Climate change vulnerability assessment of species Foden, Wendy B.; Young, Bruce E.; Akçakaya, H. Resit ...
Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change,
January/February 2019, Volume:
10, Issue:
1
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to conserve them. The last three decades have seen exponential growth in the number of studies ...evaluating how, how much, why, when, and where species will be impacted by climate change. We provide an overview of the rapidly developing field of climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) and describe key concepts, terms, steps and considerations. We stress the importance of identifying the full range of pressures, impacts and their associated mechanisms that species face and using this as a basis for selecting the appropriate assessment approaches for quantifying vulnerability. We outline four CCVA assessment approaches, namely trait‐based, correlative, mechanistic and combined approaches and discuss their use. Since any assessment can deliver unreliable or even misleading results when incorrect data and parameters are applied, we discuss finding, selecting, and applying input data and provide examples of open‐access resources. Because rare, small‐range, and declining‐range species are often of particular conservation concern while also posing significant challenges for CCVA, we describe alternative ways to assess them. We also describe how CCVAs can be used to inform IUCN Red List assessments of extinction risk. Finally, we suggest future directions in this field and propose areas where research efforts may be particularly valuable.
This article is categorized under:
Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Extinction Risk
Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is becoming a prerequisite for conservation planning, but choosing approaches, methods and data can be challenging. Key to informing such choices is consideration of the full range of climate change pressures and their likely mechanisms of impact on individuals, subpopulations and species. Navigate a sound path through do's and don'ts, and explore resources and future perspectives in this exciting field.
Cities are dependent on their upstream watersheds for storage and gradual release of water into river systems. These watersheds act as important flood mitigation infrastructure, providing an ...essential ecosystem service. In this paper we use metrics from the WaterWorld model to examine the flood management-relevant natural infrastructure of the upstream watersheds of selected global cities. These metrics enable the characterisation of different types, magnitudes and geographical distributions of potential natural flood storage. The storages are categorised as either green (forest canopy, wetland and soil) or blue (water body and floodplain) storages and the proportion of green to blue indicates how different city upstream basin contexts provide different types and levels of storage which may buffer flood risk. We apply the WaterWorld method for examining flood risk as the ratio of accumulated modelled annual runoff volume to accumulated available green and blue water storage capacity. The aim of these metrics is to highlight areas where there is more runoff than storage capacity and thus where the maintenance or restoration of further natural infrastructure (such as canopy cover, wetlands and soil) could aid in storing more water and thus better alleviate flood risks. Such information is needed by urban planners, city authorities and governments to help prepare cities for climate change impacts.
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•Natural water storage metrics are applied to upstream basins of five global cities.•Strong reliance on forest, soil and wetland storage is found in four basins.•Little of this storage is protected making it vulnerable to land-use modification.•The basins show different patterns of flood risk magnitude and spatial distribution.
The natural world has multiple, sometimes conflicting, sometimes synergistic, values to society when viewed through the lens of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Spatial mapping of nature's ...contributions to the SDGs has the potential to support the implementation of SDG strategies through sustainable land management and conservation of ecosystem services. Such mapping requires a range of spatial data. This paper examines the use of remote sensing and spatial ecosystem service modelling to examine nature's contribution to targets under SDG 6, also highlighting synergies with other key SDGs and trade-offs with agriculture.
We use a wide range of remotely sensed and globally available datasets (for land cover, climate, soil, population, agriculture) alongside the existing and widely used spatial ecosystem services assessment tool, Co$tingNature. With these we identify priority areas for sustainable management to realise targets under SDG 6 (water) at the country scale for Madagascar and at the basin scale for the Volta basin, though the application developed can be applied to any country or major basin in the world. Within this SDG 6 priority areas footprint, we assess the synergies and trade-offs provided by this land for SDG 15 (biodiversity) and SDG 13 (climate action) as well as SDG 2 (zero hunger).
Results highlight the co-benefits of sustainably managing nature's contribution to SDG 6, such as the protection of forest cover (for SDG target 15.2), carbon storage as a contribution to the Paris climate agreement and nationally determined contributions (SDG 13) and biodiversity (for SDG target 15.5) but also trade-offs with the zero hunger goal (for SDG 2). Such analyses allow for better understanding of land management requirements for realising multiple SDGs through protection and restoration of green infrastructure. We provide a freely available tool, within the Co$tingNature platform, based on a variety of remotely sensed products, that can be used by SDG practitioners to carry out similar analyses and inform decision-making at national or sub-national levels globally.
•Existing EO datasets can underpin spatial analyses of nature's contributions to SDGs.•Such analyses indicate within and between country variability in nature's contribution.•A spatial prioritisation suggests the highest priority areas for investment.•Ubiquitous EO data enable globally consistent and geographically comprehensive analyses.•Challenges remain in using EO data for multi-factor models like these.
Climate change is increasingly driving fundamental shifts in ecosystems, land use, and human livelihoods. Because of these rapid shifts, some conventional adaptation strategies may have limited ...success in reducing the impact of climate change. In some circumstances, there will be a need for considering transformative changes as part of adaptation strategies that can provide long-term benefits and address the root causes of vulnerability. However, to date, there is limited understanding of how societies respond to, or drive, transformative changes in social-ecological systems due to climate change impact. We reviewed 60 empirical case studies of shifts in trajectories of social-ecological systems in tropical and subtropical countries that were driven by climate change to identify how societies responded to these shifts and the extent to which societies used transformative adaptation as part of this response. In the case studies, we identified three types of shifts driven by climate change depending on whether the shift occurred in the ecological, social, or social-ecological system. Climate change shifted the trajectories of social-ecological systems by altering the feedback loops connecting soil, water, or vegetation conditions with people's livelihoods and well-being. In response to these shifts, people adjusted land use policies and practices, but only one-quarter of the reported adaptation actions included transformative adaptation. A more holistic understanding of how climate change modifies interactions in social-ecological systems and leads to shifts in system trajectories could help identify appropriate adaptation responses, including transformative adaptation, that provide long-term and sustainable benefits.
The loss of forest is a leading cause of species extinction, and reforestation is 1 of 2 established interventions for reversing this loss. However, the role of reforestation for biodiversity ...conservation remains debated, and lacking is an assessment of the potential contribution that reforestation could make to biodiversity conservation globally. We conducted a spatial analysis of overlap between 1,550 forest‐obligate threatened species’ ranges and land that could be reforested after accounting for socioeconomic and ecological constraints. Reforestation on at least 43% (∼369 million ha) of reforestable area was predicted to potentially benefit threatened vertebrates. This is approximately 15% of the total area where threatened vertebrates occur. The greatest opportunities for conserving threatened vertebrate species are in the tropics, particularly Brazil and Indonesia. Although reforestation is not a substitute for forest conservation, and most of the area containing threatened vertebrates remains forested, our results highlight the need for global conservation strategies to recognize the potentially significant contribution that reforestation could make to biodiversity conservation. If implemented, reforestation of ∼369 million ha would also contribute substantially to climate‐change mitigation, offering a way to achieve multiple sustainability commitments at once. Countries must now work to overcome key barriers (e.g., unclear revenue streams, high transaction costs) to investment in reforestation.
Reforestación Mundial y Conservación de la Biodiversidad
Resumen
La pérdida de los bosques es una de las causas principales de la extinción de especies y la reforestación es una de las dos intervenciones establecidas para revertir esta pérdida. Sin embargo, el papel de la reforestación en la conservación de la biodiversidad todavía se debate, además de que hay una falta de evaluación de la contribución potencial que podría dar la reforestación a la conservación mundial de la biodiversidad. Realizamos un análisis espacial del traslape de la distribución de 1,550 especies obligadas de bosque que se encuentran amenazadas y el suelo que podría utilizarse para reforestar después de considerar las restricciones socioeconómicas y ecológicas. El análisis predijo que la reforestación en al menos el 43% (∼ 369 millones de ha) del área que se puede reforestar beneficiará potencialmente a los vertebrados amenazados. Esto es aproximadamente el 15% del área total en donde están presentes los vertebrados amenazados. Las oportunidades más grandes para conservar a las especies amenazadas de vertebrados se encuentran en los trópicos, particularmente en Brasil y en Indonesia. Aunque la reforestación no es un sustituto para la conservación de los bosques, y aunque la mayoría del área que contiene vertebrados amenazados todavía tiene flora original, nuestros resultados resaltan la necesidad de tener estrategias mundiales de conservación para reconocer la contribución potencialmente significativa que podría dar la reforestación a la conservación de la biodiversidad. Si se implementa, la reforestación de ∼369 millones de ha también contribuiría significativamente a la mitigación del cambio climático, ofreciendo así una manera de cumplir varios compromisos de sustentabilidad a la vez. Los países ahora deben trabajar para sobreponerse a las barreras importantes (p. ej.: flujos inciertos de ingresos, costos elevados de las transacciones) que enfrentan las inversiones para la reforestación.
摘要
森林丧失是物种灭绝的主要原因, 而造林则是已确立的扭转森林丧失的两种干预措施之一。然而, 造林对生物多样性保护的作用仍存在争议, 目前尚缺乏造林对全球生物多样性保护潜在贡献的评估。我们考虑了社会经济和生态制约因素, 对 1550 个森林特有濒危物种的分布范围内可以造林的土地进行了空间重叠分析。据预测, 在至少 43% (约 3.69 亿公顷) 的可造林土地上实施造林, 将有助于受威胁脊椎动物的保护, 大约占受威胁脊椎动物分布总面积的15%。保护濒危脊椎动物的最大机会在热带地区, 特别是巴西和印度尼西亚。虽然再造林不能代替森林保护, 而且受威胁脊椎动物大部分栖息地仍是森林, 但我们的结果强调了认识到造林对生物多样性保护潜在重要贡献的全球保护战略的必要性。如果实施造林计划, 约 3.69 亿公顷的再造林还将大大有助于缓解气候变化, 为同时实现多项可持续承诺提供了途径。各国现在应努力克服投资造林的主要障碍 (如不明确的收入来源、高昂的交易成本) 。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】
Article impact statement: Global policies must recognize the potentially significant contribution reforestation could make to biodiversity conservation.
Helping the world's coastal communities adapt to climate change impacts requires evaluating the vulnerability of coastal communities and assessing adaptation options. This includes understanding the ...potential for 'natural' infrastructure (ecosystems and the biodiversity that underpins them) to reduce communities' vulnerability, alongside more traditional 'hard' infrastructure approaches. Here we present a spatially explicit global evaluation of the vulnerability of coastal-dwelling human populations to key climate change exposures and explore the potential for coastal ecosystems to help people adapt to climate change (ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA)). We find that mangroves and coral reefs are particularly well situated to help people cope with current weather extremes, a function that will only increase in importance as people adapt to climate change now and in coming decades. We find that around 30.9 million people living within 2km of the coast are highly vulnerable to tropical storms and sea-level rise (SLR). Mangroves and coral reefs overlap these threats to at least 5.3 and 3.4 million people, respectively, with substantial potential to dissipate storm surges and improve resilience against SLR effects. Significant co-benefits from mangroves also accrue, with 896 million metric tons of carbon stored in their soils and above- and below-ground biomass. Our framework offers a tool for prioritizing 'hotspots' of coastal EbA potential for further, national and local analyses to quantify risk reduction and, thereby, guide investment in coastal ecosystems to help people adapt to climate change. In doing so, it underscores the global role that conserving and restoring ecosystems can play in protecting human lives and livelihoods, as well as biodiversity, in the face of climate change.
International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most ...effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.
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