HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational ...variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15-49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.
There are growing demands for predicting the prospects of achieving the global elimination of neglected tropical diseases as a result of the institution of large-scale nation-wide intervention ...programs by the WHO-set target year of 2020. Such predictions will be uncertain due to the impacts that spatial heterogeneity and scaling effects will have on parasite transmission processes, which will introduce significant aggregation errors into any attempt aiming to predict the outcomes of interventions at the broader spatial levels relevant to policy making. We describe a modeling platform that addresses this problem of upscaling from local settings to facilitate predictions at regional levels by the discovery and use of locality-specific transmission models, and we illustrate the utility of using this approach to evaluate the prospects for eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in sub-Saharan Africa by the WHO target year of 2020 using currently applied or newly proposed intervention strategies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We show how a computational platform that couples site-specific data discovery with model fitting and calibration can allow both learning of local LF transmission models and simulations of the impact of interventions that take a fuller account of the fine-scale heterogeneous transmission of this parasitic disease within endemic countries. We highlight how such a spatially hierarchical modeling tool that incorporates actual data regarding the roll-out of national drug treatment programs and spatial variability in infection patterns into the modeling process can produce more realistic predictions of timelines to LF elimination at coarse spatial scales, ranging from district to country to continental levels. Our results show that when locally applicable extinction thresholds are used, only three countries are likely to meet the goal of LF elimination by 2020 using currently applied mass drug treatments, and that switching to more intensive drug regimens, increasing the frequency of treatments, or switching to new triple drug regimens will be required if LF elimination is to be accelerated in Africa. The proportion of countries that would meet the goal of eliminating LF by 2020 may, however, reach up to 24/36 if the WHO 1% microfilaremia prevalence threshold is used and sequential mass drug deliveries are applied in countries.
We have developed and applied a data-driven spatially hierarchical computational platform that uses the discovery of locally applicable transmission models in order to predict the prospects for eliminating the macroparasitic disease, LF, at the coarser country level in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in local parasite transmission and extinction dynamics, as well as the exact nature of intervention roll-outs in countries, will impact the timelines to achieving national LF elimination on this continent.
Educational attainment for women of reproductive age is linked to reduced child and maternal mortality, lower fertility and improved reproductive health. Comparable analyses of attainment exist only ...at the national level, potentially obscuring patterns in subnational inequality. Evidence suggests that wide disparities between urban and rural populations exist, raising questions about where the majority of progress towards the education targets of the Sustainable Development Goals is occurring in African countries. Here we explore within-country inequalities by predicting years of schooling across five by five kilometre grids, generating estimates of average educational attainment by age and sex at subnational levels. Despite marked progress in attainment from 2000 to 2015 across Africa, substantial differences persist between locations and sexes. These differences have widened in many countries, particularly across the Sahel. These high-resolution, comparable estimates improve the ability of decision-makers to plan the precisely targeted interventions that will be necessary to deliver progress during the era of the Sustainable Development Goals.
HIV remains the largest cause of disease burden among men and women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa. Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of female-to-male ...transmission of HIV by 50-60%. The World Health Organization (WHO) and Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) identified 14 priority countries for VMMC campaigns and set a coverage goal of 80% for men ages 15-49. From 2008 to 2017, over 18 million VMMCs were reported in priority countries. Nonetheless, relatively little is known about local variation in male circumcision (MC) prevalence.
We analyzed geo-located MC prevalence data from 109 household surveys using a Bayesian geostatistical modeling framework to estimate adult MC prevalence and the number of circumcised and uncircumcised men aged 15-49 in 38 countries in sub-Saharan Africa at a 5 × 5-km resolution and among first administrative level (typically provinces or states) and second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.
We found striking within-country and between-country variation in MC prevalence; most (12 of 14) priority countries had more than a twofold difference between their first administrative level units with the highest and lowest estimated prevalence in 2017. Although estimated national MC prevalence increased in all priority countries with the onset of VMMC campaigns, seven priority countries contained both subnational areas where estimated MC prevalence increased and areas where estimated MC prevalence decreased after the initiation of VMMC campaigns. In 2017, only three priority countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania) were likely to have reached the MC coverage target of 80% at the national level, and no priority country was likely to have reached this goal in all subnational areas.
Despite MC prevalence increases in all priority countries since the onset of VMMC campaigns in 2008, MC prevalence remains below the 80% coverage target in most subnational areas and is highly variable. These mapped results provide an actionable tool for understanding local needs and informing VMMC interventions for maximum impact in the continued effort towards ending the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.
Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development ...Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
Over the last several years and within the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals, there has been a need to improve the measurement and understanding of local geographic patterns to support ...more decentralized decision-making and more efficient program implementation. This requires more disaggregated data that are not currently available in a nationally representative household survey. This study explores the potential of model-based geostatistics methodology to model DHS survey indicators. We implement a stacked ensemble modeling approach that combines multiple model algorithmic methods to increase predictive validity relative to a single modeling. The approach captures potentially complex interactions and non-linear effects among the geospatial covariates. Three submodels are fitted to six DHS indicator survey data using the geospatial covariates as exploratory predictors. The model prediction surfaces generated from the submodels are used as covariates in the final Bayesian geostatistical model, which is implemented through a stochastic partial differential equation approach in the integrated nested Laplace approximations. The proposed approach can help to inform the allocation of resources and program implementation in areas that need more attention. Countries can use this approach to model other DHS survey indicators at much smaller spatial scales.
Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a simple intervention that can prevent childhood deaths from severe diarrhea and dehydration. In a previous study, we mapped the use of ORS treatment subnationally ...and found that ORS coverage increased over time, while the use of home-made alternatives or recommended home fluids (RHF) decreased, in many countries. These patterns were particularly striking within Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone. It was unclear, however, whether ORS replaced RHF in these locations or if children were left untreated, and if these patterns were associated with health policy changes.
We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from household surveys to map the percentage of children with diarrhea that received (1) any ORS, (2) only RHF, or (3) no oral rehydration treatment between 2000 and 2018. This approach allowed examination of whether RHF was replaced with ORS before and after interventions, policies, and external events that may have impacted healthcare access.
We found that RHF was replaced with ORS in most Sierra Leone districts, except those most impacted by the Ebola outbreak. In addition, RHF was replaced in northern but not in southern Mali, and RHF was not replaced anywhere in Senegal. In Senegal, there was no statistical evidence that a national policy promoting ORS use was associated with increases in coverage. In Sierra Leone, ORS coverage increased following a national policy change that abolished health costs for children.
Children in parts of Mali and Senegal have been left behind during ORS scale-up. Improved messaging on effective diarrhea treatment and/or increased ORS access such as through reducing treatment costs may be needed to prevent child deaths in these areas.
Display omitted
•Education, gender and livelihoods are the major determinants of malaria acquisition.•Rice farmers experience longer periods of fever illness than pastoralists.•Treatment seeking ...behaviors differ by the size of the household and gender.•Women experience significantly more episodes of fever than men.•Malaria is more frequent among pastoral than rice farming communities.
This study was carried out to understand the role social determinants and health seeking behavior among rice farming and pastoral communities in Kilosa District in central Tanzania. The study involved four villages; two with rice farming communities while the other two with pastoral communities. In each village, heads of households or their spouses were interviewed to seek information on livelihoods activities, knowledge and practices on malaria and its preventions. A total of 471 individuals (males=38.9%; females=61.1%) were interviewed. Only 23.5% of the respondents had adequate knowledge on malaria. Fifty-six percent of the respondents could not associate any livelihood activity with malaria transmission. Majority (79%) of the respondents believed that most of fevers were due to malaria; this was higher among the pastoral (81.7%) than rice farming communities (76.1%) (p=0.038). Cases of fever were significantly higher in households with non-educated (31.2%) than educated respondents (21.5%). Women experienced significantly more episodes of fever than men (p<0.001). Of the total of 2606 individuals living in the households, 26.9% were reported to have had fever in the previous three months. Fever was reported more frequently among pastoral than rice farming communities (p<0.01). Of those who had fever, 36.6% were clinically diagnosed with malaria and 22.9% were confirmed to be infected with malaria. A combination of fever+convulsions or joint pains+headache was most frequently perceived to be malaria. Treatment seeking frequency differed by the size of the household and between rice farming and pastoral communities (p=0.05). In conclusion, education, sex, availability of health care facility and livelihood practices were the major social determinants that influence malaria acquisition and care seeking pattern in central Tanzania. Appropriate public health promotion should be designed to address the links of livelihoods and malaria transmission among rural farming communities in an ecohealth approach.
Malaria prevalence and transmission intensity in Tanzania is heterogeneous with spatial and temporal variations between geographical areas and ecological systems. The objective of this study was to ...determine the prevalence of malaria, anaemia and nutritional status in relation to livelihoods, ecosystem and health systems in Kilosa District in central Tanzania.
This study was conducted in four villages, two characterised by rice irrigation ecosystem and the other two by dry savannah ecosystem and pastoral livelihoods. In each ecosystem, one of the villages had a healthcare facility. Schoolchildren were screened for malaria infection using malaria rapid diagnostic test (mRDT) and microscopy and they were assessed for their anaemia and nutritional statuses.
A total of 1,019 school children (age = 4-16 years) were screened for malaria infection. The overall prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection was 10.6% and 4.5% by mRDT and microscopy, respectively. Children from pastoral villages had lower (2.9%) prevalence of malaria than their counterparts (18.2%) in the rice irrigation villages. A significantly high risk of malaria was observed among children in rice irrigation than in the pastoral ecosystem (OR: 0.13; 95%CI 0.07, 0.23). Children living in areas with health care facilities had a low odd of malaria infection by 45% (OR: 0.55; 95% CI = 0.35, 0.86). Overall, the prevalence of anaemia in the district was 43.4% (n = 775); and 58.3% of those with severe anaemia were among children from the pastoral villages. Anaemia was significantly higher among children not using mosquito nets (p = 0.049); and among those with malaria infection (p <0.001). The majority (96%) of the children had Body Mass Index less than 18.5 kg/m(2) which indicate high proportion of underweight.
There are significant variations in the risk of acquiring malaria infection between different ecosystems and livelihoods. These findings suggest that malaria control programmes must take into account ecosystems and livelihoods of the targeted population through an integrated management of malaria and nutrition approach.
. A comparison was made of the prevalence of malaria and helminth coinfection among schoolchildren in Tanzania. Children in rice irrigated ecosystems were at highest risk of acquiring coinfections ...than those from sugarcane or savannah ecosystems. Display omitted
► Sixty percent of children in Tanzania have at least an infection of either Plasmodium falciparum or helminth. ► Co-infections of P. falciparum+W. bancrofti and P. falciparum+S. haematobium are most prevalent. ► Children from rice irrigated ecosystems are at highest risk of acquiring double, triple or quadruple infections. ► Malaria-helminth co-infections are prevalent among children and the pattern varies between agro-ecosystems.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, some individuals infected with malaria are also infected with helminths. However, the magnitude and distribution of such coinfections in relation to eco-systems remains poorly defined. This study was undertaken to determine the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum and helminth coinfections among schoolchildren in relation to agro-ecosystems in Mvomero District, Tanzania.
The agro-ecosystems were categorised as sugarcane, traditional flooding rice irrigation, improved non-flooding rice irrigation and savannah. Schoolchildren had their blood examined for P. falciparum and Wuchereria bancrofti; urine for Schistosoma haematobium and stool for intestinal helminths. Blood samples were also examined for haemoglobin concentration.
A total of 578 schoolchildren (mean age=7.96 years) were involved in the study. Overall, 60% of all schoolchildren had at least an infection of either P. falciparum, W. bancrofti, S. haematobium or hookworm. The highest prevalence of P. falciparum (75.3%), W. bancrofti (62.9%) and hookworm (24.7%) infections was observed among children in flooding rice irrigation ecosystem. P. falciparum+S. haematobium (10.9%) and P. falciparum+W. bancrofti (11.1%) were the most prevalent types of coinfection in the area. The highest prevalence of double parasitic infections was observed among children in the flooding rice irrigation ecosystems. The risk for acquiring coinfections of P. falciparum+W. bancrofti was significantly higher among children in the flooding rice irrigation ecosystem. Forty-five (7.8%) children were coinfected with three types of parasitic infections. The risk of acquiring triple infection among children from flooding rice irrigation was higher for P. falciparum+S. haematobium+W. bancrofti (p<0.001). Seven schoolchildren (1.2%) were found infected with four parasites and all were from the flooding rice irrigation ecosystem. Significantly high P. falciparum geometric parasite density was observed among children coinfected with either hookworms or W. bancrofti (p<0.001). On average, 17.8% (103/578) of the children had enlarged spleens. Over 3- and 4-folds increase in the risk of having an enlarged spleen were observed among children coinfected with P. falciparum+S. haematobium and P. falciparum+W. bancrofti, respectively. The overall prevalence of anaemia (<11.5g/dl) was 61.9% (358/578).
Malaria–helminth coinfections are prevalent among schoolchildren in rural Tanzania and the pattern varies between agro-ecosystems. Results of this study suggest that integrated control of malaria and helminthes should be designed based on the local agro-ecosystems.
PDF
