Changing vegetation cover alters the radiative and non-radiative properties of the surface. The result of competing biophysical processes on Earth's surface energy balance varies spatially and ...seasonally, and can lead to warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation change and background climate. Here we provide the first data-driven assessment of the potential effect on the full surface energy balance of multiple vegetation transitions at global scale. For this purpose we developed a novel methodology that is optimized to disentangle the effect of mixed vegetation cover on the surface climate. We show that perturbations in the surface energy balance generated by vegetation change from 2000 to 2015 have led to an average increase of 0.23 ± 0.03 °C in local surface temperature where those vegetation changes occurred. Vegetation transitions behind this warming effect mainly relate to agricultural expansion in the tropics, where surface brightening and consequent reduction of net radiation does not counter-balance the increase in temperature associated with reduction in transpiration. This assessment will help the evaluation of land-based climate change mitigation plans.
Satellite remote sensing is an invaluable tool to monitor agricultural resources. However, spatial patterns in agricultural landscapes vary significantly across the Earth resulting in different ...imagery requirements depending on what part of the globe is observed. Furthermore, there is an increasing diversity of Earth observation instruments providing imagery with various configurations of spatial, temporal, spectral and angular resolutions. In terms of spatial resolution, the choice of imagery should be conditioned by knowing the appropriate spatial frequency at which the landscape must be sampled with the imaging instrument in order to provide the required information from the targeted fields. This paper presents a conceptual framework to define quantitatively such requirements for both crop area estimation and crop growth monitoring based on user-defined constraints. The methodological development is based on simulating how agricultural landscapes, and more specifically the fields covered by a crop of interest, are seen by instruments with increasingly coarser resolving power. The results are provided not only in terms of acceptable pixel size but also of pixel purity which is the degree of homogeneity with respect to the target crop. This trade-off between size and purity can be adjusted according to the end-user's requirements. The method is implemented over various agricultural landscapes with contrasting spatial patterns, demonstrating its operational applicability. This diagnostic approach can be used: (i) to guide users in choosing the most appropriate imagery for their application, (ii) to evaluate the adequacy of existing remote sensing systems for monitoring agriculture in different regions of the world and (iii) to provide guidelines for space agencies to design future instruments dedicated to agriculture monitoring.
The mitigation potential of vegetation-driven biophysical effects is strongly influenced by the background climate and will therefore be influenced by global warming. Based on an ensemble of remote ...sensing datasets, here we first estimate the temperature sensitivities to changes in leaf area over the period 2003-2014 as a function of key environmental drivers. These sensitivities are then used to predict temperature changes induced by future leaf area dynamics under four scenarios. Results show that by 2100, under high-emission scenario, greening will likely mitigate land warming by 0.71 ± 0.40 °C, and 83% of such effect (0.59 ± 0.41 °C) is driven by the increase in plant carbon sequestration, while the remaining cooling (0.12 ± 0.05 °C) is due to biophysical land-atmosphere interactions. In addition, our results show a large potential of vegetation to reduce future land warming in the very-stringent scenario (35 ± 20% of the overall warming signal), whereas this effect is limited to 11 ± 6% under the high-emission scenario.
Forests play a key role in humanity's current challenge to mitigate climate change thanks to their capacity to sequester carbon. Preserving and expanding forest cover is considered essential to ...enhance this carbon sink. However, changing the forest cover can further affect the climate system through biophysical effects. One such effect that is seldom studied is how afforestation can alter the cloud regime, which can potentially have repercussions on the hydrological cycle, the surface radiation budget and on planetary albedo itself. Here we provide a global scale assessment of this effect derived from satellite remote sensing observations. We show that for 67% of sampled areas across the world, afforestation would increase low level cloud cover, which should have a cooling effect on the planet. We further reveal a dependency of this effect on forest type, notably in Europe where needleleaf forests generate more clouds than broadleaf forests.
•We developed a global, consistent high space–time resolution dataset of SUHI.•Our data offer a global insight into the space–time variability of SUHI.•We found high variability of SUHI, with 3-day ...maxima much higher than seasonal medians.•The intensity of extreme SUHI is increasing worldwide, faster than the median SUHI.
Surface temperatures are generally higher in cities than in rural surroundings. This phenomenon, known as Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI), increases the risk of heat-related human illnesses and mortality. Past global studies analysed this phenomenon aggregated at city scale or over seasonal and annual time periods, while human impacts strongly depend on shorter term heat stress experienced locally. Here we develop a global long-term high-resolution dataset of daytime SUHI, offering an insight into the space–time variability of the urban–rural temperature differences which is unprecedented at global scale. Our results show that across urban areas worldwide over the period 2003–2020, 3-day SUHI extremes are on average more than twice as high as the warm-season median SUHI, with local exceedances up to 10 K. Over this period, SUHI extremes have increased more rapidly than warm-season medians, and averaged worldwide are now 1.04 K or 31% higher compared to 2003. This can be linked with increasing urbanisation, more frequent heatwaves, and greening of the earth, processes that are all expected to continue in the coming decades. Within many cities there are hotspots where extreme SUHI intensity is 10–15 K higher compared to relatively cooler city parts. Given the limited human adaptability to heat stress, our results advocate for mitigation strategies targeted at reducing SUHI extremes in the most vulnerable and exposed city neighbourhoods.
The population experiencing high temperatures in cities is rising due to anthropogenic climate change, settlement expansion, and population growth. Yet, efficient tools to evaluate potential ...intervention strategies to reduce population exposure to Land Surface Temperature (LST) extremes are still lacking. Here, we implement a spatial regression model based on remote sensing data that is able to assess the population exposure to LST extremes in urban environments across 200 cities based on surface properties like vegetation cover and distance to water bodies. We define exposure as the number of days per year where LST exceeds a given threshold multiplied by the total urban population exposed, in person ⋅ day. Our findings reveal that urban vegetation plays a considerable role in decreasing the exposure of the urban population to LST extremes. We show that targeting high-exposure areas reduces vegetation needed for the same decrease in exposure compared to uniform treatment.
Abstract
Global vegetation and associated ecosystem services critically depend on soil moisture availability which has decreased in many regions during the last three decades. While spatial patterns ...of vegetation sensitivity to global soil water have been recently investigated, long-term changes in vegetation sensitivity to soil water availability are still unclear. Here we assess global vegetation sensitivity to soil moisture during 1982-2017 by applying explainable machine learning with observation-based leaf area index (LAI) and hydro-climate anomaly data. We show that LAI sensitivity to soil moisture significantly increases in many semi-arid and arid regions. LAI sensitivity trends are associated with multiple hydro-climate and ecological variables, and strongest increasing trends occur in the most water-sensitive regions which additionally experience declining precipitation. State-of-the-art land surface models do not reproduce this increasing sensitivity as they misrepresent water-sensitive regions and sensitivity strength. Our sensitivity results imply an increasing ecosystem vulnerability to water availability which can lead to exacerbated reductions in vegetation carbon uptake under future intensified drought, consequently amplifying climate change.
The past decades have seen an increasing demand for operational monitoring of crop conditions and food production at local to global scales. To properly use satellite Earth observation for such ...agricultural monitoring, high temporal revisit frequency over vast geographic areas is necessary. However, this often limits the spatial resolution that can be used. The challenge of discriminating pixels that correspond to a particular crop type, a prerequisite for crop specific agricultural monitoring, remains daunting when the signal encoded in pixels stems from several land uses (mixed pixels), e.g., over heterogeneous landscapes where individual fields are often smaller than individual pixels. The question of determining the optimal pixel sizes for an application such as crop identification is therefore naturally inclined towards finding the coarsest acceptable pixel sizes, so as to potentially benefit from what instruments with coarser pixels can offer. To answer this question, this study builds upon and extends a conceptual framework to quantitatively define pixel size requirements for crop identification via image classification. This tool can be modulated using different parameterizations to explore trade-offs between pixel size and pixel purity when addressing the question of crop identification. Results over contrasting landscapes in Central Asia demonstrate that the task of finding the optimum pixel size does not have a "one-size-fits-all" solution. The resulting values for pixel size and purity that are suitable for crop identification proved to be specific to a given landscape, and for each crop they differed across different landscapes. Over the same time series, different crops were not identifiable simultaneously in the season and these requirements further changed over the years, reflecting the different agro-ecological conditions the crops are growing in. Results indicate that sensors like MODIS (250 m) could be suitable for identifying major crop classes in the study sites, whilst sensors like Landsat (30 m) should be considered for object-based classification. The proposed framework is generic and can be applied to any agricultural landscape, thereby potentially serving to guide recommendations for designing dedicated EO missions that can satisfy the requirements in terms of pixel size to identify and discriminate crop types.
Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth has impacts on the biophysical properties of the surface and ultimately on the local climate. Depending on the specific type of vegetation change and on the ...background climate, the resulting competing biophysical processes can have a net warming or cooling effect, which can further vary both spatially and seasonally. Due to uncertain climate impacts and the lack of robust observations, biophysical effects are not yet considered in land-based climate policies. Here we present a dataset based on satellite remote sensing observations that provides the potential changes i) of the full surface energy balance, ii) at global scale, and iii) for multiple vegetation transitions, as would now be required for the comprehensive evaluation of land based mitigation plans. We anticipate that this dataset will provide valuable information to benchmark Earth system models, to assess future scenarios of land cover change and to develop the monitoring, reporting and verification guidelines required for the implementation of mitigation plans that account for biophysical land processes.
Information on vegetation status can be retrieved from satellite observations by modelling and inverting canopy radiative transfer. Agricultural monitoring and yield forecasting could greatly benefit ...from such techniques by coupling crop growth models with crop specific information through data assimilation. An indicator which would be particularly interesting to obtain from remote sensing is the total surface of photosynthetically active plant tissue, or green area index (GAI). Currently, the major limitation is that the imagery that can be used operationally and economically over large areas with high temporal frequency has a coarse spatial resolution. This paper demonstrates how it is possible to characterise the regional crop specific GAI range along with its temporal dynamic using MODIS imagery by controlling the degree at which the observation footprints of the coarse pixels fall within the crop-specific mask delineating the target. This control is done by modelling the instrument's point spread function and by filtering out less reliable GAI estimations in both the spatial and temporal dimensions using thresholds on 3 variables: pixel purity, observation coverage and view zenith angle. The difference in performance between MODIS and fine spatial resolution to estimate the median GAI of a given crop over a 40
×
40
km study region can be reduced to a RMSE of 0.053
m
2/m
2. The consistency between fine and coarse spatial resolution GAI estimations suggests a possible instrument synergy whereby the high temporal resolution of MODIS provides the general GAI trajectory and while high spatial resolution can be used to estimate the local GAI spatial heterogeneity.
►Point spread function model is used to calculate MODIS crop specific pixel purity. ►Pixel-target adequacy controlled using VZA, observation coverage and pixel purity. ►Regional GAI spatial range and temporal dynamic is grasped with MODIS. ►Temporally rich MODIS GAI can be used to correct high spatial resolution GAI bias. ►Consistency in GAI retrieval algorithm opens possibility for instrument synergy.
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