Starting from December 2019 the world has faced an unprecedented health crisis caused by the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) due to the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen. Within this topic, the aim of the paper was to ...quantify the effect of mobility habits in the spread of the Coronavirus in Italy through a multiple linear regression model. Estimation results showed that mobility habits represent one of the variables that explains the number of COVID-19 infections jointly with the number of tests/day and some environmental variables (i.e. PM pollution and temperature). Nevertheless, a proximity variable to the first outbreak was also significant, meaning that the areas close to the outbreak had a higher risk of contagion, especially in the initial stage of infection (time-decay phenomena). Furthermore, the number of daily new cases was related to the trips performed three weeks before. This threshold of 21 days could be considered as a sort of positivity detection time, meaning that the mobility restrictions quarantine commonly set at 14 days, defined only according to incubation-based epidemiological considerations, is underestimated (possible delays between contagion and detection) as a containment policy and may not always contribute to effectively slowing down the spread of virus worldwide. This result is original and, if confirmed in other studies, will lay the groundwork for more effective containment of COVID-19 in countries that are still in the health emergency, as well as for possible future returns of the virus.
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•We quantify the effect of mobility habits in the spread of the Coronavirus in Italy.•Daily COVID-19 cases are directly related to the mobility habits performed 21 days before.•Population density, PM pollutant and number of tests per day have a direct relationship with the infection.•Temperature has an inverse relationship with the spread of the virus.•The areas close to the outbreak had a higher risk of contagion (time-decay phenomena).
•HSR had impacts on socio-economic, territorial and transport systems in several countries.•The paper analyses the impacts induced by HSR services in Italy after ten years of operation.•Italy ...represents the first case of competitive HSR market without public subsidies.•Competition between HSR operators brought a significant decrease in ticket prices (-40%)•HSR passengers/year passed from 15 to 45 millions (+200%) in 10 years.•HSR contributed, in 10 years, to an increase of the rail-based transport accessibility up to + 30%•HSR contributed to an extra growth of per capita GDP of + 2.6–5.6% in 10 years.•Regional equity in terms of travel time accessibility decreased by 11% in 10 years.•Extension of the HSR network would increase accessibility (+18%), economic growth (+3.6%) and equity (+49%)
The deployment of HSR services in the recent decades has been, arguably, the most significant innovation for intercity travel around the globe. HSR has brought impacts which have been widely studied in different countries in relation to the different socioeconomic, territorial and transport characteristics.
This paper analyses the economic growth, the transport accessibility and the social impacts observed in Italy after ten years of HSR operation, as well as the estimated impacts of the system completion. The Italian case study is of particular interest since along the 1,467 km of new high speed line (300 km/h), a combination of major cities distances and a unique HSR competitive market, producing prices reductions and more daily trains, brought a 200% increase of HSR demand (from 15 to 45 millions of passengers/year). Estimations results show that, on average, HSR in Italy contributed to a significant increase in transport accessibility (+32%) for the zones along the HSR network, while only marginal for the others (+6%). Impacts on the economic growth show that HSR has contributed to an extra growth of per capita GDP of + 2.6% in 10 years and would have contributed to a further increase of 3.6% if the final project scenario (HSR_N) would had been completed by 2018. Regional (horizontal) equity impacts were evaluated in terms of the Gini indexes variations with respect to the distribution of the transport accessibility. It results that HSR in Italy has decreased equity in terms of users’ travel time accessibility of 11%, increasing the differences between the zones served by HSR and those not. If the HSR_N scenario would have been completed equity indices would have increased of 29% with respect to the pre-HSR 2008 scenario, thus reducing regional inequalities in the country.
Results show that the HSR project was a country-level “game changer” in Italy, suggesting that the wider economic benefits, the assumptions on market regulation, the effects on regional disparities and the compensatory measures should be included in the ex ante and ex post evaluation of similar projects.
The massive diffusion of autonomous vehicles will allow making transportation systems safer, efficient and less pollutant. Nevertheless, there are still some obstacles in the adoption of driverless ...vehicles of a technological, normative, ethical and social nature. Many surveys observed a priori reluctance towards autonomous vehicles, due to their implications for personal safety. This reluctance could mean a sort of lack of trust (unwillingness to use/pay) that several authors have observed, but only few have measured. Although the main interest of manufacturers/policy-makers is the diffusion of autonomous vehicles in the private car market, it is probably in the public transport sector that this technology will be used first. The aim of the research was to propose an estimation of the value of this reluctance to change (acceptability) towards shared autonomous services. A discrete choice experiment was performed in Naples (Italy) among bus/taxi users. A Mixed Logit model with random coefficients and panel data was estimated. The results show that the average transport user has an a priori reluctance to use fully-automated bus/taxi of −2.31 Euro/trip. Category-specific estimates were also performed resulting that male 18–40 year-old (>40 year-old) have a reluctance in using driverless transit services 53% (36%) lower than females. Of interest are the results relative to those who commonly use on-board automation features, for which a positive willingness to pay for driverless vehicles was estimated (+1.21 Euro/trip). Obtained results strongly suggest that the main barrier preventing mass adoption of autonomous vehicles may also be psychological besides technological.
•Acceptability problem towards autonomous vehicles due to implications for personal safety•The current value of acceptability in using shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) was estimated•The unwillingness to pay to use shared autonomous vehicles was quantified in in €-2.31/trip•Male young users have 53% less reluctance in choosing driverless transit services than female•Frequent users of automation features have a positive willingness to pay for driverless vehicles
The Covid-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented global crisis and led to a huge number of deaths, economic hardship and the disruption of everyday life. Measures to restrict accessibility adopted ...by many countries were a swift yet effective response to contain the spread of the virus. Within this topic, this paper aims to support policies and decision makers in defining the most appropriate strategies to manage the Covid-19 crisis. Precisely the correlation between positive Covid-19 cases and transport accessibility of an area was investigated through a multiple linear regression model. Estimation results show that transport accessibility was the variable that better explained the number of Covid-19 infections (about 40% in weight), meaning that the greater is the accessibility of a certain geographical area, the easier the virus reaches its population. Furthermore, other context variables were also significant, i.e. socio-economic, territorial and pollutant variables. Estimated findings show that accessibility, which is often used to measure the wealth of an area, becomes its worst enemy during a pandemic, providing to be the main vehicle of contagion among its citizens. These original results allow the definition of possible policies and/or best practices to better manage mobility restrictions. The quantitative estimates performed show that a possible and probably more sustainable policy for containing social interactions could be to apply lockdowns in proportion to the transport accessibility of the areas concerned, in the sense that the higher the accessibility, the tighter should be the mobility restriction policies adopted.
•HSR as a successful “brand”, including not only faster trains, but also on-board services.•A quantitative analysis of the impacts of the hedonic value of an HSR service is proposed.•City-specific ...and level of services attributes influence the perception of tourist destination.•The “pure preference” for the HSR brand was quantified in 23 Euros/trip.•The willingness to pay for an HSR ticket is up to 40% greater than that for a traditional one.•The pure preference for HSR services increases for distances traveled greater than 400km.
High-Speed Rail (HSR) is a transport mode that operates significantly faster than traditional services, using integrated and specialized rolling stock, and often dedicated tracks. These rapid transit services have profoundly impacted mobility habits on medium-long range journeys, and have also brought about social, economic, and environmental changes in the geographical areas involved. HSR has become a successful “brand”, including not only faster trains, but also a number of other on-board services that increase rail attractiveness (e.g. restaurants, wi-fi connection, free newspapers, cinema, business areas and relaxation lounges).
Starting from these considerations, in this research we investigated the conjecture according to which a traveler, in choosing an HSR service to reach a destination (against a traditional rail service, or other competing transport modes), is not only influenced by its original peculiarity as a “faster train” service, but also takes into account the presence of all the “hedonic” characteristics of the service. That said, the literature in transportation modeling has yet to analyze the impact of hedonic quality on travelers’ behavior by quantifying whether and to what extent it increases their propensity to use HSR services.
Aim of this research was twofold: i) to quantify, for the first time in the literature, the hedonic value of an HSR service related to a domestic tourist trip, as compared to more conventional levels of service and attractiveness attributes; ii) investigate the domestic tourist attractiveness of the main Italian cities, evaluating which attributes influence the perception of a city as a domestic tourist destination. The application case study consists in the supply of current rail services (HSR vs. traditional) between the 11 main Italian cities in terms of tourist destination. On the basis of an RP&SP survey, carried out among university students at national scale, a binomial logit model was specified with serial correlation in residuals, estimating whether or not the cities in the panel were perceived as possible destinations for a domestic tourist trips made by train.
The estimation results show that city-specific attractiveness attributes (entertainment and restaurant rate; number of sites of interests; crime rate), and level of services variables (e.g. travel time and cost; HSR brand ) significantly influence the perception of a city as a possible destination for a domestic tourist trip by train. Furthermore, the average monetary value for the “pure preference” for the HSR brand (faster trains, high frequency, and on-board services) is about 22Euros/trip, while the hedonic value relative only to on-board services is about 12Euros/trip , underlining that the “faster train” is only one of the perceived attributes of HSR services. Overall, the willingness to pay for an HSR ticket is up to 40% greater than that for a traditional one. Furthermore, tourists are willing to spend 2.2h more travelling on an HSR train to reach their destinations. The estimation results show that there is also a “distance traveled effect”; the pure preference for HSR services increases in value from 9Euros/trip to 13Euros/trip (+44%) for distances traveled greater than 400km. If confirmed, these results allow the conclusion to be drawn that the “catchment area” of cities on HSR networks is larger than that served by traditional rail.
All around the world, many studies and experimental results have assessed elevated concentrations of Particulate Matter (PM) in underground metro systems, with non-negligible implications for human ...health due to protracted exposure to fine particles. Starting from this consideration, an intensive particulate sampling campaign was carried out in January 2014 measuring the PM concentrations in the Naples (Italy) Metro Line 1, both at station platforms and inside trains. Naples Metro Line 1 is about 18 km long, with 17 stations (3 ground-level and 14 below-ground ones). Experimental results show that the average PM10 concentrations measured in the underground station platforms range between 172 and 262μg/m3 whilst the average PM2.5 concentrations range between 45 and 60μg/m3. By contrast, in ground-level stations no significant difference between stations platforms and urban environment measurements was observed. Furthermore, a direct correlation between trains passage and PM concentrations was observed, with an increase up to 42% above the average value. This correlation is possibly caused by the re-suspension of the particles due to the turbulence induced by trains. The main original finding was the real-time estimations of PM levels inside the trains travelling both in ground-level and underground sections of Line 1. The results show that high concentrations of both PM10 (average values between 58μg/m3 and 138μg/m3) and PM2.5 (average values between 18μg/m3 and 36μg/m3) were also measured inside trains. Furthermore, measurements show that windows left open on trains caused the increase in PM concentrations inside trains in the underground section, while in the ground-level section the clean air entering the trains produced an environmental “washing effect”. Finally, it was estimated that every passenger spends on average about 70 min per day exposed to high levels of PM.
•Investigates the particulate matter (PM) concentrations both at station platforms and inside trains.•PM concentrations at station platforms are 2–14 times higher than outdoors.•In ground-level sections there is an environmental “washing-effect” when windows in carriages are left open.•Higher concentrations of PM at station platforms are directly correlated to passage of trains.
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•Qualitative aspects of rail service have not been much investigated in the literature.•A quantitative analysis of the impacts of stations’ quality on users is proposed.•The catchment ...area of high quality stations is larger than that of a traditional one.•The “value of stations quality” was quantified in 35–50 Euro cents/trip.•Aesthetics and other quality attributes should be considered in design/assessment.
Transit services quality has long been recognized as an important factor in influencing travelers behaviour and terminals quality is certainly part of it. As a matter of fact a number of transit promotion policies explicitly based on qualitative factors and specifically high architectural standards are being adopted in designing new railways stations and several examples of remarkable architecture applied to railways stations can be found all round the world. In spite of this, the literature in transportation modelling has not yet analyzed the impact of the hedonic quality on travelers’ behaviour quantifying whether and by how much it increases their propensity to use rail services.
A binomial logit model, simulating the choice between a traditional rail line and a new line open in 2009 in the northern area of Naples – Italy (high architectural and aesthetic standards railways) was specified and estimated for trips having both routing options between the same origin–destination pair. The model was specified with serial correlation in residuals and estimated using RP–SP data for different users’ segments. The main difference between the two alternatives in the real scenario was the stations architectural quality as all other attributes, including travel time, frequency, access and egress times, trains and riding comfort, security, were basically the same. In Stated Preference experiments several scenarios were presented to users with four levels of level of service attributes and factorial fractional design.
The results show a significant impact of stations architectural quality on users’ choices and allow to estimate reciprocal substitution coefficients with respect to other level of service attributes. The average monetary “value of stations quality” was quantified in 35 Euro cents/trip for students and in 50 Euro cents/trip for commuters (+43%). Alternative-specific waiting time coefficients showed a context effect for both students and commuters (respectively 31% and 35% lower values for traditional stations) but they did not explain entirely the preference for high architectural railways line. It also resulted that female travelers showed a significant preference for stations quality (+33% with respect to male). Other results related to access and egress time suggest that, if everything else being equal, the high architectural line have a larger “catchment area” with respect to a traditional rail of approximately 400 meters by walking.
The results of this research should be compared with those from other contexts as they have a potential impact for railways planning showing that architectural quality of stations should be considered as an explicit design variable and could be compared with other, possibly more expensive, improvements (e.g. frequency increases, accessibility improvements) and poses new challenges for modelling user behaviour and quality-related measures.
The transport sector is often the center of political and scientific debate on sustainability due to negative externalities produced by the daily movement of goods and people which impact both on the ...environment and on quality of life. Great interest has therefore focused on impact estimation of transport infrastructures/services with respect to social, economic, and environmental sustainability. Among the consolidated assessment methods, the cost–benefit analysis (CBA) is one of the quantitative tools representing the final stage (decision) in decision-making processes, which compares design alternatives and verifies the sustainability of a transport project. Recently the Italian Government proposed the national “Guidelines for Assessment of Investment Projects” based on CBA. The aim of this research is twofold: a) from a research point of view, to propose a sustainable evaluating method for impact assessment of the new transportation infrastructure aimed in performing both rational and shared decisions with the territories; b) for a practical point of view, to propose a first application of the CBA Italian guideline useful for the professional practice in the field of public investment evaluation. A quantitative impacts assessment of social, economic and environmental sustainability was performed for a revamping project of a new “greenway” in the south of Italy. Furthermore, also the social equity impacts produced by the new road infrastructure was also quantified, estimating the GINI indexes variation as a measure of effectiveness.
The scope of this paper is to quantify the environmental impact due to the gaseous emissions in the ports of Naples and Salerno (south Italy), keeping into account all the main sources of pollution ...in ports: ships, traffic, services, public buildings, lighting, etc. A “bottom-up” methodology has been applied to the maritime sector and a collection of data on energy consumption was gathered to evaluate the environmental impact due to other activities. As a result, a careful assessment of the impact of such ports as regards Green House Gases (GHG) and non-GHG pollutants has been obtained.
Transportation systems are complex sociotechnical systems and this dual nature is reflected in the literature dealing with their planning, i.e. defining courses of action from both public and private ...points of view. On the one hand, the social sciences literature makes it clear that most decisions related to transportation are “wicked”, i.e. they cannot be tackled with traditional engineering approaches since they are poorly defined. On the other, transportation systems have a strong technical component affecting most of such decisions, as they have to (or should) comply with compelling technical and economic requirements. The literature on transport engineering and economics deals with transportation planning mostly as a rational process based on the formulation and comparison of alternative options.
In this paper, we propose an approach to planning and designing transportation systems, at least in the more complex cases, meant to bridge the gap between social and technical points of view. The proposed approach is cross-disciplinary, as it integrates notions from cognitive sciences, organization and management sciences with transportation systems analysis. Transportation planning, both under public and private market-oriented viewpoints, is seen as a complex decision-making process where different actors (decision-makers, stakeholders, professionals) interact in different contexts and according to different “models” or approaches.
After a brief discussion of the main elements of most planning processes and of the different decision making models, the paper proposes a decision-making model based on three parallel and intertwined processes: a cognitive rational approach to organizing the decision-making process, a five-level stakeholder engagement process, and a revised role of quantitative analyses and methods drawing on tools from engineering and economics, amongst other disciplines.
We also present a real application of the proposed decision-making model to the case study of the Regional Metro System (RMS) project in Campania (southern Italy), where a complex decisional context with different stakeholders and multiple (often contrasting) interests was managed in the integrated framework for over a decade, resulting in the largest and most effective of such projects in Italy.
Finally, the paper proposes new roles and new challenges for quantitative analyses and mathematical tools to support participated decision-making processes, extending their well-established functions for designing and assessing transportation solutions.
•Failures in transport-related decision making can be observed in several areas.•The quality of the decision-making process is a key factor for successful planning.•A novel decision-making model to tackle “wicked” problems in transportation planning.•The application of the Regional Metro System project in Campania (Italy) is presented.•New roles of quantitative methods and technical analyses are discussed.
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