► Land use change impact on hydrology in a small watershed in Kenya is examined. ► The Soil and Water Assessment Tool is used to model hydrologic response to land use change. ► Impact of land use ...change on groundwater recharge and implications for community water sourcing and Lake Nakuru are addressed.
Land cover and land use changes in Kenya’s Rift Valley have altered the hydrologic response of the River Njoro watershed by changing the partitioning of excess rainfall into surface discharge and groundwater recharge. The watershed contributes a significant amount of water to Lake Nakuru National Park, an internationally recognized Ramsar site, as well as groundwater supplies for local communities and the city of Nakuru. Three land use maps representing a 17-year period when the region underwent significant transitions served as inputs for hydrologic modeling using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool, a GIS-based hydrologic modeling system. AGWA was used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a hydrologic model suitable for assessing the relative impact of land cover change on hydrologic response. The SWAT model was calibrated using observation data taken during the 1990s with high annual concordance. Simulation results showed that land use changes have resulted in corresponding increases in surface runoff and decreases in groundwater recharge. Hydrologic changes were highly variable both spatially and temporally, and the uppermost reaches of the forested highlands were most significantly affected. These changes have negative implications for the ecological health of the river system as well as Lake Nakuru and local communities.
It is well known that snow plays an important role in land surface energy balance; however, modelling the subgrid variability of snow is still a challenge in large‐scale hydrological and land surface ...models. High‐resolution snow depth data and statistical methods can reveal some characteristics of the subgrid variability of snow depth, which can be useful in developing models for representing such subgrid variability. In this study, snow depth was measured by airborne Lidar at 0.5‐m resolution over two mountainous areas in south‐western Wyoming, Snowy Range and Laramie Range. To characterize subgrid snow depth spatial distribution, measured snow depth data of these two areas were meshed into 284 grids of 1‐km × 1‐km. Also, nine representative grids of 1‐km × 1‐km were selected for detailed analyses on the geostatistical structure and probability density function of snow depth. It was verified that land cover is one of the important factors controlling spatial variability of snow depth at the 1‐km scale. Probability density functions of snow depth tend to be Gaussian distributions in the forest areas. However, they are eventually skewed as non‐Gaussian distribution, largely due to the no‐snow areas effect, mainly caused by snow redistribution and snow melt. Our findings show the characteristics of subgrid variability of snow depth and clarify the potential factors that need to be considered in modelling subgrid variability of snow depth.
Large-scale brain networks are integral to the coordination of human behaviour, and their anatomy provides insights into the clinical presentation and progression of neurodegenerative illnesses such ...as Alzheimer's disease, which targets the default mode network, and behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia, which targets a more anterior salience network. Although the default mode network is recruited when healthy subjects deliberate about 'personal' moral dilemmas, patients with Alzheimer's disease give normal responses to these dilemmas whereas patients with behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia give abnormal responses to these dilemmas. We hypothesized that this apparent discrepancy between activation- and patient-based studies of moral reasoning might reflect a modulatory role for the salience network in regulating default mode network activation. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging to characterize network activity of patients with behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia and healthy control subjects, we present four converging lines of evidence supporting a causal influence from the salience network to the default mode network during moral reasoning. First, as previously reported, the default mode network is recruited when healthy subjects deliberate about 'personal' moral dilemmas, but patients with behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia producing atrophy in the salience network give abnormally utilitarian responses to these dilemmas. Second, patients with behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia have reduced recruitment of the default mode network compared with healthy control subjects when deliberating about these dilemmas. Third, a Granger causality analysis of functional neuroimaging data from healthy control subjects demonstrates directed functional connectivity from nodes of the salience network to nodes of the default mode network during moral reasoning. Fourth, this Granger causal influence is diminished in patients with behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia. These findings are consistent with a broader model in which the salience network modulates the activity of other large-scale networks, and suggest a revision to a previously proposed 'dual-process' account of moral reasoning. These findings also characterize network interactions underlying abnormal moral reasoning in frontotemporal dementia, which may serve as a model for the aberrant judgement and interpersonal behaviour observed in this disease and in other disorders of social function. More broadly, these findings link recent work on the dynamic interrelationships between large-scale brain networks to observable impairments in dementia syndromes, which may shed light on how diseases that target one network also alter the function of interrelated networks.
In this study, we characterize the snowmelt hydrological response of nine headwater watersheds in southeast Wyoming by separating streamflow into three components using a combination of tracer and ...graphical approaches. First, continuous 15‐min records of specific conductance (SC) from 2016 to 2018 were used to separate streamflow into annual contributions, representing water that contributes to streamflow in a given year that entered the watershed in the same year being considered, and perennial contributions, representing water that contributes to streamflow in a given year that entered the watershed in previous years. Then, diurnal streamflow cycles occurring during the snowmelt season were used to graphically separate annual contributions into rapid diurnal snowmelt contributions, representing water with the relatively fastest hydrological response and shortest residence time, and delayed annual contributions, representing water with relatively longer residence time in the watershed before becoming streamflow. On average, mean annual total streamflow was comprised of between 22% and 46% perennial contributions, 7% and 14% rapid diurnal snowmelt contributions, and 46% and 55% delayed annual contributions across the watersheds. A hysteresis index describing SC‐discharge patterns indicated that, annually, most watersheds showed negative, concave, anti‐clockwise hysteretic direction suggesting faster flow pathways dominate streamflow on the rising limb of the annual hydrograph relative to the falling limb. At the daily timescale during snowmelt‐induced diurnal streamflow cycles, hysteresis was negative, but with a clockwise direction, implying that rapid diurnal snowmelt contributions generated from the concurrent daily snowmelt, with lower SC, arrived after delayed annual contribution peaks and preferentially contributed on the falling limb of diurnal cycles. South‐facing watersheds were more susceptible to early season snowmelt at slower rates, resulting in less annual and more perennial contributions. Conversely, north‐facing watersheds had longer snow persistence and larger proportions of annual contributions and rapid diurnal snowmelt contributions. Watersheds with surficial geology dominated by glacial deposits had a lower proportion of rapid diurnal snowmelt contributions compared to watersheds with large percentages of bedrock surficial geology.
Streamflow was separated into three components using geochemical and graphical techniques (d). Specific conductance was used to separate perennial and annual contributions following a geochemical mass‐balance method. Rapid diurnal snowmelt contributions were separated from annual contributions based on distinct snowmelt‐induced diurnal cycles, whilst remaining streamflow were from delayed annual contributions. Specific conductance and discharge show hysteretic relationships at daily (a‐b) and annual scales (c). A hysteresis index was calculated at both annual and daily scales. This index was significantly correlated to hydrograph components and watershed properties. At the daily scale (a‐b), specific conductance and discharge display clockwise hysteresis reflecting lower concentration snowmelt water preferentially contributing to streamflow during the falling limb of snowmelt‐induced diurnal cycles (colours represent hour past noon). The hysteresis index is generally larger during the rising limb of the annual hydrograph (a) and becomes smaller on the falling limb of the annual hydrograph (b) indicating that flowpath heterogeneity is greater during the rising limb compared to the falling limb. On an annual scale (c), specific conductance–discharge hysteresis shows a counter‐clockwise relationship, suggesting that lower specific conductance snowmelt water preferentially contributes to streamflow on the rising limb of the annual hydrograph (colours denote day of water year).
Potential data sets for landcover classification, such as Landsat (or pre-processed data such as the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD)), are often too coarse for fine-scale research needs or are ...cost-prohibitive (Quickbird, Ikonos and Geoeye). Repeated attempts at classifying high spatial resolution data, National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery, based on traditional techniques, such as a maximum likelihood supervised classification, have failed to produce a product with sufficient accuracy. We used the ensemble Random Forests (RFs) classifier to classify landcover at 1 m resolution using 2009 NAIP imagery in south-eastern Wyoming. We classified riparian areas within a 225 km
2
study area, at 1 m spatial resolution, using RFs with emphasis on riparian corridors that yielded a land cover map with overall accuracy of 81% and a kappa coefficient of 79%. Users' accuracy of important riparian vegetation species, aspen, riparian grasses and willow were 79%, 81% and 83%, respectively. Techniques presented in this paper, which exploit free NAIP imagery for landcover classification, represent an inexpensive and reliable alternative to purchasing commercial imagery when high spatial resolution landcover data is needed.
Comprehension of insincere communication is an important aspect of social cognition requiring visual perspective taking, emotion reading, and understanding others’ thoughts, opinions, and intentions. ...Someone who is lying intends to hide their insincerity from the listener, while a sarcastic speaker wants the listener to recognize they are speaking insincerely. We investigated whether face-to-face testing of comprehending insincere communication would effectively discriminate among neurodegenerative disease patients with different patterns of real-life social deficits. We examined ability to comprehend lies and sarcasm from a third-person perspective, using contextual cues, in 102 patients with one of four neurodegenerative diseases (behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia bvFTD, Alzheimer’s disease AD, progressive supranuclear palsy PSP, and vascular cognitive impairment) and 77 healthy older adults (normal controls – NCs). Participants answered questions about videos depicting social interactions involving deceptive, sarcastic, or sincere speech using The Awareness of Social Inference Test. All subjects equally understood sincere remarks, but bvFTD patients displayed impaired comprehension of lies and sarcasm compared with NCs. In other groups, impairment was not disease-specific but was proportionate to general cognitive impairment. Analysis of the task components revealed that only bvFTD patients were impaired on perspective taking and emotion reading elements and that both bvFTD and PSP patients had impaired ability to represent others’ opinions and intentions (i.e., theory of mind). Test performance correlated with informants’ ratings of subjects’ empathy, perspective taking and neuropsychiatric symptoms in everyday life. Comprehending insincere communication is complex and requires multiple cognitive and emotional processes vulnerable across neurodegenerative diseases. However, bvFTD patients show uniquely focal and severe impairments at every level of theory of mind and emotion reading, leading to an inability to identify obvious examples of deception and sarcasm. This is consistent with studies suggesting this disease targets a specific neural network necessary for perceiving social salience and predicting negative social outcomes.
Background Although combination treatment with bevacizumab (humanized monoclonal antibody against vascular endothelial growth factor) and chemotherapy improves survival of patients with various ...metastatic carcinomas, an increased risk of arterial thromboembolic events has been observed in some trials. We characterized this risk by performing post hoc analyses of randomized controlled trials that evaluated combination treatment with bevacizumab and chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone. Low-dose aspirin was permitted in these trials, and its safety was also analyzed. Methods Data were pooled from five randomized controlled trials that included a total of 1745 patients with metastatic colorectal, breast, or non–small-cell lung carcinoma. The risk of an arterial or venous thromboembolic event was assessed by simple incidence rates, rates per 100 person-years, and/or hazard ratios (HRs). The association between patient characteristics and risk of an arterial thromboembolic event was investigated primarily by Cox proportional hazards regression. The relationship between low-dose aspirin and bleeding was explored by incidence rates and rates per 100 person-years. Results Combined treatment with bevacizumab and chemotherapy, compared with chemotherapy alone, was associated with increased risk for an arterial thromboembolic event (HR = 2.0, 95% confidence interval CI = 1.05 to 3.75; P = .031) but not for a venous thromboembolic event (HR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.66 to 1.20; P = .44). The absolute rate of developing an arterial thromboembolism was 5.5 events per 100 person-years for those receiving combination therapy and 3.1 events per 100 person-years for those receiving chemotherapy alone (ratio = 1.8, 95% CI = 0.94 to 3.33; P = .076). Development of an arterial thromboembolic event was associated with a prior arterial thromboembolic event (P<.001) or age of 65 years or older (P = .01). Baseline or on-study aspirin use was associated with modest increases in grade 3 and 4 bleeding events in both treatment groups, from 3.6% to 4.7% for bevacizumab-treated patients and from 1.7% to 2.2% for control subjects. Conclusions Combination treatment with bevacizumab and chemotherapy, compared with chemotherapy alone, was associated with an increased risk of arterial thromboembolism but not venous thromboembolism.
Conserving a declining species that is facing many threats, including overlap of its habitats with energy extraction activities, depends upon identifying and prioritizing the value of the habitats ...that remain. In addition, habitat quality is often compromised when source habitats are lost or fragmented due to anthropogenic development. Our objective was to build an ecological model to classify and map habitat quality in terms of source or sink dynamics for Greater Sage-Grouse (
Centrocercus urophasianus
) in the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), a developing coalbed natural gas field in south-central Wyoming, USA. We used occurrence and survival modeling to evaluate relationships between environmental and anthropogenic variables at multiple spatial scales and for all female summer life stages, including nesting, brood-rearing, and non-brooding females. For each life stage, we created resource selection functions (RSFs). We weighted the RSFs and combined them to form a female summer occurrence map. We modeled survival also as a function of spatial variables for nest, brood, and adult female summer survival. Our survival models were mapped as survival probability functions individually and then combined with fixed vital rates in a fitness metric model that, when mapped, predicted habitat productivity (productivity map). Our results demonstrate a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables at multiple scales that were predictive of occurrence and survival. We created a source-sink map by overlaying our female summer occurrence map and productivity map to predict habitats contributing to population surpluses (source habitats) or deficits (sink habitat) and low-occurrence habitats on the landscape. The source-sink map predicted that of the Sage-Grouse habitat within the ARPA, 30% was primary source, 29% was secondary source, 4% was primary sink, 6% was secondary sink, and 31% was low occurrence. Our results provide evidence that energy development and avoidance of energy infrastructure were probably reducing the amount of source habitat within the ARPA landscape. Our source-sink map provides managers with a means of prioritizing habitats for conservation planning based on source and sink dynamics. The spatial identification of high value (i.e., primary source) as well as suboptimal (i.e., primary sink) habitats allows for informed energy development to minimize effects on local wildlife populations.
Automation in baseflow separation procedures allowed fast and convenient baseflow and baseflow index (BF and BFI) estimation for studies including multiple watersheds and covering large ...spatio‐temporal scales. While most of the existing algorithms are developed and tested extensively for rainfall‐ and baseflow‐dominated systems, little attention is paid on their suitability for snowmelt‐dominated systems. Current publishing practice in regional‐scale studies is to omit BF and BFI uncertainty evaluation or sensitivity analysis. Instead, “standard” and “previously recommended” parameterizations are transferred from rainfall/BF to snowmelt‐dominated systems. We believe that this practice should be abandoned. First, we demonstrate explicitly that the three most popular heuristic automated BF separation methods—Lyne–Hollick and Eckhardt recursive digital filters, and the U.K. Institute of Hydrology smoothed minima method—produce a wide range of annual BF and BFI estimates due to parameter sensitivity during the annual snowmelt period. Then, we propose a solution for cases when BF and BFI calibration is not possible, namely excluding the snowmelt‐dominated period from the analysis. We developed an automated filtering procedure, which divides the hydrograph into pre‐snowbelt, post‐snowmelt, and snowmelt periods. The filter was tested successfully on 218 continuous water years of daily streamflow data for four snowmelt‐dominated headwater watersheds located in Wyoming (60–837 km2). The post‐snowmelt BF and BFI metric can be used for characterizing summer low‐flows for snowmelt‐dominated systems. Our results show that post‐snowmelt BF and BFI sensitivity to filter parameterization is reduced compared with the sensitivity of annual BF and BFI and is similar to the sensitivity levels for rainfall/baseflow systems.
PDF
