Abstract
The Mediterranean storm “Vaia” developed within a typical autumn synoptic circulation, generally associated with heavy rain conditions over the western Mediterranean Sea basin. Intense ...precipitation was responsible for floods over Italy between 27 and 30 October 2018, and the storm was accompanied by explosive cyclogenesis, storm surge, and extremely intense wind gusts that caused casualties and extensive damage, especially to the Alpine forests. This study investigates the contribution of different moisture sources to the extreme precipitation by means of numerical model simulations using the Bologna Limited Area Model (BOLAM). In particular, the attention is focused on the significant amount of water vapor transported into the Mediterranean basin from the Atlantic Ocean tropical area and organized along a narrow corridor across the African continent. First, a newly developed detection algorithm is applied to identify this transport as an atmospheric river (AR). Then, the implementation of an atmospheric water budget diagnostic, supported by sensitivity experiments, allows us to assess the role of the AR in terms of water supply to the precipitation systems. Although the transport of moisture from remote regions is known to be an important ingredient for the onset of heavy precipitation in the Mediterranean, the role of ARs, already identified in correspondence with some of these events, has not been deeply investigated and quantified yet in this specific area. The results demonstrate that the AR was critical for determining the magnitude of this heavy precipitation episode over Italy, whereas evaporation from the sea played a secondary role, especially for precipitation over the Alps.
A recently launched project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) is presented. ...This initiative aims to build first-of-its-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. In this manuscript the rationale, scientific aims and approaches are presented along with some preliminary results from the testing phase of the project. Three test cases were selected in order to obtain a first look at the ensemble performance. The test cases covered a summertime extreme precipitation event over Austria, a fall Foehn event over the Swiss Alps and an intensively documented fall event along the Mediterranean coast. The test cases were run in both “weather-like” (WL, initialized just before the event in question) and “climate” (CM, initialized 1 month before the event) modes. Ensembles of 18–21 members, representing six different modeling systems with different physics and modelling chain options, was generated for the test cases (27 modeling teams have committed to perform the longer climate simulations). Results indicate that, when run in WL mode, the ensemble captures all three events quite well with ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.67, 0.82 and 0.91. They suggest that the more the event is driven by large-scale conditions, the closer the agreement between the ensemble members. Even in climate mode the large-scale driven events over the Swiss Alps and the Mediterranean coasts are still captured (ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.90 and 0.62, respectively), but the inter-model spread increases as expected. In the case over Mediterranean the effects of local-scale interactions between flow and orography and land–ocean contrasts are readily apparent. However, there is a much larger, though not surprising, increase in the spread for the Austrian event, which was weakly forced by the large-scale flow. Though the ensemble correlation skill score is still quite high (0.80). The preliminary results illustrate both the promise and the challenges that convection permitting modeling faces and make a strong argument for an ensemble-based approach to investigating high impact convective processes.
During the first HyMeX Special Observation Period (SOP1) field campaign, the target site of north‐eastern Italy (NEI) experienced a large amount of precipitation, locally exceeding the climatological ...values and distributed among several heavy‐rainfall episodes. In particular, two events that occurred during the last period of the campaign drew our attention. These events had common large‐scale patterns and a similar mesoscale setting, characterised by southerly low‐level flow interacting with the Alpine orography, but the precipitation distribution was very different. During Intensive Observing Period IOP18 (31 October–1 November 2012), convective systems were responsible for intense rainfall mainly located over a flat area of the eastern Po Valley, well upstream of the orography. Conversely, during IOP19 (4/5 November 2012), heavy precipitation affected only the Alpine area. In addition to IOP18 and IOP19, the present study analyses other heavy‐precipitation episodes that display similar characteristics and which occurred over NEI during the autumn of recent years. A high‐resolution (2 km grid spacing) non‐hydrostatic NWP model and available observations are used for this purpose.
The two different observed precipitation patterns are explained in terms of interaction between the impinging flow and the Alps. Depending on the thermodynamic profile, convection can be triggered when the impinging flow is forced to rise over a pre‐existing cold‐air layer at the base of the orography. In this situation a persistent blocked‐flow condition and upstream convergence are responsible for heavy rain localized over the plain. Conversely, if convection does not develop, flow‐over conditions are established and heavy rain affects the Alps. Numerical parameters proposed in the literature are used to support the analysis.
Finally, the role of evaporative cooling beneath the convective systems is evaluated. It turns out that the stationarity of the systems upstream of the Alps is mainly attributable to persistent blocked‐flow conditions, while convective outflow slightly modifies the location of precipitation.
During Intensive Observation Period 13 (15 to 16 October 2012) of the first Special Observing Period of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX), Southern Italy (SI) was ...affected by two consecutive heavy precipitation events (HPEs). Both HPEs were associated with multi‐cell V‐shaped retrograde regeneration mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). The life cycle of two MCSs in connection with their dynamic and thermodynamic environments were analysed using a combination of ground‐based, airborne and spaceborne observations and numerical simulations. Rain gauges revealed that heavy precipitation occurred in two phases: the first one from 1300 to 1700 UTC (35 mm h−1) was caused by a V‐shaped system initiating over the Tyrrhenian Sea in the early morning of 15 October. Convection was triggered by the low‐level convergence between the southwesterlies ahead of an upper‐level trough positioned over southeastern France and very moist southerlies from the Strait of Sicily. The convection was favoured by high convective available potential energy (1500 J kg−1) resulting from warm and moist conditions at low levels associated with high sea surface temperatures in the Strait of Sicily. In addition, humidity at mid‐level was enriched by the presence of an elevated moisture plume from tropical Africa, favouring the efficiency of the convection to produce more precipitation. The second phase of heavy precipitation (2300 UTC on 15 October to 0200 UTC on 16 October, 34 mm h−1) was caused by a MCS initiating over Algeria around 1300 UTC, which subsequently travelled over the Strait of Sicily toward Sicily and SI. Convection was maintained by the combination of large low‐level moisture contents and a marked convergence ahead of the cold front. Unlike other MCSs forming in the same region earlier on that day, this huge V‐shaped system did affect SI because the strong upper‐level flow progressively backed from southwesterly to south southwesterly.
The evolution of coastal and transitional environments depends upon the interplay of human activities and natural drivers, two factors that are strongly connected and many times conflicting. The urge ...for efficient tools for characterising and predicting the behaviour of such systems is nowadays particularly pressing, especially under the effects of a changing climate, and requires a deeper understanding of the connections among different drivers and different scales. To this aim, the present paper reviews the results of a set of interdisciplinary and coordinated experiences carried out in the Adriatic Sea (north-eastern Mediterranean region), discussing state-of-the art methods for coastal dynamics assessment and monitoring, and suggests strategies towards a more efficient coastal management. Coupled with detailed geomorphological information, the methodologies currently available for evaluating the different components of relative sea level rise facilitate a first identification of the flooding hazard in coastal areas, providing a fundamental element for the prioritization and identification of the sustainability of possible interventions and policies. In addition, hydro- and morpho-dynamic models are achieving significant advances in terms of spatial resolution and physical insight, also in a climatological context, improving the description of the interactions between meteooceanographic processes at the regional scale to coastal dynamics at the local scale. We point out that a coordinated use of the described tools should be promptly promoted in the design of survey and monitoring activities as well as in the exploitation of already collected data. Moreover, expected benefits from this strategy include the production of services and infrastructures for coastal protection with a focus on short-term forecast and rapid response, enabling the implementation of an event-oriented sampling strategy.
High Impact Weather (HIW), particularly Heavy Precipitation Events (HPE), are common phenomena affecting the western Mediterranean (WMED) especially in the autumn period. Understanding and evaluating ...the capability to adequately represent such events in model simulations is one of the main goals of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) and the main motivation of this investigation.
In order to gain a better knowledge of the model representation of HPE and related processes we perform a seamless multi‐model intercomparison at the event scale. Limited‐area model runs (grid spacing from 2 to 20 km) at weather and climate time‐scales are considered, four with parametrized and five with explicit convection. The performance of the nine models is compared by analysing precipitation, as well as convection‐relevant parameters. An Intensive Observation Period (IOP12) from the HyMeX‐SOP1 (Special Observation Period) is used to illustrate the results. During IOP12, HPE affected the northwestern Mediterranean region, from Spain to Italy, as a consequence of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) which initiated and intensified in the area of investigation.
Results show that: (i) the timing of the maximum precipitation seems to be linked to the representation of large‐scale conditions rather than differences among models; (ii) Convection Permitting Models (CPMs) exhibit differences among each other, but better represent the short‐intense convective events. All four convection‐parametrized models produce a large number of weak and long‐lasting events. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) capture the occurrence of the event but produce notably lower precipitation amounts and hourly intensities than CPMs and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models with parametrized convection; (iii) these differences do not seem to come from mean moisture or Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) which are in the same range for all models, but rather from differences in the variability and vertical distribution of moisture and the triggering of deep convection.
Over the northern Adriatic basin, intense air-sea interactions are often associated with heavy precipitation over the mountainous areas surrounding the basin. In this study, a high-resolution ...mesoscale model is employed to simulate three severe weather events and to evaluate the effect of the sea surface temperature on the intensity and location of heavy rainfall. The sensitivity tests show that the impact of SST varies among the events and it mainly involves the modification of the PBL characteristics and thus the flow dynamics and its interaction with the orography.
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