The global Immunisation Agenda 2030 highlights coverage and equity as a strategic priority goal to reach high equitable immunisation coverage at national levels and in all districts. We estimated ...inequities in full immunisation coverage associated with socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, child, and place of birth characteristics among children aged 12-23 months in Kenya.
We analysed full immunisation coverage (1-dose BCG, 3-dose DTP-HepB-Hib (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B and Haemophilus influenzae type B), 3-dose polio, 1-dose measles, and 3-dose pneumococcal vaccines) of 3943 children aged 12-23 months from the 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey. We disaggregated mean coverage by socioeconomic (household wealth, religion, ethnicity), geographic (place of residence, province), maternal (maternal age at birth, maternal education, maternal marital status, maternal household head status), child (sex of child, birth order), and place of birth characteristics, and estimated inequities in full immunisation coverage using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression.
Immunisation coverage ranged from 82% 81-84 for the third dose of polio to 97.4% 96.7-98.2 for the first dose of DTP-HepB-Hib, while full immunisation coverage was 68% 66-71 in 2014. After controlling for other background characteristics through multivariate logistic regression, children of mothers with primary school education or higher have at least 54% higher odds of being fully immunised compared to children of mothers with no education. Children born in clinical settings had 41% higher odds of being fully immunised compared to children born in home settings. Children in the Coast, Western, Central, and Eastern regions had at least 74% higher odds of being fully immunised compared to children in the North Eastern region, while children in urban areas had 26% lower odds of full immunisation compared to children in rural areas. Children in the middle and richer wealth quintile households were 43-57% more likely to have full immunisation coverage compared to children in the poorest wealth quintile households. Children who were sixth born or higher had 37% lower odds of full immunisation compared to first-born children.
Children of mothers with no education, born in home settings, in regions with limited health infrastructure, living in poorer households, and of higher birth order are associated with lower rates of full immunisation. Targeted programmes to reach under-immunised children in these subpopulations will lower the inequities in childhood immunisation coverage in Kenya.
Effective, quality reproductive, maternal, and child health services including family planning, and female education and empowerment are likely to accelerate demographic transition and yield a ...demographic dividend. Nigeria's lower life expectancy is partially due to having more deaths in children of 5 years and younger than any other country in the world, including more populous India and China and countries experiencing widespread long-term conflict, such as Somalia. Interventions are needed to improve child nutrition, reduce indoor and outdoor air pollution, address unmet family planning needs, and improve access to safe drinking water and sanitation. Nigeria needs better manufacturing capacity for essential health products, medicines and vaccines, the provision of diagnostics, surveillance and preventive public health measures in health facilities and community settings, as well as other preventive and curative measures.
Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Epidemic ...waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or infection spreads to susceptible subpopulations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socioeconomic and urban–rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) protect against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among vaccinees. However, at population level, this protection is driven by indirect effects. PCVs prevent ...nasopharyngeal acquisition of vaccine-serotype (VT) pneumococci, reducing onward transmission. Each disease episode is preceded by infection from a carrier, so vaccine impacts on carriage provide a minimum estimate of disease reduction in settings lacking expensive IPD surveillance. We documented carriage prevalence and vaccine coverage in two settings in Nigeria annually (2016-2020) following PCV10 introduction in 2016. Among 4,684 rural participants, VT carriage prevalence fell from 21 to 12% as childhood (<5 years) vaccine coverage rose from 7 to 84%. Among 2,135 urban participants, VT carriage prevalence fell from 16 to 9% as uptake rose from 15 to 94%. Within these ranges, carriage prevalence declined with uptake. Increasing PCV10 coverage reduced pneumococcal infection at all ages, implying at least a comparable reduction in IPD.
Changes in nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage of vaccine-type (VT) Streptococcus pneumoniae can be used to assess the effectiveness of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10). We conducted a baseline ...carriage survey in rural (Kumbotso, Kano) and urban (Pakoto, Ogun) Nigeria. In this cross-sectional study, we obtained data on demography, clinical history, risk factors, and took NP swabs for pneumococcal culture. We calculated crude and age-standardised carriage prevalence and used log-binomial regression to assess risk factors for carriage. Among children aged <5 years, 92% (95% CI: 88-95%) and 78% (73-82%), respectively, carried any pneumococcus and 48% and 50%, respectively, carried PCV10 serotypes. In Kumbotso, carriage prevalence was >40% across all ages. The age-standardized prevalence of pneumococcal carriage was 66% in Kumbotso and 40% in Pakoto. The most commonly identified serotypes were 19 F, 6 A and 23 F. Risk factors for carriage were young age, recent rhinorrhoea, cohabitation with ≥2 children aged <5 years, and sharing a bed with ≥2 persons. Pneumococcal carriage prevalence is high in this Nigerian population. Persisting prevalence of VT-carriage in older children and adults suggests that PCV10 introduction in children will not eliminate transmission of vaccine serotypes rapidly. High vaccine coverage will therefore be required to ensure full protection of children.
To reach performance levels comparable to human experts, computer-aided detection (CAD) systems are typically optimized following a supervised learning approach that relies on large training ...databases comprising manually annotated lesions. However, manually outlining those lesions constitutes a difficult and time-consuming process that renders detailedly annotated data difficult to obtain. In this paper, we investigate an alternative approach, namely multiple-instance learning (MIL), that does not require detailed information for optimization. We have applied MIL to a CAD system for tuberculosis detection. Only the case condition (normal or abnormal) was required during training. Based upon the well-known miSVM technique, we propose an improved algorithm that overcomes miSVM's drawbacks related to positive instance underestimation and costly iteration. To show the advantages of our MIL-based approach as compared with a traditional supervised one, experiments with three X-ray databases were conducted. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was utilized as a performance measure. With the first database, for which training lesion annotations were available, our MIL-based method was comparable to the supervised system (0.86 versus 0.88). When evaluating the remaining databases, given their large difference with the previous image set, the most appealing strategy was to retrain the CAD systems. However, since only the case condition was available, only the MIL-based system could be retrained. This scenario, which is common in real-world applications, demonstrates the better adaptation capabilities of the proposed approach. After retraining, our MIL-based system significantly outperformed the supervised one (0.86 versus 0.79 and 0.91 versus 0.85, p<;0.0001 and p=0.0002, respectively).
Pulmonary non-tuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) disease epidemiology in sub-Saharan Africa is not as well described as for pulmonary tuberculosis. Earlier reviews of global NTM epidemiology only ...included subject-level data from one sub-Saharan Africa country. We systematically reviewed the literature and searched PubMed, Embase, Popline, OVID and Africa Wide Information for articles on prevalence and clinical relevance of NTM detection in pulmonary samples in sub-Saharan Africa. We applied the American Thoracic Society/Infectious Disease Society of America criteria to differentiate between colonisation and disease. Only 37 articles from 373 citations met our inclusion criteria. The prevalence of pulmonary NTM colonization was 7.5% (95% CI: 7.2%-7.8%), and 75.0% (2325 of 3096) occurred in males, 16.5% (512 of 3096) in those previously treated for tuberculosis and Mycobacterium avium complex predominated (27.7% 95% CI: 27.2-28.9%). In seven eligible studies, 27.9% (266 of 952) of participants had pulmonary NTM disease and M. kansasii with a prevalence of 69.2% 95% CI: 63.2-74.7% was the most common cause of pulmonary NTM disease. NTM species were unidentifiable in 29.2% 2,623 of 8,980 of isolates. In conclusion, pulmonary NTM disease is a neglected and emerging public health disease and enhanced surveillance is required.
In Kilifi (Kenya), a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in 2011 in infants (aged <1 year, 3 + 0 schedule) with a catch-up campaign in children aged 1–4 years. We aimed to measure ...the effect of PCV10 on population immunity.
In this observational study, repeated cross-sectional serosurveys were conducted in independent random samples of 500 children younger than 15 years every 2 years between 2009 and 2017. During these surveys, blood samples were collected by venesection. Concentrations of anti-capsular IgGs against vaccine serotypes (VTs) 1, 4, 5, 6B, 7F, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F, and against serotypes 6A and 19A, were assayed by ELISA. We plotted the geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) by birth year to visualise age-specific antibody profiles. In infants, IgG concentrations of 0·35 μg/mL or higher were considered protective.
Of 3673 volunteers approached, 2152 submitted samples for analysis across the five surveys. Vaccine introduction resulted in an increase in the proportion of young children with protective IgG concentrations, compared with before vaccine introduction (from 0–33% of infants with VT-specific levels over the correlate of protection in 2009, to 60–94% of infants in 2011). However, among those vaccinated in infancy, GMCs of all ten VTs had waned rapidly by the age of 1, but rose again later in childhood. GMCs among children aged 10–14 years were consistently high over time (eg, the range of GMCs across survey rounds were between 0·45 μg/mL and 1·00 μg/mL for VT 23F and between 2·00 μg/mL and 3·11 μg/mL for VT 19F).
PCV10 in a 3 + 0 schedule elicited protective IgG levels during infancy, when disease risk is high. The high antibody levels in children aged 10–14 years might indicate continued exposure to vaccine serotypes due to residual carriage or to memory responses to cross-reactive antigens. Despite rapid waning of IgG after vaccination, disease incidence among young children in this setting remains low, suggesting that lower thresholds of antibody, or other markers of immunity (eg, memory B cells), may be needed to assess population protection among children who have aged past infancy.
Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Wellcome Trust.
•A high coverage is essential if the full benefits of vaccines are to be enjoyed.•A vaccine registry can help quantify the errors in coverage estimates from surveys.•Vaccination coverage obtained ...using a survey approach overestimates coverage by 2%.•Survey and administrative methods underestimate fully immunised children by ≥10%.•Non-hospital delivery and stock-outs were associated with failure to vaccinate.
The benefits of childhood vaccines are critically dependent on vaccination coverage. We used a vaccine registry (as gold standard) in Kenya to quantify errors in routine coverage methods (surveys and administrative reports), to estimate the magnitude of survivor bias, contrast coverage with timeliness and use both measures to estimate population immunity.
Vaccination records of children in the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS), Kenya were combined with births, deaths, migration and residence data from 2010 to 17. Using inverse survival curves, we estimated up-to-date and age-appropriate vaccination coverage, calculated mean vaccination coverage in infancy as the area under the inverse survival curves, and estimated the proportion of fully immunised children (FIC). Results were compared with published coverage estimates. Risk factors for vaccination were assessed using Cox regression models.
We analysed data for 49,090 infants and 48,025 children aged 12–23 months in 6 birth cohorts and 6 cross-sectional surveys respectively, and found 2nd year of life surveys overestimated coverage by 2% compared to birth cohorts. Compared to mean coverage in infants, static coverage at 12 months was exaggerated by 7–8% for third doses of oral polio, pentavalent (Penta3) and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, and by 24% for the measles vaccine. Surveys and administrative coverage also underestimated the proportion of the fully immunised child by 10–14%. For BCG, Penta3 and measles, timeliness was 23–44% higher in children born in a health facility but 20–37% lower in those who first attended during vaccine stock outs.
Standard coverage surveys in 12–23 month old children overestimate protection by ignoring timeliness, and survivor and recall biases. Where delayed vaccination is common, up-to-date coverage will give biased estimates of population immunity. Surveys and administrative methods also underestimate FIC prevalence. Better measurement of coverage and more sophisticated analyses are required to control vaccine preventable diseases.
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