Why are acts of organized resistance associated with coups? Inspired by the Arab Spring, a large literature suggests that militaries confronted with civil resistance tend to side with protesters and ...oust their government. In the historically most coup-prone environment of insurgencies, however, alliances between the military and protesters are implausible because soldiers suspect insurgents behind social dissent. Disentangling different types of resistance, this article analyzes whether and how strikes, demonstrations, riots, and guerrilla attacks affect the military’s disposition and ability to stage a coup during counterinsurgencies. We argue that only strikes trigger coup attempts. Soldiers interpret strikes as manifestations of a strengthening subversive enemy that threatens their victory over insurgents, while economic elites support a coup in the hope that the military will terminate costly walkouts. This interest alignment fosters military takeovers. We provide case-study evidence from Cold War Argentina and Venezuela to show our suggested mechanism at work. Demonstrating the scope of our argument, we quantitatively analyze coup attempts in counterinsurgency worldwide (1950–2005). Results show that strikes increase wartime coup risk, whereas demonstrations, riots, and guerrilla attacks do not. The findings highlight the backfiring potential of nonviolent resistance with important implications for post-coup political orders and democratization prospects.
Research on postwar peace focuses primarily on how elites and institutions can prevent relapse into civil war. In line with this special issue’s focus on citizens’ experiences, we take a micro-level ...approach to explore peace beyond the absence of war. We investigate how members of opposing sides experience peace a decade after a decisive victory of the majority. Using original survey data from a representative sample of 2000 respondents in 2018 Sri Lanka, we find that even one decade after the conflict members of the Sinhalese winning majority are consistently more likely to report improvements in peace than Tamils, who were represented by the defeated minority. But the benefit of a “victor’s peace” does not seem to translate into an optimistic outlook of the victorious group, nor does it increase people’s endorsement for repressive state measures. Despite the drastically improved physical security for the defeated ethnic minority since the war, they experience a deterioration in other dimensions of peace. Our findings have important implications for a deeper understanding of variations in peace and reconciliation processes.
Autocrats depend on a capable secret police. Anecdotal evidence, however, often characterizes agents as surprisingly mediocre in skill and intellect. To explain this puzzle, this article focuses on ...the career incentives underachieving individuals face in the regular security apparatus. Low-performing officials in hierarchical organizations have little chance of being promoted or filling lucrative positions. To salvage their careers, these officials are willing to undertake burdensome secret police work. Using data on all 4,287 officers who served in autocratic Argentina (1975-83), we study biographic differences between secret police agents and the entire recruitment pool. We find that low-achieving officers were stuck within the regime hierarchy, threatened with discharge, and thus more likely to join the secret police for future benefits. The study demonstrates how state bureaucracies breed mundane career concerns that produce willing enforcers and cement violent regimes. This has implications for the understanding of autocratic consolidation and democratic breakdown.
Does more media censorship imply more regime stability? We argue that censorship may cause mass disapproval for censoring regimes. In particular, we expect that censorship backfires when citizens can ...falsify media content through alternative sources of information. We empirically test our theoretical argument in an autocratic regime—the German Democratic Republic (GDR). Results demonstrate how exposed state censorship on the country's emigration crisis fueled outrage in the weeks before the 1989 revolution. Combining original weekly approval surveys on GDR state television and daily content data of West German news programs with a quasi-experimental research design, we show that recipients disapproved of censorship if they were able to detect misinformation through conflicting reports on Western television. Our findings have important implications for the study of censoring systems in contemporary autocracies, external democracy promotion, and campaigns aimed at undermining trust in traditional journalism.
Abstract
Dictators, rebel commanders, and mafia bosses frequently delegate gruesome and immoral tasks to their subordinates. However, most individuals want to avoid such work. This analytical essay ...proposes an institutional logic to understand how dictatorships, insurgent organizations, and criminal gangs get their evil work done nonetheless. We argue that common features of organizations produce mundane career pressures that incentivize subordinates to zealously execute reprehensible tasks. Subordinates may come under pressure for six distinct reasons: incompetence, misconduct, origin, isolation, organizational backlog, and shrinkage. Superiors, in turn, can exploit that pressured subordinates hope to improve their prospects for advancement by loyally executing the organization’s evil tasks. Empirically, we illustrate how Nazi Germany utilized each of the suggested career pressures to staff the units in charge of the Holocaust. We highlight that our logic might also apply to less extreme forms of organizational evil. Together, the essay offers a novel perspective to demystify radical behavior in state and non-state organizations with important implications for our understanding of transnational terrorist violence and underworld crimes.
How does witnessing regime atrocities influence the political attitudes of bystanders? We argue that observing regime violence against innocent civilians triggers psychological dissonance between ...beliefs about the regime and the witnessed moral transgression. As a result, regime support should decrease among bystanders of state atrocities. We analyze original, highly disaggregated archival data from the Nazi death marches at the end of World War II, which confronted ordinary German citizens with the regime’s crimes. We find that locations with higher victim numbers had lower vote shares for right-wing nationalist parties after the war. Supporting our proposed mechanism, we show that (1) this effect was strongest when Nazi crimes were at the center of public discourse and (2) that witnessing Nazi atrocities was associated with individuals’ rejection of Hitler 20 years later. The findings have implications for understanding democratization prospects and people’s nostalgia for fallen autocrats.
Measurements of cross sections of inelastic and diffractive processes in proton–proton collisions at LHC energies were carried out with the ALICE detector. The fractions of diffractive processes in ...inelastic collisions were determined from a study of gaps in charged particle pseudorapidity distributions: for single diffraction (diffractive mass
M
X
<200 GeV/
c
2
)
, and
, respectively at centre-of-mass energies
; for double diffraction (for a pseudorapidity gap Δ
η
>3)
σ
DD
/
σ
INEL
=0.11±0.03,0.12±0.05, and
, respectively at
. To measure the inelastic cross section, beam properties were determined with van der Meer scans, and, using a simulation of diffraction adjusted to data, the following values were obtained:
mb at
and
at
. The single- and double-diffractive cross sections were calculated combining relative rates of diffraction with inelastic cross sections. The results are compared to previous measurements at proton–antiproton and proton–proton colliders at lower energies, to measurements by other experiments at the LHC, and to theoretical models.
The production of the ψ(2S) charmonium state was measured with ALICE in Pb-Pb collisions at sqrts_{NN}=5.02 TeV, in the dimuon decay channel. A significant signal was observed for the first time at ...LHC energies down to zero transverse momentum, at forward rapidity (2.5<y<4). The measurement of the ratio of the inclusive production cross sections of the ψ(2S) and J/ψ resonances is reported as a function of the centrality of the collisions and of transverse momentum, in the region p_{T}<12 GeV/c. The results are compared with the corresponding measurements in pp collisions, by forming the double ratio σ^{ψ(2S)}/σ^{J/ψ}_{Pb-Pb}/σ^{ψ(2S)}/σ^{J/ψ}_{pp}. It is found that in Pb-Pb collisions the ψ(2S) is suppressed by a factor of ∼2 with respect to the J/ψ. The ψ(2S) nuclear modification factor R_{AA} was also obtained as a function of both centrality and p_{T}. The results show that the ψ(2S) resonance yield is strongly suppressed in Pb-Pb collisions, by a factor of up to ∼3 with respect to pp. Comparisons of cross section ratios with previous Super Proton Synchrotron findings by the NA50 experiment and of R_{AA} with higher-p_{T} results at LHC energy are also reported. These results and the corresponding comparisons with calculations of transport and statistical models address questions on the presence and properties of charmonium states in the quark-gluon plasma formed in nuclear collisions at the LHC.
The first measurement of the cross section for incoherent photonuclear production of J/ψ vector mesons as a function of the Mandelstam |t| variable is presented. The measurement was carried out with ...the ALICE detector at midrapidity, |y|<0.8, using ultraperipheral collisions of Pb nuclei at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of sqrts_{NN}=5.02 TeV. This rapidity interval corresponds to a Bjorken-x range (0.3-1.4)×10^{-3}. Cross sections are given in five |t| intervals in the range 0.04<|t|<1 GeV^{2} and compared to the predictions by different models. Models that ignore quantum fluctuations of the gluon density in the colliding hadron predict a |t| dependence of the cross section much steeper than in data. The inclusion of such fluctuations in the same models provides a better description of the data.
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