In a decade-long soil warming experiment in a mid-latitude hardwood forest, we documented changes in soil carbon and nitrogen cycling in order to investigate the consequences of these changes for the ...climate system. Here we show that whereas soil warming accelerates soil organic matter decay and carbon dioxide fluxes to the atmosphere, this response is small and short-lived for a mid-latitude forest, because of the limited size of the labile soil carbon pool. We also show that warming increases the availability of mineral nitrogen to plants. Because plant growth in many mid-latitude forests is nitrogen-limited, warming has the potential to indirectly stimulate enough carbon storage in plants to at least compensate for the carbon losses from soils. Our results challenge assumptions made in some climate models that lead to projections of large long-term releases of soil carbon in response to warming of forest ecosystems.
Humans have altered the global and regional cycles of nitrogen more than any other element. Alteration of N cycling patterns and processes in forests is one potentially negative outcome of ...accelerated N deposition worldwide. To assess potential impacts of N deposition on temperate forests, a series of chronic nitrogen additions in two contrasting forest types (red pine plantation and mixed hardwood stand) were designed as a core experiment of the Harvard Forest (HF) Long-term Ecological Research (LTER) program. This paper describes the chronic N experimental study site in detail and presents the long-term baseline measurements established at the beginning of treatments in 1988.
Results reported here continue or accelerate trends presented in previous papers. Losses of inorganic N remain high in the high N plots (higher in pines than hardwoods) and low N plots in the pine stand also have measurable DIN losses. Foliar and fine root N concentrations are elevated significantly. Mortality of red pine reached 56% by 2002 in the pine high N plot, and biomass accumulation has stopped altogether. The high N hardwood stand shows increased ANPP, but excess N availability and a severe drought in 1995 contributed to mortality of 72% of red maple trees by 2002. Species importance and litterfall patterns were altered in several plots after 1995. Roots, foliage and wood have diminished as net sinks for added N, re-emphasizing the role of soils in N retention. Two mechanisms for large net retention of added N were suggested in a review paper in 1998. Of these, abiotic immobilization is supported by a growing set of papers, while assimilation and re-exudation by mycorrhizae is suggested by increased DON concentrations.
Land‐cover changes in China are being powered by demand for food for its growing population and by the nation's transition from a largely rural society to one in which more than half of its people ...are expected to live in cities within two decades. Here we use an analysis of remotely sensed data gathered between 1990 and 2000, to map the magnitude and pattern of changes such as the conversion of grasslands and forests to croplands and the loss of croplands to urban expansion. With high‐resolution (30 m) imagery from Landsat TM for the entire country, we show that between 1990 and 2000 the cropland area increased by 2.99 million hectares and urban areas increased by 0.82 million hectares. In northern China, large areas of woodlands, grasslands and wetlands were converted to croplands, while in southern China large areas of croplands were converted to urban areas. The land‐cover products presented here give the Chinese government and international community, for the first time, an unambiguous understanding of the degree to which the nation's landscape is being altered. Documentation of these changes in a reliable and spatially explicit way forms the foundation for management of China's environment over the coming decades.
In terrestrial high‐latitude regions, observations indicate recent changes in snow cover, permafrost, and soil freeze–thaw transitions due to climate change. These modifications may result in ...temporal shifts in the growing season and the associated rates of terrestrial productivity. Changes in productivity will influence the ability of these ecosystems to sequester atmospheric CO2. We use the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM), which simulates the soil thermal regime, in addition to terrestrial carbon (C), nitrogen and water dynamics, to explore these issues over the years 1960–2100 in extratropical regions (30–90°N). Our model simulations show decreases in snow cover and permafrost stability from 1960 to 2100. Decreases in snow cover agree well with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite observations collected between the years 1972 and 2000, with Pearson rank correlation coefficients between 0.58 and 0.65. Model analyses also indicate a trend towards an earlier thaw date of frozen soils and the onset of the growing season in the spring by approximately 2–4 days from 1988 to 2000. Between 1988 and 2000, satellite records yield a slightly stronger trend in thaw and the onset of the growing season, averaging between 5 and 8 days earlier. In both, the TEM simulations and satellite records, trends in day of freeze in the autumn are weaker, such that overall increases in growing season length are due primarily to earlier thaw. Although regions with the longest snow cover duration displayed the greatest increase in growing season length, these regions maintained smaller increases in productivity and heterotrophic respiration than those regions with shorter duration of snow cover and less of an increase in growing season length. Concurrent with increases in growing season length, we found a reduction in soil C and increases in vegetation C, with greatest losses of soil C occurring in those areas with more vegetation, but simulations also suggest that this trend could reverse in the future. Our results reveal noteworthy changes in snow, permafrost, growing season length, productivity, and net C uptake, indicating that prediction of terrestrial C dynamics from one decade to the next will require that large‐scale models adequately take into account the corresponding changes in soil thermal regimes.
Human Domination of Earth's Ecosystems Vitousek, Peter M.; Mooney, Harold A.; Lubchenco, Jane ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
07/1997, Volume:
277, Issue:
5325
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Human alteration of Earth is substantial and growing. Between one-third and one-half of the land surface has been transformed by human action; the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has ...increased by nearly 30 percent since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution; more atmospheric nitrogen is fixed by humanity than by all natural terrestrial sources combined; more than half of all accessible surface fresh water is put to use by humanity; and about one-quarter of the bird species on Earth have been driven to extinction. By these and other standards, it is clear that we live on a human-dominated planet.
We develop and use a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to study how rates of methane (CH4) emissions and consumption in high‐latitude soils of the Northern Hemisphere have changed ...over the past century in response to observed changes in the region's climate. We estimate that the net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from these soils have increased by an average 0.08 Tg CH4 yr−1 during the twentieth century. Our estimate of the annual net emission rate at the end of the century for the region is 51 Tg CH4 yr−1. Russia, Canada, and Alaska are the major CH4 regional sources to the atmosphere, responsible for 64%, 11%, and 7% of these net emissions, respectively. Our simulations indicate that large interannual variability in net CH4 emissions occurred over the last century. Our analyses of the responses of net CH4 emissions to the past climate change suggest that future global warming will increase net CH4 emissions from the Pan‐Arctic region. The higher net CH4 emissions may increase atmospheric CH4 concentrations to provide a major positive feedback to the climate system.
1 Macrolichens are important for the functioning and biodiversity of cold northern ecosystems and their reindeer-based cultures and economies. 2 We hypothesized that, in climatically milder parts of ...the Arctic, where ecosystems have relatively dense plant canopies, climate warming and/or increased nutrient availability leads to decline in macrolichen abundance as a function of increased abundance of vascular plants. In more open high-arctic or arctic-alpine plant communities such a relationship should be absent. To test this, we synthesized cross-continental arctic vegetation data from ecosystem manipulation experiments simulating mostly warming and increased nutrient availability, and compared these with similar data from natural environmental gradients. 3 Regressions between abundance or biomass of macrolichens and vascular plants were consistently negative across the subarctic and mid-arctic experimental studies. Such a pattern did not emerge in the coldest high-arctic or arctic-alpine sites. The slopes of the negative regressions increased across 10 sites as the climate became milder (as indicated by a simple climatic index) or the vegetation denser (greater site above-ground biomass). 4 Seven natural vegetation gradients in the lower-altitude sub- and mid-arctic zone confirmed the patterns seen in the experimental studies, showing consistent negative relationships between abundance of macrolichens and vascular plants. 5 We conclude that the data supported the hypothesis. Macrolichens in climatically milder arctic ecosystems may decline if and where global changes cause vascular plants to increase in abundance. 6 However, a refining of our findings is needed, for instance by integrating other abiotic and biotic effects such as reindeer grazing feedback on the balance between vascular plants and lichens.
The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed ...using a standard simulation protocol with four process‐based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long‐term(1920–1992), the simulations yielded a time history of terrestrial uptake that is consistent (within the uncertainty) with a long‐term analysis based on ice core and atmospheric CO2 data. Up to 1958, three of four analyses indicated a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere caused by cropland establishment. After 1958, all analyses indicate a net uptake of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems, primarily because of the physiological effects of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2. During the 1980s the simulations indicate that terrestrial ecosystems stored between 0.3 and 1.5 Pg C yr−1, which is within the uncertainty of analysis based on CO2 and O2 budgets. Three of the four models indicated (in accordance with O2 evidence) that the tropics were approximately neutral while a net sink existed in ecosystems north of the tropics. Although all of the models agree that the long‐term effect of climate on carbon storage has been small relative to the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and land use, the models disagree as to whether climate variability and change in the twentieth century has promoted carbon storage or release. Simulated interannual variability from 1958 generally reproduced the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐scale variability in the atmospheric CO2 increase, but there were substantial differences in the magnitude of interannual variability simulated by the models. The analysis of the ability of the models to simulate the changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 suggested that the observed trend may be a consequence of CO2 effects, climate variability, land use changes, or a combination of these effects. The next steps for improving the process‐based simulation of historical terrestrial carbon include (1) the transfer of insight gained from stand‐level process studies to improve the sensitivity of simulated carbon storage responses to changes in CO2 and climate, (2) improvements in the data sets used to drive the models so that they incorporate the timing, extent, and types of major disturbances, (3) the enhancement of the models so that they consider major crop types and management schemes, (4) development of data sets that identify the spatial extent of major crop types and management schemes through time, and (5) the consideration of the effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. The evaluation of the performance of the models in the context of a more complete consideration of the factors influencing historical terrestrial carbon dynamics is important for reducing uncertainties in representing the role of terrestrial ecosystems in future projections of the Earth system.
The Amazon Basin contains almost one-half of the world's undisturbed tropical evergreen forest as well as large areas of tropical savanna,. The forests account for about 10 per cent of the world's ...terrestrial primary productivity and for a similar fraction of the carbon stored in land ecosystems,, and short-term field measurements suggest that these ecosystems are globally important carbon sinks. But tropical land ecosystems have experienced substantial interannual climate variability owing to frequent El Niño episodes in recent decades. Of particular importance to climate change policy is how such climate variations, coupled with increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, affect terrestrial carbon storage. Previous model analyses have demonstrated the importance of temperature in controlling carbon storage,. Here we use a transient process-based biogeochemical model of terrestrial ecosystems, to investigate interannual variations of carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems in response to climate variability and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration during the period 1980 to 1994. In El Niño years, which bring hot, dry weather to much of the Amazon region, the ecosystems act as a source of carbon to the atmosphere (up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon in 1987 and 1992). In other years, these ecosystems act as a carbon sink (up to 0.7 Pg C in 1981 and 1993). These fluxes are large; they compare to a 0.3 Pg C per year source to the atmosphere associated with deforestation inthe Amazon Basin in the early 1990s. Soil moisture, which is affected by both precipitation and temperature, and which affects both plant and soil processes, appears to be an important control on carbon storage.
Rapid and simultaneous changes in temperature, precipitation and the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ are predicted to occur over the next century. Simple, well-validated models of ecosystem function ...are required to predict the effects of these changes. This paper describes an improved version of a forest carbon and water balance model (PnET-II) and the application of the model to predict stand- and regional-level effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO₂ concentration. PnET-II is a simple, generalized, monthly time-step model of water and carbon balances (gross and net) driven by nitrogen availability as expressed through foliar N concentration. Improvements from the original model include a complete carbon balance and improvements in the prediction of canopy phenology, as well as in the computation of canopy structure and photosynthesis. The model was parameterized and run for 4 forest/site combinations and validated against available data for water yield, gross and net carbon exchange and biomass production. The validation exercise suggests that the determination of actual water availability to stands and the occurrence or non-occurrence of soil-based water stress are critical to accurate modeling of forest net primary production (NPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP). The model was then run for the entire NewEngland/New York (USA) region using a 1 km resolution geographic information system. Predicted long-term NEP ranged from −85 to +275 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ for the 4 forest/site combinations, and from −150 to 350 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ for the region, with a regional average of 76 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹. A combination of increased temperature (+6°C), decreased precipitation (−15%) and increased water use efficiency (2×, due to doubling of CO₂) resulted generally in increases in NPP and decreases in water yield over the region.
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