Species' ranges are shifting globally in response to climate warming, with substantial variability among taxa, even within regions. Relationships between range dynamics and intrinsic species traits ...may be particularly apparent in the ocean, where temperature more directly shapes species' distributions. Here, we test for a role of species traits and climate velocity in driving range extensions in the ocean‐warming hotspot of southeast Australia. Climate velocity explained some variation in range shifts, however, including species traits more than doubled the variation explained. Swimming ability, omnivory and latitudinal range size all had positive relationships with range extension rate, supporting hypotheses that increased dispersal capacity and ecological generalism promote extensions. We find independent support for the hypothesis that species with narrow latitudinal ranges are limited by factors other than climate. Our findings suggest that small‐ranging species are in double jeopardy, with limited ability to escape warming and greater intrinsic vulnerability to stochastic disturbances.
Tropical reefs have been subjected to a range of anthropogenic pressures such as global climate change, overfishing and eutrophication that have raised questions about the prominence of macroalgae on ...tropical reefs, whether they pose a threat to biodiversity, and how they may influence the function of tropical marine ecosystems.
We synthesise current understanding of the structure and function of tropical macroalgal reefs and how they may support various ecosystem goods and services. We then forecast how key stressors may alter the role of macroalgal reefs in tropical seascapes of the Anthropocene.
High levels of primary productivity from tropical canopy macroalgae, which rivals that of other key producers (e.g., corals and turf algae), can be widely dispersed across tropical seascapes to provide a boost of secondary productivity in a range of biomes that include coral reefs, and support periodic harvests of macroalgal biomass for industrial and agricultural uses. Complex macroalgal reefs that comprise a mixture of canopy and understorey taxa can also provide key habitats for a diverse community of epifauna, as well as juvenile and adult fishes that are the basis for important tropical fisheries.
Key macroalgal taxa (e.g., Sargassum) that form complex macroalgal reefs are likely to be sensitive to future climate change. Increases in maximum sea temperature, in particular, could depress biomass production and/or drive phenological shifts in canopy formation that will affect their capacity to support tropical marine ecosystems.
Macroalgal reefs can support a suite of tropical marine ecosystem functions when embedded within an interconnected mosaic of habitat types. Habitat connectivity is, therefore, essential if we are to maintain tropical marine biodiversity alongside key ecosystem goods and services. Consequently, complex macroalgal reefs should be treated as a key ecological asset in strategies for the conservation and management of diverse tropical seascapes.
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Globally, coral bleaching has been responsible for a significant decline in both coral cover and diversity over the past two decades. During the summer of 2010-11, anomalous large-scale ocean warming ...induced unprecedented levels of coral bleaching accompanied by substantial storminess across more than 12° of latitude and 1200 kilometers of coastline in Western Australia (WA).
Extreme La-Niña conditions caused extensive warming of waters and drove considerable storminess and cyclonic activity across WA from October 2010 to May 2011. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature measurements recorded anomalies of up to 5°C above long-term averages. Benthic surveys quantified the extent of bleaching at 10 locations across four regions from tropical to temperate waters. Bleaching was recorded in all locations across regions and ranged between 17% (±5.5) in the temperate Perth region, to 95% (±3.5) in the Exmouth Gulf of the tropical Ningaloo region. Coincident with high levels of bleaching, three cyclones passed in close proximity to study locations around the time of peak temperatures. Follow-up surveys revealed spatial heterogeneity in coral cover change with four of ten locations recording significant loss of coral cover. Relative decreases ranged between 22%-83.9% of total coral cover, with the greatest losses in the Exmouth Gulf.
The anomalous thermal stress of 2010-11 induced mass bleaching of corals along central and southern WA coral reefs. Significant coral bleaching was observed at multiple locations across the tropical-temperate divide spanning more than 1200 km of coastline. Resultant spatially patchy loss of coral cover under widespread and high levels of bleaching and cyclonic activity, suggests a degree of resilience for WA coral communities. However, the spatial extent of bleaching casts some doubt over hypotheses suggesting that future impacts to coral reefs under forecast warming regimes may in part be mitigated by southern thermal refugia.
Aim: The dispersal and distribution patterns of many marine organisms are driven by oceanographic conditions, which are influenced by global climate. Climate-driven oceanographic changes are thus ...likely to result in biogeographical changes. We assess how recent and predicted oceanographic changes affect the dispersal capacities and distributions of ecologically important (especially habitat-forming) marine organisms. Location: We include studies from tropical, temperate and sub-polar regions to draw globally relevant conclusions. Methods: We review biogeographical, biological and oceanographic studies to critically evaluate emerging trends in biogeographical responses to climatedriven oceanographic changes, and predict how future changes will affect marine ecosystems. Results: Many oceanic dispersal pathways are being altered by climate change. These changes will affect marine ecosystems by differentially affecting the replenishment potential and connectivity of key habitat-forming species. In particular, the length of propagule pre-competency periods, propagule behaviour and the geographical distance between areas of suitable habitat will be critical in determining how oceanographic changes affect the pattern and success of dispersal events, including the likelihood of species experiencing poleward range shirts in response to a warming climate. Main conclusions: Future climate-driven oceanographic changes are likely to strengthen or weaken different oceanic dispersal pathways, which will either increase or decrease the potential for dispersal and connectivity in various marine taxa according to the interaction between the local oceanographic, geographical and taxonspecific biological factors. A key focus for future work should be the development of fine-scale near-shore ocean circulation models that can be used to assess the dispersal response of key marine taxa under various marine climate change scenarios.
Many fishes undergo ontogenetic habitat shifts to meet their energy and resource needs as they grow. Habitat resource partitioning and patterns of habitat connectivity between conspecific fishes at ...different life-history stages is a significant knowledge gap. Species distribution models were used to examine patterns in the relative abundance, individual biomass estimates and environmental niche associations of different life stages of three iconic West Australian fishes. Continuous predictive maps describing the spatial distribution of abundance and individual biomass of the study species were created as well predictive hotspot maps that identify possible areas for aggregation of individuals of similar life stages of multiple species (i.e. spawning grounds, fisheries refugia or nursery areas). The models and maps indicate that processes driving the abundance patterns could be different from the body size associated demographic processes throughout an individual's life cycle. Incorporating life-history in the spatially explicit management plans can ensure that critical habitat of the vulnerable stages (e.g. juvenile fish, spawning stock) is included within proposed protected areas and can enhance connectivity between various functional areas (e.g. nursery areas and adult populations) which, in turn, can improve the abundance of targeted species as well as other fish species relying on healthy ecosystem functioning.
•Range shifts are increasingly influencing marine biodiversity and resources.•Here we define range extensions and contractions as stages.•Range shifts can be staged with multiple evidence types and ...applied to diverse species.•Relative range extension and contraction rates should be calculated for equivalent stages.•Assigning confidence to shifts with a stage-based framework may underpin ecological insights.
Climate change is transforming the structure of biological communities through the geographic extension and contraction of species’ ranges. Range edges are naturally dynamic, and shifts in the location of range edges occur at different rates and are driven by different mechanisms. This leads to challenges when seeking to generalize responses among taxa and across systems. We focus on warming-related range shifts in marine systems to describe extensions and contractions as stages. Range extensions occur as a sequence of (1) arrival, (2) population increase, and (3) persistence. By contrast, range contractions occur progressively as (1) performance decline, (2) population decrease and (3) local extinction. This stage-based framework can be broadly applied to geographic shifts in any species, life-history stage, or population subset. Ideally the probability of transitioning through progressive range shift stages could be estimated from empirical understanding of the various factors influencing range shift rates. Nevertheless, abundance and occupancy data at the spatial resolution required to quantify range shifts are often unavailable and we suggest the pragmatic solution of considering observations of range shifts within a confidence framework incorporating the type, amount and quality of data. We use case studies to illustrate how diverse evidence sources can be used to stage range extensions and contractions and assign confidence that an observed range shift stage has been reached. We then evaluate the utility of trait-based risk (invasion) and vulnerability (extinction) frameworks for application in a range shift context and find inadequacies, indicating an important area for development. We further consider factors that influence rates of extension and contraction of range edges in marine habitats. Finally, we suggest approaches required to increase our capacity to observe and predict geographic range shifts under climate change.
A major limitation to fully integrated ecosystem based fishery management approaches is a lack of information on the spatial distribution of marine species and the environmental conditions shaping ...these distributions. This is particularly problematic for deep-water species that are hard to sample and are data poor. The past decade has seen the rapid development of a suite of advanced species distribution, or ecological niche, modelling approaches developed specifically to support efficient and targeted management. However, model performance can vary significantly and the appropriateness of which methods are best for a given application remains questionable. Species distribution models were developed for three commercially valuable Hawaiian deep-water eteline snappers: Etelis coruscans (Onaga), Etelis carbunculus (Ehu) and Pristipomoides filamentosus (Opakapaka). Distributional data for these species was relatively sparse. To identify the best method, model performance and distributional accuracy was assessed and compared using three approaches: Generalised Additive Models (GAM), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). Independent spatial validation data found MaxEnt consistently provided better model performance with ‘good’ model predictions (AUC =>0.8). Each species was influenced by a unique combination of environmental conditions, with depth, terrain (slope) and substrate (low lying unconsolidated sediments), being the three most important in shaping their distributions. Sustainable fisheries management, marine spatial planning and environmental decision support systems rely on an understanding species distribution patterns and habitat linkages. This study demonstrates that predictive species distribution modelling approaches can be used to accurately model and map sparse species distribution data across marine landscapes. The approach used herein was found to be an accurate tool to delineate species distributions and associated habitat linkages, account for species-specific differences and support sustainable ecosystem-based management.
•Integrated ecosystem-based fishery management approaches lack information on the spatial distribution of marine species.•Species distribution modelling can improve essential fish habitat designation for data poor species.•Choice of modelling approach is important and a number should be tested to identify the best.•For management units ‘core’ essential fish habitat must be identified to account for species-specific differences.
Prioritising biodiversity conservation requires knowledge of where biodiversity occurs. Such knowledge, however, is often lacking. New technologies for collecting biological and physical data coupled ...with advances in modelling techniques could help address these gaps and facilitate improved management outcomes. Here we examined the utility of environmental data, obtained using different methods, for developing models of both uni- and multivariate biodiversity metrics. We tested which biodiversity metrics could be predicted best and evaluated the performance of predictor variables generated from three types of habitat data: acoustic multibeam sonar imagery, predicted habitat classification, and direct observer habitat classification. We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model metrics of fish species richness, abundance and biomass, and multivariate regression trees (MRT) to model biomass and abundance of fish functional groups. We compared model performance using different sets of predictors and estimated the relative influence of individual predictors. Models of total species richness and total abundance performed best; those developed for endemic species performed worst. Abundance models performed substantially better than corresponding biomass models. In general, BRT and MRTs developed using predicted habitat classifications performed less well than those using multibeam data. The most influential individual predictor was the abiotic categorical variable from direct observer habitat classification and models that incorporated predictors from direct observer habitat classification consistently outperformed those that did not. Our results show that while remotely sensed data can offer considerable utility for predictive modelling, the addition of direct observer habitat classification data can substantially improve model performance. Thus it appears that there are aspects of marine habitats that are important for modelling metrics of fish biodiversity that are not fully captured by remotely sensed data. As such, the use of remotely sensed data to model biodiversity represents a compromise between model performance and data availability.
Niche requirements and habitat resource partitioning by conspecific fishes of different sizes are significant knowledge gaps in the species distribution modelling domain. Management actions and ...operations are typically concentrated on static habitats, or specific areas of interest, without considering movement patterns of species associated with ontogenetic shifts in habitat usage. Generalized additive models were used to model the body-length–habitat relationships of six fish species. These models were used to identify subsets of environmental parameters that drive and explain the continuous length–habitat relationships for each of the study species, which vary in their degree of ecological and/or commercial importance. Continuous predictive maps of the length distributions for each of the six study species across approximately 200 km2 of the study area were created from these models. The spatial patterns in habitat partitioning by individuals of different body lengths for all six study species provide strong evidence for ontogenetic shifts. This highlights the importance of considering ontogenetic processes for marine spatial management. Importantly, predictive hotspot maps were created that identify potential areas that accumulate individuals of similar life stages of multiple species (e.g., multispecies nursery areas). In circumstances where limited resources are available for monitoring and management of fish resources, predictive modelling is a valuable tool for studying previously overlooked processes such as ontogenetic habitat shifts. Predictive modelling provides crucial information that elucidates spatial patterns in community composition across mosaics of benthic habitats. This novel technique can contribute to the spatial management of coastal fish and fisheries by identifying areas that are important for different life history stages of multiple fish species.
Western Australia’s coral reefs have largely escaped the chronic pressures affecting other reefs around the world, but are regularly affected by seasonal storms and cyclones, and increasingly by heat ...stress and coral bleaching. Reef systems north of 18°S have been impacted by heat stress and coral bleaching during strong El Niño phases and those further south during strong La Niña phases. Cumulative heat stress and the extent of bleaching throughout the northern reefs in 2016 were higher than at any other time on record. To assess the changing regime of disturbance to reef systems across Western Australia (WA), we linked their site-specific exposure to damaging waves and heat stress since 1990 with mean changes in coral cover. Since 2010, there has been a noticeable increase in heat stress and coral bleaching across WA. Over half the reef systems have been severely impacted by coral bleaching since 2010, which was further compounded by cyclones at some reefs. For most (75%) reef systems with long-term data (5–26 yrs), mean coral cover is currently at (or near) the lowest on record and a full recovery is unlikely if disturbances continue to intensify with climate change. However, some reefs have not yet experienced severe bleaching and their coral cover has remained relatively stable or increased in recent years. Additionally, within all reef systems the condition of communities and their exposure to disturbances varied spatially. Identifying the communities least susceptible to future disturbances and linking them through networks of protected areas, based on patterns of larval connectivity, are important research and management priorities in coming years while the causes of climate change are addressed.
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