Abstract
It is well known that the chances of success of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence depend on the longevity of technological civilizations or, more broadly, on the duration of the ...signs of their existence, or technosignatures. Here, we re-examine this general tenet in more detail, and we show that its broader implications have not been given their proper significance. In particular, an often overlooked aspect is that the duration of a technosignature is in principle almost entirely separable from the age of the civilization that produces it. We propose a classification scheme of technosignatures based on their duration, and we use Monte Carlo simulations to show that, given an initial generic distribution of Galactic technosignatures, only the ones with the longest duration are likely to be detected. This tells us, among other things, that looking for a large number of short-lived technosignatures is a weaker observational strategy than focusing the search on a few long-lived ones. It also suggests abandoning any anthropocentric bias in approaching the question of extraterrestrial intelligence. We finally give some ideas of possible pathways that can lead to the establishment of long-lived technosignatures.
Abstract
Psychotherapy is an effective treatment for many common mental health problems, but the mechanisms of action and processes of change are unclear, perhaps driven by the focus on a single ...diagnosis which does not reflect the heterogeneous symptom experiences of many patients. The objective of this study was to better understand therapeutic change, by illustrating how symptoms evolve and interact during psychotherapy. Data from 113,608 patients from psychological therapy services who completed depression and anxiety symptom measures across three to six therapy sessions were analysed. A panel graphical vector-autoregression model was estimated in a model development sample (N = 68,165) and generalizability was tested in a confirmatory model, fitted to a separate (hold-out) sample of patients (N = 45,443). The model displayed an excellent fit and replicated in the confirmatory holdout sample. First, we found that nearly all symptoms were statistically related to each other (i.e. dense connectivity), indicating that no one symptom or association drives change. Second, the structure of symptom interrelations which emerged did not change across sessions. These findings provide a dynamic view of the process of symptom change during psychotherapy and give rise to several causal hypotheses relating to structure, mechanism, and process.
•We consider the long-term future evolutionary pathways of technologically advanced civilizations, beyond currently discussed postbiological stage.•It is argued that sufficiently advanced technology ...is indistinguishable from its natural, in particular astrophysical/astrobiological, environment.•Some examples originating in the pop-cultural context are analysed as possible instances of post-postbiological evolution.•Setting the scene for the project of studying post-postbiology, unifying futures studies, evolutionary theory, astrobiology and philosophy.
It has already become a commonplace to discuss postbiological evolution in various contexts of futures studies, bioethics, cognitive sciences, philosophical anthropology, or even economics and SETI studies. The assumption is that technological/cultural evolution will soon entirely substitute for the biological processes which underlie human existence – and, by analogy, the existence of other independently evolved intelligent beings, if any. Various modes of postbiological evolution of humans have been envisioned in both fictional and discursive contexts (uploading, cyborgization, technological singularity, etc.). Little thought has been devoted so far to the question whether these postbiological modes are truly final in both logical and conceptual terms. What lies beyond the postbiological realm? Clearly, only a few radical speculations on the topic can be offered. In this paper, it is argued that in a sufficiently broad subset of scenarios for postbiological evolution there will be a kind of reverse trend: the one of reintegration with the (astro)biological universe, by that point understood in a much wider and more inclusive sense. The argument for such reintegration could be understood through the metaphor of expanding Klein bottle as a symbolic image of the post-postbiological evolutionary trajectories. This kind of trajectory will lead to the state in which products of culture are indistinguishable from the natural environment, suggesting practical consequences for our SETI efforts.
Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection is a significant factor in the pathogenesis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma, especially in the undifferentiated carcinoma of nasopharyngeal type (UCNT, World Health ...Organization type III), which is the dominant histopathological type in high-risk areas. The major EBV oncogene is latent membrane protein 1 (LMP1). LMP1 gene shows variability with different tumorigenic and immunogenic potentials. EBV nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA1) regulates progression of EBV-related tumors; however, the influence of EBNA1 sequence variability on tumor pathogenesis is controversial. The aims of this study were to characterize polymorphisms of EBV genes in non-endemic nasopharyngeal carcinoma biopsies and to investigate potential sequence patterns that correlate with the clinical presentation of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. In total, 116 tumor biopsies of undifferentiated carcinoma of nasopharyngeal type (UCNT), collected from 2008 to 2014, were evaluated in this study. The genes EBNA2, LMP1, and EBNA1 were amplified using nested-PCR. EBNA2 genotyping was performed by visualization of PCR products using gel electrophoresis. Investigation of LMP1 and EBNA1 included sequence, phylogenetic, and statistical analyses. The presence of EBV DNA was significantly distributed between TNM stages. LMP1 variability showed six variants, with the detection of the first China1 and North Carolina variants in European nasopharyngeal carcinoma biopsies. Newly discovered variants Srb1 and Srb2 were UCNT-specific LMP1 polymorphisms. The B95-8 and North Carolina variants are possible predictors for favorable TNM stages. In contrast, deletions in LMP1 are possible risk factors for the most disfavorable TNM stage, independent of EBNA2 or EBNA1 variability. A newly discovered EBNA1 subvariant, P-thr-sv-5, could be a potential diagnostic marker, as it represented a UCNT-specific EBNA1 subvariant. A particular combination of EBNA2, LMP1, and EBNA1 polymorphisms, type 1/Med/P-thr was identified as a possible risk factor for TNM stage IVB or progression to the N3 stage.
Education is undergoing profound changes due to permanent technological innovations. This paper reports the results of a pilot study aimed at developing, implementing and evaluating the course, ..."Applicative Use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in Medicine," upon medical school entry. The Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, introduced a curriculum reform in 2014 that included the implementation of the course, "Applicative Use of ICT in Medicine" for first year medical students. The course was designed using a blended learning format to introduce the concepts of Web-based learning environments. Data regarding student knowledge, use and attitudes towards ICT were prospectively collected for the classes of 2015/16 and 2016/17. The teaching approach was supported by multimedia didactic materials using Moodle LMS. The overall quality of the course was also assessed. The five level Likert scale was used to measure attitudes related to ICT. In total, 1110 students were assessed upon medical school entry. A small number of students (19%) had previous experience with e-learning. Students were largely in agreement that informatics is needed in medical education, and that it is also useful for doctors (4.1±1.0 and 4.1±0.9, respectively). Ability in informatics and use of the Internet in education in the adjusted multivariate regression model were significantly associated with positive student attitudes toward ICT. More than 80% of students stated that they had learned to evaluate medical information and would use the Internet to search medical literature as an additional source for education. The majority of students (77%) agreed that a blended learning approach facilitates access to learning materials and enables time independent learning (72%). Implementing the blended learning course, "Applicative Use of ICT in Medicine," may bridge the gap between medicine and informatics upon medical school entry. Students displayed positive attitudes towards using ICT and gained adequate skills necessary to function effectively in an information-rich environment.
ABSTRACT
Observational data suggest that a belt of planetesimals is expected close to the snow line in protoplanetary discs. Assuming there is such a belt in the TRAPPIST-1 system, we examine ...possibilities of water delivery to the planets via planetesimals from the belt. The study is accomplished by numerical simulations of dynamical evolution of a hypothetical planetesimal belt. Our results show that the inner part of the belt is dynamically unstable and planetesimals located in this region are quickly scattered away, with many of them entering the region around the planets. The main dynamical mechanism responsible for the instability are close encounters with the outermost planet Trappist-1h. A low-order mean-motion resonance 2:3 with Trappist-1h, located in the same region, also contributes to the objects transport. In our nominal model, the planets have received a non-negligible amount of water, with the smallest amount of 15 per cent of the current Earth’s water amount (EWA) being delivered to the planet 1b, while the planets Trappist-1e and Trappist-1g have received more than 60 per cent of the EWA. We have found that while the estimated efficiency of water transport to the planets is robust, the amount of water delivered to each planet may vary significantly, depending on the initial masses and orbits of the planets. The estimated dynamical ‘half-lives’ have shown that the impactors’ source region should be emptied in less then 1 Myr. Therefore, the obtained results suggest that the transport of planetesimals through the system preferably occurs during an early phase of the planetary system evolution.
Now that we know that Earth-like planets are ubiquitous in the universe, as well as that most of them are much older than the Earth, it is justified to ask to what extent evolutionary outcomes on ...other such planets are similar, or indeed commensurable, to the outcomes we perceive around us. In order to assess the degree of specialty or mediocrity of our trajectory of biospheric evolution, we need to take into account recent advances in theoretical astrobiology, in particular (i) establishing the history of habitable planets’ formation in the Galaxy, and (ii) understanding the crucial importance of “Gaian” feedback loops and temporal windows for the interaction of early life with its physical environment. Hereby we consider an alternative macroevolutionary pathway that may result in tight functional integration of all sub-planetary ecosystems, eventually giving rise to a true superorganism at the biospheric level. The blueprint for a possible outcome of this scenario has been masterfully provided by the great Polish novelist Stanisław Lem in his 1961 novel
Solaris
. In fact,
Solaris
offers such a persuasive and powerful case for an “extremely strong” Gaia hypothesis that it is, arguably, high time to investigate it in a discursive astrobiological and philosophical context. In addition to novel predictions in the domain of potentially detectable biosignatures, some additional cognitive and heuristic benefits of studying such extreme cases of functional integration are briefly discussed.
Symmetry-based explanations using symmetry breaking (SB) as the key explanatory tool have complemented and replaced traditional causal explanations in various domains of physics. The process of ...spontaneous SB is now a mainstay of contemporary explanatory accounts of large chunks of condensed-matter physics, quantum field theory, nonlinear dynamics, cosmology, and other disciplines. A wide range of empirical research into various phenomena related to symmetries and SB across biological scales has accumulated as well. Led by these results, we identify and explain some common features of the emergence, propagation, and cascading of SB-induced layers across the biosphere. These features are predicated on the thermodynamic openness and intrinsic functional incompleteness of the systems at stake and have not been systematically analyzed from a general philosophical and methodological perspective. We also consider possible continuity of SB across the physical and biological world and discuss the connection between Darwinism and SB-based analysis of the biosphere and its history.
There are manifold intriguing issues located within largely unexplored borderlands of bioethics, future studies (including global risk analysis), and astrobiology. Human enhancement has for quite ...some time been among the foci of bioethical debates, but the same cannot be said about its global, transgenerational, and even cosmological consequences. In recent years, discussions of posthuman and, in general terms, postbiological civilization(s) have slowly gained a measure of academic respect, in parallel with the renewed interest in the entire field of future studies and the great strides made in understanding of the origin and evolution of life and intelligence in their widest, cosmic context. These developments promise much deeper synergic answers to questions regarding the long-term future of enhancement: how far can it go? Is human enhancement a further step toward building a true postbiological civilization? Should we actively participate and help shape this process? Is the future of humanity "typical" in the same Copernican sense as our location in space and time is typical in the galaxy, and if so, can we derive important insights about the evolutionary pathways of postbiological evolution from astrobiological and Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI) studies? These and similar questions could be understood as parts of a possible unifying research program attempting to connect cultural and moral evolution with what we know and understand about their cosmological and biological counterparts.
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