From September 2020 to May 2021 Madrid region (Spain) followed a rather unique non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) by establishing a strategy of perimeter lockdowns (PLs) that banned travels to and ...from areas satisfying certain epidemiological risk criteria. PLs were pursued to avoid harsher restrictions, but some studies have found that the particular implementation by Madrid authorities was rather ineffective. Based on Madrid's case, we devise a general, minimal framework to investigate the PLs effectiveness by using a data-driven metapopulation epidemiological model of a city, and explore under which circumstances the PLs could be a good NPI. The model is informed with real mobility data from Madrid to contextualize its results, but it can be generalized elsewhere. The lowest lockdown activation threshold Formula: see text considered (14-day cumulative incidence rate of 20 cases per every Formula: see text inhabitants) shows a prevalence reduction Formula: see text with respect to the scenario Formula: see text, more akin to the case of Madrid, and assuming no further mitigation. Only the combination of Formula: see text and mobility reduction Formula: see text can avoid PLs for more than Formula: see text of the system. The combination of low Formula: see text and strong local transmissibility reduction is key to minimize the impact, but the latter is harder to achieve given that we assume a situation with highly mitigated transmission, resembling the one observed during the second wave of COVID-19 in Madrid. Thus, we conclude that a generalized lockdown is hard to avoid under any realistic setting if only this strategy is applied.
The COVID-19 outbreak has become the worst pandemic in at least a century. To fight this disease, a global effort led to the development of several vaccines at an unprecedented rate. There have been, ...however, several logistic issues with its deployment, from their production and transport, to the hesitancy of the population to be vaccinated. For different reasons, an important amount of individuals is reluctant to get the vaccine, something that hinders our ability to control and-eventually-eradicate the disease.
Our aim is to explore the impact of vaccine hesitancy when highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern spread through a partially vaccinated population. To do so, we use age-stratified data from surveys on vaccination acceptance, together with age-contact matrices to inform an age-structured SIR model set in the US.
Our results show that per every one percent decrease in vaccine hesitancy up to 45 deaths per million inhabitants could be averted. A closer inspection of the stratified infection rates also reveals the important role played by the youngest groups. The model captures the general trends of the Delta wave spreading in the US (July-October 2021) with a correlation coefficient of Formula: see text.
Our results shed light on the role that hesitancy plays on COVID-19 mortality and highlight the importance of increasing vaccine uptake in the population, specially among the eldest age groups.
Granada Geopark, covering almost all of the Guadix-Baza basin, contains an exceptional and near-continuous fossil record of the evolution of Pliocene to middle Pleistocene land mammals (5–0.5 Ma). ...This period covers the endorheic (closed drainage basin) stage of this geological basin and, in this chronological framework, its record of the Quaternary period, mainly the Early Pleistocene, is outstanding.
Over the last decades, there has been an increasing interest on the chronology, distribution and mammal taxonomy (including hominins) related with the faunal turnovers that took place around the ...Pliocene-Pleistocene transition ca. 1.8 mega-annum (Ma) in Europe. However, these turnovers are not fully understood due to: the precarious nature of the period's fossil record; the "non-coexistence" in this record of many of the species involved; and the enormous geographical area encompassed. This palaeontological information gap can now be in part bridged with data from the Fonelas P-1 site (Granada, Spain), whose faunal composition and late Upper Pliocene date shed light on some of the problems concerning the timing and geography of the dispersals.
This rich fossil site yielded 32 species of mammals, among which autochthonous species of the European Upper Villafranchian coexist with canids (Canis), ovibovines (Praeovibos) and giraffids (Mitilanotherium) from Asia. Typical African species, such as the brown hyena (Hyaena brunnea) and the bush pig (Potamochoerus) are also present.
This assemblage is taxonomically and palaeobiogeographically unique, and suggests that fewer dispersal events than was previously thought (possibly only one close to 2.0 Ma) are responsible for the changes seen around 1.9-1.7 Ma ago in the fauna of the two continents.
The presence of remains of a giant tortoise in the lower Pleistocene site of Fonelas P-1 (Guadix Basin, Betic Ranges; Granada, southeastern Spain) is reported and analyzed herein for the first time. ...This finding represents the youngest evidence of a large tortoise in continental Europe, dating the age of extinction of this successful lineage as several hundred thousand years younger than previously thought. So far, the most recent record known for continental Europe was at least 400,000years older than the occurrence reported herein (Vaterá, Greece), that for the Spanish record being about 1.3millionyears older (Las Higueruelas). This finding is justified as the youngest evidence of Titanochelon, a genus recorded in Europe since the beginning of the Miocene, which includes the largest terrestrial turtles known for the entire European fossil record. The decrease in the biogeographical distribution area and the final extinction of these temperature-sensitive animals in Europe is here recognized as a result of the climate changes documented during the Pliocene and lower Pleistocene. The identification of taxa with environmental and ecological requirements as restrictive as those known for the extant and extinct large tortoises, living in continental Europe 2.0Ma, has important consequences. Thus, although the paleoclimatic inferences generally assumed for the whole of Europe interpret cooler and drier conditions at the end of the Pliocene, by the increase of the seasonality and the beginning of the glacial activity in the Northern Hemisphere, the record of Fonelas P-1 indicates that, in southern Europe or, at least, in the endorheic basins of the Betic Ranges, warmer climatic conditions than in the rest of the continent continued being present in these chronologies of the lower Pleistocene, being favorable for the persistence of these large tortoises.
•A giant tortoise is recognized in the Spanish lower Pleistocene site of Fonelas P-1.•This finding shows the youngest evidence of a large tortoise in continental Europe.•It belongs to Titanochelon, a successful genus recorded since the early Miocene.•The crisis and extinction of this lineage is recognized as result of climate changes.•Favorable climatic conditions continued in the lower Pleistocene of the Betic Ranges.
Evidence of human activity and hominin remains are very scarce inland on the Iberian Peninsula. This fact raises the issue of the scarcity of evidence that Paleolithic
Homo sapiens
occupied this area ...outside of the littoral margins (Atlantic, Cantabrian, and Mediterranean coasts). Here, we comparatively describe a human right adult navicular bone recovered in the Cueva de los Torrejones site, located in the village of Tamajón (Guadalajara, Spain). This fossil was preliminarily established as belonging to
Homo
cf.
neanderthalensis
, due to the late Pleistocene faunal association, mainly because of the presence of
Crocuta crocuta
and
Panthera pardus
. The metrical and morphological study of the navicular T93-S3.27 from Cueva de los Torrejones clearly differentiates it from Neandertals and their ancestors, the hominins from Sima de los Huesos, allowing for this fossil to be taxonomically assigned with confidence as
H. sapiens
. The navicular from the Cueva de los Torrejones is absolutely and relatively medio-laterally narrow with a low wedging index as those of fossil and modern
H. sapiens
, and clearly different of Neandertals. The increased discoveries and publications of new naviculars belonging to genus
Homo
, together with the findings of
P. pardus
and
C. crocuta
in more recent chronologies in the Iberian Peninsula, are compatible with this reevaluation. We propose a probable chronology for this fossil between 12 and 15 ka and ca. 25 ka, based on the biostratigraphy and the oldest presence of
H. sapiens
in the Iberian Peninsula. This work confirms the human presence within the Iberian Peninsula during the Upper Paleolithic and reopens the question of the peopling of the inner Peninsula during this period.
This paper reports a new species of dog (
Canis accitanus nov. sp.) from the Fonelas P-1 site (dated close to the Plio-Pleistocene boundary) in Granada, Spain. This new taxon shows cranial features ...more similar to coyote-like dogs (
C.
lepophagus,
C.
priscolatrans,
C.
arnensis or
C.
latrans) than to wolf-like dogs (
C.
etruscus,
C.
mosbachensis or
C.
lupus), such as a long and narrow muzzle, a little-developed sagittal crest and frontal bones raised only a little above the rostrum. However, it also shows a series of autapomorphic characteristics in its upper dentition, essentially in the first upper molar, which reflects a trophic adaptation towards a more abrasive diet than that eaten by other species of its genus. This new dog is the smallest representative of the genus
Canis ever recorded for the European Pliocene or Pleistocene.
Ce travail décrit une nouvelle espèce de Canidé (
Canis accitanus nov. sp.) du gisement de Fonelas P-1 (daté de la limite Plio-Pléistocène) à Grenade, Espagne. Ce nouveau taxon présente des traits crâniens plus proches de ceux des coyotes (
C.
lepophagus,
C.
priscolatrans,
C.
arnensis ou
C.
latrans) que de ceux des loups (
C.
etruscus,
C.
mosbachensis or
C.
lupus), tel qu’un museau étroit et long, une crête sagittale peu développée et des os frontaux ne s’élevant que très légèrement au dessus du rostre. Cependant, il présente aussi un ensemble de caractéristiques autapomorphiques au niveau de la dentition supérieure, notamment la première molaire, qui présente une adaptation trophique à un régime plus abrasif que celui d’autres espèces de son genre. Ce nouveau canidé est le plus petit représentant du genre
Canis jamais décrit dans le Pliocène ou le Pléistocène européens.
The interior of the Iberian Peninsula has orographic conditions that make this territory especially vulnerable to Quaternary climate oscillations and which actually could have made it decisive for ...Paleolithic human populations at critical points. For this reason, the information provided by paleontological sites is important for reconstructing climatic and environmental conditions during the Late Pleistocene and understanding how they influenced the species that inhabited them, including humans. Nevertheless, the archaeo-paleontological record is scarce in central Iberia for the Late Pleistocene. A central Iberian site that is key to addressing this issue is Cueva de los Torrejones, which was discovered and excavated during the nineties. Clues indicating the presence of Neandertal populations near the cave site were announced during prior field excavations, including Neandertal remains, Middle Paleolithic artifacts, and evidence of anthropic exploitation of faunal resources at the site. Here we report the new results from the recent excavations and research, including detailed studies on stratigraphy, micromorphology, macro and microvertebrate paleontology, physical and molecular anthropology, taphonomy and zooarchaeology, and analysis of lithic and pottery remains. Our research has led to the detection of three Prehistoric chronologies recorded at the site. The oldest episode corresponds to between MIS 5 and MIS 4 in which the cave was used by carnivores. The second episode is represented by a faunal association dated to 30.0 ka cal BP and is indicative of cooler and more arid environmental conditions and, therefore, compatible with the worsening climate detected previously for MIS 3 in this area. The last episode corresponds to the Chalcolithic, directly dated to ∼5000 cal BP in which humans used the cavity for funerary purposes. The DNA analysis of the human remain was assigned to mtDNA haplogroup K, which was originated in the Near East and reached western Europe through the Neolithic expansion. Human occupation during the Paleolithic has been ruled out, including Paleolithic human remains and any kind of anthropic intervention on the Hermann’s tortoise and leopard as was previously proposed at the site.
•Cueva de los Torrejones is located in Central Iberia.•Three Prehistoric chronologies have been detected: MIS4/5, MIS3 and Chalcolithic.•Paleoecological information on the Middle-Upper Paleolithic transition is provided.•We document a climatic deterioration during the mid-MIS 3 in Central Iberia.•Paleolithic human remains and cut marks on tortoise and leopard have been ruled out.
The chronology of the first colonization of Europe by hominids has been a rather controversial issue until this decade, with most palaeoanthropologists claiming that there was no significant ...habitation until Middle Pleistocene times. However, recent findings in Spain, Italy, Georgia and China, as well as the re-evaluation of the evidence from Java and Israel, indicate an earlier arrival ofHomoin Eurasia, during the Lower Pleistocene. The systematic revision of European assemblages of large mammals has shown a faunal break at the Plio–Pleistocene boundary, marked by the arrival of African and Asian species, which allows the tracing of the ecological and biogeographical scenario in which the first dispersal of hominids out of Africa took place. African immigrants include among others two carnivore species, the giant hyaenaPachycrocuta brevirostrisand the sabre-toothMegantereon whitei. Sabre-tooth cats were extinct in East Africa by 1·5Ma, which coincides with the emergence of the Acheulean Industrial Complex, but inhabited Eurasia until 0·5Ma. Given thatM. whiteiwas a hypercarnivorous predator that presumably left, on the carcasses of the ungulates hunted, large amounts of flesh and bone nutrients within, its arrival in Eurasia opened broad opportunities for scavenging by hominids and helps to explain the success of the Oldowan tools until 0·5Ma.
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