Great advances have been made in the last decade in quantifying and understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) with ground, atmospheric, and space ...observations. However, although global GPP estimates exist, each data set relies upon assumptions and none of the available data are based only on measurements. Consequently, there is no consensus on the global total GPP and large uncertainties exist in its benchmarking. The objective of this review is to assess how the different available data sets predict the spatiotemporal patterns of GPP, identify the differences among data sets, and highlight the main advantages/disadvantages of each data set. We compare GPP estimates for the historical period (1990–2009) from two observation‐based data sets (Model Tree Ensemble and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) to coupled carbon‐climate models and terrestrial carbon cycle models from the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project and TRENDY projects and to a new hybrid data set (CARBONES). Results show a large range in the mean global GPP estimates. The different data sets broadly agree on GPP seasonal cycle in terms of phasing, while there is still discrepancy on the amplitude. For interannual variability (IAV) and trends, there is a clear separation between the observation‐based data that show little IAV and trend, while the process‐based models have large GPP variability and significant trends. These results suggest that there is an urgent need to improve observation‐based data sets and develop carbon cycle modeling with processes that are currently treated either very simplistically to correctly estimate present GPP and better quantify the future uptake of carbon dioxide by the world's vegetation.
Key Points
At global scale, direct measurements of GPP do not exist
Large uncertainties exist on terrestrial global GPP benchmarking
Models show large variability in mean global GPP estimates
Photosynthesis is the process by which plants harvest sunlight to produce sugars from carbon dioxide and water. It is the primary source of energy for all life on Earth; hence it is important to ...understand how this process responds to climate change and human impact. However, model-based estimates of gross primary production (GPP, output from photosynthesis) are highly uncertain, in particular over heavily managed agricultural areas. Recent advances in spectroscopy enable the space-based monitoring of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from terrestrial plants. Here we demonstrate that spaceborne SIF retrievals provide a direct measure of the GPP of cropland and grassland ecosystems. Such a strong link with crop photosynthesis is not evident for traditional remotely sensed vegetation indices, nor for more complex carbon cycle models. We use SIF observations to provide a global perspective on agricultural productivity. Our SIF-based crop GPP estimates are 50-75% higher than results from state-of-the-art carbon cycle models over, for example, the US Corn Belt and the Indo-Gangetic Plain, implying that current models severely underestimate the role of management. Our results indicate that SIF data can help us improve our global models for more accurate projections of agricultural productivity and climate impact on crop yields. Extension of our approach to other ecosystems, along with increased observational capabilities for SIF in the near future, holds the prospect of reducing uncertainties in the modeling of the current and future carbon cycle.
There are massive carbon stocks stored in permafrost-affected soils due to the 3-D soil movement process called cryoturbation. For a reliable projection of the past, recent and future Arctic carbon ...balance, and hence climate, a reliable concept for representing cryoturbation in a land surface model (LSM) is required. The basis of the underlying transport processes is pedon-scale heterogeneity of soil hydrological and thermal properties as well as insulating layers, such as snow and vegetation. Today we still lack a concept of how to reliably represent pedon-scale properties and processes in a LSM. One possibility could be a statistical approach. This perspective paper demonstrates the importance of sub-grid heterogeneity in permafrost soils as a pre-requisite to implement any lateral transport parametrization. Representing such heterogeneity at the sub-pixel size of a LSM is the next logical step of model advancements. As a result of a theoretical experiment, heterogeneity of thermal and hydrological soil properties alone lead to a remarkable initial sub-grid range of subsoil temperature of 2C, and active-layer thickness of 150 cm in East Siberia. These results show the way forward in representing combined lateral and vertical transport of water and soil in LSMs.
Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling ...and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance‐induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well‐defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta‐analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land‐cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground‐based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub‐)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks.
Bryophyte and lichen cover on the forest floor at high latitudes exerts an insulating effect on the ground. In this way, the cover decreases mean annual soil temperature and can protect permafrost ...soil. Climate change, however, may change bryophyte and lichen cover, with effects on the permafrost state and related carbon balance. It is, therefore, crucial to predict how the bryophyte and lichen cover will react to environmental change at the global scale. To date, current global land surface models contain only empirical representations of the bryophyte and lichen cover, which makes it impractical to predict the future state and function of bryophytes and lichens. For this reason, we integrate a process-based model of bryophyte and lichen growth into the global land surface model JSBACH (Jena Scheme for Biosphere–Atmosphere Coupling in Hamburg). The model simulates bryophyte and lichen cover on upland sites. Wetlands are not included. We take into account the dynamic nature of the thermal properties of the bryophyte and lichen cover and their relation to environmental factors. Subsequently, we compare simulations with and without bryophyte and lichen cover to quantify the insulating effect of the organisms on the soil. We find an average cooling effect of the bryophyte and lichen cover of 2.7 K on temperature in the topsoil for the region north of 50° N under the current climate. Locally, a cooling of up to 5.7 K may be reached. Moreover, we show that using a simple, empirical representation of the bryophyte and lichen cover without dynamic properties only results in an average cooling of around 0.5 K. This suggests that (a) bryophytes and lichens have a significant impact on soil temperature in high-latitude ecosystems and (b) a process-based description of their thermal properties is necessary for a realistic representation of the cooling effect. The advanced land surface scheme, including a dynamic bryophyte and lichen model, will be the basis for an improved future projection of land–atmosphere heat and carbon exchange.
Soil respiration represents the second largest CO₂ flux of the terrestrial biosphere and amounts 10 times higher than the current rate of fossil-fuel combustion. Thus, even a small change in soil ...respiration could significantly intensify--or mitigate--current atmospheric increases of CO₂, with potential feedbacks to climate change. Consequently, to understand future dynamics of the earth system, it is mandatory to precisely understand the response of soil respiration to changing environmental factors. Among those changing factors, temperature is the one with clearest and most certain future trend. The relationship of soil respiration to environmental factors and particular temperature has been tackled at a variety of scales--from laboratory via field to global scale, with each of the approaches having its particular problems, where results from different scales are sometimes contradictory. Here, we give an overview of modeling approaches to soil respiration, discuss the dependencies of soil respiration on various environmental factors, and summarize the most important pitfalls to consider when analyzing soil respiration at the respective scale. We then introduce a model-data synthesis framework that should be able to reconcile and finally integrate apparently contradictory results from the various scales.
The Budyko framework elegantly reduces the complex spatial patterns of actual evapotranspiration and runoff to a general function of two variables: mean annual precipitation (MAP) and net radiation. ...While the methodology has first‐order skill, departures from a globally averaged curve can be significant and may be usefully attributed to additional controls such as vegetation type. This paper explores the magnitude of such departures as detected from flux tower measurements of ecosystem‐scale evapotranspiration, and investigates their attribution to site characteristics (biome, seasonal rainfall distribution, and frozen precipitation). The global synthesis (based on 167 sites with 764 tower‐years) shows smooth transition from water‐limited to energy‐limited control, broadly consistent with catchment‐scale relations and explaining 62% of the across site variation in evaporative index (the fraction of MAP consumed by evapotranspiration). Climate and vegetation types act as additional controls, combining to explain an additional 13% of the variation in evaporative index. Warm temperate winter wet sites (Mediterranean) exhibit a reduced evaporative index, 9% lower than the average value expected based on dryness index, implying elevated runoff. Seasonal hydrologic surplus explains a small but significant fraction of variance in departures of evaporative index from that expected for a given dryness index. Surprisingly, grasslands on average have a higher evaporative index than forested landscapes, with 9% more annual precipitation consumed by annual evapotranspiration compared to forests. In sum, the simple framework of supply‐ or demand‐limited evapotranspiration is supported by global FLUXNET observations but climate type and vegetation type are seen to exert sizeable additional controls.
Key Points
Global FLUXNET data support Budyko hypothesis of surface water balance controls
Climate type, vegetation type exert additional control on evapotranspiration
Grasslands exhibit higher evaporative index than forests
Climate change will cause a substantial future greenhouse gas release from warming and thawing permafrost-affected soils to the atmosphere enabling a positive feedback mechanism. Increasing the ...population density of big herbivores in northern high-latitude ecosystems will increase snow density and hence decrease the insulation strength of snow during winter. As a consequence, theoretically 80% of current permafrost-affected soils (<10 m) is projected to remain until 2100 even when assuming a strong warming using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Importantly, permafrost temperature is estimated to remain below -4 °C on average after increasing herbivore population density. Such ecosystem management practices would be therefore theoretically an important additional climate change mitigation strategy. Our results also highlight the importance of new field experiments and observations, and the integration of fauna dynamics into complex Earth System models, in order to reliably project future ecosystem functions and climate.
In eastern Siberia, topography controls the abundance of the larch forest via both drought and flooding stresses. For the reconstruction of these topographical effects, we modified a dynamic ...vegetation model to represent soil water relocation owing to within-grid heterogeneity of elevation, over-wet-kill of trees, and air temperature differences within-grid. After calibration, the model reasonably reconstructed the geographical distributions of observation-based-estimates of fundamental properties of plant productivity and thermo-hydrology. Thus, the model appropriately responded to environmental gradients in eastern Siberia. The modified model also partially reconstructed the topography control on tree abundance and thermo-hydrology status in eastern Siberia, although its geographical distribution was not always good. In the modified model, soil water redistribution increased the risk of over-wet-kill in lower elevation classes, whereas it reduced the risk of over-wet-kill for larch trees in higher elevation classes. We demonstrated that without considering the latter effect, forest collapse due to over-wet stress would happen throughout eastern Siberia under a forecasted climatic condition during the 21st century, which will deliver a much moister environment throughout eastern Siberia. Therefore, modeling the over-wet-kill of trees without considering topographical heterogeneity would result in the overestimation of forest collapse caused by the over-wet-kill of trees under an expected climate trend in eastern Siberia.
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