Superiority of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) over the Child-Pugh score for the prediction of outcome in patients with chronic liver disease is still debated. The main objective of this ...prospective study was to evaluate the accuracy of the Child-Pugh score, the MELD, and the new score, MELD-Na, combining MELD and serum sodium (Na), for the prediction of 6-month mortality in cirrhotic patients.
In all, 308 consecutive cirrhotic patients were included. Child-Pugh score, MELD, and MELD-Na were calculated at the inclusion.
In all, 154 patients (50.0%) had decompensated cirrhosis. Forty-five patients died during the 6-month follow-up: 3 in the subgroup of compensated cirrhosis and 42 in the decompensated subgroup (1.9% vs. 27.3%, P<10(-3)). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the prediction of 6-month mortality of Child-Pugh score, MELD, and MELD-Na were, respectively, in the whole population: 0.882, 0.866, and 0.887 (P=NS), and in the subgroup of decompensated cirrhosis: 0.796, 0.800, and 0.833 (P=NS). MELD-Na had the highest accuracy but the difference reached statistical significance only with the Child-Pugh score in the subgroup of patients with decompensated cirrhosis (79.9% vs. 68.0%, P=0.006). The combination of Child-Pugh score or MELD with other variables reflecting the circulatory dysfunction observed in end-stage liver disease significantly improved the accuracy of these 2 models.
Child-Pugh score remains a simple and effective tool for the prognostic assessment of cirrhotic patients at bedside and can still be used in clinical practice. MELD, and especially MELD-Na, should be reserved for patients with decompensated cirrhosis.
AbstractIntroduction and aimData on the efficacy and tolerance of interferon-free treatment in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) in elderly patients are limited in phase II-III trials. Material and methodsA ...prospective cohort of adult patients with CHC treated in French general hospitals. ResultsData from 1,123 patients, distributed into four age groups, were analyzed. Of these, 278 were > 64 years old (fourth quartile) and 133 were > 73 years old (tenth decile). Elderly patients weighed less, were more frequently treatment-experienced women infected with genotype 1b or 2, while they less frequently had genotype 3 or HIV coinfection, but had more frequent comorbidities and drug consumption. Half of the patients had cirrhosis, whatever their ages. The main treatment regimens were sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (37.8%), sofosbuvir/daclatasvir (31.8%), sofosbuvir/simeprevir (16.9%), sofosbuvir/ribavirin (7.8%); ribavirin was given to 24% of patients. The overall sustained virological response (SVR) rate was 91.0 % (95% CI: 89.292.5%) with no difference according to age. Logistic regression of the independent predictors of SVR were albumin, hepatocellular carcinoma and treatment regimen, but not age. The rate of severe adverse events (66 in 59/1062 5.6% patients) tended to be greater in patients older than 64 years of age (21/261,8.1%), but the only independent predictors of SAE by logistic regression were cirrhosis and baseline hemoglobin. Patient-reported overall tolerance was excellent in all age groups, and patient-reported fatigue decreased during and after treatment, independent of age. ConclusionsThe high efficacy and tolerance of interferon-free regimens is confirmed in elderly patients in real-life conditions.
AIM: To compare the incidence of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in cirrhotic outpatients and inpatients undergoing therapeutic paracentesis METHODS: From January 1 to May 31, 2004, 1041 patients ...from 70 different hospitals underwent 2123 therapeutic abdominal paracentesis (AP) performed as a outpatient procedure in 355 and as inpatient procedure in 686 cases respectively. The following parameters were compared prospectively between outpatients and inpatients: spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) prevalence, age, gender, cause of cirrhosis, symptoms, score and grade according to Child-Pugh classification, cirrhosis complications, antibiotics treatment, serum creatinine, platelet count and ascitic protein concentration. RESULTS: SBP was observed in 91 patients. In the whole population the SBP prevalence was 8.7% (95%CI: 7.2-10.6) it was 11.7% (95%CI: 9.5-14.3) in inpatients and 3.1% (95%CI: 1.7-5.5) in outpatients (P < 0.00001). SBP prevalence was 8.3% (95%CI: 4.3-15.6) in symptomatic outpatients vs 1.2% (95%CI: 0.4-3.4) in asymptomatic outpatients (P < 0.002). Patients undergoing outpatient AP were significantly different from those undergoing inpatient AP; they were older (61.1 ± 11.1 years vs 59.4 ± 11.7 years; P = 0.028), cause of cirrhosis was less often alcohol (83 .7 vs 88.2%; P < 0.001), Child-Pugh score was lower (8.9 vs 10.1; P < 0.001) and more often B than C (63.7% vs 38%; P < 0.001). In addition, in outpatients the platelet count was higher (161 ± 93 Giga/L vs 143 ± 89 Giga/L; P = 0.003), serum total bilirubin concentration was lower (38.2 ± 60.7 μmol/L vs 96.3 ± 143.3 μmol/L; P < 0.0001), and ascitic protein concentration higher (17.9 ± 10.7 g/L vs 14.5 ± 10.9 g/L; P < 0.001) than in inpatients. CONCLUSION: In asymptomatic cirrhotic outpatients, the incidence of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis is low thus exploratory paracentesis could be avoided in these patients without significant risk.
Background & Aims We performed a prospective study to investigate the effects of a sustained viral response (SVR) on outcomes of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and compensated ...cirrhosis. Methods We collected data from 1323 patients included in the prospective Agence Nationale pour la Recherche sur le SIDA et les hépatites virales (ANRS) viral cirrhosis (CirVir) cohort, recruited from 35 clinical centers in France from 2006 through 2012. All patients had HCV infection and biopsy-proven cirrhosis, were Child–Pugh class A, and had no prior liver complications. All patients received anti-HCV treatment before or after inclusion (with interferon then with direct antiviral agents) and underwent an ultrasound examination every 6 months, as well as endoscopic evaluations. SVR was considered as a time-dependent covariate; its effect on outcome was assessed by the Cox proportional hazard regression method. We used a propensity score to minimize confounding by indication of treatment and capacity to achieve SVR. Results After a median follow-up period of 58.2 months, 668 patients (50.5%) achieved SVR. SVR was associated with a decreased incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (hazard ratio HR compared with patients without an SVR, 0.29; 95% confidence interval CI, 0.19–0.43; P < .001) and hepatic decompensation (HR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.17–0.39; P < .001). Patients with SVRs also had a lower risk of cardiovascular events (HR, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.25–0.69; P = .001) and bacterial infections (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.29–0.68; P < .001). Metabolic features were associated with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with SVRs, but not in patients with viremia. SVR affected overall mortality (HR, 0.27 compared with patients without SVR; 95% CI, 0.18–0.42; P < .001) and death from liver-related and non–liver-related causes. Similar results were obtained in a propensity score-matched population. Conclusions We confirmed a reduction in critical events, liver-related or not, in a prospective study of patients with HCV infection and compensated cirrhosis included in the CirVir cohort who achieved an SVR. We found an SVR to reduce overall mortality and risk of death from liver-related and non–liver-related causes. A longer follow-up evaluation is required to accurately describe and assess specific risk factors for complications in this population.
Retrospective studies have found an unexpectedly high incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-associated cirrhosis who received direct-acting antiviral ...(DAA) agents. We analyzed data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort to compare the incidence of HCC in patients with cirrhosis who received DAA therapy vs patients treated with interferon (IFN).
Data were collected from 1270 patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-associated cirrhosis recruited from 2006 through 2012 at 35 centers in France. For descriptive purpose, patients were classified as follows: patients who received DAA treatment (DAA group, n = 336), patients who achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR) following an IFN-based regimen (SVR-IFN group, n = 495), or patients who never received DAA treatment and never had an SVR following IFN therapy (non-SVR group, n = 439). The patients were included in HCC surveillance programs based on ultrasound examination every 6 months, and clinical and biological data were recorded. To account for confounding by indication due to differences in patient characteristics at treatment initiation, we constructed a time-dependent Cox regression model weighted by the inverse probability of treatment and censoring (IPTCW) to assess the treatment effects of DAA on time until HCC.
Compared with patients in the SVR-IFN group, patients in the DAA group were older, higher proportions had diabetes or portal hypertension, and liver function was more severely impaired. The crude 3-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 5.9% in the DAA group, 3.1% in the SVR-IFN group, and 12.7% in the non-SVR group (overall P < .001; unadjusted hazard ratio HR for HCC 2.03; 95% confidence interval CI 1.07–3.84; P = .030 for the DAA group vs the SVR-IFN group). HCC characteristics were similar among groups. Among patients with HCC, the DAA group received less-frequent HCC screening than the other 2 groups (P = .002). After Cox analyses weighted by the IPTCW, we found no statistically significant increase in risk of HCC associated with DAA use (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.46–1.73; P = .73).
Analysis of data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort reveals that the apparent increase in HCC incidence observed in patients with cirrhosis treated with DAAs compared with patients who achieved SVR following an IFN therapy can be explained by patient characteristics (age, diabetes, reduced liver function) and lower screening intensity.
Management of patients with cirrhosis includes endoscopic screening and surveillance to detect esophageal varices (EV) and prevent bleeding. However, the Baveno VI guidelines recommend avoiding ...endoscopies for patients with liver stiffness measurements below 20 kPa and platelet counts above 150,000 (favorable Baveno VI status) and endoscopic assessment of patients with higher levels of liver stiffness and platelet counts (unfavorable Baveno VI status). We aimed to validate the Baveno VI guidelines, evaluating outcomes of patients in the ANRS-CO12 CirVir cohort with compensated cirrhosis associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, with or without a sustained response to antiviral therapy.
We performed an ancillary study using data from 891 patients in the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, treated at 35 centers in France, with HCV or HBV infection and biopsy-proven cirrhosis, Child-Pugh A scores, no previous complications, and no hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent an endoscopic procedure and had interpretable liver stiffness measurements and platelet counts. Progression of portal hypertension (PHT) was defined as the onset of varices needing treatment (VNT) or PHT-related bleeding. An sustained response to antiviral therapy was defined as undetectable level of HCV RNA by polymerase chain reaction assay (<50 IU/mL) 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR) or an undetectable level of HBV DNA. The primary aims were to validate the Baveno VI guidelines for screening and surveillance of EV in patients with compensated cirrhosis and to study the effects of an SVR on the progression of PHT.
A total of 200 patients achieved an SVR (22.4%) (94 patients with HCV infection, 98 patients with HBV infection, and 8 patients with both); 80 of these patients had favorable Baveno VI status and none had VNT. Progression of PHT was studied in 548 patients; during a follow-up period of 61.2 months (interquartile range, 39.5–80.6 months), 105 of these patients (19.1%) had progression of PHT. Lack of an SVR and grade 1 EV were independently associated with progression of PHT. At the time of PHT progression, all patients had unfavorable Baveno VI status. Achieving favorable Baveno VI status after an SVR was associated with the absence of PHT progression. Favorable Baveno VI status and SVR were independently associated with survival.
In an analysis of data from a large cohort of patients with HBV- or HCV-associated cirrhosis in France, we validated the Baveno VI guidelines on screening and surveillance of PHT, even for patients who achieved a sustained response to antiviral therapy.
Display omitted
Semi-annual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to determine how compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines affects survival times of ...patients with hepatitis C virus– or hepatitis B virus–associated compensated cirrhosis who developed HCC.
We collected data from the prospective ANRS CO12 CirVir study, from March 2006 through June 2012, on 1671 patients with biopsy-proven viral cirrhosis and no previous liver complications who were undergoing surveillance for HCC at 35 centers in France. Only 216 patients who developed HCC during the follow-up period were included in the analysis. Patients were considered to be compliant with surveillance guidelines if the time between their last surveillance image evaluation and diagnosis of HCC were fewer than 7 months and noncompliant if this time was 7 months or longer.
HCC was detected in 216 patients, at a median follow-up time of 59.7 months. Of these patients, 140 (80.5%) were Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A, 135 (69.9%) received first-line curative treatment (15 underwent transplantation, 29 underwent resection, 89 received percutaneous ablation, and 2 received resection and percutaneous ablation), and 129 (60.0%) were compliant with surveillance guidelines. Seventy-nine of the patients with HCC died; 49 deaths were associated with tumor progression. After lead-time adjustment, overall survival (OS) time was longer in patients compliant with surveillance guidelines (median OS time, 53.2 months) than noncompliant patients (median OS time, 25.4 months) (P = .0107); this difference remained significant even when we changed lead time assumptions. In multivariate analysis adjusted for a propensity score, compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines was associated with low tumor burden, allocation of curative treatment, and increased OS time compared with noncompliance (hazard ratio for OS, 2.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.16–4.14; P = .0150).
In an analysis of data from the ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort, we associated compliance with HCC surveillance guidelines (fewer than 7 months between image evaluations) with early diagnosis, allocation of curative treatment, and longer adjusted OS of patients with hepatitis C virus– or hepatitis B virus–associated compensated cirrhosis and a diagnosis of HCC.
Identifying individuals at higher risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is pivotal to improve the performance of surveillance strategies. Herein, we aimed to evaluate the ability of ...single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to refine HCC risk stratification.
Six SNPs in PNPLA3, TM6SF2, HSD17B13, APOE, and MBOAT7 affecting lipid turnover and one variant involved in the Wnt–β-catenin pathway (WNT3A-WNT9A rs708113) were assessed in patients with alcohol-related and/or HCV-cured cirrhosis included in HCC surveillance programmes (prospective CirVir and CIRRAL cohorts). Their prognostic value for HCC occurrence was assessed using Fine-Gray models combined into a 7-SNP genetic risk score (GRS). The predictive ability of two clinical scores (a routine non-genetic model determined by multivariate analysis and the external aMAP score) with/without the GRS was evaluated by C-indices. The standardised net benefit was derived from decision curves.
Among 1,145 patients, 86 (7.5%) developed HCC after 43.7 months. PNPLA3 and WNT3A-WNT9A variants were independently associated with HCC occurrence. The GRS stratified the population into three groups with progressively increased 5-year HCC incidence (Group 1 n = 627, 5.4%, Group 2 n = 276, 10.7%, and Group 3 n = 242, 15.3%; p <0.001). The multivariate model identified age, male sex, diabetes, platelet count, gamma-glutamyltransferase levels, albuminemia and the GRS as independent risk factors. The clinical model performance for 5-year HCC prediction was similar to that of the aMAP score (C-Index 0.769). The addition of the GRS to both scores modestly improved their performance (C-Indices of 0.786 and 0.783, respectively). This finding was confirmed by decision curve analyses showing only fair clinical net benefit.
Patients with cirrhosis can be stratified into HCC risk classes by variants affecting lipid turnover and the Wnt–β-catenin pathway. The incorporation of this genetic information modestly improves the performance of clinical scores.
The identification of patients at higher risk of developing liver cancer is pivotal to improve the performance of surveillance. Risk assessment can be achieved by combining several clinical and biological parameters used in routine practice. The addition of patients’ genetic characteristics can modestly improve this prediction and will ultimately pave the way for precision medicine in patients eligible for HCC surveillance, allowing physicians to trigger personalised screening strategies.
Display omitted
•HCC risk stratification will ultimately enable refinement of surveillance strategies in patients with cirrhosis.•Universal scoring systems based on routine parameters may currently be applied regardless of the cause of liver disease.•Seven genetic variants can be combined into a genetic risk score for HCC in patients in surveillance programs.•The addition of this genetic information to clinical scoring systems modestly improves their performance for risk stratification.
Refining hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs requires improved individual risk prediction. Thus, we aimed to develop algorithms based on machine learning approaches to predict the ...risk of HCC more accurately in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, according to their virological status.
Patients with compensated biopsy-proven HCV-related cirrhosis from the French ANRS CO12 CirVir cohort were included in a semi-annual HCC surveillance program. Three prognostic models for HCC occurrence were built, using (i) Fine-Gray regression as a benchmark, (ii) single decision tree (DT), and (iii) random survival forest for competing risks survival (RSF). Model performance was evaluated from C-indexes validated externally in the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort (n = 668 enrolled between 08/2012–01/2014).
Out of 836 patients analyzed, 156 (19%) developed HCC and 434 (52%) achieved sustained virological response (SVR) (median follow-up 63 months). Fine-Gray regression models identified 6 independent predictors of HCC occurrence in patients before SVR (past excessive alcohol intake, genotype 1, elevated AFP and GGT, low platelet count and albuminemia) and 3 in patients after SVR (elevated AST, low platelet count and shorter prothrombin time). DT analysis confirmed these associations but revealed more complex interactions, yielding 8 patient groups with varying cancer risks and predictors depending on SVR achievement. On RSF analysis, the most important predictors of HCC varied by SVR status (non-SVR: platelet count, GGT, AFP and albuminemia; SVR: prothrombin time, ALT, age and platelet count). Externally validated C-indexes before/after SVR were 0.64/0.64 Fine-Gray, 0.60/62 DT and 0.71/0.70 RSF.
Risk factors for hepatocarcinogenesis differ according to SVR status. Machine learning algorithms can refine HCC risk assessment by revealing complex interactions between cancer predictors. Such approaches could be used to develop more cost-effective tailored surveillance programs.
Patients with HCV-related cirrhosis must be included in liver cancer surveillance programs, which rely on ultrasound examination every 6 months. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening is hampered by sensitivity issues, leading to late cancer diagnoses in a substantial number of patients. Refining surveillance periodicity and modality using more sophisticated imaging techniques such as MRI may only be cost-effective in patients with the highest HCC incidence. Herein, we demonstrate how machine learning algorithms (i.e. data-driven mathematical models to make predictions or decisions), can refine individualized risk prediction.
Display omitted
•HCC surveillance programs must be refined and personalized according to liver cancer incidence.•Machine learning algorithms can individually assess HCC risk by revealing complex interactions between cancer predictors.•Their application in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis enabled the identification of novel HCC risk classes.•This stratification differs according to SVR status.•These approaches could enable personalized and cost-effective HCC surveillance programs for HCV-related cirrhosis.
Various critical events, liver related or not, occur in patients with compensated cirrhosis, but their respective burden remains to be prospectively assessed. The aim of this prospective cohort study ...involving 35 French centers was to capture the whole spectrum of complications occurring in compensated viral cirrhosis (VC) using competing risks analyses. Inclusion criteria were: histologically proven cirrhosis resulting from hepatitis C virus (HCV) or hepatitis B virus (HBV); Child‐Pugh A; and no previous hepatic complications. The cohort was considered as a multistate disease model, cumulative incidences (CumIs) of events were estimated in a competing risks framework. A total of 1,654 patients were enrolled from 2006 to 2012 (HCV, 1,308; HBV, 315; HCV‐HBV, 31). During a median follow‐up of 34 months, at least one liver nodule was detected in 271 patients, confirmed as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in 128 (4‐year cumI: 10.5%) and cholangiocarcinoma in 3. HCC incidence was higher in HCV (4‐year cumI: 11.4% vs. 7.4%; P = 0.05). HCC fulfilled Milan criteria in 79.3%, leading to curative treatment in 70.4%. Liver decompensation occurred more frequently in HCV patients (4‐year cumI: 10.8% vs. 3.6%; P = 0.0004). Virological eradication/control was achieved in 34.1% of HCV and 88.6% of HBV patients and was associated with a marked decrease in HCC, decompensation, and bacterial infection incidences. Survival was shorter in HCV patients (4‐year cumI: 91.6% vs. 97.2%; P = 0.0002). Death (n = 102; missing data: 6) was attributed to liver disease in 48 (47%; liver cancer: n = 18; miscellaneous, n = 30) and extrahepatic causes in 48 (47%; bacterial infection: n = 13; extrahepatic cancers: n = 10; cardiovascular events: n = 5; miscellaneous, n = 20). Conclusion: After 3 years of follow‐up, extrahepatic events still explained half of deaths in patients with compensated VC. A strong decrease in complications was linked to virological eradication/control. (Hepatology 2015;62:737–750)
PDF
