West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many ...statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m-km, days-weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.
The PSORS1 locus in the major histocompatibility complex region is the major genetic determinant for psoriasis vulgaris. Within the PSORS1 region reside at least three potential candidate genes for ...psoriasis susceptibility. Specific allelic variants of the genes HLA-Cw*6, HCR*WWCC, and CDSN*5 are strongly associated with psoriasis vulgaris and are in strong linkage disequilibrium with each other. We have genotyped the three psoriasis vulgaris susceptibility alleles of the PSORS1 locus in two clinical variants of psoriasis (guttate psoriasis and palmoplantar pustulosis) to study whether PSORS1 is also involved in the pathogenesis of these variants. We also asked whether these two clinical subgroups could help us to distinguish the causative gene within the high-risk PSORS1 haplotype. The association of guttate psoriasis with the three PSORS1 susceptibility alleles was similar and even stronger than seen with psoriasis vulgaris. Palmoplantar pustulosis, however, did not show association with any of the three candidate genes at this locus. Finally, no correlation with the age of onset for disease was observed. Our results show conclusively that psoriasis vulgaris and guttate psoriasis have a similar genetic basis for their association to PSORS1, whereas palmoplantar pustulosis appears to be a distinct disorder.
We tested whether maternal hypertensive disorders in pregnancy predict age-related change in cognitive ability in the offspring up to old age.
Using mothers' blood pressure and urinary protein ...measurements from the maternity clinics and birth hospitals, we defined normotensive or hypertensive pregnancies in mothers of 398 men, who participated in the Helsinki Birth Cohort 1934-1944 Study. The men underwent the Finnish Defence Forces basic ability test twice: first during compulsory military service at age 20.1 (SD = 1.4) years and then in a retest at age 68.5 (SD = 2.9) years. The test yields a total score and subscores for tests measuring verbal, arithmetic, and visuospatial reasoning.
Men born after pregnancies complicated by a hypertensive disorder, compared with men born after normotensive pregnancies, scored 4.36 (95% confidence interval, 1.17-7.55) points lower on total cognitive ability at 68.5 years and displayed a greater decline in total cognitive ability (2.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.07-5.06) after 20.1 years. Of the subscores, associations were strongest for arithmetic reasoning.
Maternal hypertensive disorders in pregnancy predict lower cognitive ability and greater cognitive decline up to old age. A propensity to lower cognitive ability and decline up to old age may have prenatal origins.
Impulsivity is a core feature of borderline personality disorder (BPD) and is most frequently measured using self-rating scales. There is a need to find objective, valid and reliable measures of ...impulsivity. This study aimed to examine performance of participants with BPD compared with healthy controls on delay and probabilistic discounting tasks and the stop-signal task (SST), which are objective measures of choice and motor impulsivity, respectively.
A total of 20 participants with BPD and 21 healthy control participants completed delay and probabilistic discounting tasks and the SST. They also completed the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS), a self-rating measure of impulsivity.
Participants with BPD showed significantly greater delay discounting than controls, manifest as a greater tendency to accept the immediately available lesser reward rather than waiting longer for a greater reward. Similarly they showed significantly greater discounting of rewards by the probability of payout, which correlated with past childhood trauma. Participants with BPD were found to choose the more certain and/or immediate rewards, irrespective of the value. On the SST the BPD and control groups did not differ significantly, demonstrating no difference in motor impulsivity. There was no significant difference between groups on self-reported impulsivity as measured by the BIS.
Measures of impulsivity show that while motor impulsivity was not significantly different in participants with BPD compared with controls, choice or reward-related impulsivity was significantly affected in those with BPD. This suggests that choice impulsivity but not motor impulsivity is a core feature of BPD.
Nonperforating ballistic impacts on thoracic armor can cause blunt injuries, known as behind-armor blunt trauma (BABT). To evaluate the potential for this injury, the back face deformation (BFD) ...imprinted into a clay backing is measured; however, the link between BFD and potential for injury is uncertain. Computational human body models (HBMs) have the potential to provide an improved understanding of BABT injury risk to inform armor design but require assessment with relevant loading scenarios. In this study, a methodology was developed to apply BABT loading to a computational thorax model, enhanced with refined finite element mesh and high-deformation rate mechanical properties. The model was assessed using an epidemiological BABT survivor database. BABT impact boundary conditions for 10 cases from the database were recreated using experimentally measured deformation for specific armor/projectile combinations, and applied to the thorax model using a novel prescribed displacement methodology. The computational thorax model demonstrated numerical stability under BABT impact conditions. The predicted number of rib fractures, the magnitude of pulmonary contusion, and injury rank, increased with armor BFD, back face velocity, and input energy to the thorax. In three of the 10 cases, the model overpredicted the number of rib fractures, attributed to impact location positional sensitivity and limited details from the database. The integration of an HBM with the BABT loading method predicted rib fractures and injury ranks that were in good agreement with available medical records, providing a potential tool for future armor evaluation and injury assessment.
The proportion of women who attempt vaginal delivery after prior cesarean delivery has decreased largely because of concern about safety. The absolute and relative risks associated with a trial of ...labor in women with a history of cesarean delivery, as compared with elective repeated cesarean delivery without labor, are uncertain.
We conducted a prospective four-year observational study of all women with a singleton gestation and a prior cesarean delivery at 19 academic medical centers. Maternal and perinatal outcomes were compared between women who underwent a trial of labor and women who had an elective repeated cesarean delivery without labor.
Vaginal delivery was attempted by 17,898 women, and 15,801 women underwent elective repeated cesarean delivery without labor. Symptomatic uterine rupture occurred in 124 women who underwent a trial of labor (0.7 percent). Hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy occurred in no infants whose mothers underwent elective repeated cesarean delivery and in 12 infants born at term whose mothers underwent a trial of labor (P<0.001). Seven of these cases of hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy followed uterine rupture (absolute risk, 0.46 per 1000 women at term undergoing a trial of labor), including two neonatal deaths. The rate of endometritis was higher in women undergoing a trial of labor than in women undergoing repeated elective cesarean delivery (2.9 percent vs. 1.8 percent), as was the rate of blood transfusion (1.7 percent vs. 1.0 percent). The frequency of hysterectomy and of maternal death did not differ significantly between groups (0.2 percent vs. 0.3 percent, and 0.02 percent vs. 0.04 percent, respectively).
A trial of labor after prior cesarean delivery is associated with a greater perinatal risk than is elective repeated cesarean delivery without labor, although absolute risks are low. This information is relevant for counseling women about their choices after a cesarean section.
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bstract
Heavy Neutral Leptons (HNLs) are hypothetical particles predicted by many extensions of the Standard Model. These particles can, among other things, explain the origin of neutrino masses, ...generate the observed matter-antimatter asymmetry in the Universe and provide a dark matter candidate.
The SHiP experiment will be able to search for HNLs produced in decays of heavy mesons and travelling distances ranging between
O
(50 m) and tens of kilometers before decaying. We present the sensitivity of the SHiP experiment to a number of HNL’s benchmark models and provide a way to calculate the SHiP’s sensitivity to HNLs for arbitrary patterns of flavour mixings. The corresponding tools and data files are also made publicly available.
While existing indices of gender equality measure the role of women’s status and position, they inadequately contextualize the broader construct of patriarchy, a social system that underlies many ...gender inequitable practices. An index capturing patriarchy may afford increased understanding of this social system, and may serve to complement other gender equality indices. This paper involves the development and testing of a novel composite measure, the India Patriarchy Index, to quantify the social and ideological construct of patriarchy using empirical data on family structure and gender roles. Using data from India’s National Family Health Survey, we develop an India Patriarchy Index to measure gendered social positioning in families based on sex by age, patrilocality, sex ratio imbalance among offspring, and gendered economic roles. Psychometric testing demonstrates good internal reliability and construct validity of this index, with validity indicated by its association with three gender equality indices used in India. Spatial and temporal analyses further indicate much state-level variation in India Patriarchy Index scores as well as slow change on this indicator over time, based on time trend analyses from 1992–93 to 2015–16. Results demonstrate the utility of the India Patriarchy Index to measure and track gender equality progress in India.
To identify new susceptibility loci for psoriasis, we undertook a genome-wide association study of 594,224 SNPs in 2,622 individuals with psoriasis and 5,667 controls. We identified associations at ...eight previously unreported genomic loci. Seven loci harbored genes with recognized immune functions (IL28RA, REL, IFIH1, ERAP1, TRAF3IP2, NFKBIA and TYK2). These associations were replicated in 9,079 European samples (six loci with a combined P < 5 × 10−8 and two loci with a combined P < 5 × 10−7). We also report compelling evidence for an interaction between the HLA-C and ERAP1 loci (combined P = 6.95 × 10−6). ERAP1 plays an important role in MHC class I peptide processing. ERAP1 variants only influenced psoriasis susceptibility in individuals carrying the HLA-C risk allele. Our findings implicate pathways that integrate epidermal barrier dysfunction with innate and adaptive immune dysregulation in psoriasis pathogenesis.
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