Abstract
Public health preparedness for coronavirus (CoV) disease 2019 (COVID-19) is challenging in the absence of setting-specific epidemiological data. Here we describe the epidemiology of seasonal ...CoVs (sCoVs) and other cocirculating viruses in the West of Scotland, United Kingdom. We analyzed routine diagnostic data for >70 000 episodes of respiratory illness tested molecularly for multiple respiratory viruses between 2005 and 2017. Statistical associations with patient age and sex differed between CoV-229E, CoV-OC43, and CoV-NL63. Furthermore, the timing and magnitude of sCoV outbreaks did not occur concurrently, and coinfections were not reported. With respect to other cocirculating respiratory viruses, we found evidence of positive, rather than negative, interactions with sCoVs. These findings highlight the importance of considering cocirculating viruses in the differential diagnosis of COVID-19. Further work is needed to establish the occurrence/degree of cross-protective immunity conferred across sCoVs and with COVID-19, as well as the role of viral coinfection in COVID-19 disease severity.
Our study provides a comprehensive evaluation of in whom, and when, seasonal coronavirus infections occur. We compare infection patterns across coronavirus types, evaluate evidence of interactions with other respiratory viruses, and discuss implications for newly emerged coronavirus disease 2019.
Since it was first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and ...regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95% CI, 2.39-4.13), indicating that 58-76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing. We also estimate a case ascertainment rate in Wuhan of 5.0% (95% CI, 3.6-7.4). The true size of the epidemic may be significantly greater than the published case counts suggest, with our model estimating 21 022 (prediction interval, 11 090-33 490) total infections in Wuhan between 1 and 22 January. We discuss our findings in the light of more recent information. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
Healthcare workers have had the longest and most direct exposure to COVID-19 and consequently may suffer from poor mental health. We conducted one of the first repeated multi-country analysis of the ...mental wellbeing of medical doctors (n = 5,275) at two timepoints during the COVID-19 pandemic (June 2020 and November/December 2020) to understand the prevalence of anxiety and depression, as well as associated risk factors. Rates of anxiety and depression were highest in Italy (24.6% and 20.1%, June 2020), second highest in Catalonia (15.9% and 17.4%, June 2020), and lowest in the UK (11.7% and 13.7%, June 2020). Across all countries, higher risk of anxiety and depression symptoms were found among women, individuals below 60 years old, those feeling vulnerable/exposed at work, and those reporting normal/below-normal health. We did not find systematic differences in mental health measures between the two rounds of data collection, hence we cannot discard that the mental health repercussions of the pandemic are persistent.
Immunocompromised patients may be at higher risk of mortality if hospitalised with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) compared with immunocompetent patients. However, previous studies have been ...contradictory. We aimed to determine whether immunocompromised patients were at greater risk of in-hospital death and how this risk changed over the pandemic.
We included patients > = 19 years with symptomatic community-acquired COVID-19 recruited to the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK prospective cohort study. We defined immunocompromise as immunosuppressant medication preadmission, cancer treatment, organ transplant, HIV, or congenital immunodeficiency. We used logistic regression to compare the risk of death in both groups, adjusting for age, sex, deprivation, ethnicity, vaccination, and comorbidities. We used Bayesian logistic regression to explore mortality over time. Between 17 January 2020 and 28 February 2022, we recruited 156,552 eligible patients, of whom 21,954 (14%) were immunocompromised. In total, 29% (n = 6,499) of immunocompromised and 21% (n = 28,608) of immunocompetent patients died in hospital. The odds of in-hospital mortality were elevated for immunocompromised patients (adjusted OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.39, 1.50, p < 0.001). Not all immunocompromising conditions had the same risk, for example, patients on active cancer treatment were less likely to have their care escalated to intensive care (adjusted OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.7, 0.85, p < 0.001) or ventilation (adjusted OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.56, 0.76, p < 0.001). However, cancer patients were more likely to die (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.87, 2.15, p < 0.001). Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, comorbidities, and vaccination status. As the pandemic progressed, in-hospital mortality reduced more slowly for immunocompromised patients than for immunocompetent patients. This was particularly evident with increasing age: the probability of the reduction in hospital mortality being less for immunocompromised patients aged 50 to 69 years was 88% for men and 83% for women, and for those >80 years was 99% for men and 98% for women. The study is limited by a lack of detailed drug data prior to admission, including steroid doses, meaning that we may have incorrectly categorised some immunocompromised patients as immunocompetent.
Immunocompromised patients remain at elevated risk of death from COVID-19. Targeted measures such as additional vaccine doses, monoclonal antibodies, and nonpharmaceutical preventive interventions should be continually encouraged for this patient group.
ISRCTN 66726260.
This study sought to establish the long-term effects of Covid-19 following hospitalisation.
327 hospitalised participants, with SARS-CoV-2 infection were recruited into a prospective multicentre ...cohort study at least 3 months post-discharge. The primary outcome was self-reported recovery at least ninety days after initial Covid-19 symptom onset. Secondary outcomes included new symptoms, disability (Washington group short scale), breathlessness (MRC Dyspnoea scale) and quality of life (EQ5D-5L).
55% of participants reported not feeling fully recovered. 93% reported persistent symptoms, with fatigue the most common (83%), followed by breathlessness (54%). 47% reported an increase in MRC dyspnoea scale of at least one grade. New or worse disability was reported by 24% of participants. The EQ5D-5L summary index was significantly worse following acute illness (median difference 0.1 points on a scale of 0 to 1, IQR: -0.2 to 0.0). Females under the age of 50 years were five times less likely to report feeling recovered (adjusted OR 5.09, 95% CI 1.64 to 15.74), were more likely to have greater disability (adjusted OR 4.22, 95% CI 1.12 to 15.94), twice as likely to report worse fatigue (adjusted OR 2.06, 95% CI 0.81 to 3.31) and seven times more likely to become more breathless (adjusted OR 7.15, 95% CI 2.24 to 22.83) than men of the same age.
Survivors of Covid-19 experienced long-term symptoms, new disability, increased breathlessness, and reduced quality of life. These findings were present in young, previously healthy working age adults, and were most common in younger females.
National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Efficient and effective viral detection methodologies are a critical piece in the global response to COVID-19, with PCR-based nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab testing serving as the current gold ...standard. With over 100 million confirmed cases globally, the supply chains supporting these PCR testing efforts are under a tremendous amount of stress, driving the need for innovative and accurate diagnostic solutions. Herein, the utility of a direct-to-PCR method of SARS-CoV-2 detection grounded in mechanical homogenization is examined for reducing resources needed for testing while maintaining a comparable sensitivity to the current gold standard workflow of nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab testing. In a head-to-head comparison of 30 patient samples, this initial clinical validation study of the proposed homogenization-based workflow demonstrated significant agreeability with the current extraction-based method utilized while cutting the total resources needed in half.
IntroductionVery little is known about possible clinical sequelae that may persist after resolution of acute COVID-19. A recent longitudinal cohort from Italy including 143 patients followed up after ...hospitalisation with COVID-19 reported that 87% had at least one ongoing symptom at 60-day follow-up. Early indications suggest that patients with COVID-19 may need even more psychological support than typical intensive care unit patients. The assessment of risk factors for longer term consequences requires a longitudinal study linked to data on pre-existing conditions and care received during the acute phase of illness. The primary aim of this study is to characterise physical and psychosocial sequelae in patients post-COVID-19 hospital discharge.Methods and analysisThis is an international open-access prospective, observational multisite study. This protocol is linked with the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) and the WHO’s Clinical Characterisation Protocol, which includes patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 during hospitalisation. This protocol will follow-up a subset of patients with confirmed COVID-19 using standardised surveys to measure longer term physical and psychosocial sequelae. The data will be linked with the acute phase data. Statistical analyses will be undertaken to characterise groups most likely to be affected by sequelae of COVID-19. The open-access follow-up survey can be used as a data collection tool by other follow-up studies, to facilitate data harmonisation and to identify subsets of patients for further in-depth follow-up. The outcomes of this study will inform strategies to prevent long-term consequences; inform clinical management, interventional studies, rehabilitation and public health management to reduce overall morbidity; and improve long-term outcomes of COVID-19.Ethics and disseminationThe protocol and survey are open access to enable low-resourced sites to join the study to facilitate global standardised, longitudinal data collection. Ethical approval has been given by sites in Colombia, Ghana, Italy, Norway, Russia, the UK and South Africa. New sites are welcome to join this collaborative study at any time. Sites interested in adopting the protocol as it is or in an adapted version are responsible for ensuring that local sponsorship and ethical approvals in place as appropriate. The tools are available on the ISARIC website (www.isaric.org).Protocol registration numberosf.io/c5rw3/Protocol version3 August 2020EuroQol ID37035.
•This was a longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey in an urban & rural cohort in Malawi.•Post-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was very high (rural: 89%; urban: 94%).•Most SARS-CoV-2 infections were ...subclinical; few required healthcare attendance.•Seroconversion risk varied by location & age across the successive infection waves.•Hybrid immunity was associated with higher seroprevalence and antibody titers.
This study aimed to investigate the changing SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and associated health and sociodemographic factors in Malawi between February 2021 and April 2022.
In total, four 3-monthly serosurveys were conducted within a longitudinal population-based cohort in rural Karonga District and urban Lilongwe, testing for SARS-CoV-2 S1 immunoglobulin (Ig)G antibodies using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Population seroprevalence was estimated in all and unvaccinated participants. Bayesian mixed-effects logistic models estimated the odds of seropositivity in the first survey, and of seroconversion between surveys, adjusting for age, sex, occupation, location, and assay sensitivity/specificity.
Of the 2005 participants (Karonga, n = 1005; Lilongwe, n = 1000), 55.8% were female and median age was 22.7 years. Between Surveys (SVY) 1 and 4, population-weighted SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased from 26.3% to 89.2% and 46.4% to 93.9% in Karonga and Lilongwe, respectively. At SVY4, seroprevalence did not differ by COVID-19 vaccination status in adults, except for those aged 30+ years in Karonga (unvaccinated: 87.4%, 95% credible interval 79.3-93.0%; two doses: 98.1%, 94.8-99.5%). Location and age were associated with seroconversion risk. Individuals with hybrid immunity had higher SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and antibody titers, than those infected.
High SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence combined with low morbidity and mortality indicate that universal vaccination is unnecessary at this stage of the pandemic, supporting change in national policy to target at-risk groups.
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