Most causal inference methods consider counterfactual variables under interventions that set the exposure to a fixed value. With continuous or multi-valued treatments or exposures, such ...counterfactuals may be of little practical interest because no feasible intervention can be implemented that would bring them about. Longitudinal modified treatment policies (LMTPs) are a recently developed nonparametric alternative that yield effects of immediate practical relevance with an interpretation in terms of meaningful interventions such as reducing or increasing the exposure by a given amount. LMTPs also have the advantage that they can be designed to satisfy the positivity assumption required for causal inference. We present a novel sequential regression formula that identifies the LMTP causal effect, study properties of the LMTP statistical estimand such as the efficient influence function and the efficiency bound, and propose four different estimators. Two of our estimators are efficient, and one is sequentially doubly robust in the sense that it is consistent if, for each time point, either an outcome regression or a treatment mechanism is consistently estimated. We perform numerical studies of the estimators, and present the results of our motivating study on hypoxemia and mortality in intubated Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients. Software implementing our methods is provided in the form of the open source R package lmtp freely available on GitHub (
https://github.com/nt-williams/lmtp
) and CRAN.
The post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) refers to a broad spectrum of symptoms and signs that are persistent, exacerbated or newly incident in the period after acute SARS-CoV-2 ...infection. Most studies have examined these conditions individually without providing evidence on co-occurring conditions. In this study, we leveraged the electronic health record data of two large cohorts, INSIGHT and OneFlorida+, from the national Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network. We created a development cohort from INSIGHT and a validation cohort from OneFlorida+ including 20,881 and 13,724 patients, respectively, who were SARS-CoV-2 infected, and we investigated their newly incident diagnoses 30-180 days after a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. Through machine learning analysis of over 137 symptoms and conditions, we identified four reproducible PASC subphenotypes, dominated by cardiac and renal (including 33.75% and 25.43% of the patients in the development and validation cohorts); respiratory, sleep and anxiety (32.75% and 38.48%); musculoskeletal and nervous system (23.37% and 23.35%); and digestive and respiratory system (10.14% and 12.74%) sequelae. These subphenotypes were associated with distinct patient demographics, underlying conditions before SARS-CoV-2 infection and acute infection phase severity. Our study provides insights into the heterogeneity of PASC and may inform stratified decision-making in the management of PASC conditions.
Individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 who also display hyperglycemia suffer from longer hospital stays, higher risk of developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and increased mortality. ...Nevertheless, the pathophysiological mechanism of hyperglycemia in COVID-19 remains poorly characterized. Here, we show that hyperglycemia is similarly prevalent among patients with ARDS independent of COVID-19 status. Yet among patients with ARDS and COVID-19, insulin resistance is the prevalent cause of hyperglycemia, independent of glucocorticoid treatment, which is unlike patients with ARDS but without COVID-19, where pancreatic beta cell failure predominates. A screen of glucoregulatory hormones revealed lower levels of adiponectin in patients with COVID-19. Hamsters infected with SARS-CoV-2 demonstrated a strong antiviral gene expression program in the adipose tissue and diminished expression of adiponectin. Moreover, we show that SARS-CoV-2 can infect adipocytes. Together these data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may trigger adipose tissue dysfunction to drive insulin resistance and adverse outcomes in acute COVID-19.
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•Hyperglycemia is highly prevalent in acute respiratory distress syndrome ± COVID-19•Insulin resistance is the main cause for hyperglycemia in patients with severe COVID-19•Patients with COVID-19 and hamsters infected with SARS-CoV-2 have decreased adiponectin•SARS-CoV-2 can directly infect human and mouse adipocytes
Here, Reiterer et al. report that hyperglycemia in critically ill patients with COVID-19 is caused mainly by insulin resistance and is associated with decreased circulating adiponectin. SARS-CoV-2 is shown to directly infect human adipocytes, trigger an inflammatory antiviral response in the adipose tissue, and cause its dysfunction.
Sepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome, and the identification of clinical subphenotypes is essential. Although organ dysfunction is a defining element of sepsis, subphenotypes of differential trajectory ...are not well studied. We sought to identify distinct Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score trajectory-based subphenotypes in sepsis.
We created 72-h SOFA score trajectories in patients with sepsis from four diverse intensive care unit (ICU) cohorts. We then used dynamic time warping (DTW) to compute heterogeneous SOFA trajectory similarities and hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC) to identify trajectory-based subphenotypes. Patient characteristics were compared between subphenotypes and a random forest model was developed to predict subphenotype membership at 6 and 24 h after being admitted to the ICU. The model was tested on three validation cohorts. Sensitivity analyses were performed with alternative clustering methodologies.
A total of 4678, 3665, 12,282, and 4804 unique sepsis patients were included in development and three validation cohorts, respectively. Four subphenotypes were identified in the development cohort: Rapidly Worsening (n = 612, 13.1%), Delayed Worsening (n = 960, 20.5%), Rapidly Improving (n = 1932, 41.3%), and Delayed Improving (n = 1174, 25.1%). Baseline characteristics, including the pattern of organ dysfunction, varied between subphenotypes. Rapidly Worsening was defined by a higher comorbidity burden, acidosis, and visceral organ dysfunction. Rapidly Improving was defined by vasopressor use without acidosis. Outcomes differed across the subphenotypes, Rapidly Worsening had the highest in-hospital mortality (28.3%, P-value < 0.001), despite a lower SOFA (mean: 4.5) at ICU admission compared to Rapidly Improving (mortality:5.5%, mean SOFA: 5.5). An overall prediction accuracy of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77, 0.8) was obtained at 6 h after ICU admission, which increased to 0.87 (95% CI, 0.86, 0.88) at 24 h. Similar subphenotypes were replicated in three validation cohorts. The majority of patients with sepsis have an improving phenotype with a lower mortality risk; however, they make up over 20% of all deaths due to their larger numbers.
Four novel, clinically-defined, trajectory-based sepsis subphenotypes were identified and validated. Identifying trajectory-based subphenotypes has immediate implications for the powering and predictive enrichment of clinical trials. Understanding the pathophysiology of these differential trajectories may reveal unanticipated therapeutic targets and identify more precise populations and endpoints for clinical trials.
Respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (AKI) are associated with high mortality in SARS-CoV-2-associated Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). These manifestations are linked to a hypercoaguable, ...pro-inflammatory state with persistent, systemic complement activation. Three critical COVID-19 patients recalcitrant to multiple interventions had skin biopsies documenting deposition of the terminal complement component C5b-9, the lectin complement pathway enzyme MASP2, and C4d in microvascular endothelium. Administration of anti-C5 monoclonal antibody eculizumab led to a marked decline in D-dimers and neutrophil counts in all three cases, and normalization of liver functions and creatinine in two. One patient with severe heart failure and AKI had a complete remission. The other two individuals had partial remissions, one with resolution of his AKI but ultimately succumbing to respiratory failure, and another with a significant decline in FiO2 requirements, but persistent renal failure. In conclusion, anti-complement therapy may be beneficial in at least some patients with critical COVID-19.
•SARS-CoV-2 infection in COVID-19 is associated with sustained complement activation.•Severe COVID-19 involves a pro-inflammatory/hypercoaguable state linked to complement.•Complement deposition in skin of 3 COVID-19 cases recalcitrant to therapy is shown.•Anti-C5 therapy with eculizumab led to 1 complete and 2 partial clinical remissions.•Our data may inform guidelines for earlier intervention with anti-C agents in COVID-19.
The Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3) Task Force recently introduced a new clinical score termed quick Sequential (Sepsis-related) Organ Failure ...Assessment (qSOFA) for identification of patients at risk of sepsis outside the intensive care unit (ICU). We attempted to compare the discriminatory capacity of the qSOFA versus the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) score for predicting mortality, ICU-free days, and organ dysfunction-free days in patients with suspicion of infection outside the ICU.
The Weill Cornell Medicine Registry and Biobank of Critically Ill Patients is an ongoing cohort of critically ill patients, for whom biological samples and clinical information (including vital signs before and during ICU hospitalization) are prospectively collected. Using such information, qSOFA and SIRS scores outside the ICU (specifically, within 8 hours before ICU admission) were calculated. This study population was therefore comprised of patients in the emergency department or the hospital wards who had suspected infection, were subsequently admitted to the medical ICU and were included in the Registry and Biobank.
One hundred fifty-two patients (67% from the emergency department) were included in this study. Sixty-seven percent had positive cultures and 19% died in the hospital. Discrimination of in-hospital mortality using qSOFA area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), 0.74; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.66-0.81 was significantly greater compared with SIRS criteria (AUC, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.51-0.67; p = 0.03). The qSOFA performed better than SIRS regarding discrimination for ICU-free days (p = 0.04), but not for ventilator-free days (p = 0.19), any organ dysfunction-free days (p = 0.13), or renal dysfunction-free days (p = 0.17).
In patients with suspected infection who eventually required admission to the ICU, qSOFA calculated before their ICU admission had greater accuracy than SIRS for predicting mortality and ICU-free days. However, it may be less clear whether qSOFA is also better than SIRS criteria for predicting ventilator free-days and organ dysfunction-free days. These findings may help clinicians gain further insight into the usefulness of qSOFA.
Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a devastating worldwide pandemic. Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has in vitro activity against SARS-CoV-2, but clinical data supporting HCQ ...for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are limited.
This was a retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who received ≥1 dose of HCQ at two New York City hospitals. We measured incident Grade 3 or 4 blood count and liver test abnormalities, ventricular arrhythmias, and vomiting and diarrhea within 10 days after HCQ initiation, and the proportion of patients who completed HCQ therapy. We also describe changes in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment hypoxia scores between baseline and day 10 after HCQ initiation and in-hospital mortality.
None of the 153 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who received HCQ developed a sustained ventricular tachyarrhythmia. Incident blood count and liver test abnormalities occurred in <15% of patients and incident vomiting or diarrhea was rare. Eighty-nine percent of patients completed their HCQ course and three patients discontinued therapy because of QT prolongation. Fifty-two percent of patients had improved hypoxia scores 10 days after starting HCQ. Thirty-one percent of patients who were receiving mechanical ventilation at the time of HCQ initiation died during their hospitalization, compared to 18% of patients who were receiving supplemental oxygen but not requiring mechanical ventilation, and 8% of patients who were not requiring supplemental oxygen. Co-administration of azithromycin was not associated with improved outcomes.
HCQ appears to be reasonably safe and tolerable in most hospitalized patients with COVID-19. However, nearly one-half of patients did not improve with this treatment, highlighting the need to evaluate HCQ and alternate therapies in randomized trials.
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