Evidence is presented of a reduction in relative humidity over low‐latitude and midlatitude land areas over a period of about 10 years leading up to 2008, based on monthly anomalies in surface air ...temperature and humidity from comprehensive European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses (ERA‐40 and ERA‐Interim) and from Climatic Research Unit and Hadley Centre analyses of monthly station temperature data (CRUTEM3) and synoptic humidity observations (HadCRUH). The data sets agree well for both temperature and humidity variations for periods and places of overlap, although the average warming over land is larger for the fully sampled ERA data than for the spatially and temporally incomplete CRUTEM3 data. Near‐surface specific humidity varies similarly over land and sea, suggesting that the recent reduction in relative humidity over land may be due to limited moisture supply from the oceans, where evaporation has been limited by sea surface temperatures that have not risen in concert with temperatures over land. Continental precipitation from the reanalyses is compared with a new gauge‐based Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) data set, with the combined gauge and satellite products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), and with CPC's independent gauge analysis of precipitation over land (PREC/L). The reanalyses agree best with the new GPCC and latest GPCP data sets, with ERA‐Interim significantly better than ERA‐40 at capturing monthly variability. Shifts over time in the differences among the precipitation data sets make it difficult to assess their longer‐term variations and any link with longer‐term variations in humidity.
This study is an extensive revision of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) land station temperature database that has been used to produce a grid‐box data set of 5° latitude × 5° longitude temperature ...anomalies. The new database (CRUTEM4) comprises 5583 station records of which 4842 have enough data for the 1961–1990 period to calculate or estimate the average temperatures for this period. Many station records have had their data replaced by newly homogenized series that have been produced by a number of studies, particularly from National Meteorological Services (NMSs). Hemispheric temperature averages for land areas developed with the new CRUTEM4 data set differ slightly from their CRUTEM3 equivalent. The inclusion of much additional data from the Arctic (particularly the Russian Arctic) has led to estimates for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) being warmer by about 0.1°C for the years since 2001. The NH/Southern Hemisphere (SH) warms by 1.12°C/0.84°C over the period 1901–2010. The robustness of the hemispheric averages is assessed by producing five different analyses, each including a different subset of 20% of the station time series and by omitting some large countries. CRUTEM4 is also compared with hemispheric averages produced by reanalyses undertaken by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA‐40 (1958–2001) and ERA‐Interim (1979–2010) data sets. For the NH, agreement is good back to 1958 and excellent from 1979 at monthly, annual, and decadal time scales. For the SH, agreement is poorer, but if the area is restricted to the SH north of 60°S, the agreement is dramatically improved from the mid‐1970s.
Key Points
Revised and updated version of a data set
Series robust to numerous choices
Series agrees with reanalysis output since 1970s
Cancer diagnostics and surgery have been disrupted by the response of health care services to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Progression of cancers during delay will impact on ...patients' long-term survival.
We generated per-day hazard ratios of cancer progression from observational studies and applied these to age-specific, stage-specific cancer survival for England 2013–2017. We modelled per-patient delay of 3 and 6 months and periods of disruption of 1 and 2 years. Using health care resource costing, we contextualise attributable lives saved and life-years gained (LYGs) from cancer surgery to equivalent volumes of COVID-19 hospitalisations.
Per year, 94 912 resections for major cancers result in 80 406 long-term survivors and 1 717 051 LYGs. Per-patient delay of 3/6 months would cause attributable death of 4755/10 760 of these individuals with loss of 92 214/208 275 life-years, respectively. For cancer surgery, average LYGs per patient are 18.1 under standard conditions and 17.1/15.9 with a delay of 3/6 months (an average loss of 0.97/2.19 LYGs per patient), respectively. Taking into account health care resource units (HCRUs), surgery results on average per patient in 2.25 resource-adjusted life-years gained (RALYGs) under standard conditions and 2.12/1.97 RALYGs following delay of 3/6 months. For 94 912 hospital COVID-19 admissions, there are 482 022 LYGs requiring 1 052 949 HCRUs. Hospitalisation of community-acquired COVID-19 patients yields on average per patient 5.08 LYG and 0.46 RALYGs.
Modest delays in surgery for cancer incur significant impact on survival. Delay of 3/6 months in surgery for incident cancers would mitigate 19%/43% of LYGs, respectively, by hospitalisation of an equivalent volume of admissions for community-acquired COVID-19. This rises to 26%/59%, respectively, when considering RALYGs. To avoid a downstream public health crisis of avoidable cancer deaths, cancer diagnostic and surgical pathways must be maintained at normal throughput, with rapid attention to any backlog already accrued.
•Lockdown and re-deployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic have caused significant disruption to cancer diagnosis and management.•A 3-month delay to surgery across all stage 1–3 cancers is estimated to cause >4700 attributable deaths per year in England.•The impact on life-years lost of 3–6-month delay to surgery for stage 1–3 disease varies widely between tumour types.•Strategic prioritisation of patients for diagnostics and surgery has potential to mitigate deaths attributable to delays.•The resource-adjusted benefit in avoiding delay in cancer management compares favourably with admission for COVID-19 infection.
The unprecedented availability of 6-hourly data from a multi-model GCM ensemble in the CMIP5 data archive presents the new opportunity to dynamically downscale multiple GCMs to develop ...high-resolution climate projections relevant to detailed assessment of climate vulnerability and climate change impacts. This enables the development of high resolution projections derived from the same set of models that are used to characterise the range of future climate changes at the global and large-scale, and as assessed in the IPCC AR5. However, the technical and human resource required to dynamically-downscale the full CMIP5 ensemble are significant and not necessary if the aim is to develop scenarios covering a representative range of future climate conditions relevant to a climate change risk assessment. This paper illustrates a methodology for selecting from the available CMIP5 models in order to identify a set of 8–10 GCMs for use in regional climate change assessments. The selection focuses on their suitability across multiple regions—Southeast Asia, Europe and Africa. The selection (a) avoids the inclusion of the least realistic models for each region and (b) simultaneously captures the maximum possible range of changes in surface temperature and precipitation for three continental-scale regions. We find that, of the CMIP5 GCMs with 6-hourly fields available, three simulate the key regional aspects of climate sufficiently poorly that we consider the projections from those models ‘implausible’ (
MIROC
-
ESM, MIROC
-
ESM
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CHEM,
and
IPSL
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CM5B
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LR
). From the remaining models, we demonstrate a selection methodology which avoids the poorest models by including them in the set only if their exclusion would significantly reduce the range of projections sampled. The result of this process is a set of models suitable for using to generate downscaled climate change information for a consistent multi-regional assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.
Interest in electrical energy storage systems is increasing as the opportunities for their application become more compelling in an industry with a back-drop of ageing assets, increasing distributed ...generation and a desire to transform networks into Smart Grids. A field trial of an energy storage system designed and built by ABB is taking place on a section of 11
kV distribution network operated by EDF Energy Networks in Great Britain. This paper reports on the findings from simulation software developed at Durham University that evaluates the benefits brought by operating an energy storage system in response to multiple events on multiple networks. The tool manages the allocation of a finite energy resource to achieve the most beneficial shared operation across two adjacent areas of distribution network. Simulations account for the key energy storage system parameters of capacity and power rating. Results for events requiring voltage control and power flow management show how the choice of operating strategy influences the benefits achieved. The wider implications of these results are discussed to provide an assessment of the role of electrical energy storage systems in future Smart Grids.
Aerosol processes and, in particular, aerosol‐cloud interactions cut across the traditional physical‐Earth system boundary of coupled Earth system models and remain one of the key uncertainties in ...estimating anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate. Here we calculate the historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) in the HadGEM3‐GA7 climate model in order to assess the suitability of this model for inclusion in the UK Earth system model, UKESM1. The aerosol ERF, calculated for the year 2000 relative to 1850, is large and negative in the standard GA7 model leading to an unrealistic negative total anthropogenic forcing over the twentieth century. We show how underlying assumptions and missing processes in both the physical model and aerosol parameterizations lead to this large aerosol ERF. A number of model improvements are investigated to assess their impact on the aerosol ERF. These include an improved representation of cloud droplet spectral dispersion, updates to the aerosol activation scheme, and black carbon optical properties. One of the largest contributors to the aerosol forcing uncertainty is insufficient knowledge of the preindustrial aerosol climate. We evaluate the contribution of uncertainties in the natural marine emissions of dimethyl sulfide and organic aerosol to the ERF. The combination of model improvements derived from these studies weakens the aerosol ERF by up to 50% of the original value and leads to a total anthropogenic historical forcing more in line with assessed values.
Key Points
The HadGEM3‐GA7 climate model has a large, negative aerosol ERF resulting in an unrealistic negative total anthropogenic forcing of climate
The aerosol ERF is shown to be highly sensitive to the underlying physical and aerosol model processes and parameterizations
Through a combination of scientific model improvements the aerosol ERF is reduced by up to 50% from –2.75 to –1.45 W/m2
In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to ...assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005–2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al.
2010
). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs. The land-use harmonization strategy estimates fractional land-use patterns and underlying land-use transitions annually for the time period 1500–2100 at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution. Inputs include new gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.1 for 1500–2005, updated estimates of historical national wood harvest and of shifting cultivation, and future information on crop, pasture, and wood harvest from the IAM implementations of the RCPs for the period 2005–2100. The computational method integrates these multiple data sources, while minimizing differences at the transition between the historical reconstruction ending conditions and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve the future changes depicted by the IAMs at the grid cell level. This study for the first time harmonizes land-use history data together with future scenario information from multiple IAMs into a single consistent, spatially gridded, set of land-use change scenarios for studies of human impacts on the past, present, and future Earth system.
This study is an extensive revision of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) land station temperature database that is used to produce a gridbox dataset of 5° latitude × 5° longitude temperature ...anomalies. The new database comprises 5159 station records, of which 4167 have enough data for the 1961–90 period to calculate or estimate the necessary averages. Apart from the increase in station numbers compared to the earlier study in 1994, many station records have had their data replaced by newly homogenized series that have been produced by several recent studies. New versions of all the gridded datasets currently available on the CRU Web site (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk) have been developed. This includes combinations with marine (sea surface temperature anomalies) data over the oceans and versions with adjustment of the variance of individual gridbox series to remove the effects of changing station numbers through time.
Hemispheric and global temperature averages for land areas developed with the new dataset differ slightly from those developed in 1994. Possible reasons for the differences between the new and the earlier analysis and those from the National Climatic Data Center and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies are discussed. Differences are greatest over the Southern Hemisphere and at the beginnings and ends of each time series and relate to gridbox sizes and data availability. The rate of annual warming for global land areas over the 1901–2000 period is estimated by least squares to be 0.07°C decade−1(significant at better than the 99.9% level). Warming is not continuous but occurs principally over two periods (about 1920–45 and since 1975). Annual temperature series for the seven continents and the Arctic all show significant warming over the twentieth century, with significant (95%) warming for 1920–44 for North America, the Arctic, Africa, and South America, and all continents except Australia and the Antarctic since 1977. Cooling is significant during the intervening period (1945–76) for North America, the Arctic, and Africa.
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