Risk stratification of patients with chest pain and a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) concentration <upper reference limit (URL) is challenging. The aim of this study was to develop and ...externally validate clinical models for risk prediction of 90-day death or myocardial infarction in patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain and an initial hs-cTnT concentration <URL.
Four machine-learning-based models and one logistic regression (LR) model were trained on 4075 patients (single-centre Spanish cohort) and externally validated on 3609 patients (international prospective Advantageous Predictors of Acute Coronary syndromes Evaluation cohort). Models were compared with GRACE and HEART scores and a single undetectable hs-cTnT-based strategy (u-cTn; hs-cTnT < 5 ng/L and time from symptoms onset >180 min). Probability thresholds for safe discharge were derived in the derivation cohort. The endpoint occurred in 105 (2.6%) patients in the training set and 98 (2.7%) in the external validation set. Gradient boosting full (GBf) showed the best discrimination (area under the curve = 0.808). Calibration was good for the reduced neural network and LR models. Gradient boosting full identified the highest proportion of patients for safe discharge (36.7 vs. 23.4 vs. 27.2%; GBf vs. LR vs. u-cTn, respectively) with similar safety (missed endpoint per 1000 patients: 2.2 vs. 3.5 vs. 3.1, respectively). All derived models were superior to the HEART and GRACE scores (P < 0.001).
Machine-learning and LR prediction models were superior to the HEART, GRACE, and u-cTn for risk stratification of patients with chest pain and a baseline hs-cTnT <URL. Gradient boosting full models best balanced discrimination, calibration, and efficacy, reducing the need for serial hs-cTnT determination by more than one-third.
ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00470587, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00470587.
Decision-making is challenging in patients with chest pain and normal high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT; <99th percentile; <14 ng/L) at hospital arrival. Most of these patients might be ...discharged early. We investigated clinical data and hs-cTnT concentrations for risk stratification. This is a retrospective study including 4476 consecutive patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain and first normal hs-cTnT. The primary endpoint was one-year death or acute myocardial infarction, and the secondary endpoint added urgent revascularization. The number of primary and secondary endpoints was 173 (3.9%) and 252 (5.6%). Mean hs-cTnT concentrations were 6.9 ± 2.5 ng/L. Undetectable (<5 ng/L) hs-cTnT (
= 1847, 41%) had optimal negative predictive value (99.1%) but suboptimal sensitivity (90.2%) and discrimination accuracy (AUC = 0.664) for the primary endpoint. Multivariable analysis was used to identify the predictive clinical variables. The clinical model showed good discrimination accuracy (AUC = 0.810). The addition of undetectable hs-cTnT (≥ or <5 ng/L; HR, hazard ratio = 3.80; 95% CI, confidence interval 2.27-6.35;
= 0.00001) outperformed the clinical model alone (AUC = 0.836,
= 0.002 compared to the clinical model). Measurable hs-cTnT concentrations (between detection limit and 99th percentile; per 0.1 ng/L, HR = 1.13; CI 1.06-1.20;
= 0.0001) provided further predictive information (AUC = 0.844;
= 0.05 compared to the clinical plus undetectable hs-cTnT model). The results were reproducible for the secondary endpoint and 30-day events. Clinical assessment, undetectable hs-cTnT and measurable hs-cTnT concentrations must be considered for decision-making after a single negative hs-cTnT result in patients presenting to the emergency department with acute chest pain.
Undetectable high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) in a single determination upon admission may rule out acute coronary syndrome. We investigated undetectable hs-cTnT (<detection limit; <5 ng/l) ...together with clinical risk scores (GRACE, TIMI, HEART and a previously published simple score), for one-year outcomes in patients with chest pain and normal hs-cTnT (<99th percentile; <14 ng/l) upon admission.
This study was a retrospective design involving 2254 consecutive patients (July 2016-November 2017). The primary endpoint was one-year death or acute myocardial infarction; the secondary endpoint added unstable angina requiring revascularization. Early (<90 minutes since pain onset,
= 661) and late (
= 1593) presenters were separately considered.
A total of 56 (2.5%) patients reached the primary endpoint and 91 (4%) the secondary endpoint. Undetectable hs-cTnT had a poor C-statistic in early and late presenters (0.648 and 0.703, respectively). Adding hs-cTnT measurable concentrations above the detection limit (as continuous variable) significantly enhanced the C-statistics (0.754 and 0.847, respectively). Addition of the HEART (0.809,
= 0.005) or simple clinical scores (0.804,
= 0.02) further improved the model and significantly reclassified patient risk, in early presenters. The results were similar for the secondary endpoint. The TIMI risk score performed worse and the GRACE score did not give additional information. In late presenters, no clinical score provided significant additional information over hs-cTnT.
Diagnostic algorithms should consider not only whether hs-cTnT is above or below the detection limit but also its concentration if above, for risk stratification over one year in patients with initial normal hs-cTnT. The clinical scores provide valuable additional information in early presenters.
Background/Purpose
We investigated the incidence, risk factors, clinical characteristics and outcomes of acute pancreatitis (AP) in patients with COVID‐19 attending the emergency department (ED), ...before hospitalization.
Methods
We retrospectively reviewed all COVID patients diagnosed with AP in 62 Spanish EDs (20% of Spanish EDs, COVID‐AP) during the COVID outbreak. We formed two control groups: COVID patients without AP (COVID‐non‐AP) and non‐COVID patients with AP (non‐COVID‐AP). Unadjusted comparisons between cases and controls were performed regarding 59 baseline and clinical characteristics and four outcomes.
Results
We identified 54 AP in 74 814 patients with COVID‐19 attending the ED (frequency = 0.72‰, 95% CI = 0.54‐0.94‰). This frequency was lower than in non‐COVID patients (2231/1 388 879, 1.61‰, 95% CI = 1.54‐1.67; OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.34‐0.58). Etiology of AP was similar in both groups, being biliary origin in about 50%. Twenty‐six clinical characteristics of COVID patients were associated with a higher risk of developing AP: abdominal pain (OR = 59.4, 95% CI = 23.7‐149), raised blood amylase (OR = 31.8; 95% CI = 1.60‐632) and vomiting (OR = 15.8, 95% CI = 6.69‐37.2) being the strongest, and some inflammatory markers (C‐reactive protein, procalcitonin, platelets, D‐dimer) were more increased. Compared to non‐COVID‐AP, COVID‐AP patients differed in 23 variables; the strongest ones related to COVID symptoms, but less abdominal pain was reported, pancreatic enzymes raise was lower, and severity (estimated by BISAP and SOFA score at ED arrival) was higher. The in‐hospital mortality (adjusted for age and sex) of COVID‐AP did not differ from COVID‐non‐AP (OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 0.45‐245) but was higher than non‐COVID‐AP (OR = 2.46, 95% CI = 1.35‐4.48).
Conclusions
Acute pancreatitis as presenting form of COVID‐19 in the ED is unusual (<1‰ cases). Some clinically distinctive characteristics are present compared to the remaining COVID patients and can help to identify this unusual manifestation. In‐hospital mortality of COVID‐AP does not differ from COVID‐non‐AP but is higher than non‐COVID‐AP, and the higher severity of AP in COVID patients could partially contribute to this increment.
Highlight
Miró and colleagues found that acute pancreatitis was less frequent in COVID patients than in non‐COVID patients attending the emergency department, suggesting the absence of a direct relationship with SARS‐CoV‐2. This report is the first to present the distinctive characteristics of COVID patients at increased risk of presenting acute pancreatitis.
To asses the prognostic value of diagnostic scales in mortality of community-adquired sepsis and added value of additional parameters.
Prospective observational study of patients with ...community-adquired sepsis in the Emergency Room of University Hospital. The study population were patients presented in the Emergency Room with confirmed infection and practicians sepsis diagnosis. Demographics, triage vital signs, inhaled oxygen fraction, inflammatory markers, biochemistry, all-cause mortality during hospitalization and three months after were recorded. Prognostic value of qSOFA, NEWS, SOFA, SIRS, and amplified scales were calculated by using logistic regression and ROC curves.
201 patients, 54% male, average age 77±11,2 years were included. Sixty-three (31.5%) died during hospitalization and 24 (12%) three months after discharge. At the time of admission vital signs related with in-hospital mortality were Glasgow Coma Scale <13, respiratory rate ≥22 bpm, temperature, oxygen desaturation, high flow oxygen therapy and heart rate. Patients dead in-hospital had lower PaCO2, higher lactate, glucose and creatinine. Greater predictive capacity of the scales, from higher to lower, was: qSOFA, NEWS2, SOFA and SIRS. Amplified scales with lactate >2mg/dl, glucose, blood level >190mg/dl and PaCO2 <35mmHg improved predictive value.
Amplified-qSOFA and amplified-NEWS2 scales at Emergency Department may offer a better prognostic of septic patients mortality.
There is a lack of knowledge about the real incidence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in patients with COVID-19, their clinical characteristics, and their prognoses.
We investigated the incidence, ...clinical characteristics, risk factors, and outcomes of ACS in patients with COVID-19 in the emergency department.
We retrospectively reviewed all COVID-19 patients diagnosed with ACS in 62 Spanish emergency departments between March and April 2020 (the first wave of COVID-19). We formed 2 control groups: COVID-19 patients without ACS (control A) and non-COVID-19 patients with ACS (control B). Unadjusted comparisons between cases and control subjects were performed regarding 58 characteristics and outcomes.
We identified 110 patients with ACS in 74,814 patients with COVID-19 attending the ED (1.48% 95% confidence interval {CI} 1.21-1.78%). This incidence was lower than that observed in non-COVID-19 patients (3.64% 95% CI 3.54-3.74%; odds ratio OR 0.40 95% CI 0.33-0.49). The clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 associated with a higher risk of presenting ACS were: previous coronary artery disease, age ≥60 years, hypertension, chest pain, raised troponin, and hypoxemia. The need for hospitalization and admission to intensive care and in-hospital mortality were higher in cases than in control group A (adjusted OR aOR 6.36 95% CI 1.84-22.1, aOR 4.63 95% CI 1.88-11.4, and aOR 2.46 95% CI 1.15-5.25). When comparing cases with control group B, the aOR of admission to intensive care was 0.41 (95% CI 0.21-0.80), while the aOR for in-hospital mortality was 5.94 (95% CI 2.84-12.4).
The incidence of ACS in patients with COVID-19 attending the emergency department was low, around 1.48%, but could be increased in some circumstances. Patients with COVID-19 with ACS had a worse prognosis than control subjects with higher in-hospital mortality.
We investigated the incidence, risk factors, clinical characteristics and outcomes of acute pancreatitis (AP) in patients with COVID-19 attending the emergency department (ED), before ...hospitalization.
We retrospectively reviewed all COVID patients diagnosed with AP in 62 Spanish EDs (20% of Spanish EDs, COVID-AP) during the COVID outbreak. We formed two control groups: COVID patients without AP (COVID-non-AP) and non-COVID patients with AP (non-COVID-AP). Unadjusted comparisons between cases and controls were performed regarding 59 baseline and clinical characteristics and four outcomes.
We identified 54 AP in 74 814 patients with COVID-19 attending the ED (frequency = 0.72‰, 95% CI = 0.54-0.94‰). This frequency was lower than in non-COVID patients (2231/1 388 879, 1.61‰, 95% CI = 1.54-1.67; OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.34-0.58). Etiology of AP was similar in both groups, being biliary origin in about 50%. Twenty-six clinical characteristics of COVID patients were associated with a higher risk of developing AP: abdominal pain (OR = 59.4, 95% CI = 23.7-149), raised blood amylase (OR = 31.8; 95% CI = 1.60-632) and vomiting (OR = 15.8, 95% CI = 6.69-37.2) being the strongest, and some inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, platelets, D-dimer) were more increased. Compared to non-COVID-AP, COVID-AP patients differed in 23 variables; the strongest ones related to COVID symptoms, but less abdominal pain was reported, pancreatic enzymes raise was lower, and severity (estimated by BISAP and SOFA score at ED arrival) was higher. The in-hospital mortality (adjusted for age and sex) of COVID-AP did not differ from COVID-non-AP (OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 0.45-245) but was higher than non-COVID-AP (OR = 2.46, 95% CI = 1.35-4.48).
Acute pancreatitis as presenting form of COVID-19 in the ED is unusual (<1‰ cases). Some clinically distinctive characteristics are present compared to the remaining COVID patients and can help to identify this unusual manifestation. In-hospital mortality of COVID-AP does not differ from COVID-non-AP but is higher than non-COVID-AP, and the higher severity of AP in COVID patients could partially contribute to this increment.
Objetivo: Conocer las características sociodemográficas y clínicas de los pacientes atendidos por dolor osteomuscular crónico usuarios de dos Centros de Atención Primaria, uno rural y otro urbano, y ...ver si existen diferencias entre ellos. Conocer la relación entre las distintas causas de dolor crónico musculoesquelético y las variables sociodemográficas y clínicas estudiadas. Material y métodos: Diseño descriptivo observacional transversal. Estudio multicéntrico en el que intervienen los Centros de Salud del Puerto de Sagunto (Valencia) y del Alto Palancia (Castellón). Muestra de 320 usuarios de los citados centros que padezcan dolor crónico de origen osteomuscular. Recogida de datos a través de historias clínicas y de entrevistas personales durante el segundo semestre de 2003 y primero de 2004. Resultados: El dolor crónico de origen osteomuscular es más frecuente en mujeres, aumenta conforme avanza la edad, en personas casadas y viudas, de nivel sociocultural bajo y con elevada comorbilidad asociada. Provoca alto índice de incapacidades laborales. Las enfermedades que más frecuentemente provocan este tipo de dolor son la artrosis y las lum-balgias crónicas. La artrosis es la principal causa de dolor, siendo más frecuente en el medio rural. Las lumbalgias se relacionan con la actividad física realizada, predominando en la zona industrial. La mayoría de personas refieren dolor crónico osteomuscular de larga evolución.
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