A new atmospheric-river detection and tracking scheme based on the magnitude and direction of integrated water vapour transport is presented and applied separately over 13 regions located along the ...west coasts of Europe (including North Africa) and North America. Four distinct reanalyses are considered, two of which cover the entire twentieth-century: NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis v2 (NOAA-20C) and ECMWF ERA-20C. Calculations are done separately for the OND and JFM-season and, for comparison with previous studies, for the ONDJFM-season as a whole. Comparing the AR-counts from NOAA-20C and ERA-20C with a running 31-year window looping through 1900–2010 reveals differences in the climatological mean and inter-annual variability which, at the start of the twentieth-century, are much more pronounced in western North America than in Europe. Correlating European AR-counts with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reveals a pattern reminiscent of the well-know precipitation dipole which is stable throughout the entire century. A similar analysis linking western North American AR-counts to the North Pacific index (NPI) is hampered by the aforementioned poor reanalysis agreement at the start of the century. During the second half of the twentieth-century, the strength of the NPI-link considerably varies with time in British Columbia and the Gulf of Alaska. Considering the period 1950–2010, AR-counts are then associated with other relevant large-scale circulation indices such as the East Atlantic, Scandinavian, Pacific-North American and West Pacific patterns (EA, SCAND, PNA and WP). Along the Atlantic coastline of the Iberian Peninsula and France, the EA-link is stronger than the NAO-link if the OND season is considered and the SCAND-link found in northern Europe is significant during both seasons. Along the west coast of North America, teleconnections are generally stronger during JFM in which case the NPI-link is significant in any of the five considered subregions, the PNA-link is significant in British Columbia and the Gulf of Alaska and the WP-link is so along the U.S. West Coast. During OND, these links are significant in the Gulf of Alaska only. If AR-counts are calculated upon persistent (instead of instantaneous) ARs, the link to the NAO weakens over the British Isles and western Iberia. For the experimental set-ups most closely mirroring those applied in Lavers et al. (J Geophys Res Atmos 117,
2012
. doi:
10.1029/2012JD018027
) and Ramos et al. (J Hydrometeorol 16(2):579–597,
2015
. doi:
10.1175/JHM-D-14-0103.1
), the NAO-links are completely or partly insignificant indicating that the inclusion of the persistence criterion notably alters the results. Visual support for the present study is provided by an exhaustive historical atmospheric river archive built at
http://www.meteo.unican.es/atmospheric-rivers
.
This work presents a comprehensive intercomparison of different alternatives for the calibration of seasonal forecasts, ranging from simple bias adjustment (BA)—e.g. quantile mapping—to more ...sophisticated ensemble recalibration (RC) methods—e.g. non-homogeneous Gaussian regression, which build on the temporal correspondence between the climate model and the corresponding observations to generate reliable predictions. To be as critical as possible, we validate the raw model and the calibrated forecasts in terms of a number of metrics which take into account different aspects of forecast quality (association, accuracy, discrimination and reliability). We focus on one-month lead forecasts of precipitation and temperature from four state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems, three of them included in the Copernicus Climate Change Service dataset (ECMWF-SEAS5, UK Met Office-GloSea5 and Météo France-System5) for boreal winter and summer over two illustrative regions with different skill characteristics (Europe and Southeast Asia). Our results indicate that both BA and RC methods effectively correct the large raw model biases, which is of paramount importance for users, particularly when directly using the climate model outputs to run impact models, or when computing climate indices depending on absolute values/thresholds. However, except for particular regions and/or seasons (typically with high skill), there is only marginal added value—with respect to the raw model outputs—beyond this bias removal. For those cases, RC methods can outperform BA ones, mostly due to an improvement in reliability. Finally, we also show that whereas an increase in the number of members only modestly affects the results obtained from calibration, longer hindcast periods lead to improved forecast quality, particularly for RC methods.
Display omitted
•Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are hybrid porous coordination materials.•MOFs have high surface-to-volume ratio crystalline structures.•MOFs have been mainly used for extraction and ...sensing of several food contaminants.•MOFs can be interestingly employed as nanocarriers, nanofillers and nanoreactors.
Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are high surface-to-volume ratio crystalline hybrid porous coordination materials composed of metal ions as nodes and organic linkers. The goal of this paper was to provide an updated and comprehensive state-of-the-art review of MOFs for different food applications such as active food contact materials, antimicrobial nanocarriers, controlled release nanosystems for active compounds, nanofillers for food packaging materials, food nanoreactors, food substance nanosensors, stabilizers and immobilizers for active compounds and enzymes, and extractors of food contaminants. Extraction and sensing of several food contaminants have been the main food applications of MOFs. The other applications listed above require further investigation, as they are at an early stage. However, interesting results are being reported for these other fields. Finally, an important limitation of MOFs has been the use of non-renewable feedstocks for their synthesis, but this has recently been solved through the manufacture and use of γ-cyclodextrin-based MOFs.
Statistical downscaling methods are popular post-processing tools which are widely used in many sectors to adapt the coarse-resolution biased outputs from global climate simulations to the ...regional-to-local scale typically required by users. They range from simple and pragmatic Bias Correction (BC) methods, which directly adjust the model outputs of interest (e.g. precipitation) according to the available local observations, to more complex Perfect Prognosis (PP) ones, which indirectly derive local predictions (e.g. precipitation) from appropriate upper-air large-scale model variables (predictors). Statistical downscaling methods have been extensively used and critically assessed in climate change applications; however, their advantages and limitations in seasonal forecasting are not well understood yet. In particular, a key problem in this context is whether they serve to improve the forecast quality/skill of raw model outputs beyond the adjustment of their systematic biases. In this paper we analyze this issue by applying two state-of-the-art BC and two PP methods to downscale precipitation from a multimodel seasonal hindcast in a challenging tropical region, the Philippines. To properly assess the potential added value beyond the reduction of model biases, we consider two validation scores which are not sensitive to changes in the mean (correlation and reliability categories). Our results show that, whereas BC methods maintain or worsen the skill of the raw model forecasts, PP methods can yield significant skill improvement (worsening) in cases for which the large-scale predictor variables considered are better (worse) predicted by the model than precipitation. For instance, PP methods are found to increase (decrease) model reliability in nearly 40% of the stations considered in boreal summer (autumn). Therefore, the choice of a convenient downscaling approach (either BC or PP) depends on the region and the season.
Conservation conflicts are increasing and need to be managed to minimise negative impacts on biodiversity, human livelihoods, and human well-being. Here, we explore strategies and case studies that ...highlight the long-term, dynamic nature of conflicts and the challenges to their management. Conflict management requires parties to recognise problems as shared ones, and engage with clear goals, a transparent evidence base, and an awareness of trade-offs. We hypothesise that conservation outcomes will be less durable when conservationists assert their interests to the detriment of others. Effective conflict management and long-term conservation benefit will be enhanced by better integration of the underpinning social context with the material impacts and evaluation of the efficacy of alternative conflict management approaches.
In the past few years, 3D electron microscopy (3DEM) has undergone a revolution in instrumentation and methodology. One of the central players in this wide-reaching change is the continuous ...development of image processing software. Here we present Scipion, a software framework for integrating several 3DEM software packages through a workflow-based approach. Scipion allows the execution of reusable, standardized, traceable and reproducible image-processing protocols. These protocols incorporate tools from different programs while providing full interoperability among them. Scipion is an open-source project that can be downloaded from http://scipion.cnb.csic.es.
The artificial olfaction, based on electronic systems (electronic noses), includes three basic functions that operate on an odorant: a sample handler, an array of gas sensors, and a signal-processing ...method. The response of these artificial systems can be the identity of the odorant, an estimate concentration of the odorant, or characteristic properties of the odour as might be perceived by a human. These electronic noses are bio inspired instruments that mimic the sense of smell.
The complexity of most odorants makes characterisation difficult with conventional analysis techniques, such as gas chromatography. Sensory analysis by a panel of experts is a costly process since it requires trained people who can work for only relatively short periods of time. The electronic noses are easy to build, provide short analysis times, in real time and on-line, and show high sensitivity and selectivity to the tested odorants. These systems are non-destructive techniques used to characterise odorants in diverse applications linked with the quality of life such as: control of foods, environmental quality, citizen security or clinical diagnostics.
However, there is much research still to be done especially with regard to new materials and sensors technology, data processing, interpretation and validation of results.
This work examines the main features of modern electronic noses and their most important applications in the environmental, and security fields. The above mentioned main components of an electronic nose (sample handling system, more advanced materials and methods for sensing, and data processing system) are described. Finally, some interesting remarks concerning the strengths and weaknesses of electronic noses in the different applications are also mentioned.
This is the first study to report the prevalence of general obesity and abdominal obesity (AO) in the adult population of Spain based on measurements of weight, height and waist circumference. The ...data are taken from the ENRICA study, a cross‐sectional study carried out between June 2008 and October 2010 in 12,883 individuals representative of the non‐institutionalized population on Spain aged 18 years and older. Anthropometry was performed under standardized conditions in the households by trained interviewers. Overweight was considered as body mass index (BMI) 25–29.9 kg m−2, and obesity as BMI ≥ 30 kg m−2. AO was defined as waist circumference >102 cm in men and >88 cm in women. The prevalence of obesity was 22.9% (24.4% in men and 21.4% in women). About 36% of adults had AO (32% of men and 39% of women). The frequency of obesity and of AO increased with age and affected, respectively, 35 and 62% of persons aged 65 and over. The frequency of obesity and AO decreased with increasing educational level. For example, 29% of women with primary education or less had obesity vs. only 11% of those with university studies. The prevalence of obesity was very high in the Canary Islands and in the south of Spain.
VALUE is an open European collaboration to intercompare downscaling approaches for climate change research, focusing on different validation aspects (marginal, temporal, extremes, spatial, ...process‐based, etc.). Here we describe the participating methods and first results from the first experiment, using “perfect” reanalysis (and reanalysis‐driven regional climate model (RCM)) predictors to assess the intrinsic performance of the methods for downscaling precipitation and temperatures over a set of 86 stations representative of the main climatic regions in Europe. This study constitutes the largest and most comprehensive to date intercomparison of statistical downscaling methods, covering the three common downscaling approaches (perfect prognosis, model output statistics—including bias correction—and weather generators) with a total of over 50 downscaling methods representative of the most common techniques.
Overall, most of the downscaling methods greatly improve (reanalysis or RCM) raw model biases and no approach or technique seems to be superior in general, because there is a large method‐to‐method variability. The main factors most influencing the results are the seasonal calibration of the methods (e.g., using a moving window) and their stochastic nature. The particular predictors used also play an important role in cases where the comparison was possible, both for the validation results and for the strength of the predictor–predictand link, indicating the local variability explained. However, the present study cannot give a conclusive assessment of the skill of the methods to simulate regional future climates, and further experiments will be soon performed in the framework of the EURO‐CORDEX initiative (where VALUE activities have merged and follow on).
Finally, research transparency and reproducibility has been a major concern and substantive steps have been taken. In particular, the necessary data to run the experiments are provided at http://www.value‐cost.eu/data and data and validation results are available from the VALUE validation portal for further investigation: http://www.value‐cost.eu/validationportal.
The largest and most comprehensive to date intercomparison of statistical downscaling methods is presented, with a total of over 50 downscaling methods representative of the most common approaches and techniques. Overall, most of the downscaling methods greatly improve raw model biases and no approach is superior in general, due to the large method‐to‐method variability. The main factors influencing the results are the seasonal calibration of the methods and their stochastic nature, for biases in the mean and variance.
The importance of the six sigma methodology in industry is growing constantly. However, there are few empirical studies that analyse the advantages of this methodology and its positive effects on ...organisational performance. The purpose of this paper is to extend understanding of the success of six sigma quality management initiatives by investigating the effects of six sigma teamwork and process management on absorptive capacity. It also seeks to understand the relation between absorptive capacity and organisational learning as two sources of sustainable competitive advantage. The information used comes from a larger study, the data for which was collected from a random sample of 237 European firms. Of these 237 organisations, 58 are six sigma organisations. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to test the hypotheses. The main findings show that six sigma teamwork and process management positively affect the development of absorptive capacity. A positive and significant relationship is also observed between absorptive capacity and organisational learning orientation. The findings of this study justify six sigma implementation in firms. This study provides us with an in-depth understanding of some structural elements that characterise the six sigma methodology, enabling us to provide an explanation for its success.
PDF
