The decarbonised future European electricity system must remain secure: reliable electricity supply is a prerequisite for the functioning of modern society. Scenarios like Desertec, which partially ...rely on solar power imports from the Middle East and North Africa, may be attractive for decarbonisation, but raise concerns about terrorists interrupting supply by attacking the long, unprotected transmission lines in the Sahara. In this paper, I develop new methods and assess the European vulnerability to terrorist attacks in the Desertec scenario. I compare this to the vulnerability of today's system and a decarbonisation scenario in which Europe relies on gas imports for electricity generation. I show that the vulnerability of both gas and electricity imports is low, but electricity imports are more vulnerable than gas imports, due to their technical characteristics. Gas outages (and, potentially, resulting blackouts) are the very unlikely consequence even of very high-number attacks against the gas import system, whereas short blackouts are the potential consequence of a few attacks against the import electricity lines. As the impacts of all except extreme attacks are limited, terrorists cannot attack energy infrastructure and cause spectacular, fear-creating outages. Both gas and electricity import infrastructure are thus unattractive and unlikely terrorist targets.
•A comparison of terrorism risks of importing solar power and gas for power generation.•Both scenarios show low vulnerability to terrorist attacks.•Within low vulnerabilities, gas imports are less vulnerable than electricity imports.•Causing spectacular, large and long outages is very difficult for attacker.•The attractiveness of gas and power import infrastructure as terrorist target is low.
•We assess the usefulness of DR in a German renewables-only (future) power system.•Shifting potential is constrained by consumer acceptance and process reconnection.•We show that DR is useful as ...spinning & primary reserves and to dampen gradients.•It is unsuited for secondary/tertiary reserve or covering long low sun/wind periods.•Conclusion: DR has large potential for short-term shifts but not for longer shifts.
The expansion of fluctuating renewable electricity sources creates new challenges for grid operators. One often suggested solution is demand-side response (DR): the adaptation of electricity consumption to generation. Here, we investigate what role DR could play to support system stability through fully remote-controlled (by the grid operator) shifts of individual processes in households and in the commercial and industrial sectors, testing the case of a high-renewables future in Germany. The grid operator is constrained by consumer acceptance of service interruptions, both in size and shift duration, and by technical boundaries. We find that DR has a large potential and is suited for short-term services such as spinning reserve or primary control and for damping residual load gradients. However, its potential is low for longer-term services like secondary/tertiary control or for satisfying residual load during low sun/wind times in a high-renewables future. We find that the potential for DR is not limited by the magnitude of shiftable capacity but by the maximum shift duration and the patterns of switching between positive and negative power demand, which makes DR useful for fast and short-term services but less useful for longer shifts.
Because solar and wind resources are available throughout Europe, a transition to an electricity system based on renewables could simultaneously be a transition to an autarkic one. We investigate to ...which extent electricity autarky on different levels is possible in Europe, from the continental, to the national, regional, and municipal levels, assuming that electricity autarky is only possible when the technical potential of renewable electricity exceeds local demand. We determine the technical potential of roof-mounted and open field photovoltaics, as well as on- and offshore wind turbines through an analysis of surface eligibility, considering land cover, settlements, elevation, and protected areas as determinants of eligibility for renewable electricity generation. In line with previous analyses we find that the technical-social potential of renewable electricity is greater than demand on the European and national levels. For subnational autarky, the situation is different: here, demand exceeds potential in several regions, an effect that is stronger the higher population density is. To reach electricity autarky below the national level, regions would need to use very large fractions or all of their non-built-up land for renewable electricity generation. Subnational autarky requires electricity generation to be in close proximity to demand and thus increases the pressure on non-built-up land especially in densely populated dense regions where pressure is already high. Our findings show that electricity autarky below the national level is often not possible in densely populated areas in Europe.
•We show in which parts of Europe local electricity autarky is possible in principle.•More than 3000 European municipalities cannot be autarkic due to insufficient land area.•Deploying rooftop PV is key for autarky, if storage can be handled.•Opposition to dense local generation will diminish possibility of autarky.•Cooperation between municipalities and regions can relieve local pressure on land.
Solar power imports to Europe from the deserts of North Africa, as foreseen in the Desertec concept, is one possible way to help decarbonising the European power sector by 2050. However, this ...approach raises questions of threats to European energy security in such an import scenario, particularly in the light of increasing import dependency and Russia's use of the “energy weapon” in recent years. In this paper we investigate the threat of North African countries using the Desertec electricity exports as an “energy weapon”. We develop and use a new model to assess the interdependence – the bargaining power symmetry, operationalised as costs – of a disruption in a future renewable electricity trade between North Africa and Europe. If Europe maintains current capacity buffers, some demand-response capability and does not import much more than what is described in the Desertec scenario, it is susceptible to extortion and political pressure only if all five exporter countries unite in using the energy weapon. Europe is not vulnerable to extortion by an export cut from only one country, as the European capacity buffers are sufficient to restore the power supply: no single exporter country would have sustained bargaining power over Europe.
► European vulnerability to energy weapon extortion in a Desertec-style electricity future is assessed. ► The vulnerability to the energy weapon is conceptualised as the direct disruption costs on both sides. ► The paper shows that Europe is not vulnerable to single-country export disruptions. ► If all exporters cut supplies simultaneously, Europe may be vulnerable to the energy weapon.
The rapid uptake of renewable energy technologies in recent decades has increased the demand of energy researchers, policymakers and energy planners for reliable data on the spatial distribution of ...their costs and potentials. For onshore wind energy this has resulted in an active research field devoted to analysing these resources for regions, countries or globally. A particular thread of this research attempts to go beyond purely technical or spatial restrictions and determine the realistic, feasible or actual potential for wind energy. Motivated by these developments, this paper reviews methods and assumptions for analysing geographical, technical, economic and, finally, feasible onshore wind potentials. We address each of these potentials in turn, including aspects related to land eligibility criteria, energy meteorology, and technical developments of wind turbine characteristics such as power density, specific rotor power and spacing aspects. Economic aspects of potential assessments are central to future deployment and are discussed on a turbine and system level covering levelized costs depending on locations, and the system integration costs which are often overlooked in such analyses. Non-technical approaches include scenicness assessments of the landscape, constraints due to regulation or public opposition, expert and stakeholder workshops, willingness to pay/accept elicitations and socioeconomic cost-benefit studies. For each of these different potential estimations, the state of the art is critically discussed, with an attempt to derive best practice recommendations and highlight avenues for future research.
•Review of over 300 studies on large-scale onshore wind potential assessments.•Analysis of geographic, technical, economic and ‘feasible’ potentials.•Identify weaknesses in methods and best practice examples.•Methods could improve transparency, validation, and sensitivities.•Further interdisciplinary research required on ‘feasible’ potentials.
The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have both large fossil fuel resources and vast renewable energy potentials. Here, we investigate in a literature meta-analysis and a survey, ...whether there is a need for renewables in the GCC, what barriers and risks presently deter investments, and what possible policy-solutions could be. We find that there is a long-term need for renewables, to diversify the economy and prepare for a post-fossil fuel era. In the short term, two main obstacles deter investments: inefficient bureaucracy, and the combination of fossil fuel/electricity subsidies and the absence of renewable energy support. Removing fossil fuel and consumption subsidies or introducing a support scheme could make investments in renewables profitable. Eliminating energy subsidies appears particularly beneficial to the economic outlook but this seems particularly difficult to implement, due to the political economy of rentier states. Increased bureaucratic transparency and efficiency is needed, so that potentially attractive investments can rapidly and predictably obtain the necessary permissions. Hence, the administrative and economic environment for renewable energy investments in the GCC is not right today, and no breakthrough is on the horizon, but there is a range of policy solutions to enable investments in the future.
As the climate targets tighten and countries are impacted by several crises, understanding how and under which conditions carbon dioxide emissions peak and start declining is gaining importance. We ...assess the timing of emissions peaks in all major emitters (1965-2019) and the extent to which past economic crises have impacted structural drivers of emissions contributing to emission peaks. We show that in 26 of 28 countries that have peaked emissions, the peak occurred just before or during a recession through the combined effect of lower economic growth (1.5 median percentage points per year) and decreasing energy and/or carbon intensity (0.7) during and after the crisis. In peak-and-decline countries, crises have typically magnified pre-existing improvements in structural change. In non-peaking countries, economic growth was less affected, and structural change effects were weaker or increased emissions. Crises do not automatically trigger peaks but may strengthen ongoing decarbonisation trends through several mechanisms.
Energy efficiency measures and the deployment of renewable energy are commonly presented as two sides of the same coin—as necessary and synergistic measures to decarbonize energy systems and reach ...the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. Here, we quantitatively investigate the policies and performances of the EU Member States to see whether renewables and energy efficiency policies are politically synergistic or if they rather compete for political attention and resources. We find that Member States, especially the ones perceived as climate leaders, tend to prioritize renewables over energy efficiency in target setting. Further, almost every country performs well in either renewable energy or energy efficiency, but rarely performs well in both. We find no support for the assertion that the policies are synergistic, but some evidence that they compete. However, multi-linear regression models for performance show that performance, especially in energy efficiency, is also strongly associated with general economic growth cycles, and not only efficiency policy as such. We conclude that renewable energy and energy efficiency are not synergistic policies, and that there is some competition between them.
Background
The COVID-19 pandemic affected stakeholder engagement in sustainability research projects in many ways. But which effects appear permanent today, after the pandemic ended?
Methods
To ...address this, we interviewed researchers and stakeholders and carried out a survey among European sustainability research projects in 2022.
Results
We find that the pandemic years disrupted stakeholder-based research, also with lasting effects. The forced shift to online modes showed how digital engagement can bring benefits in terms of easier and more efficient stakeholder engagement, but also that important aspects are lost, particularly regarding intensity of collaboration and depth of insights. Whether to go online or stay offline depends largely on the research objective, which stakeholders to involve, and how well researchers and stakeholders already know each other. Most researchers and stakeholders want to continue online collaboration in the long term, especially those with positive online collaboration experiences from the pandemic years.
Conclusions
The pandemic has a long-term impact on stakeholder engagement in research; online engagement cannot replace all benefit of previous in-person interactions with stakeholders, but it has led to digital innovations and expanded the engagement portfolio. Our research has provided qualitative insights into the impact of the pandemic on stakeholder engagement in various sustainability research projects and the implications for the long-term future that are relevant to researchers and funding agencies.
Air pollution is the single most important environmental health risk, causing about 7 million premature deaths annually worldwide. China is the world's largest emitter of anthropogenic air ...pollutants, which causes major negative health consequences. The Chinese government has implemented several policies to reduce air pollution, with success in some but far from all sectors. In addition to the health benefits, reducing air pollution will have side-benefits, such as an increase in the electricity generated by the solar photovoltaic panels via an increase in surface solar irradiance through a reduction of haze and aerosol-impacted clouds. We use the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 with the bottom-up emissions inventory from the Community Emission Data System and quantify the geographically specific increases in generation and economic revenue to the Chinese solar photovoltaic fleet as a result of reducing or eliminating air pollution from the energy, industrial, transport, and residential and commercial sectors. We find that by 2040, the gains will be substantial: the projected solar photovoltaic fleet would produce between 85-158 TWh/year of additional power in clean compared to polluted air, generating US$6.9-10.1 billion of additional annual revenues in the solar photovoltaic sector alone. Furthermore, we quantify the cost of adopting best-practice emission standards in all sectors and find that the revenue gains from the increased solar photovoltaic generation could offset up to about 13-17% of the costs of strong air pollution control measures designed to reach near-zero emissions in all sectors. Hence, reducing air pollution in China will not only have clear health benefits, but the side-effect of increased solar power generation would also offset a sizeable share of the costs of air pollution control measures.
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