Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a global epidemic associated with increased health expenditure, and low quality of life. Many non-genetic risk factors have been suggested, but their overall ...epidemiological credibility has not been assessed.
We searched PubMed to capture all meta-analyses and Mendelian randomization studies for risk factors of T2DM. For each association, we estimated the summary effect size, its 95% confidence and prediction interval, and the I2 metric. We examined the presence of small-study effects and excess significance bias. We assessed the epidemiological credibility through a set of predefined criteria.
We captured 86 eligible papers (142 associations) covering a wide range of biomarkers, medical conditions, and dietary, lifestyle, environmental and psychosocial factors. Adiposity, low hip circumference, serum biomarkers (increased level of alanine aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, uric acid and C-reactive protein, and decreased level of adiponectin and vitamin D), an unhealthy dietary pattern (increased consumption of processed meat and sugar-sweetened beverages, decreased intake of whole grains, coffee and heme iron, and low adherence to a healthy dietary pattern), low level of education and conscientiousness, decreased physical activity, high sedentary time and duration of television watching, low alcohol drinking, smoking, air pollution, and some medical conditions (high systolic blood pressure, late menarche age, gestational diabetes, metabolic syndrome, preterm birth) presented robust evidence for increased risk of T2DM.
A healthy lifestyle pattern could lead to decreased risk for T2DM. Future randomized clinical trials should focus on identifying efficient strategies to modify harmful daily habits and predisposing dietary patterns.
Abstract
Genetic studies have examined body-shape measures adjusted for body mass index (BMI), while allometric indices are additionally adjusted for height. We performed the first genome-wide ...association study of A Body Shape Index (ABSI), Hip Index (HI) and the new Waist-to-Hip Index and compared these with traditional indices, using data from the UK Biobank Resource for 219,872 women and 186,825 men with white British ancestry and Bayesian linear mixed-models (BOLT-LMM). One to two thirds of the loci identified for allometric body-shape indices were novel. Most prominent was
rs72959041
variant in
RSPO3
gene, expressed in visceral adipose tissue and regulating adrenal cell renewal. Highly ranked were genes related to morphogenesis and organogenesis, previously additionally linked to cancer development and progression. Genetic associations were fewer in men compared to women. Prominent region-specific associations showed variants in loci
VEGFA
and
HMGA1
for ABSI and
KLF14
for HI in women, and
C5orf67
and
HOXC4/5
for ABSI and
RSPO3, VEGFA
and
SLC30A10
for HI in men. Although more variants were associated with waist and hip circumference adjusted for BMI compared to ABSI and HI, associations with height had previously been reported for many of the additional variants, illustrating the importance of adjusting correctly for height.
Although neutrophils have been linked to the progression of cancer, uncertainty exists around their association with cancer outcomes, depending on the site, outcome and treatments considered. We ...aimed to evaluate the strength and validity of evidence on the association between either the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) or tumour-associated neutrophils (TAN) and cancer prognosis.
We searched MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception to 29 May 2020 for systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies on neutrophil counts (here NLR or TAN) and specific cancer outcomes related to disease progression or survival. The available evidence was graded as strong, highly suggestive, suggestive, weak or uncertain through the application of pre-set GRADE criteria.
A total of 204 meta-analyses from 86 studies investigating the association between either NLR or TAN and cancer outcomes met the criteria for inclusion. All but one meta-analyses found a hazard ratio (HR) which increased risk (HR > 1). We did not find sufficient meta-analyses to evaluate TAN and cancer outcomes (N = 9). When assessed for magnitude of effect, significance and bias related to heterogeneity and small study effects, 18 (9%) associations between NLR and outcomes in composite cancer endpoints (combined analysis), cancers treated with immunotherapy and some site specific cancers (urinary, nasopharyngeal, gastric, breast, endometrial, soft tissue sarcoma and hepatocellular cancers) were supported by strong evidence.
In total, 60 (29%) meta-analyses presented strong or highly suggestive evidence. Although the NLR and TAN hold clinical promise in their association with poor cancer prognosis, further research is required to provide robust evidence, assess causality and test clinical utility.
PROSPERO CRD42017069131 .
Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) has become a popular method for discovering genetic risk variants. Here, we overview both widely applied and newer statistical methods for ...GWAS meta-analysis, including issues of interpretation and assessment of sources of heterogeneity. We also discuss extensions of these meta-analysis methods to complex data. Where possible, we provide guidelines for researchers who are planning to use these methods. Furthermore, we address special issues that may arise for meta-analysis of sequencing data and rare variants. Finally, we discuss challenges and solutions surrounding the goals of making meta-analysis data publicly available and building powerful consortia.
Summary Background The cause of multiple sclerosis is believed to involve environmental exposure and genetic susceptibility. We aimed to summarise the environmental risk factors that have been ...studied in relation to onset of multiple sclerosis, assess whether there is evidence for diverse biases in this literature, and identify risk factors without evidence of biases. Methods We searched PubMed from inception to Nov 22, 2014, to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies that examined associations between environmental factors and multiple sclerosis. For each meta-analysis we estimated the summary effect size by use of random-effects and fixed-effects models, the 95% CI, and the 95% prediction interval. We estimated the between-study heterogeneity expressed by I2 (defined as large for I2 ≥50%), evidence of small-study effects (ie, large studies had significantly more conservative results than smaller studies), and evidence of excess significance bias (ie, more studies than expected with significant results). Findings Overall, 44 unique meta-analyses including 416 primary studies of different risk factors and multiple sclerosis were examined, covering a wide range of risk factors: vaccinations, comorbid diseases, surgeries, traumatic events and accidents, exposure to environmental agents, and biochemical, infectious, and musculoskeletal biomarkers. 23 of 44 meta-analyses had results that were significant at p values less than 0·05 and 11 at p values less than 0·001 under the random-effects model. Only three of the 11 significant meta-analyses (p<0·001) included more than 1000 cases, had 95% prediction intervals excluding the null value, and were not suggestive of large heterogeneity ( I2 <50%), small-study effects (p for Egger's test >0·10), or excess significance (p>0·05). These were IgG seropositivity to Epstein-Barr virus nuclear antigen (EBNA) (random effects odds ratio OR 4·46, 95% CI 3·26–6·09; p for effect size=1·5 × 10−19 ; I2 =43%), infectious mononucleosis (2·17, 1·97–2·39; p=3·1 × 10−50 ; I2 =0%), and smoking (1·52, 1·39–1·66; p=1·7 × 10−18; I2 =0%). Interpretation Many studies on environmental factors associated with multiple sclerosis have caveats casting doubts on their validity. Data from more and better-designed studies are needed to establish robust evidence. A biomarker of Epstein-Barr virus (anti-EBNA IgG seropositivity), infectious mononucleosis, and smoking showed the strongest consistent evidence of an association. Funding None.
Associations of liver, metabolic, and inflammatory biomarkers in blood with body shape are unclear, because waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) are dependent on overall body size, ...resulting in bias. We have used the allometric "a body shape index" (ABSI = WC
Formula: see textWeight
Formula: see textHeight
) and hip index (HI
= HC
Formula: see textWeight
Formula: see textHeight
, HI
= HC
Formula: see textWeight
Formula: see textHeight
), which are independent of body mass index (BMI) by design, in multivariable linear regression models for 121,879 UK Biobank men and 135,559 women. Glucose, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), triglycerides, low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, apolipoprotein-B, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), gamma-glutamyltransferase, and lymphocytes were associated positively with BMI and ABSI but inversely with HI. High-density-lipoprotein cholesterol and apolipoprotein-A1 were associated inversely with BMI and ABSI but positively with HI. Lipid-related biomarkers and ALT were associated only with HI in obese men. C-reactive protein, neutrophils, monocytes, and alkaline phosphatase were associated positively, while bilirubin was associated inversely, with BMI and ABSI but not with HI. Associations were consistent within the clinical reference ranges but were lost or changed direction for low or high biomarker levels. Our study confirms associations with waist and hip size, independent of BMI, for metabolic biomarkers but only with waist size for inflammatory biomarkers, suggesting different contribution of the mechanistic pathways related to body shape.
The incremental value of polygenic risk scores in addition to well-established risk prediction models for coronary artery disease (CAD) is uncertain.
To examine whether a polygenic risk score for CAD ...improves risk prediction beyond pooled cohort equations.
Observational study of UK Biobank participants enrolled from 2006 to 2010. A case-control sample of 15 947 prevalent CAD cases and equal number of age and sex frequency-matched controls was used to optimize the predictive performance of a polygenic risk score for CAD based on summary statistics from published genome-wide association studies. A separate cohort of 352 660 individuals (with follow-up to 2017) was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the polygenic risk score, pooled cohort equations, and both combined for incident CAD.
Polygenic risk score for CAD, pooled cohort equations, and both combined.
CAD (myocardial infarction and its related sequelae). Discrimination, calibration, and reclassification using a risk threshold of 7.5% were assessed.
In the cohort of 352 660 participants (mean age, 55.9 years; 205 297 women 58.2%) used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the examined models, there were 6272 incident CAD events over a median of 8 years of follow-up. CAD discrimination for polygenic risk score, pooled cohort equations, and both combined resulted in C statistics of 0.61 (95% CI, 0.60 to 0.62), 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.77), and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.79), respectively. The change in C statistic between the latter 2 models was 0.02 (95% CI, 0.01 to 0.03). Calibration of the models showed overestimation of risk by pooled cohort equations, which was corrected after recalibration. Using a risk threshold of 7.5%, addition of the polygenic risk score to pooled cohort equations resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 4.4% (95% CI, 3.5% to 5.3%) for cases and -0.4% (95% CI, -0.5% to -0.4%) for noncases (overall net reclassification improvement, 4.0% 95% CI, 3.1% to 4.9%).
The addition of a polygenic risk score for CAD to pooled cohort equations was associated with a statistically significant, yet modest, improvement in the predictive accuracy for incident CAD and improved risk stratification for only a small proportion of individuals. The use of genetic information over the pooled cohort equations model warrants further investigation before clinical implementation.
Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic demyelinating disease that is associated with permanent disability and low quality of life. Development of MS is attributed to a combination of genetic and ...environmental factors. Genome-wide association studies revealed more than 200 variants that are associated with risk of MS. An umbrella review showed that smoking, history of infectious mononucleosis, and anti-Epstein–Barr virus nuclear antigen (anti-EBNA) immunoglobulin G (IgG) seropositivity are credible risk factors of MS. In the present narrative review, we updated our published umbrella review, showing that body mass index in childhood and adolescence and anti-viral capsid antigen (anti-VCA) IgG seropositivity are additional credible risk factors of MS. In addition, we discuss the findings from Mendelian randomization studies, which present evidence for a potential causal role of serum vitamin D and adulthood body mass index on risk of MS. Finally, we discuss the potential limitations of meta-analyses, umbrella reviews, and Mendelian randomization studies in the search for risk factors of MS.
Abstract
Aims
Inflammation is an important driver of hypertension. Periodontitis is a chronic inflammatory disease, which could provide a mechanism for pro-hypertensive immune activation, but ...evidence of a causal relationship in humans is scarce. We aimed to investigate the nature of the association between periodontitis and hypertension.
Methods and results
We performed a two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis in the ∼750 000 UK-Biobank/International Consortium of Blood Pressure-Genome-Wide Association Studies participants using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in SIGLEC5, DEFA1A3, MTND1P5, and LOC107984137 loci GWAS-linked to periodontitis, to ascertain their effect on blood pressure (BP) estimates. This demonstrated a significant relationship between periodontitis-linked SNPs and BP phenotypes. We then performed a randomized intervention trial on the effects of treatment of periodontitis on BP. One hundred and one hypertensive patients with moderate/severe periodontitis were randomized to intensive periodontal treatment (IPT; sub- and supragingival scaling/chlorhexidine; n = 50) or control periodontal treatment (CPT; supragingival scaling; n = 51) with mean ambulatory 24-h (ABPM) systolic BP (SBP) as primary outcome. Intensive periodontal treatment improved periodontal status at 2 months, compared to CPT. This was accompanied by a substantial reduction in mean SBP in IPT compared to the CPT (mean difference of −11.1 mmHg; 95% CI 6.5–15.8; P < 0.001). Systolic BP reduction was correlated to periodontal status improvement. Diastolic BP and endothelial function (flow-mediated dilatation) were also improved by IPT. These cardiovascular changes were accompanied by reductions in circulating IFN-γ and IL-6 as well as activated (CD38+) and immunosenescent (CD57+CD28null) CD8+T cells, previously implicated in hypertension.
Conclusion
A causal relationship between periodontitis and BP was observed providing proof of concept for development of clinical trial in a large cohort of hypertensive patients. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02131922.
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia. We designed an umbrella review to systematically assess the epidemiological credibility of the associations of non-genetic factors with ...risk of AF. We searched PubMed and EMBASE from inception to December 31, 2018 to identify systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies for the association of non-genetic factors with risk of AF. For each meta-analysis, we used the random-effects model, and we estimated the 95% confidence and prediction intervals. We also assessed between-study heterogeneity, small-study effects and excess significance bias. We identified 34 eligible papers that examined 51 associations of 42 unique non-genetic factors with risk of AF. Eighteen associations remained statistically significant at
P
value < 1 × 10
−6
. Thirty-one associations presented large or very large between-study heterogeneity. Eight associations presented evidence for small-study effects and 13 associations had evidence for excess significance bias. Ten associations, i.e. corrected QT interval, alcohol consumption (highest vs. lowest category, per 1 drink/day increase), body mass index (> 30 units vs. < 30 units, per 5 units increase), waist circumference, body weight, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and smoking (ever vs. never, per 10 cigarettes/day increase) were supported by convincing or highly suggestive evidence in meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies. Type 2 diabetes mellitus, markers of adiposity, alcohol consumption, smoking, and corrected QT interval constitute credible risk factors of AF. Our proposed grading may guide the design of future studies, including Mendelian randomization studies, to assess whether these associations are causal.
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