Agriculture and agri-food systems of the highly vulnerable Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region needs a radical transformation under a changing climate. Based on a two-year effort, initially we ...developed a mega hypothesis on how to achieve climate-smart agri-food transformation in the region. In the study, we hypothesized that “Climate-Smart Lifts” implemented in the enabling environments can rapidly facilitate agri-food transformation in the region. In order to gather the stakeholders’ perception about this, we organized a collective conversation among ~400 stakeholders that represent various scales and sectors within the agriculture sector in MENA. These “listening cum learning consultations” were conducted through a survey followed by a series of webinars. The webinar discussions were strategically guided based on our hypothesis, the responses from the surveys and the regional needs. These discussions provided a forum to bring-out the stakeholders’ perspective on what new knowledge, partnerships, instruments and projects were needed in the MENA. The deliberation focused on the opportunities of public–private partnerships focusing in all the four major agroecosystems in MENA (irrigated, rainfed, rangelands, and deserts). In result, we developed an effective framework for strategic resource mobilization in the region, keeping in view the strong regional needs for climate actions and the requisite long-term commitments for the SDGs implementation.
•We examine the implication of food policies on body weight outcomes.•An increase in tariff rate on “unhealthy” foods is associated with reduction in obesity rates.•An increase in subsidy rate is ...associated with higher obesity rates.•These implications of these food policies are more pronounced among poorer individuals.•We highlight heterogenous implications of trade and fiscal policies.
Understanding the public health implications of food policies is crucial to combat recently increasing overweight and obesity rates in many low-and-middle income countries (LMICs). This study examines the implication of food policies, mainly tariff rates on “unhealthy” foods (sugar and confectionery products as well as fats and oils) and governments’ subsidies, on individuals’ body weight outcomes. We compile several macro- and micro-level datasets that provide macro-level information on food policies and micro-level anthropometric data for several LMICs. We exploit temporal dynamics in tariff rates on “unhealthy” foods and governments’ spending on subsidies to estimate fixed effects models characterizing the evolution of body weight outcomes. We find that temporal dynamics in tariff rates on unhealthy and energy-dense foods are significantly and negatively associated with body weight. Conditional on several observable and time-invariant unobservable factors, a decrease in tariff rates on sugar and confectionary foods or fats and oils is associated with an increase in overweight and obesity rates. On the other hand, an increase in subsidy rate, as a share of government expenditure, is significantly associated with higher overweight and obesity rates. Interestingly, we find that the implications of these food policies are more pronounced among poorer individuals. This may be explained by the fact that poorer households usually spend a larger share of their income on food consumption or unhealthy foods; and that poorer individuals are often beneficiaries of government subsidies in many LMICs. These findings have important implications for informing public health policies in LMICs, which are experiencing an unprecedented rise in overweight and obesity rates.
Phasing out energy subsidies is high on the agenda of policymakers in several Middle Eastern and North African countries. The impact of such reform can vary widely depending on the country and ...policy. This paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the phasing out of energy subsidies in Egypt under alternative economic scenarios. In particular, we consider Egypt's short- and long-term economic adjustment under different assumptions on labor market flexibility, spending options of subsidy savings, and alternative social protection measures. Results from economy-wide model simulations suggest that energy subsidy cuts may hamper economic growth in the short term, but depending on the policy measure, will improve growth perspectives and household welfare in the longer term. Yet, findings also point to likely adverse impacts of the reform on household consumption in the short and longer run. To counteract such negative impacts, targeted social protection measures should be continued and scaled up in parallel with the phasing out of energy subsidies.
This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine war on global and regional food security. We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries. ...The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of its high food import dependence. Thus, we provide descriptive evidence characterizing how food systems and policies impact vulnerability to the price shock in selected MENA countries: Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Within these countries, we show that the crisis will differentially impact poor and non-poor households as well as rural and urban households. Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas where larger numbers of poor households are located, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and associated hikes in food prices, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing. We review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households in the short-term while also highlighting long-term policy options to diversify food, fertilizer and energy production and trade.
•This paper analyzes the implications of the Russian-Ukraine war on global and regional food security.•We start with a global vulnerability analysis to identify most vulnerable regions and countries.•The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to trade shocks because of the high food import dependence.•Although the absolute level of food insecurity may still be higher in rural areas, urban poor are likely to suffer most because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, especially in those countries where social protection and food subsidies are missing.•We review lessons from previous food crises and identify actions needed to take (and to avoid) to protect most vulnerable countries and households.
Abstract
Food is a vital part of poor households' budgets and so subsidizing staple foods would appear to be an obvious pro-poor policy. Indeed, most countries in North Africa have prioritized large ...national subsidy programs for staple foods and fuels as their main social safety net. However, these programs account for significant shares of government spending and often drive fiscal deficits, especially when import prices rise. In this paper we use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model to evaluate the trade-offs between reducing poverty and managing fiscal balances. The modeling framework allows us to measure the efficiency costs of subsidies compared to cash transfers - switching to the latter is an emerging regional trend. We analyze these issues through a detailed case study of Egypt, where efforts to replace food subsidies with cash transfers is already underway. Data is also available in Egypt to design scenarios that realistically reflect potential targeting effectiveness and administrative costs. We show that replacing broad food subsidies with targeted cash transfers of roughly equivalent fiscal costs can improve the welfare of the poorest households, but the continuation of fiscal deficits results in a deceleration of economic growth. The latter gradually reduces welfare gains for the poor and leads to substantial welfare losses for middle-income households who lose access to subsidies without benefitting from cash transfers. Our findings highlight the political challenges facing subsidy reform programs.
This paper presents an innovative approach for estimating changes in a country's food and nutrition security subject to economic growth and related income distribution over time. Specifically, we ...combine a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with household- and individual-level regression models and apply this macro–micro approach to assess the effects of Yemen's crisis-induced economic recession in 2011/12, together with two alternative transition scenarios from 2013 to 2020. Our results strongly suggest that not only more rapid, but also broader based economic growth will be needed for a quick return to pre-crisis food and nutrition security levels in Yemen. In addition to broader based growth that benefits the poor, targeted measures for improving nutrition such as integrated childcare programs and awareness campaigns related to family planning, female education, and qat consumption are needed.
•Adequate nutrition is increasingly recognized as key for economic development.•This paper estimates changes in nutrition indicators subject to economic growth.•We apply the innovative model to assess alternative transition scenarios for Yemen.•Economic growth is insufficient for reducing chronic child malnutrition.•More targeted nutrition interventions are urgently needed.
This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt’s power sector and identifies prospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon ...development issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt’s energy policy goals as reflected in Egypt’s Vision 2030, and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewable energy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions’ mitigation toward low-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation. The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly natural gas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversification changing with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase the effects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price, and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for power generation and develop a low-carbon society.
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