Lack of constraint on spatial and long-term temporal variability of the El Niño southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its sensitivity to external forcing limit our ability to evaluate climate models and ...ENSO future projections. Current knowledge of Holocene ENSO variability derived from paleoclimate reconstructions does not separate the role of insolation forcing from internal climate variability. Using an updated synthesis of coral and bivalve monthly resolved records, we build composite records of seasonality and interannual variability in four regions of the tropical Pacific: Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), Western Pacific (WP) and South West Pacific (SWP). An analysis of the uncertainties due to the sampling of chaotic multidecadal to centennial variability by short records allows for an objective comparison with transient simulations (mid-Holocene to present) performed using four different Earth System models. Sea surface temperature and pseudo-δ18O are used in model-data comparisons to assess the potential influence of hydroclimate change on records. We confirm the significance of the Holocene ENSO minimum (HEM) 3-6ka compared to low frequency unforced modulation of ENSO, with a reduction of ENSO variance of ∼50 % in EP and ∼80 % in CP. The approach suggests that the increasing trend of ENSO since 6ka can be attributed to insolation, while models underestimate ENSO sensitivity to orbital forcing by a factor of 4.7 compared to data, even when accounting for the large multidecadal variability. Precession-induced change in seasonal temperature range is positively linked to ENSO variance in EP and to a lesser extent in other regions, in both models and observations. Our regional approach yields insights into the past spatial expression of ENSO across the tropical Pacific. In the SWP, today under the influence of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), interannual variability was increased by ∼200 % during the HEM, indicating that SPCZ variability is independent from ENSO on millennial time scales.
•Composite paleo-ENSO records compared to transient simulations in 4 Pacific regions.•Holocene ENSO minimum (HEM) 3-6ka is significant compared to centennial variability.•Trend in ENSO since 6ka is robustly attributed to insolation forcing.•Seasonal range and ENSO are positively linked in both models and observations.•The interannual variability in the SPCZ was strongly increased during the HEM.
Northern Hemispheric summer monsoons were more intense during the mid-Holocene (MH ~ 6000 years ago) and coincided with a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to the ...pre-industrial (PI) climate. Ancient civilizations in the Indus valley, Mesopotamia, and Egypt appear to have flourished during this period, thanks to abundant water availability. This study exploits a high-resolution variable grid global atmosphere model to understand the role of orbital forcing and ocean surface conditions in strengthening the monsoons and shifting the ITCZ northward over Africa, India, and East Asia during the MH. The combined impact of orbital forcing and sea surface temperature (SST) boundary conditions led to a change in monsoon rainfall of around 42, 30, 21, and 41% over Africa, East Asia, India, and northwest India (NWI) relative to the PI conditions. Changes in orbital parameters alone account for more than 36 and 26% of total rainfall increases in Africa and East Asia. Over the Indian subcontinent, the strengthening of monsoon was primarily a combined effect of SST and orbital forcing. In contrast, the SST boundary condition alone could explain the 39% of rainfall increase over NWI, where the Indus valley civilization once existed. Through moisture budget analysis, the study further illustrates the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors responsible for the changes in monsoon precipitation. The enhanced monsoon resulted in a northward shift of ITCZ by around 3°N, 1.9°N, and 2.5°N over Africa, East Asia, and India, respectively, compared to its PI position. Analogous to the precipitation changes, orbital forcing mostly mediated ITCZ changes across Africa and East Asia, but the combined impact of orbital forcing and SST was responsible for the changes over India.
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval ...when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.
The climates of the mid-Holocene (MH), 6,000 years ago, and of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21,000 years ago, have extensively been simulated, in particular in the framework of the Palaeoclimate ...Modelling Intercomparion Project. These periods are well documented by paleo-records, which can be used for evaluating model results for climates different from the present one. Here, we present new simulations of the MH and the LGM climates obtained with the IPSL_CM5A model and compare them to our previous results obtained with the IPSL_CM4 model. Compared to IPSL_CM4, IPSL_CM5A includes two new features: the interactive representation of the plant phenology and marine biogeochemistry. But one of the most important differences between these models is the latitudinal resolution and vertical domain of their atmospheric component, which have been improved in IPSL_CM5A and results in a better representation of the mid-latitude jet-streams. The Asian monsoon’s representation is also substantially improved. The global average mean annual temperature simulated for the pre-industrial (PI) period is colder in IPSL_CM5A than in IPSL_CM4 but their climate sensitivity to a CO
2
doubling is similar. Here we show that these differences in the simulated PI climate have an impact on the simulated MH and LGM climatic anomalies. The larger cooling response to LGM boundary conditions in IPSL_CM5A appears to be mainly due to differences between the PMIP3 and PMIP2 boundary conditions, as shown by a short wave radiative forcing/feedback analysis based on a simplified perturbation method. It is found that the sensitivity computed from the LGM climate is lower than that computed from 2 × CO
2
simulations, confirming previous studies based on different models. For the MH, the Asian monsoon, stronger in the IPSL_CM5A PI simulation, is also more sensitive to the insolation changes. The African monsoon is also further amplified in IPSL_CM5A due to the impact of the interactive phenology. Finally the changes in variability for both models and for MH and LGM are presented taking the example of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is very different in the PI simulations. ENSO variability is damped in both model versions at the MH, whereas inconsistent responses are found between the two versions for the LGM. Part 2 of this paper examines whether these differences between IPSL_CM4 and IPSL_CM5A can be distinguished when comparing those results to palaeo-climatic reconstructions and investigates new approaches for model-data comparisons made possible by the inclusion of new components in IPSL_CM5A.
A single‐column model approach conducted in the context of the Madden–Julian Oscillation through the CINDY2011/Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation field campaign is used to disentangle the ...respective role of the parameterizations of surface turbulent fluxes and of model atmospheric physics in controlling the surface latent heat flux. The major differences between the models used in this study occur during the suppressed phases of deep convection. They are attributed to differences in model atmospheric physics which is shown to control the near‐surface relative humidity and thereby the surface latent heat flux. In contrast, during active phases of deep convection, turbulent air‐sea flux parameterizations impact the latent heat flux through the drag coefficient and can represent two thirds of the divergence caused by the different atmospheric physics. The combined effects need to be accounted for to improve both the representation of latent heat flux and the atmospheric variables used to compute it.
Key Points
A single‐column model approach is used in the context of the CINDY2011/DYNAMO field campaign to compare models results during a MJO event
Near‐surface relative humidity is a key constraint for the surface latent heat flux and the way it is simulated by different models
Compared to atmospheric physics, air‐sea flux parameterization has a relatively large impact only during active convective phases
State-of-the-art Earth system models, like the ones used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), suffer from temporal inconsistencies at the ocean–atmosphere interface. Indeed, ...the coupling algorithms generally implemented in those models do not allow for a correct phasing between the ocean and the atmosphere and hence between their diurnal cycles.
A possibility to remove these temporal inconsistencies is to use an iterative coupling algorithm based on the Schwarz iterative method. Despite its large computational cost compared to standard coupling methods, which makes the algorithm implementation impractical for production runs, the Schwarz method is useful to evaluate some of the errors made in state-of-the-art ocean–atmosphere coupled models (e.g., in the representation of the processes related to diurnal cycle), as illustrated by the present study. IPSL-CM6-SW-VLR is a low-resolution version of the IPSL-CM6 coupled model with a simplified land surface model, implementing a Schwarz iterative coupling scheme. Comparisons between coupled solutions obtained with this new scheme and the standard IPSL coupling scheme (referred to as the parallel algorithm) show large differences after sunrise and before sunset, when the external forcing (insolation at the top of the atmosphere) has the fastest pace of change. At these times of the day, the difference between the two numerical solutions is often larger than 100 % of the solution, even with a small coupling period, thus suggesting that significant errors are potentially made with current coupling methods. Most of those differences can be strongly reduced by making only two iterations of the Schwarz method, which leads to a doubling of the computing cost.
Besides the parallel algorithm used in IPSL-CM6, we also test a so-called sequential atmosphere-first algorithm, which is used in some coupled ocean–atmosphere models. We show that the sequential algorithm improves the numerical results compared to the parallel one at the expanse of a loss of parallelism.
The present study focuses on the ocean–atmosphere interface with no sea ice. The problem with three components (ocean–sea ice–atmosphere) remains to be investigated.
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