•New scheme to correct for position and proper motion errors in 19 star catalogs.•Reference catalog subset of PPMXL corresponding to 2MASS based astrometry.•Improvement in residual statistics for ...Apophis, Bennu, Golevka, and Pan-STARRS.•Improvement in ephemeris prediction errors.•New weighting scheme to mitigate correlations between observation errors.
We provide a scheme to correct asteroid astrometric observations for star catalog systematic errors due to inaccurate star positions and proper motions. As reference we select the most accurate stars in the PPMXL catalog, i.e., those based on 2MASS astrometry. We compute position and proper motion corrections for 19 of the most used star catalogs. The use of these corrections provides better ephemeris predictions and improves the error statistics of astrometric observations, e.g., by removing most of the regional systematic errors previously seen in Pan-STARRS PS1 asteroid astrometry. The correction table is publicly available at ftp://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/pub/ssd/debias/debias_2014.tgz and can be freely used in orbit determination algorithms to obtain more reliable asteroid trajectories.
Context. The recent close approach of the near-Earth asteroid (3200) Phaethon offered a rare opportunity to obtain high-quality observational data of various types. Aims. We used the newly obtained ...optical light curves to improve the spin and shape model of Phaethon and to determine its surface physical properties derived by thermophysical modeling. We also used the available astrometric observations of Phaethon, including those obtained by the Arecibo radar and the Gaia spacecraft, to constrain the secular drift of the orbital semimajor axis. This constraint allowed us to estimate the bulk density by assuming that the drift is dominated by the Yarkovsky effect. Methods. We used the convex inversion model to derive the spin orientation and 3D shape model of Phaethon, and a detailed numerical approach for an accurate analysis of the Yarkovsky effect. Results. We obtained a unique solution for Phaethon’s pole orientation at (318 ° , − 47 ° ) ecliptic longitude and latitude (both with an uncertainty of 5°), and confirm the previously reported thermophysical properties (D = 5.1 ± 0.2 km, Γ = 600 ± 200J m−2 s−0.5 K−1). Phaethon has a top-like shape with possible north-south asymmetry. The characteristic size of the regolith grains is 1 − 2 cm. The orbit analysis reveals a secular drift of the semimajor axis of −(6.9 ± 1.9)×10−4 au Myr−1. With the derived volume-equivalent size of 5.1 km, the bulk density is 1.67 ± 0.47 g cm−3. If the size is slightly larger ∼5.7 − 5.8 km, as suggested by radar data, the bulk density would decrease to 1.48 ± 0.42 g cm−3. We further investigated the suggestion that Phaethon may be in a cluster with asteroids (155140) 2005 UD and (225416) 1999 YC that was formed by rotational fission of a critically spinning parent body. Conclusions. Phaethon’s bulk density is consistent with typical values for large (> 100 km) C-complex asteroids and supports its association with asteroid (2) Pallas, as first suggested by dynamical modeling. These findings render a cometary origin unlikely for Phaethon.
We present an updated set of near-Earth asteroids with a Yarkovsky-related semimajor axis drift detected from the orbital fit to the astrometry. We find 87 reliable detections after filtering for the ...signal-to-noise ratio of the Yarkovsky drift estimate and making sure the estimate is compatible with the physical properties of the analysed object. Furthermore, we find a list of 24 marginally significant detections for which future astrometry could result in a Yarkovsky detection. A further outcome of the filtering procedure is a list of detections that we consider spurious because they are either unrealistic or not explicable by the Yarkovsky effect. Among the smallest asteroids of our sample, we determined four detections of solar radiation pressure in addition to the Yarkovsky effect. As the data volume increases in the near future, our goal is to develop methods to generate very long lists of asteroids that have a Yarkovsky effect that is reliably detected and have limited amounts of case by case specific adjustments. Furthermore, we discuss the improvements this work could bring to impact monitoring. In particular, we exhibit two asteroids for which the adoption of a non-gravitational model is needed to make reliable impact predictions.
The OSIRIS-REx mission will conduct a Radio Science investigation of the asteroid Bennu with a primary goal of estimating the mass and gravity field of the asteroid. The spacecraft will conduct ...proximity operations around Bennu for over 1 year, during which time radiometric tracking data, optical landmark tracking images, and altimetry data will be obtained that can be used to make these estimates. Most significantly, the main Radio Science experiment will be a 9-day arc of quiescent operations in a 1-km nominally circular terminator orbit. The pristine data from this arc will allow the Radio Science team to determine the significant components of the gravity field up to the fourth spherical harmonic degree. The Radio Science team will also be responsible for estimating the surface accelerations, surface slopes, constraints on the internal density distribution of Bennu, the rotational state of Bennu to confirm YORP estimates, and the ephemeris of Bennu that incorporates a detailed model of the Yarkovsky effect.
•We deal with the short-term hazard from newly discovered asteroids.•We present an orbit determination technique suitable for short observation arcs.•Systematic ranging allows the early detection of ...short-term impact threats.•We developed a system to routinely analyze objects on the MPC NEO Confirmation Page.
We describe systematic ranging, an orbit determination technique suitable to assess the near-term Earth impact hazard posed by newly discovered asteroids. For these late warning cases, the time interval covered by the observations is generally short, perhaps a few hours or even less, which leads to severe degeneracies in the orbit estimation process. The systematic ranging approach gets around these degeneracies by performing a raster scan in the poorly-constrained space of topocentric range and range rate, while the plane of sky position and motion are directly tied to the recorded observations. This scan allows us to identify regions corresponding to collision solutions, as well as potential impact times and locations. From the probability distribution of the observation errors, we obtain a probability distribution in the orbital space and then estimate the probability of an Earth impact. We show how this technique is effective for a number of examples, including 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA, the only two asteroids to date discovered prior to impact.
We analyze the trajectories of 313 particles seen in the near‐Bennu environment between December 2018 and September 2019. Of these, 65% follow suborbital trajectories, 20% undergo more than one ...orbital revolution around the asteroid, and 15% directly escape on hyperbolic trajectories. The median lifetime of these particles is ∼6 hr. The trajectories are sensitive to Bennu's gravitational field, which allows us to reliably estimate the spherical harmonic coefficients through degree 8 and to resolve nonuniform mass distribution through degree 3. The particles are perturbed by solar radiation pressure, enabling effective area‐to‐mass ratios to be estimated. By assuming that particles are oblate ellipsoids of revolution, and incorporating photometric measurements, we find a median axis ratio of 0.27 and diameters for equivalent‐volume spheres ranging from 0.22–6.1 cm, with median 0.74 cm. Our size distribution agrees well with that predicted for fragmentation due to diurnal thermal cycling. Detailed models of known accelerations do not produce a match to the observed trajectories, so we also estimate empirical accelerations. These accelerations appear to be related to mismodeling of radiation pressure, but we cannot rule out contributions from mass loss. Most ejections take place at local solar times in the afternoon and evening (12:00–24:00), although they occur at any time of day. We independently identify ten ejection events, some of which have previously been reported. We document a case where a particle ricocheted off the surface, revealing a coefficient of restitution 0.57±0.01 and demonstrating that some apparent ejections are not related to surface processes.
Plain Language Summary
The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security, Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS‐REx) mission discovered that near‐Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu is periodically ejecting small particles from its surface, placing it in the uncommon class of “active asteroids.” We linked together individual detections of ejected particles and used numerical models of the forces acting on them to ascertain their trajectories and fates. We found that most particles have suborbital trajectories, meaning they fall back to Bennu's surface shortly after being ejected, but some orbit Bennu for days at a time, and some escape directly into space. From the particle trajectories, we are able to estimate their sizes (comparable to pebbles, from a few millimeters to a few centimeters in diameter) and shapes (probably flake like). Their trajectories also make it possible to estimate Bennu's gravity field more precisely than spacecraft measurements and help shed light on the possible causes of the ejections.
Key Points
Most of the 313 particles we study have suborbital trajectories, but some orbit Bennu and others directly escape
The particles appear to have flake‐like shapes and have effective diameters 0.22–6.1 cm with median 0.74 cm
Ejections tend to take place in the local afternoon and evening but can occur anytime
Aims. From light curve and radar data we know the spin axis of only 43 near-Earth asteroids. In this paper we attempt to constrain the spin axis obliquity distribution of near-Earth asteroids by ...leveraging the Yarkovsky effect and its dependence on an asteroid’s obliquity. Methods. By modeling the physical parameters driving the Yarkovsky effect, we solve an inverse problem where we test different simple parametric obliquity distributions. Each distribution results in a predicted Yarkovsky effect distribution that we compare with a χ2 test to a dataset of 125 Yarkovsky estimates. Results. We find different obliquity distributions that are statistically satisfactory. In particular, among the considered models, the best-fit solution is a quadratic function, which only depends on two parameters, favors extreme obliquities consistent with the expected outcomes from the YORP effect, has a 2:1 ratio between retrograde and direct rotators, which is in agreement with theoretical predictions, and is statistically consistent with the distribution of known spin axes of near-Earth asteroids.
In this paper we perform an assessment of the 2880 Earth impact risk for Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA. To obtain reliable predictions we analyze the contribution of the observational dataset and the ...astrometric treatment, the numerical error in the long-term integration, and the different accelerations acting on the asteroid. The main source of uncertainty is the Yarkovsky effect, which we statistically model starting from 1950 DA’s available physical characterization, astrometry, and dynamical properties. Before the release of 2012 radar data, this modeling suggests that 1950 DA has 99% likelihood of being a retrograde rotator. By using a 7-dimensional Monte Carlo sampling we map 1950 DA’s uncertainty region to the 2880 close approach b-plane and find a 5×10-4 impact probability. With the recently released 2012 radar observations, the direct rotation is definitely ruled out and the impact probability decreases to 2.5×10-4.
Context. The rotation states of small asteroids are affected by a net torque arising from an anisotropic sunlight reflection and thermal radiation from the asteroids’ surfaces. On long timescales, ...this so-called YORP effect can change asteroid spin directions and their rotation periods. Aims. We analyzed lightcurves of four selected near-Earth asteroids with the aim of detecting secular changes in their rotation rates that are caused by YORP or at least of putting upper limits on such changes. Methods. We use the lightcurve inversion method to model the observed lightcurves and include the change in the rotation rate dω/ dt as a free parameter of optimization. To enlarge the time line of observations and to increase the sensitivity of the method, we collected more than 70 new lightcurves. For asteroids Toro and Cacus, we used thermal infrared data from the WISE spacecraft and estimated their size and thermal inertia by means of a thermophysical model. We also used the currently available optical and radar astrometry of Toro, Ra-Shalom, and Cacus to infer the Yarkovsky effect. Results. We detected a YORP acceleration of dω/ dt = (1.9 ± 0.3) × 10-8 rad d-2 for asteroid Cacus. The current astrometric data set is not sufficient to provide detection of the Yarkovsky effect in this case. For Toro, we have a tentative (2σ) detection of YORP from a significant improvement of the lightcurve fit for a nonzero value of dω/ dt = 3.0 × 10-9 rad d-2. We note an excellent agreement between the observed secular change of the semimajor axis da/ dt and the theoretical expectation for densities in the 2–2.5 g cm-3 range. For asteroid Eger, we confirmed the previously published YORP detection with more data and updated the YORP value to (1.1 ± 0.5) × 10-8 rad d-2. We also updated the shape model of asteroid Ra-Shalom and put an upper limit for the change of the rotation rate to | dω/ dt | ≲ 1.5 × 10-8 rad d-2. Ra-Shalom has a greater than 3σ Yarkovsky detection with a theoretical value consistent with observations assuming its size and/or density is slightly larger than the nominally expected values. Using the convex shape models and spin parameters reconstructed from lightcurves, we computed theoretical YORP values and compared them with those measured. They agree with each other within the expected uncertainties of the model.
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