This work presents a comprehensive intercomparison of different alternatives for the calibration of seasonal forecasts, ranging from simple bias adjustment (BA)—e.g. quantile mapping—to more ...sophisticated ensemble recalibration (RC) methods—e.g. non-homogeneous Gaussian regression, which build on the temporal correspondence between the climate model and the corresponding observations to generate reliable predictions. To be as critical as possible, we validate the raw model and the calibrated forecasts in terms of a number of metrics which take into account different aspects of forecast quality (association, accuracy, discrimination and reliability). We focus on one-month lead forecasts of precipitation and temperature from four state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems, three of them included in the Copernicus Climate Change Service dataset (ECMWF-SEAS5, UK Met Office-GloSea5 and Météo France-System5) for boreal winter and summer over two illustrative regions with different skill characteristics (Europe and Southeast Asia). Our results indicate that both BA and RC methods effectively correct the large raw model biases, which is of paramount importance for users, particularly when directly using the climate model outputs to run impact models, or when computing climate indices depending on absolute values/thresholds. However, except for particular regions and/or seasons (typically with high skill), there is only marginal added value—with respect to the raw model outputs—beyond this bias removal. For those cases, RC methods can outperform BA ones, mostly due to an improvement in reliability. Finally, we also show that whereas an increase in the number of members only modestly affects the results obtained from calibration, longer hindcast periods lead to improved forecast quality, particularly for RC methods.
The present paper is a follow-on of the work presented in Manzanas et al. (Clim Dyn 53(3–4):1287–1305, 2019) which provides a comprehensive intercomparison of alternatives for the post-processing ...(statistical adjustment, calibration and downscaling) of seasonal forecasts for a particularly interesting region, Southeast Asia. To answer the questions that were raised in the preceding work, apart from Bias Adjustment (BA) and ensemble Re-Calibration (RC) methods—which transform directly the variable of interest,—we include here more complex Perfect Prognosis (PP) and Model Outputs Statistics (MOS) downscaling techniques—which operate on a selection of large-scale model circulation variables linked to the local observed variable of interest. Moreover, we test the suitability of BA and PP methods for the post-processing of daily—not only seasonal—time-series, which are often needed in a variety of sectoral applications (crop, hydrology, etc.) or to compute specific climate indices (heat waves, fire weather index, etc.). In addition, we also undertake an assessment of the effect that observational uncertainty may have for statistical post-processing. Our results indicate that PP methods (and to a lesser extent MOS) are highly case-dependent and their application must be carefully analyzed for the region/season/application of interest, since they can either improve or degrade the raw model outputs. Therefore, for those cases for which the use of these methods cannot be carefully tested by experts, our overall recommendation would be the use of BA methods, which seem to be a safe, easy to implement alternative that provide competitive results in most situations. Nevertheless, all methods (including BA ones) seem to be sensitive to observational uncertainty, especially regarding the reproduction of extremes and spells. For MOS and PP methods, this issue can even lead to important regional differences in interannual skill. The lessons learnt from this work can substantially benefit a wide range of end-users in different socio-economic sectors, and can also have important implications for the development of high-quality climate services.
Wind measurements from SeaWinds scatterometer on the NASA QuikSCAT satellite and wind forecasts from two different operational numerical models provided by MeteoGalicia were compared for a 4-year ...period (2002–2005) in Galician coast environment. Available wind data buoy measurements were also used to complement the analysis. A statistical analysis based on mean errors, root mean square errors and complex correlation was performed from spatial, temporal and directional points of view.
In the spatial comparison no significant differences between models and satellite were observed and the error magnitudes of the models are compatible with typical QuikSCAT errors. The suitability of satellite wind estimations for data assimilation in these models must be further investigated. Negative bias of models with respect to the satellite was also confirmed with buoy data, in such a way that models overestimation is smaller than the satellite one. Big errors in wind direction appear in southeasterly and southwesterly winds for both satellite and models, contributing to high RMSE values when compared to buoy data. These errors were mainly attributed to the effect of insufficient spatial resolution near shore.
An integrated system named METEOMOHID, developed by MeteoGalicia in the first stage of the
Prestige accident in November 2002 was used successfully in an operational form to support decision making ...and assist in recovering tasks. Afterwards, METEOMOHID has been enhanced with the aim of developing an operational oceanography system to be used in the NW of the Iberian Peninsula. The METEOMOHID system includes local area hydrodynamic coastal ocean modelling (MOHID), real time atmospheric forcing from a local meteorological model (ARPS). Using the available data from the
Prestige crisis, a set of simulations were designed in order to reproduce the oil spill drift. The implementation of a detailed vertical resolution in the model has allowed obtaining a detailed surface dynamic, improving our knowledge of the behaviour of tarballs into the water column. Thus, the wind-driven Eckman drift, the direct dragging of the wind were detached, and the possible existence of subsurface oil was assessed. In addition, the present work evaluates the effects of introducing climatologic large scale currents in the METEOMOHID system.
A wave forecasting system based on the third generation model WAVEWATCH III was developed by MeteoGalicia (Regional Meteorological Office of Galicia). During 2005 two implementations of the wave ...forecasting system were operational, running daily to perform a wave forecast at different scales for the next 96 h. In the initial implementation, wave generation was calculated using the global NCEP/NOAA (National Center for Environmental Prediction) GFS (Global Forecast System) and MeteoGalicia ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) 10-m wind forcing as input. New improvements to this system were introduced in spring 2005 using only GFS wind forcing. The influence on wave forecasting of these two different wind inputs is analysed in detail and results are compared with one year field data from the Puertos del Estado-Clima Marítimo (PE-CM) deep water buoys network.
BACKGROUND: Apocrine hidrocystoma is a benign cystic tumour with apocrine differentiation. Although most cases are solitary tumours, multiple tumours may occur. Surgical removal is the usual ...treatment for apocrine hidrocystoma, but it may be troublesome and disfiguring in cases with multiple tumours. OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy and cosmetic outcome of carbon dioxide laser vaporization in the treatment of multiple apocrine hidrocystomas. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 11 lesions in three adult patients were treated with carbon dioxide laser vaporization using a continuous and defocused mode, with a power density of 5 J/cm 2 . The lesions were localized lateral to the outer canthus, on the free edge of the eyelids, and on the ear. Only a single session of treatment was performed for each lesion. Photographic controls were taken before and after treatment. RESULTS: The lesions cleared after laser treatment without residual changes, and a successful cosmetic result was obtained. CONCLUSION: Carbon dioxide laser is an efficient method of the treatment for multiple apocrine hidrocystomas.
On 13 November 2002 a single-hulled tank steamer Prestige, with over 77 000 tonnes of fuel oil on board, was severely affected by high winds and turbulent sea very near the Spanish coast and began to ...spill fuel, starting one of the worst ecological disasters ever recorded. From the beginning of the Prestige disaster, MeteoGalicia, a meteorological agency of the Galician Government, was deeply involved in developing an operational coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling system for oil-spill tracking called METEO-MOHID. In a general sense, results indicated good agreement between predictions and real-time observations. Results suggest that METEO-MOHID is a useful tool to support mitigation and relief tasks involving marine-pollution hazards, and is very useful for operational oceanography.
A hydrostatic meteorological model, "PMETEO," was developed for short-range forecasts for a high-resolution limited area located in the northwest region of Spain. Initial and lateral boundary ...conditions are externally provided by a coarse-mesh model that has much poorer horizontal and vertical resolution than the fine PMETEO grid. Limitations of limited-area models due to lateral boundary conditions are widely known, given that they can have a large impact on the evolution of the predicted fields through the propagation of errors into the interior of the domain. The guidelines to minimize this problem depend on the particular circumstances of the model application. In this case, a specific treatment of the initial and time-dependent boundary conditions is presented that obtains the best accuracy in the model results, because PMETEO is run operationally to predict air quality levels around a power plant.
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