There exists a fundamental as well as practical interest in being able to accurately forecast the future evolution of Earth's magnetic field at decadal to secular ranges. This work enables such ...forecasts by combining geomagnetic data with an Earth-like numerical model of a convection-driven fluid dynamo. The underlying data assimilation framework builds on recent progress in inverse geodynamo modelling, a method which estimates an internal dynamic structure for Earth's core from a snapshot of the magnetic field and its instantaneous rate of change at the surface, and takes advantage of linear relationships and long-range correlations between observed and hidden state variables. Here the method is further evolved into a single-epoch ensemble Kalman filter, in order to initialise at a given epoch an ensemble of states compatible with the observations and representative of the uncertainties in the estimation of hidden quantities. The ensemble dynamics, obtained by subsequent numerical integration of the prognostic model equations, are found to be governed by a thermal wind balance or equilibrium between buoyancy forces, the Coriolis force and the pressure gradient. The resulting core fluid flow pattern is a quasi-steady eccentric gyre organised in a column parallel to Earth's rotation axis, in equilibrium with a longitudinal hemispheric convective density anomaly pattern. The flow provides induction for the magnetic field, which also undergoes a realistic amount of diffusion. Predictions of the present magnetic field from data taken within the past century show that the ensemble has an average retaining good consistency with the true geomagnetic evolution and an acceptable spread well representative of prediction errors, up to at least a secular range. The predictability of the geodynamo thus appears to significantly exceed previous theoretical expectations based on the chaotic divergence of ensemble members. The assimilation generally outperforms the linear mathematical extrapolations from a 30-yr prediction range onwards, with a 40 per cent improvement in Earth-surface error at a secular range. The geomagnetic axial dipole decay observed over the past two centuries is predicted to continue at a similar pace in the next century, with a further loss of
$1.1\pm 0.3 \hspace{2.84526pt}\mathrm{\mu T}$
by year 2115. The focal (or minimum intensity) point of the South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly is predicted to enter the South Pacific region in the next century, with the anomaly itself further deepening and widening. By year 2065, the minimum intensity is predicted to decrease by
$1.46\pm 0.4 \hspace{2.84526pt}\mathrm{\mu T}$
at the Earth surface and the focal point to move 12.8 ± 1.4 deg westwards with a slight northward component. This corresponds to a drift rate of 0.26 deg yr−1, similar to the typical geomagnetic westward drift observed over the past four centuries. The same drift rate is also predicted until 2115 with a further (but more uncertain) intensity decrease.
•Thermal conductivity decreases with the addition of plant aggregates.•Earth material is highly water vapour permeable.•Sorption–desorption isotherms are assessed with DVS and saturated salt solution ...methods.•MBV of earth-based materials is excellent.
Earth is a material presenting good hygric properties, which is an important point as comfort and indoor air quality have become major issues. Nowadays, the energy efficiency of a construction is also crucial, but the thermal insulation provided by an earth brick is quite low. Therefore, some plant aggregates were added to lighten the material, thus decreasing its thermal conductivity. The hygrothermal properties of seven formulations made of earth with 0, 3 or 6% by weight content of barley straw, hemp shiv or corn cob were assessed. The properties determined were thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity, water vapour permeability, and sorption–desorption isotherms measured with the saturated salt solution and DVS methods. The theoretical MBV was also calculated. The study showed a large decrease in thermal conductivity when a large volume of plant aggregates was added while plant aggregates incorporation conversely affected the thermal inertia parameters. Concerning water vapour permeability, as earth is a very permeable material, the addition of plant aggregates did not improve this property. The sorption capacity of bio-based earth materials was slightly increased in comparison with earth alone. Finally, the calculated MBV showed the excellent buffering capacity of this kind of material, with and without plant aggregates.
SUMMARY
Dynamo action in the Earth’s outer core is expected to be controlled by a balance between pressure, Coriolis, buoyancy and Lorentz forces, with marginal contributions from inertia and viscous ...forces. Current numerical simulations of the geodynamo, however, operate at much larger inertia and viscosity because of computational limitations. This casts some doubt on the physical relevance of these models.
Our work aims at finding dynamo models in a moderate computational regime which reproduce the leading-order force balance of the Earth. By performing a systematic parameter space survey with Ekman numbers in the range 10−6 ≤ E ≤ 10−4, we study the variations of the force balance when changing the forcing (Rayleigh number, Ra) and the ratio between viscous and magnetic diffusivities (magnetic Prandtl number, Pm). For dipole-dominated dynamos, we observe that the force balance is structurally robust throughout the investigated parameter space, exhibiting a quasi-geostrophic (QG) balance (balance between Coriolis and pressure forces) at zeroth order, followed by a first-order Magneto-Archimedean-Coriolis (MAC) balance between the ageostrophic Coriolis, buoyancy and Lorentz forces. At second order, this balance is disturbed by contributions from inertia and viscous forces. Dynamos with a different sequence of the forces, where inertia and/or viscosity replace the Lorentz force in the first-order force balance, can only be found close to the onset of dynamo action and in the multipolar regime. To assess the agreement of the model force balance with that expected in the Earth’s core, we introduce a parameter quantifying the distance between the first- and second-order forces. Analysis of this parameter shows that the strongest-field dynamos can be obtained close to the onset of convection (Ra close to critical) and in situations of reduced magnetic diffusivity (high Pm). Decreasing the Ekman number gradually expands this regime towards higher supercriticalities and lower values of Pm.
Our study illustrates that most classical numerical dynamos are controlled by a QG-MAC balance, while cases where viscosity and inertia play a dominant role are the exception rather than the norm.
Lung transplant recipients present an increased risk for severe complications associated with respiratory infections. We conducted a review of the literature examining the clinical relationship ...between viral respiratory infection and graft complications. Thirty‐four studies describing the clinical impact of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, enterovirus, coronavirus, bocavirus or adenovirus were identified. The detection rate of respiratory viral infection ranged from 1.4% to 60%. Viruses were detected five times more frequently when respiratory symptoms were present odds ratio (OR) = 4.97; 95% CI = 2.11–11.68. Based on available observations, we could not observe an association between respiratory viral infection and acute rejection (OR = 1.35; 95% CI = 0.41–4.43). We found a pooled incidence of 18% (9/50) of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) in virus‐positive cases compared to 11.6% (37/319) in virus‐negative cases; however, limited number of BOS events did not allow to confirm the association. Our review confirms a causal relationship between respiratory viruses and respiratory symptoms, but cannot confirm a link between respiratory viruses and acute lung rejection. This is related in part to the heterogeneity and limitations of available studies. The link with BOS needs also to be reassessed in appropriate prospective studies.
The authors find, through a review of the literature, a causal relationship between respiratory viral infections and respiratory symptoms among lung transplant recipients.
We study numerically an extensive set of dynamo models in rotating spherical shells, varying all relevant control parameters by at least two orders of magnitude. Convection is driven by a fixed ...temperature contrast between rigid boundaries. There are two distinct classes of solutions with strong and weak dipole contributions to the magnetic field, respectively. Non-dipolar dynamos are found when inertia plays a significant role in the force balance. In the dipolar regime the critical magnetic Reynolds number for self-sustained dynamos is of order 50, independent of the magnetic Prandtl number Pm. However, dynamos at low Pm exist only at sufficiently low Ekman number E. For dynamos in the dipolar regime we attempt to establish scaling laws that fit our numerical results. Assuming that diffusive effects do not play a primary role, we introduce non-dimensional parameters that are independent of any diffusivity. These are a modified Rayleigh number based on heat (or buoyancy) flux Ra*Q, the Rossby number Ro measuring the flow velocity, the Lorentz number Lo measuring magnetic field strength, and a modified Nusselt number Nu* for the advected heat flow. To first approximation, all our dynamo results can be collapsed into simple power-law dependencies on the modified Rayleigh number, with approximate exponents of 2/5, 1/2 and 1/3 for the Rossby number, modified Nusselt number and Lorentz number, respectively. Residual dependencies on the parameters related to diffusion (E, Pm, Prandtl number Pr) are weak. Our scaling laws are in agreement with the assumption that the magnetic field strength is controlled by the available power and not necessarily by a force balance. The Elsasser number Λ, which is the conventional measure for the ratio of Lorentz force to Coriolis force, is found to vary widely. We try to assess the relative importance of the various forces by studying sources and sinks of enstrophy (squared vorticity). In general Coriolis and buoyancy forces are of the same order, inertia and viscous forces make smaller and variable contributions, and the Lorentz force is highly variable. Ignoring a possible weak dependence on the Prandtl numbers or the Ekman number, a surprising prediction is that the magnetic field strength is independent both of conductivity and of rotation rate and is basically controlled by the buoyancy flux. Estimating the buoyancy flux in the Earth's core using our Rossby number scaling and a typical velocity inferred from geomagnetic secular variations, we predict a small growth rate and old age of the inner core and obtain a reasonable magnetic field strength of order 1 mT inside the core. From the observed heat flow in Jupiter, we predict an internal field of 8 mT, in agreement with Jupiter's external field being 10 times stronger than that of the Earth.
Background. In addition to the human coronaviruses (HCoVs) OC43 and 229E, which have been known for decades to cause infection in humans, 2 new members of this genus have recently been identified: ...HCoVs NL63 and HKU1. Their impact as a cause of respiratory tract disease in adults at risk for complications needs to be established. Methods. We prospectively assessed the clinical impact of coronavirus infection (excluding cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome) among hospitalized adults. All patients with respiratory disease for whom bronchoalveolar lavage was performed were screened by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction for the presence of all 4 HCoVs. Results. HCoV was identified in 29 (5.4%) of 540 bronchoalveolar lavage fluid specimens from 279 subjects (mean age, 51 years; 63% male). HCoV OC43 was identified most frequently (12 isolates), followed by 229E (7 isolates), NL63 (6 isolates), and HKU1 (4 isolates). In all, 372 (69%) of 540 bronchoalveolar lavage fluid specimens were negative for bacteria, and 2 persons were coinfected with other respiratory viruses. Transplantation was the most common underlying condition. Of the 29 patients who had HCoV identified in their bronchoalveolar lavage fluid specimens, 9 (31%) were hospitalized in the intensive care unit, 22 (76%) presented to the hospital with acute respiratory symptoms, 16 (55%) presented with cough and/or sputum, 13 (45%) presented with dyspnea, 16 (55%) had experienced prior respiratory infection, and 18 (62%) had a new infiltrate that was visible on chest radiograph. The most frequent final diagnosis was a lower respiratory tract infection. Conclusions. The recently discovered HCoVs NL63 and HKU1 contribute significantly to the overall spectrum of coronavirus infection. Our study also suggests that coronaviruses contribute to respiratory symptoms in most cases.
This paper deals with the use of a weathered basic oxygen furnace (BOF) slag as a main constituent in hydraulic road binder. The original idea of this study was to associate the BOF slag with ground ...granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS). The free lime contained in BOF slag activated the GGBFS. Small amounts of catalyst were added to the mixtures in order to accelerate the setting of this ternary blended binder. Before studying the characteristics and the influence of the proportion of each constituent, the chemical, mineralogical and physical characteristics of BOF slag were analyzed. X-ray diffraction showed that the main minerals present were calcium silicates (βC
2S and C
3S), dicalcium ferrite (C
2F), lime (CaO), a solid solution of magnesium iron oxide (MgO
x
FeO
y
), an alumino ferrite calcium phase (C
4AF) and, due to the weathering, calcite (CaCO
3) and portlandite (Ca(OH)
2). The activity of BOF slag in cement-based mortars was evaluated and the results show that BOF slag has little hydraulic activity and apparently no pozzolanic properties. These results were confirmed by XRD on hydrated BOF slag. Only CaO, C
3S and C
4AF react with water and, as the C
3S and C
4AF contents were relatively low, the hydraulicity of the BOF slag under study was low. However, BOF slag contains 7% of Ca(OH)
2 and, in spite of the weathering, still 5% of CaO. The production of a ternary blended binder containing a mixture of BOF slag, GGBFS and catalyst was a success. The optimization of the binder composition showed that it was possible to produce an HRB10 (the compressive strength of standardized mortars higher than 10
MPa at 56 days) by mixing 52.5% of GGBFS, 42.5% of BOF slag and 5% of catalyst. Moreover, the stability study showed that there was no problem of expansion with such a binder.
Summary
We invert for motions at the surface of Earth’s core under spatial and temporal constraints that depart from the mathematical smoothings usually employed to ensure spectral convergence of the ...flow solutions. Our spatial constraints are derived from geodynamo simulations. The model is advected in time using stochastic differential equations coherent with the occurrence of geomagnetic jerks. Together with a Kalman filter, these spatial and temporal constraints enable the estimation of core flows as a function of length and time-scales. From synthetic experiments, we find it crucial to account for subgrid errors to obtain an unbiased reconstruction. This is achieved through an augmented state approach. We show that a significant contribution from diffusion to the geomagnetic secular variation should be considered even on short periods, because diffusion is dynamically related to the rapidly changing flow below the core surface. Our method, applied to geophysical observations over the period 1950–2015, gives access to reasonable solutions in terms of misfit to the data. We highlight an important signature of diffusion in the Eastern equatorial area, where the eccentric westward gyre reaches low latitudes, in relation with important up/downwellings. Our results also confirm that the dipole decay, observed over the past decades, is primarily driven by advection processes. Our method allows us to provide probability densities for forecasts of the core flow and the secular variation.
SUMMARY
We make use of recent geodynamo simulations to propose a reduced stochastic model of the dynamics at the surface of Earth’s core. On decadal and longer periods, this model replicates the most ...energetic eigen directions of the geodynamo computation. Towards shorter timescales, it proposes a compensation for weaknesses of these simulations. This model furthermore accounts for the signature, in the geomagnetic secular variation, of errors of representativeness associated with unresolved processes. We incorporate the reduced stochastic model into a geomagnetic data assimilation algorithm—an augmented state ensemble Kalman filter—and apply it to re-analyse magnetic field changes over the period 1880–2015. Errors of representativeness appear to be responsible for an important fraction of the observed changes in the secular variation, as it is the case in the dynamo simulation.
Recovered core surface motions are primarily symmetric with respect to the equator. We observe the persistence of the eccentric westward gyre over the whole studied era and vortices that partly follow isocontours of the radial magnetic field at the core surface. Our flow models provide a good fit to decadal changes in the length-of-day and predict its interannual variations over the period 1940–2005. The largest core flow acceleration patterns are found in an equatorial belt below 10° in latitude and are associated with non-axisymmetric features. No systematic longitudinal drift of acceleration patterns is found, even over the past decades where satellite data are available. The acceleration of the high-latitude westward jet in the Pacific hemisphere is, during the satellite era, a factor 5 smaller than previously reported and its structure shows some evidence for equatorial asymmetry. The era of continuous satellite records provides enhanced contrast on the rapid core flow variations. The proposed assimilation algorithm offers the prospect of evaluating Earth-likeness of geodynamo simulations.
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