Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due ...to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing countries. It is concluded that although many useful steps have been taken in the direction of ensuring adequate adaptation in developing countries, much work still remains to fully understand the drivers of past adaptation efforts, the need for future adaptation, and how to mainstream climate into general development policies.
Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from ...climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models. The multidisciplinary character of such risk assessments also requires that research groups and experts from different scientific disciplines combine knowledge and share model outputs. This paper describes an integrated framework and tool, the Danish Integrated Assessment System (DIAS), which has been designed to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output of the risk assessment for Odense indicates that highly detailed geographical data reduce the overall uncertainty and assist climate adaptation decision-makers in focusing on protecting those assets that are considered to be relevant in the given context. Also, using an integrated framework such as DIAS enables the relative importance of the different factors (i.e. degree of climate change, assets value, discount rate etc.) to be determined, thus influencing the overall output of the assessment.
A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event that has a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and can ...potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared to save human lives as well as to invest in adaptation options. Natural hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. Here, we summarize existing knowledge about extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with a focus on the past 200 years as well as on future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea levels, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and the implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructure, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large-scale atmospheric circulation to climate change and also concerning specific events, for example, the occurrence of marine heat waves and small-scale variability in precipitation. Suggestions for future research include the further development of high-resolution Earth system models and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to the expected impacts of climate change, changes are expected for sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase), and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding, and extreme waves), the change depends on the area and time period studied.
Abstract
Increasing renewable sources in the energy mix is essential to mitigate climate change, not least in countries where the energy demand is likely to rise over the coming decades to reduce or ...even skip durations of time where fossils dominate. For Africa, solar photovoltaic (PV) and inland wind energy, combined with hydropower, provide significant and untapped potentials, whereas trends and robustness measures need further investigation. This study aims to gain insight into distributed trends in solar PV and wind energy potentials over Africa. This study employs relevant metrics, including relative change, model agreement, robustness, bias, and absolute levels for every available model combination and two climate scenarios, with energy planning purposes in mind. The study finds that regional climate models were the primary control of spatio-temporal patterns over their driving global climate model. Solar PV potentials show more coherence between models, a lower bias and general high potentials in most African regions than wind potentials. Favourable locations for inland wind energy include mainly the regions of greater Sahara and the Horn region. For wind and solar potentials combined, scattered locations within Sahara stand out as the most favourable across scenarios and periods. The analysis of minimum energy potentials shows stable conditions despite low potentials in certain regions. The results demonstrate a potential for solar and wind power in most of the African regions and highlight why solar and wind power or synergies of energy mix should be considered for local energy planning and storage solutions.
Climate change risk assessments traditionally follow an analytical structure in which climate information is linked to impact models, and subsequently to damage models and decision-making tools. This ...structure generates a wide cascade of uncertainties that accumulate with each analytical step, consequently resulting in a wide range of risk estimates. This cascade of uncertainties can suggest that climate change risk assessments are not very useful in the context of decision-making regarding climate adaptation. However, many of the uncertainties revealed in traditionally structured climate risk assessments are not equally relevant to specific decisions, and presenting wide cascades of uncertainties can mask key decision-making parameters. In this paper, we show how the cascade of uncertainty relevant to decision-making can be reduced by applying an uncertainty decomposition approach, which, in study design, initially identifies the uncertainty cascade elements of particular relevance to the focal decision-making context. We compare the full cascade of uncertainties that emerge in a traditional risk assessment based on linked climate scenarios, impact modeling, and damage cost assessment with the uncertainty cascade generated by a detailed assessment of urban flooding risks where the focus is on key uncertainties in decision-making on climate change adaptation. A case study on flooding from extreme precipitation in the Danish city of Odense is used to decompose major sources of uncertainties in the climate modeling, the hydrological modeling, and the damage cost assessment. The decomposition approach reduces the focal range of damage cost estimates by 7–9 M EUR, which corresponds to a 20–24% reduction in the full uncertainty range without the application of the decomposition approach. Assuming that damage cost assessments can provide an indication of how much society should be willing to spend on climate adaptation, a decomposition approach as presented here could assist decision-makers in increasing the economic effectiveness when investing in protective measures.
Mitigation actions needed to achieve the ambitions of the Paris agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 °C or below 2 °C have to align with sustainable development. In the near term, this ...implies a better understanding of context-specific challenges in integrating sustainability with climate policies during the designing, planning, implementation and financing stages. Through a review of selected studies across regions, this paper draws out conclusions focussing on mitigation–sustainable development goal (SDG) trade-offs, with implications on costs and equity for different development contexts. Studies show that trade-offs depend on how the option is implemented and at what scale; mitigation options such as afforestation, biomass production and digitalisation are examples of this. Some options could also result in significant adverse environmental impacts as in the case of battery waste and raw material resources for electric vehicle (EV) or air pollution associated with compact urban development. We find the most important factors influencing equity include unequal access (e.g. urban green spaces and public transportation), high costs (e.g. EV) and financial constraints. Major knowledge gaps include (i) limited empirical evidence of SDG-related trade-offs associated with scaling up mitigation options, (ii) limited understanding of the extent to which benefits are experienced by different groups, (iii) an understanding of the extent to which local context was considered when assessing mitigation–SDG interaction, including the engagement of stakeholders and (iv) synergies and trade-offs associated with cross-sectoral policies. The paper recommends ex-post analysis of detailed and place-based cases that document how synergies and trade-offs emerged and how these were addressed.
The potential contribution of organic farming to the public goods, ‘Nature and Biodiversity’, ‘Environment’, ‘Energy and Climate’, ‘Human Health and Welfare’ and ‘Animal Health and Welfare’ in ...Denmark is guided and partly secured by the principles and specific requirements of the EU Organic Regulation. However, other factors, such as the production type, farm size, geographical location and—not the least—the management of the farm, also influence the contribution. Using the ban on synthetic pesticides and restricted use of antibiotics, including the requirements to compensate for and prevent such uses in organic farming, as examples, the positive and negative contributions of organic farming in relation to selected public goods were analysed. The contributions of organic farming to Nature and Biodiversity and Human and Animal Health and Welfare are mainly positive compared to conventional farming for all farm types, whilst the effects on Environment and Energy and Climate are mixed; i.e. some effects are positive and others are negative. The analysis revealed a need for further documentation and revision of the organic principles and specific organic requirements—in particular in relation to the public goods Energy and Climate, which at present are not addressed in the EU Organic Regulation. Moreover, some organic farming requirements and practices cause dilemmas; e.g. more space per animal and outdoor access improves Animal Health and Welfare but at the same time has negative effects on Environment, Energy Consumption and Climate Change. These dilemmas should be solved before OA may be fully attractive as an integrated policy measure supporting jointly several public goods objectives.
Damage costs from coastal flooding are high and are expected to increase further due to rising sea levels. The associated risks suggest a need for developing methodologies and models to assess damage ...costs in coastal areas as a basis for decision-making on climate change adaptation. The accuracy of damage cost estimates is critical in cost-effective decision-making on adaptation measures, reflecting climate hazards, flood levels, and associated damage costs. However, detailed models require extended work compared to simpler models due to demands on input data, including land use, damage costs, and adaptation options and costs. In the paper, varying levels of resolution, damage costs and flood models are assessed for coastal flooding risks for two Danish urban areas. Two damage cost models are used: a detailed, context-specific model using local high-resolution land use- and flood damage cost data and a less detailed model with lower-resolution land use data and damage costs based on generic European cost curves. Two flood models are used for the assessment using the detailed damage cost model based on a dynamic and a static flood approach, respectively. For the coarser model, only a static flood model is used. Significant differences are identified between the modelling approaches: The flood area varies up to a factor of ten for static floods due to the digital elevation map (DEM) model alone and a factor of 17 when changing both the DEM and using a dynamic flood. Corresponding factors for resulting damage costs are four and five, respectively.
The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The ...approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.
Least developed countries are generally regarded as particularly sensitive to climate change due to among other vulnerable locations and low adaptation capabilities. In the present study, we address ...climate change hazards in least developed countries by presenting a methodological framework, which is suitable for the estimation damage costs as a function of risk aversion, equality, income distribution and climate scenario using state-of-the-art climate model projections. As a case study, the methodology is applied to study severe storms in Cambodia based on two future climate scenarios and data on historical damages from storm events, which are used as a proxy in performing a sensitivity analysis on all input parameters. For the assumptions and parameter ranges used here, the study shows a high sensitivity to the income distribution (reflected by discount rates) and risk aversion and smaller effects from equality measures and extreme wind climate scenario. We emphasize that the assumptions on risk aversion reflecting consumption smoothing possibilities of low-income households clearly depicts that climate risks can be particularly high as a consequence of poverty and therefore recommend that context-specific vulnerabilities and equity concerns in climate risk studies should be included when making assessments for least developed countries.
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