Summarising the complexity of a country's economy in a single number is the holy grail for scholars engaging in data-based economics. In a field where the Gross Domestic Product remains the preferred ...indicator for many, economic complexity measures, aiming at uncovering the productive knowledge of countries, have been stirring the pot in the past few years. The commonly used methodologies to measure economic complexity produce contrasting results, undermining their acceptance and applications. Here we show that these methodologies - apparently conflicting on fundamental aspects - can be reconciled by adopting a neat mathematical perspective based on linear-algebra tools within a bipartite-networks framework. The obtained results shed new light on the potential of economic complexity to trace and forecast countries' innovation potential and to interpret the temporal dynamics of economic growth, possibly paving the way to a micro-foundation of the field.
The virtual water (VW) trade associated to food is composed by the quantity of water utilized for the production of the crops exchanged on the global market. In assessing a country's water abundance ...or scarcity when entering the international VW trade, scholars consider only physical water availability, neglecting economic water scarcity, which indicates situations in which socio-economic obstacles impede the productive use of water. We weight the global VW trade associated to primary crops with a newly proposed composite water scarcity index (CWSI) that combines physical and economic water scarcity. 39% of VW volumes is exported from countries with a higher CWSI than the one of the destination country. Such unfair routes occur both from low- to high-income countries and among low- and middle-income countries themselves. High-income countries have a predominant role in import of CWSI-weighted VW, while low- and middle-income countries dominate among the largest CWSI-weighted VW exporters. For many of them economic water scarcity dominates over physical scarcity. The application of the CWSI elicits also a status change from net exporter to net importer for some wealthy countries and viceversa for some low- and middle-income countries. The application of CWSI allows one to quantify to what extent VW exchanges flow along environmentally and economically unfair routes, and it can inform the design of compensation policies.
Understanding the dynamics of food trade, which involves a corresponding virtual trade in environmental resources, is relevant for its effects on the environment. Among the socioeconomic factors ...driving the international food market, trade agreements play a significant yet poorly understood role in facilitating access to worldwide trade. Focusing on the global trade of grain from 1993 to 2015, we investigate the role of trade agreements in activating new linkages and increasing traded volumes and their environmental implications. Through a data-driven approach, we show that the activation of a trade agreement among countries induces a more than six-fold increase in the probability of establishing a new link. Also, the presence of a trade agreement over time, not just its activation, relates to a more stable market since it reduces the probability of link deactivation by more than half. The trade links covered by agreements show larger flows and smoother inter-annual fluctuations. Furthermore, trade agreements encourage the development of more water-efficient flows by stimulating the exchange of crops with high water productivity values. The average economic water productivity of crops traded under trade agreements increases by 62% when considering total virtual water and even by 93% when focusing on blue water.
Complex network theory (CNT) is gaining a lot of attention in the scientific community, due to its capability to model and interpret an impressive number of natural and anthropic phenomena. One of ...the most active CNT field concerns the evaluation of the centrality of vertices and edges in the network. Several metrics have been proposed, but all of them share a topological point of view, namely centrality descends from the local or global connectivity structure of the network. However, vertices can exhibit their own intrinsic relevance independent from topology; e.g., vertices representing strategic locations (e.g., hospitals, water and energy sources, etc.) or institutional roles (e.g., presidents, agencies, etc.). In these cases, the connectivity network structure and vertex intrinsic relevance mutually concur to define the centrality of vertices and edges. The purpose of this work is to embed the information about the intrinsic relevance of vertices into CNT tools to enhance the network analysis. We focus on the degree, closeness and betweenness metrics, being among the most used. Two examples, concerning a social (the historical Florence family's marriage network) and an infrastructure (a water supply system) network, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed relevance-embedding extension of the centrality metrics.
Abstract
In 2015, the United Nations established the Agenda 2030 for sustainable development, addressing the major challenges the world faces and introducing the 17 Sustainable Development Goals ...(SDGs). How are countries performing in their challenge toward sustainable development? We address this question by treating countries and Goals as a complex bipartite network. While network science has been used to unveil the interconnections among the Goals, it has been poorly exploited to rank countries for their achievements. In this work, we show that the network representation of the countries-SDGs relations as a bipartite system allows one to recover aggregate scores of countries’ capacity to cope with SDGs as the solutions of a network’s centrality exercise. While the Goals are all equally important by definition, interesting differences self-emerge when non-standard centrality metrics, borrowed from economic complexity, are adopted. Innovation and Climate Action stand as contrasting Goals to be accomplished, with countries facing the well-known trade-offs between economic and environmental issues even in addressing the Agenda. In conclusion, the complexity of countries’ paths toward sustainable development cannot be fully understood by resorting to a single, multipurpose ranking indicator, while multi-variable analyses shed new light on the present and future of sustainable development.
Food Security is a long-standing concern worldwide. The expansion of global food markets brings benefits but also risks, such as shock transmission within the global network of trade relations. We ...focus on this last issue, from an empirical point of view, by analysing the diffusion of trade shocks-defined as relevant drops in exported quantities-during the period 1986-2011, for four major staples (wheat, maize, rice, and soy-beans) both at country level and at global scale. We find that: (i) income per capita of importing countries is relevant in shock propagation; (ii) developing countries tend to absorb most of the negative export variation (i.e., the trade shock), and (iii) global food prices and real (tonnes) flows of commodities are only weakly correlated, meaning that a quantity-based investigation provides additional information with respect to a price-based analysis. This work offers a novel framework, complementary to the price-based literature, for the measurement of the propagation of international food shocks.
The incidental or malicious release of toxic gases in the atmosphere is one of the most critical scenarios for cities. The impact of these releases varies with the ventilation potential of the urban ...environment. To disentangle this crucial aspect, vulnerability to airborne releases is here traced back to essential properties of the urban fabric. To this aim, pollutant dispersion is disassembled in its fundamental bricks and the main drivers of the process are captured. The analysis is based on four cities with emblematic architectures: Paris, Firenze, Lyon and New York. Results show that vulnerability is driven by the topology of the city and by its interaction with the approaching wind. In this sense, fragility to toxic releases is written in the layout of the urban fabric and results from its historical evolution. This study paves the way to the assessment of air pollution-related issues from a morphological point of view.
•We focus on how river flow fluctuations (RFF) affect riparian vegetation dynamics.•The most relevant mechanisms are reviewed from a processes-based perspective.•The advances gained from a modeling ...point of view are considered and discussed.•The main models developed for RFF-riparian vegetation interactions are presented.•Different modeling approaches and results are compared.
Several decades of field observations, laboratory experiments and mathematical modelings have demonstrated that the riparian environment is a disturbance-driven ecosystem, and that the main source of disturbance is river flow fluctuations. The focus of the present work has been on the key role that flow fluctuations play in determining the abundance, zonation and species composition of patches of riparian vegetation. To this aim, the scientific literature on the subject, over the last 20 years, has been reviewed. First, the most relevant ecological, morphological and chemical mechanisms induced by river flow fluctuations are described from a process-based perspective. The role of flow variability is discussed for the processes that affect the recruitment of vegetation, the vegetation during its adult life, and the morphological and nutrient dynamics occurring in the riparian habitat. Particular emphasis has been given to studies that were aimed at quantifying the effect of these processes on vegetation, and at linking them to the statistical characteristics of the river hydrology. Second, the advances made, from a modeling point of view, have been considered and discussed. The main models that have been developed to describe the dynamics of riparian vegetation have been presented. Different modeling approaches have been compared, and the corresponding advantages and drawbacks have been pointed out. Finally, attention has been paid to identifying the processes considered by the models, and these processes have been compared with those that have actually been observed or measured in field/laboratory studies.
Population growth, socio-economic development and climate changes are placing increasing pressure on water resources. Crop water footprint is a key indicator in the quantification of such pressure. ...It is determined by crop evapotranspiration and crop yield, which can be highly variable in space and time. While the spatial variability of crop water footprint has been the objective of several investigations, the temporal variability remains poorly studied. In particular, some studies approached this issue by associating the time variability of crop water footprint only to yield changes, while considering evapotranspiration patterns as marginal. Validation of this Fast Track approach has yet to be provided. In this Letter we demonstrate its feasibility through a comprehensive validation, an assessment of its uncertainty, and an example of application. Our results show that the water footprint changes are mainly driven by yield trends, while evapotranspiration plays a minor role. The error due to considering constant evapotranspiration is three times smaller than the uncertainty of the model used to compute the crop water footprint. These results confirm the suitability of the Fast Track approach and enable a simple, yet appropriate, evaluation of time-varying crop water footprint.
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with cognitive impairment/dementia, independently of clinical cerebrovascular events (stroke/TIA). One of the plausible mechanisms is the occurrence of ...AF-induced transient critical hemodynamic events; however, it is presently unknown, if ventricular response rate during AF may impact on cerebral hemodynamics. AF was simulated at different ventricular rates (50, 70, 90, 110, 130 bpm) by two coupled lumped parameter validated models (systemic and cerebral circulation), and compared to corresponding control normal sinus rhythm simulations (NSR). Hemodynamic outcomes and occurrence of critical events (hypoperfusions and hypertensive events) were assessed along the internal carotid artery-middle cerebral artery pathway up to the capillary-venous bed. At the distal cerebral circle level (downstream middle cerebral artery), increasing ventricular rates lead to a reduced heart rate-related dampening of hemodynamic signals compared to NSR (p = 0.003 and 0.002 for flow rate and pressure, respectively). This response causes a significant progressive increase in critical events in the distal cerebral circle (p < 0.001) as ventricular rate increases during AF. On the other side, at the lowest ventricular response rates (HR 50 bpm), at the systemic-proximal cerebral circle level (up to middle cerebral artery) hypoperfusions (p < 0.001) occur more commonly, compared to faster AF simulations. This computational study suggests that higher ventricular rates relate to a progressive increase in critical cerebral hemodynamic events (hypoperfusions and hypertensive events) at the distal cerebral circle. Thus, a rate control strategy aiming to around 60 bpm could be beneficial in terms on cognitive outcomes in patients with permanent AF.
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