As they have in response to past climatic changes, many species will shift their distributions in response to modern climate change. However, due to the unprecedented rapidity of projected climatic ...changes, some species may not be able to move their ranges fast enough to track shifts in suitable climates and associated habitats. Here, we investigate the ability of 493 mammals to keep pace with projected climatic changes in the Western Hemisphere. We modeled the velocities at which species will likely need to move to keep pace with projected changes in suitable climates. We compared these velocities with the velocities at which species are able to move as a function of dispersal distances and dispersal frequencies. Across the Western Hemisphere, on average, 9.2% of mammals at a given location will likely be unable to keep pace with climate change. In some places, up to 39% of mammals may be unable to track shifts in suitable climates. Eighty-seven percent of mammalian species are expected to experience reductions in range size and 20% of these range reductions will likely be due to limited dispersal abilities as opposed to reductions in the area of suitable climate. Because climate change will likely outpace the response capacity of many mammals, mammalian vulnerability to climate change may be more extensive than previously anticipated.
Conservation practitioners have long recognized ecological connectivity as a global priority for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem function. In the early years of conservation science, ecologists ...extended principles of island biogeography to assess connectivity based on source patch proximity and other metrics derived from binary maps of habitat. From 2006 to 2008, the late Brad McRae introduced circuit theory as an alternative approach to model gene flow and the dispersal or movement routes of organisms. He posited concepts and metrics from electrical circuit theory as a robust way to quantify movement across multiple possible paths in a landscape, not just a single least‐cost path or corridor. Circuit theory offers many theoretical, conceptual, and practical linkages to conservation science. We reviewed 459 recent studies citing circuit theory or the open‐source software Circuitscape. We focused on applications of circuit theory to the science and practice of connectivity conservation, including topics in landscape and population genetics, movement and dispersal paths of organisms, anthropogenic barriers to connectivity, fire behavior, water flow, and ecosystem services. Circuit theory is likely to have an effect on conservation science and practitioners through improved insights into landscape dynamics, animal movement, and habitat‐use studies and through the development of new software tools for data analysis and visualization. The influence of circuit theory on conservation comes from the theoretical basis and elegance of the approach and the powerful collaborations and active user community that have emerged. Circuit theory provides a springboard for ecological understanding and will remain an important conservation tool for researchers and practitioners around the globe.
Aplicaciones de la Teoría de Circuitos a la Conservación y a la Ciencia de la Conectividad
Resumen
Quienes practican la conservación han reconocido durante mucho tiempo que la conectividad ecológica es una prioridad mundial para la preservación de la biodiversidad y el funcionamiento del ecosistema. Durante los primeros años de la ciencia de la conservación los ecólogos difundieron los principios de la biografía de islas para evaluar la conectividad con base en la proximidad entre el origen y el fragmento, así como otras medidas derivadas de los mapas binarios de los hábitats. Entre 2006 y 2008 el fallecido Brad McRae introdujo la teoría de circuitos como una estrategia alternativa para modelar el flujo génico y la dispersión o las rutas de movimiento de los organismos. McRae propuso conceptos y medidas de la teoría de circuitos eléctricos como una manera robusta para cuantificar el movimiento a lo largo de múltiples caminos posibles en un paisaje, no solamente a lo largo de un camino o corredor de menor costo. La teoría de circuitos ofrece muchos enlaces teóricos, conceptuales y prácticos con la ciencia de la conservación. Revisamos 459 estudios recientes que citan la teoría de circuitos o el software de fuente abierta Circuitscape. Nos enfocamos en las aplicaciones de la teoría de circuitos a la ciencia y a la práctica de la conservación de la conectividad, incluyendo temas como la genética poblacional y del paisaje, movimiento y caminos de dispersión de los organismos, barreras antropogénicas de la conectividad, comportamiento ante incendios, flujo del agua, y servicios ambientales. La teoría de circuitos probablemente tenga un efecto sobre la ciencia de la conservación y quienes la practican por medio de una percepción mejorada de las dinámicas del paisaje, el movimiento animal, y los estudios de uso de hábitat, y por medio del desarrollo de nuevas herramientas de software para el análisis de datos y su visualización. La influencia de la teoría de circuitos sobre la conservación viene de la base teórica y la elegancia de la estrategia y de las colaboraciones fuertes y la comunidad activa de usuarios que han surgido recientemente. La teoría de circuitos proporciona un trampolín para el entendimiento ecológico y seguirá siendo una importante herramienta de conservación para los investigadores y practicantes en todo el mundo.
摘要
保护实践者长期以来一直将生态连接度视为保护生物多样性和生态系统功能的当务之急。在保护科学发展早期, 生态学家将岛屿生物地理学的原理进行扩展, 基于源斑块邻近度和其它来自二元生境图的指标来评估连接度。2006 年到2008 年, 已故的Brad McRae 引入了电路理论, 作为模拟基因流和生物体扩散或移动路径的新方法。他用电路理论中的概念和指标开发了一种稳健的方法来量化景观中多种可能的移动路径, 而这不只是一条最低成本的路径或廊道。电路理论为保护科学提供了许多理论、概念和实践方面的联系。我们综述了近期引用电路理论或是开源软件Circuitscape的459 项研究, 重点关注电路理论在连接度保护科学与实践中的应用, 包括景观和种群遗传学、生物体运动和扩散路径、连接度的人为障碍、火灾、水流和生态系统服务等问题。电路理论通过帮助理解景观动力学、动物移动和生境利用研究, 以及开发新的数据分析和可视化软件工具, 影响着保护科学和实践者。电路理论对保护的影响来自于该方法的理论基础和优雅性, 以及现已出现的强大的合作队伍和活跃的用户群体。电路理论为生态学理解提供了跳板, 并将继续作为全球研究人员和实践者的重要保护工具。翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚
Article impact statement: Uses of circuit theory to understand connectivity have had a durable and global impact on conservation science and practice.
A nanopore-based device provides single-molecule detection and analytical capabilities that are achieved by electrophoretically driving molecules in solution through a nano-scale pore. The nanopore ...provides a highly confined space within which single nucleic acid polymers can be analyzed at high throughput by one of a variety of means, and the perfect processivity that can be enforced in a narrow pore ensures that the native order of the nucleobases in a polynucleotide is reflected in the sequence of signals that is detected. Kilobase length polymers (single-stranded genomic DNA or RNA) or small molecules (e.g., nucleosides) can be identified and characterized without amplification or labeling, a unique analytical capability that makes inexpensive, rapid DNA sequencing a possibility. Further research and development to overcome current challenges to nanopore identification of each successive nucleotide in a DNA strand offers the prospect of 'third generation' instruments that will sequence a diploid mammalian genome for approximately $1,000 in approximately 24 h.
Empirical studies and habitat suitability modeling project significant shifts in species distributions in response to climate change. Because habitat fragmentation can impede species range shifts, ...wildlife corridors may have increasing importance in enhancing climate resilience for species persistence. While habitat connectivity has been studied for over four decades, the design of connectivity specifically to facilitate species movement in response to climate change is a relatively new challenge. We conducted a systematic review of 116 relevant papers from 1996-2017. Research focused on assessing the utility of habitat connectivity for climate change adaptation by species (N = 29) and modeling and mapping climate-wise connectivity for planning purposes (N = 55). Others addressed fundamental questions of connectivity related to climate adaptation (N = 31). Based on empirical data and computer simulations examining species range shifts in response to climate change at leading edges of current distributions; it is clear that large protected areas connected through linkages, and stepping stones embedded in a permeable matrix promote population persistence and facilitate range expansion. We identified 13 approaches to modeling climate-wise connectivity based on either focal species or landscape structure. When prioritizing areas for connectivity conservation, approaches include focusing on connecting areas of low climate velocity, refugia, climate analogs, or linking current to future suitable habitats. Riparian corridors should be considered in connectivity plans because of their importance as natural movement corridors, climate gradients, and refugia. Guidance is provided on selecting the best methods for connectivity design depending on the objectives, available data, and landscape context. Future research needs to evaluate the functionality of climate-wise connectivity models for facilitating range shifts and compare connectivity outcomes across modeling approaches.
When the Human Genome Project was completed in 2003, automated Sanger DNA sequencing with fluorescent dye labels was the dominant technology. Several nascent alternative methods based on older ideas ...that had not been fully developed were the focus of technical researchers and companies. Funding agencies recognized the dynamic nature of technology development and that, beyond the Human Genome Project, there were growing opportunities to deploy DNA sequencing in biological research. Consequently, the National Human Genome Research Institute of the National Institutes of Health created a program-widely known as the Advanced Sequencing Technology Program-that stimulated all stages of development of new DNA sequencing methods, from innovation to advanced manufacturing and production testing, with the goal of reducing the cost of sequencing a human genome first to $100,000 and then to $1,000. The events of this period provide a powerful example of how judicious funding of academic and commercial partners can rapidly advance core technology developments that lead to profound advances across the scientific landscape.
Making habitat connectivity a reality Keeley, Annika T. H.; Basson, Galli; Cameron, D. Richard ...
Conservation biology,
December 2018, Volume:
32, Issue:
6
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Although a plethora of habitat-connectivity plans exists, protecting and restoring connectivity through on-the-ground action has been slow. We identified challenges to and opportunities for ...connectivity conservation through a literature review of project implementation, a workshop with scientists and conservation practitioners, 3 case studies of connectivity projects, and interviews with conservation professionals. Connectivity challenges and solutions tended to be context specific, dependent on land-ownershippatterns, socioeconomic factors, and the policy framework. Successful connectivity implementation tended to be associated with development and promotion of a common vision among diverse sets of stakeholders, including nontraditional conservation actors, such as water districts and recreation departments, and with communication with partners and the public. Otherfactors that lead to successful implementation included undertaking empirical studies to prioritize and validate corridors and the identification of related co-benefits of corridorprojects. Engaging partners involved in land management and planning, such as nongovernmental conservation organizations, public agencies, and private landowners, is critical to effective strategy implementation. A clear regulatory framework, including unambiguous connectivity conservation mandates, would increasepublic resource allocation, and incentive programs are needed to promote private sector engagement. Connectivity conservation must move more rapidly from planning to implementation. We provide an evidence-based solution composed of key elementsfor successful on-the-ground connectivity implementation. We identified the socialprocesses necessary to advance habitat connectivity for biodiversity conservation and resilient landscapes under climate change. Aunque existe una plétora de planes para la conectividad de habitat, la protección y la restauración de la conectividad por medio de acciones en el lugar han sido lentas. Identificamos los retos y las oportunidades para la conservación por conectividad mediante una revisión de la literatura sobre la implementación de proyectos, un taller con científicos y practicantes de la conservación, tres estudios de caso sobre proyectos de conectividad, y entrevistas con profesionales de la conservación. Los retos y las soluciones para la conectividad tendieron a ser específicas del contexto, dependientes de los patrones de propiedad de tierras, factores socioeconómicos, y el marco de trabajo político. La implementación exitosa de la conectividad tendió a estar asociada con el desarrollo y la promoción de una visión común entre los diversos conjuntos de accionistas, incluyendo a actores no tradicionales de la conservación, como los distritos acuáticos y los departamentos de recreación, y con la comunicación con los socios y el público. Otros factores que derivan en la implementación exitosa incluyeron el comienzo de estudios empíricos para priorizar y validar corredores y la identificación de los co-beneficios relacionados de los proyectos de los corredores. El compromiso de los socios involucrados en el manejo y laplaneación de las tierras, como las organizaciones no gubernamentales, agencias públicas, y terratenientes privados, es de suma importancia para la implementadón efectiva de las estrategias. Un marco de trabajo regulatorio evidente, incluyendo los mandatos inequívocos de la conservación por conectividad, incrementaría la asignación de recursos públicos, además de que los programas de incentivos son necesarios para promover el compromiso entre el sector privado. La conservación por conectividad debe avanzar más rápidamente de laplaneación hacia la implementadón y debe proporcionar una solución con base en evidencias compuesta por elementos clave para tener una implementadón exitosa de la conectividad en el lugar. Identificamos los procesos sociales necesarios para avanzar la conectividad de habitat para la conservación de la biodiversidad y los paisajes resistentes ante el cambio climático. 尽管存在着大量連接栖息地的计划，保护和恢复栖息地连接度的实际行动却很少。通过对项目实施情况 进行文献综述、组织科学家与保护实践者的研讨会、三个栖息地连接项目的案例分析，以及与保护专家访谈，我 们确定了连接度保护面临的挑战和机遇。栖息地连接面临的挑战和解决方案往往是情境特定的，取决于土地所 有权类型、社会经济学因素和政策框架。而栖息地連接的成功实施则需要发展和促成多方利益相关者（包括非 传统的保护参与者，如水源区和休闲场所) 之间的共同愿景，并与合作者和公众进行沟通。保护成功实施的其它 因素还包括进行实证研究来确定廊道建设的优先性和可行性，以及廊道建设项目的相关效益。吸引非政府保护 组织、公共机构和私人土地所有者等合作者參与到土地管理和规划中，对于保护战略的有效实施也至关重要。 一个清晰的监管框架(包括明确的连接度保护规定) 能够提高公共资源配置效率，另外还需要激励制度来推动 私营部门的參与。连接性保护必须更快地从规划转向实施，并提供基于经验的解决方案其中含有栖息地连接性 保护的成功实施的关键要素。本研究确定了在气候变化背景下，为生物多祥性保护和景观恢复而提髙栖息地连接性所必需的社会过程.
Geodiversity has been used as a surrogate for biodiversity when species locations are unknown, and this utility can be extended to situations where species locations are in flux. Recently, scientists ...have designed conservation networks that aim to explicitly represent the range of geophysical environments, identifying a network of physical stages that could sustain biodiversity while allowing for change in species composition in response to climate change. Because there is no standard approach to designing such networks, we compiled 8 case studies illustrating a variety of ways scientists have approached the challenge. These studies show how geodiversity has been partitioned and used to develop site portfolios and connectivity designs; how geodiversity‐based portfolios compare with those derived from species and communities; and how the selection and combination of variables influences the results. Collectively, they suggest 4 key steps when using geodiversity to augment traditional biodiversity‐based conservation planning: create land units from species‐relevant variables combined in an ecologically meaningful way; represent land units in a logical spatial configuration and integrate with species locations when possible; apply selection criteria to individual sites to ensure they are appropriate for conservation; and develop connectivity among sites to maintain movements and processes. With these considerations, conservationists can design more effective site portfolios to ensure the lasting conservation of biodiversity under a changing climate.
Estimates of potential evaporation
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p are commonly employed in terrestrial water balance and net primary productivity models. This study compared a set of 11
E
p methods in a global-scale water ...balance model (WBM) applied to 3265 0.5° (lat. × long.) grid cells representing the conterminous US. The
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p methods ranged from simple temperature-driven equations to physically-based combination approaches and include reference surface
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pr and surface cover-dependent
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ps algorithms. Cover-dependent parameters were assigned
a priori based on grid cell vegetation. The WBM applies mean monthly climatic drivers and other biophysical inputs to compute water budgets on individual grid cells using a quasi-daily time step. For each
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p method water budgets were computed and compared against mean monthly and annual streamflow from 679 gauged watersheds, assumed to be representative of the grid cells in which they reside. Procedures were developed for excluding watersheds for which this assumption was questionable, and 330 of the original 1009 watersheds were removed from further analysis. Among
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pr methods, the range of mean bias relative to observed runoff, and thus simulated actual evapotranspiration
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s, varied from approximately −100 to +100 mm yr
−1;
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ps methods had a substantially smaller range, from about −50 to +50 mm yr
−1. These results agree well with previous
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p intercomparison studies at the point scale. Some individual methods from both the
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pr and
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ps groups yielded relatively small overall bias when compared with observed discharge data, suggesting the utility of simple as well as physically-based evaporation functions in continental- and global-scale applications. For any individual method, the spatial distribution of
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s across the US was significantly altered relative to that of
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p due to moisture-induced limits on soil drying. These limitations were most pronounced in hot, dry areas, where differences among
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p methods in excess of 700 mm yr
−1 were reduced to differences of less than 200 mm yr
−1 in
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s and runoff. There was a correspondingly higher sensitivity of
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s to the choice of
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p in more humid regions. These findings suggest that predictions made by macro-scale hydrology models like the WBM can be sensitive to the specific
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p method applied and that this sensitivity results in bias relative to measured components of the terrestrial water cycle. The adoption of particular
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p functions within such models should be conditioned upon the comparison of water budget calculations to suitable records of observed discharge.
Balancing society's competing needs of development and conservation requires careful consideration of tradeoffs. Renewable energy development and biodiversity conservation are often considered ...beneficial environmental goals. The direct footprint and disturbance of renewable energy, however, can displace species' habitat and negatively impact populations and natural communities if sited without ecological consideration. Offsets have emerged as a potentially useful tool to mitigate residual impacts after trying to avoid, minimize, or restore affected sites. Yet the problem of efficiently designing a set of offset sites becomes increasingly complex where many species or many sites are involved. Spatial conservation prioritization tools are designed to handle this problem, but have seen little application to offset siting and analysis. To address this need we designed an offset siting support tool for the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan (DRECP) of California, and present a case study of hypothetical impacts from solar development in the Western Mojave subsection. We compare two offset scenarios designed to mitigate a hypothetical 15,331 ha derived from proposed utility-scale solar energy development (USSED) projects. The first scenario prioritizes offsets based precisely on impacted features, while the second scenario offsets impacts to maximize biodiversity conservation gains in the region. The two methods only agree on 28% of their prioritized sites and differ in meeting species-specific offset goals. Differences between the two scenarios highlight the importance of clearly specifying choices and priorities for offset siting and mitigation in general. Similarly, the effects of background climate and land use change may lessen the durability or effectiveness of offsets if not considered. Our offset siting support tool was designed specifically for the DRECP area, but with minor code modification could work well in other offset analyses, and could provide continuing support for a potentially innovative mitigation solution to environmental impacts.
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