We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process ...understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult‐to‐quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6‐3.9 K for our Baseline calculation, and remains within 2.3‐4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5‐95% ranges are 2.3‐4.7 K, bounded by 2.0‐5.7 K (although such high‐confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent, and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing‐feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.
Molecular imaging biomarkers are playing an increasingly important role in efforts to increase the probability of success of drug candidates by helping to validate novel drug targets in support of ...proof‐of‐concept testing early in the drug discovery and development process. By facilitating better and faster decision‐making, molecule and mechanism–based failures can be identified and eliminated from a research portfolio early in development thereby focusing research efforts on the best drug candidates and therapeutic hypotheses. Molecular imaging can be used to improve the cost‐effectiveness of studying unprecedented mechanisms, decrease cycle time, and improve drug pipeline quality.
Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics (2008); doi:10.1038/sj.clpt.6100467
The nuclear-encoded Krebs cycle enzymes, fumarate hydratase (FH) and succinate dehydrogenase (SDHB, -C and -D), act as tumour suppressors. Germline mutations in FH predispose individuals to ...leiomyomas and renal cell cancer (HLRCC), whereas mutations in SDH cause paragangliomas and phaeochromocytomas (HPGL). In this study, we have shown that FH-deficient cells and tumours accumulate fumarate and, to a lesser extent, succinate. SDH-deficient tumours principally accumulate succinate. In situ analyses showed that these tumours also have over-expression of hypoxia-inducible factor 1α (HIF1α), activation of HIF1αtargets (such as vascular endothelial growth factor) and high microvessel density. We found no evidence of increased reactive oxygen species in our cells. Our data provide in vivo evidence to support the hypothesis that increased succinate and/or fumarate causes stabilization of HIF1α a plausible mechanism, inhibition of HIF prolyl hydroxylases, has previously been suggested by in vitro studies. The basic mechanism of tumorigenesis in HPGL and HLRCC is likely to be pseudo-hypoxic drive, just as it is in von Hippel–Lindau syndrome.
Much has been written about the measurement of socio-economic position (SEP) in high-income countries (HIC). Less has been written for an epidemiology, health systems and public health audience about ...the measurement of SEP in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The social stratification processes in many LMIC-and therefore the appropriate measurement tools-differ considerably from those in HIC. Many measures of SEP have been utilized in epidemiological studies; the aspects of SEP captured by these measures and the pathways through which they may affect health are likely to be slightly different but overlapping. No single measure of SEP will be ideal for all studies and contexts; the strengths and limitations of a given indicator are likely to vary according to the specific research question. Understanding the general properties of different indicators, however, is essential for all those involved in the design or interpretation of epidemiological studies. In this article, we describe the measures of SEP used in LMIC. We concentrate on measures of individual or household-level SEP rather than area-based or ecological measures such as gross domestic product. We describe each indicator in terms of its theoretical basis, interpretation, measurement, strengths and limitations. We also provide brief comparisons between LMIC and HIC for each measure.
In stepped‐wedge trials (SWTs), the intervention is rolled out in a random order over more than 1 time‐period. SWTs are often analysed using mixed‐effects models that require strong assumptions and ...may be inappropriate when the number of clusters is small.
We propose a non‐parametric within‐period method to analyse SWTs. This method estimates the intervention effect by comparing intervention and control conditions in a given period using cluster‐level data corresponding to exposure. The within‐period intervention effects are combined with an inverse‐variance‐weighted average, and permutation tests are used. We present an example and, using simulated data, compared the method to (1) a parametric cluster‐level within‐period method, (2) the most commonly used mixed‐effects model, and (3) a more flexible mixed‐effects model. We simulated scenarios where period effects were common to all clusters, and when they varied according to a distribution informed by routinely collected health data.
The non‐parametric within‐period method provided unbiased intervention effect estimates with correct confidence‐interval coverage for all scenarios. The parametric within‐period method produced confidence intervals with low coverage for most scenarios. The mixed‐effects models' confidence intervals had low coverage when period effects varied between clusters but had greater power than the non‐parametric within‐period method when period effects were common to all clusters.
The non‐parametric within‐period method is a robust method for analysing SWT. The method could be used by trial statisticians who want to emphasise that the SWT is a randomised trial, in the common position of being uncertain about whether data will meet the assumptions necessary for mixed‐effect models.
Weight gain is commonly observed during and after breast cancer treatment and is associated with poorer survival outcomes, particularly in women with oestrogen receptor-positive (ER +) disease. The ...aim of this study was to co-design (with patients) a programme of tailored, personalised support (intervention), including high-quality support materials, to help female breast cancer patients (BCPs) with ER + disease to develop the skills and confidence needed for sustainable weight loss. METHODS: ER + BCPs were recruited from two UK National Health Service (NHS) Trusts. The selection criteria included (i) recent experience of breast cancer treatment (within 36 months of completing primary treatment); (ii) participation in a recent focus group study investigating weight management perceptions and experiences; (iii) willingness to share experiences and contribute to discussions on the support structures needed for sustainable dietary and physical activity behaviour change. Co-design workshops included presentations and interactive activities and were facilitated by an experienced co-design researcher (HH), assisted by other members of the research team (KP, SW and JS).
Two groups of BCPs from the North of England (N = 4) and South Yorkshire (N = 5) participated in a two-stage co-design process. The stage 1 and stage 2 co-design workshops were held two weeks apart and took place between Jan-March 2019, with each workshop being approximately 2 h in duration. Guided by the Behaviour Change Wheel, a theoretically-informed weight management intervention was developed on the basis of co-designed strategies to overcome physical and emotional barriers to dietary and physical activity behaviour change. BCPs were instrumental in designing all key features of the intervention, in terms of Capability (e.g., evidence-based information, peer-support and shared experiences), Opportunity (e.g., flexible approach to weight management based on core principles) and Motivation (e.g., appropriate use of goal-setting and high-quality resources, including motivational factsheets) for behaviour change.
This co-design approach enabled the development of a theoretically-informed intervention with a content, structure and delivery model that has the potential to address the weight management challenges faced by BCPs diagnosed with ER + disease. Future research is required to evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention for eliciting clinically-important and sustainable weight loss in this population.
The transfer of novel genetic material into the genomes of bacterial viruses (phages) has been widely documented in several host-phage systems. Bacterial genes are incorporated into the phage genome ...and, if retained, subsequently evolve within them. The expression of these phage genes can subvert or bolster bacterial processes, including altering bacterial pathogenicity. The phage phiCDHM1 infects Clostridium difficile, a pathogenic bacterium that causes nosocomial infections and is associated with antibiotic treatment. Genome sequencing and annotation of phiCDHM1 shows that despite being closely related to other C. difficile myoviruses, it has several genes that have not been previously reported in any phage genomes. Notably, these include three homologs of bacterial genes from the accessory gene regulator (agr) quorum sensing (QS) system. These are; a pre-peptide (AgrD) of an autoinducing peptide (AIP), an enzyme which processes the pre-peptide (AgrB) and a histidine kinase (AgrC) that detects the AIP to activate a response regulator. Phylogenetic analysis of the phage and C. difficile agr genes revealed that there are three types of agr loci in this species. We propose that the phage genes belonging to a third type, agr3, and have been horizontally transferred from the host. AgrB and AgrC are transcribed during the infection of two different strains. In addition, the phage agrC appears not to be confined to the phiCDHM1 genome as it was detected in genetically distinct C. difficile strains. The discovery of QS gene homologs in a phage genome presents a novel way in which phages could influence their bacterial hosts, or neighbouring bacterial populations. This is the first time that these QS genes have been reported in a phage genome and their distribution both in C. difficile and phage genomes suggests that the agr3 locus undergoes horizontal gene transfer within this species.
The Ketogenic diet (KD) is an effective treatment with regards to treating pharmaco‐resistant epilepsy. However, there are difficulties around compliance and tolerability. Consequently, there is a ...need for refined/simpler formulations that could replicate the efficacy of the KD. One of the proposed hypotheses is that the KD increases cellular mitochondrial content which results in elevation of the seizure threshold. Here, we have focussed on the medium‐chain triglyceride form of the diet and the observation that plasma octanoic acid (C8) and decanoic acid (C10) levels are elevated in patients on the medium‐chain triglyceride KD. Using a neuronal cell line (SH‐SY5Y), we demonstrated that 250‐μM C10, but not C8, caused, over a 6‐day period, a marked increase in the mitochondrial enzyme, citrate synthase along with complex I activity and catalase activity. Increased mitochondrial number was also indicated by electron microscopy. C10 is a reported peroxisome proliferator activator receptor γ agonist, and the use of a peroxisome proliferator activator receptor γ antagonist was shown to prevent the C10‐mediated increase in mitochondrial content and catalase. C10 may mimic the mitochondrial proliferation associated with the KD and raises the possibility that formulations based on this fatty acid could replace a more complex diet.
We propose that decanoic acid (C10) results in increased mitochondrial number. Our data suggest that this may occur via the activation of the PPARγ receptor and its target genes involved in mitochondrial biogenesis. This finding could be of significant benefit to epilepsy patients who are currently on a strict ketogenic diet. Evidence that C10 on its own can modulate mitochondrial number raises the possibility that a simplified and less stringent C10‐based diet could be developed.
We propose that decanoic acid (C10) results in increased mitochondrial number. Our data suggest that this may occur via the activation of the PPARγ receptor and its target genes involved in mitochondrial biogenesis. This finding could be of significant benefit to epilepsy patients who are currently on a strict ketogenic diet. Evidence that C10 on its own can modulate mitochondrial number raises the possibility that a simplified and less stringent C10‐based diet could be developed.
The microbiome dysbiosis caused by antibiotic treatment has been associated with both susceptibility to and relapse of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). Bacteriophage (phage) therapy offers ...target specificity and dose amplification in situ, but few studies have focused on its use in CDI treatment. This mainly reflects the lack of strictly virulent phages that target this pathogen. While it is widely accepted that temperate phages are unsuitable for therapeutic purposes due to their transduction potential, analysis of seven C. difficile phages confirmed that this impact could be curtailed by the application of multiple phage types. Here, host range analysis of six myoviruses and one siphovirus was conducted on 80 strains representing 21 major epidemic and clinically severe ribotypes. The phages had complementary coverage, lysing 18 and 62 of the ribotypes and strains tested, respectively. Single-phage treatments of ribotype 076, 014/020, and 027 strains showed an initial reduction in the bacterial load followed by the emergence of phage-resistant colonies. However, these colonies remained susceptible to infection with an unrelated phage. In contrast, specific phage combinations caused the complete lysis of C. difficile in vitro and prevented the appearance of resistant/lysogenic clones. Using a hamster model, the oral delivery of optimized phage combinations resulted in reduced C. difficile colonization at 36 h postinfection. Interestingly, free phages were recovered from the bowel at this time. In a challenge model of the disease, phage treatment delayed the onset of symptoms by 33 h compared to the time of onset of symptoms in untreated animals. These data demonstrate the therapeutic potential of phage combinations to treat CDI.
Background Weight gain is commonly observed during and after breast cancer treatment and is associated with poorer survival outcomes, notably in women with oestrogen-receptor positive disease. The ...aim of this qualitative study was to investigate the experiences and perceptions of oestrogen-receptor positive (ER +) female breast cancer patients (BCPs) regarding weight management behaviours during and after treatment. Secondly, to gain insight into the experiences of healthcare professionals (HCPs) regarding the provision of weight management advice to patients undergoing treatment. Methods Four focus groups involving 16 BCPs having a median (range) age of 51 (35-70 y) and three focus groups involving 21 HCPs aged 46 (29-62) were held at a university campus, local cancer support centre or clinical site. Data were analysed using Framework analysis. Results Four overarching themes (and 10 subthemes) were identified: (1) Treatment; (2) Support for lifestyle behaviour change; (3) Information availability for BCPs; (4) Knowledge of current evidence amongst HCPs. The physical and psychological consequences of treatment influenced motivation for weight management amongst BCPs. Social support for health promoting behaviours was viewed as important but was conflicting, requiring context-specific considerations. BCPs said they would have welcomed access to credible information (guided by HCPs) about the potential detrimental health effects of excess body weight and weight gain, together with advice on weight management via healthy eating and physical activity. HCPs felt that they had insufficient knowledge of public health dietary and physical activity recommendations or evidence-based interventions to confidently offer such advice. HCPs expressed concern that raising weight management issues would exacerbate distress or invoke feelings of guilt amongst BCPs, and cited time pressures on patient consultations as additional barriers to providing weight management support. Conclusion The study yielded novel insights into factors influencing weight management behaviours amongst overweight ER + BCPs. The results suggest that evidence-based information and support, which addresses key physical and psychological challenges to physical activity and dietary behaviours, offers the best route to sustainable weight management in this population. Keywords: Breast Cancer, Hormone-positive, Weight management, Barriers and facilitators
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