or even replacement. The Croatian case thus shows that the interplay between electoral institutions and democratic (de)consolidation is far from being straightforward.
Taking the position of the Constitutional Court of Republic of Croatia that constitutionality of apportionment in Croatian parliamentary elections depends on whether such an apportionment affects ...electoral results as a starting point, the author discusses the methodological strategies by which the effects could be scientifically verified and measured. Discarding methodological suggestion of the Constitutional Court itself as a demanding and "non-economic" in terms of research, the article offers an alternative methodological strategy, also based on simulation as the only appropriate method for resolving such a research puzzle. Simulation of electoral results of parliamentary elections in Croatia from 2000 to 2016, under conditions of electoral units of different magnitude that assure real equality of voting rights, shows significant differences to actual electoral results at the level of electoral districts and personal level. Effects on distribution of seats among parties at the level of entire parliament as well as on the chances of parties to form government are either minimal or non-existent. There are no juristic obstacles for the research finding to be used in the praxis of the Constitutional Court.
Have the attitudes of citizens on democracy changed under increased institutional instability and party system changes in Croatia in recent years? In an attempt to answer that question, the authors ...start with the concept of support for democracy as originally conceived by David Easton, and later further elaborated on by Russel Dalton and Pippa Norris. This article provides an analysis of the relationship between diffuse and specific support for democracy in Croatia between 1999 and 2018 and its impact on voting behaviour including casting a ballot for the established parties (loyalty), for the new and protest parties (vote) or abstention (exit). The analysis involves seven time points in electoral survey research between 1999 and 2018 in Croatia and is complementary to other research on support for democracy in the country. The results confirm that the gap between normative support and the satisfaction with how democracy works increases over time, which is also evident from the increase in the number of critical (dissatisfied) democrats, but also of dissatisfied autocrats. Although both groups are still rather evenly represented among the established and the new political parties, there are indications that the dissatisfied autocrats will more often than not opt for the vote rather than the exit. At the same time, the overall picture of the post-2015 internal structure of democratic support increasingly resembles the pre-2000 era, when major institutional changes took place, giving an added dimension to the political changes of 2015 and 2016 and sparking the question of the future impact that new political actors will have on the support for democracy.
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