We present Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and Chandra imaging, combined with Very Large Telescope MUSE integral field spectroscopy of the counterpart and host galaxy of the first binary neutron star ...merger detected via gravitational-wave emission by LIGO and Virgo, GW170817. The host galaxy, NGC 4993, is an S0 galaxy at z = 0.009783. There is evidence for large, face-on spiral shells in continuum imaging, and edge-on spiral features visible in nebular emission lines. This suggests that NGC 4993 has undergone a relatively recent ( 1 Gyr) "dry" merger. This merger may provide the fuel for a weak active nucleus seen in Chandra imaging. At the location of the counterpart, HST imaging implies there is no globular or young stellar cluster, with a limit of a few thousand solar masses for any young system. The population in the vicinity is predominantly old with 1% of any light arising from a population with ages < 500 Myr . Both the host galaxy properties and those of the transient location are consistent with the distributions seen for short-duration gamma-ray bursts, although the source position lies well within the effective radius ( r e ∼ 3 kpc), providing an re-normalized offset that is closer than ∼ 90 % of short GRBs. For the long delay time implied by the stellar population, this suggests that the kick velocity was significantly less than the galaxy escape velocity. We do not see any narrow host galaxy interstellar medium features within the counterpart spectrum, implying low extinction, and that the binary may lie in front of the bulk of the host galaxy.
We report the discovery and monitoring of the near-infrared counterpart (AT2017gfo) of a binary neutron-star merger event detected as a gravitational wave source by Advanced Laser Interferometer ...Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO)/Virgo (GW170817) and as a short gamma-ray burst by Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) and Integral SPI-ACS (GRB 170817A). The evolution of the transient light is consistent with predictions for the behavior of a "kilonova/macronova" powered by the radioactive decay of massive neutron-rich nuclides created via r-process nucleosynthesis in the neutron-star ejecta. In particular, evidence for this scenario is found from broad features seen in Hubble Space Telescope infrared spectroscopy, similar to those predicted for lanthanide-dominated ejecta, and the much slower evolution in the near-infrared K s -band compared to the optical. This indicates that the late-time light is dominated by high-opacity lanthanide-rich ejecta, suggesting nucleosynthesis to the third r-process peak (atomic masses A 195 ). This discovery confirms that neutron-star mergers produce kilo-/macronovae and that they are at least a major-if not the dominant-site of rapid neutron capture nucleosynthesis in the universe.
We report the observation of gravitational waves from a binary-black-hole coalescence during the first two weeks of LIGO’s and Virgo’s third observing run. The signal was recorded on April 12, 2019 ...at05∶30∶44 UTC with a network signal-to-noise ratio of 19. The binary is different from observations during the first two observing runs most notably due to its asymmetric masses: a∼30M⊙black hole merged with a ∼8M⊙black hole companion. The more massive black hole rotated with a dimensionless spin magnitude between 0.22 and 0.60 (90% probability). Asymmetric systems are predicted to emit gravitational waves with stronger contributions from higher multipoles, and indeed we find strong evidence for gravitational radiation beyond the leading quadrupolar order in the observed signal. A suite of tests performed onGW190412 indicates consistency with Einstein’s general theory of relativity. While the mass ratio of this system differs from all previous detections, we show that it is consistent with the population model of stellar binary black holes inferred from the first two observing runs.
We conducted a systematic review of guidelines on the management of low back pain (LBP) to assess their methodological quality and guide care. We synthesized guidelines on the management of LBP ...published from 2005 to 2014 following best evidence synthesis principles. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane, DARE, National Health Services Economic Evaluation Database, Health Technology Assessment Database, Index to Chiropractic Literature and grey literature. Independent reviewers critically appraised eligible guidelines using AGREE II criteria. We screened 2504 citations; 13 guidelines were eligible for critical appraisal, and 10 had a low risk of bias. According to high‐quality guidelines: (1) all patients with acute or chronic LBP should receive education, reassurance and instruction on self‐management options; (2) patients with acute LBP should be encouraged to return to activity and may benefit from paracetamol, nonsteroidal anti‐inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), or spinal manipulation; (3) the management of chronic LBP may include exercise, paracetamol or NSAIDs, manual therapy, acupuncture, and multimodal rehabilitation (combined physical and psychological treatment); and (4) patients with lumbar disc herniation with radiculopathy may benefit from spinal manipulation. Ten guidelines were of high methodological quality, but updating and some methodological improvements are needed. Overall, most guidelines target nonspecific LBP and recommend education, staying active/exercise, manual therapy, and paracetamol or NSAIDs as first‐line treatments. The recommendation to use paracetamol for acute LBP is challenged by recent evidence and needs to be revisited.
Significance
Most high‐quality guidelines recommend education, staying active/exercise, manual therapy and paracetamol/NSAIDs as first‐line treatments for LBP. Recommendation of paracetamol for acute LBP is challenged by recent evidence and needs updating.
Funnel plots, and tests for funnel plot asymmetry, have been widely used to examine bias in the results of meta-analyses. Funnel plot asymmetry should not be equated with publication bias, because it ...has a number of other possible causes. This article describes how to interpret funnel plot asymmetry, recommends appropriate tests, and explains the implications for choice of meta-analysis model
We report the observation of a compact binary coalescence involving a 22.2-24.3 M black hole and a compact object with a mass of 2.50-2.67 M (all measurements quoted at the 90% credible level). The ...gravitational-wave signal, GW190814, was observed during LIGO's and Virgo's third observing run on 2019 August 14 at 21:10:39 UTC and has a signal-to-noise ratio of 25 in the three-detector network. The source was localized to 18.5 deg2 at a distance of Mpc; no electromagnetic counterpart has been confirmed to date. The source has the most unequal mass ratio yet measured with gravitational waves, , and its secondary component is either the lightest black hole or the heaviest neutron star ever discovered in a double compact-object system. The dimensionless spin of the primary black hole is tightly constrained to ≤0.07. Tests of general relativity reveal no measurable deviations from the theory, and its prediction of higher-multipole emission is confirmed at high confidence. We estimate a merger rate density of 1-23 Gpc−3 yr−1 for the new class of binary coalescence sources that GW190814 represents. Astrophysical models predict that binaries with mass ratios similar to this event can form through several channels, but are unlikely to have formed in globular clusters. However, the combination of mass ratio, component masses, and the inferred merger rate for this event challenges all current models of the formation and mass distribution of compact-object binaries.
Global Carbon Budget 2020 Friedlingstein, Pierre; O'Sullivan, Michael; Jones, Matthew W ...
Earth system science data,
12/2020, Volume:
12, Issue:
4
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and
their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere
in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” ...– is important to
better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of
climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and
synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components
of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2
emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production
data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly
deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and
bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly
and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in
concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial
CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models
constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance
(BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the
estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a
measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon
cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last
decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and
ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget
imbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between
estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the
growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing
to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was
5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN
was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2
concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary
data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions,
suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median
estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %,
−7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the
components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the
period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the
representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of
estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus
in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2)
a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of
the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent
discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the
tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update
documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global
carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle
compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al.,
2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014,
2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020).
We report the observation of gravitational waves from two compact binary coalescences in LIGO's and Virgo's third observing run with properties consistent with neutron star-black hole (NSBH) ...binaries. The two events are named GW200105_162426 and GW200115_042309, abbreviated as GW200105 and GW200115; the first was observed by LIGO Livingston and Virgo, and the second by all three LIGO-Virgo detectors. The source of GW200105 has component masses 8.9(exp +1.2/-1.5) M⨀ and 1.9(exp +0.3/-0.2) M⨀, whereas the source of GW200115 has component masses 5.7(exp +1.8/-2.1) M⨀ and 1.5(exp +0.7/-0.3) M⨀ (all measurements quoted at the 90% credible level). The probability that the secondary's mass is below the maximal mass of a neutron star is 89%-96% and 87%-98%, respectively, for GW200105 and GW200115, with the ranges arising from different astrophysical assumptions. The source luminosity distances are 280(exp +110/-110) Mpc and 300(+150/-100) Mpc, respectively. The magnitude of the primary spin of GW200105 is less than 0.23 at the 90% credible level, and its orientation is unconstrained. For GW200115, the primary spin has a negative spin projection onto the orbital angular momentum at 88% probability. We are unable to constrain the spin or tidal deformation of the secondary component for either event. We infer an NSBH merger rate density of 45(exp +75/-33) Gpc(exp -3) yr(exp -1) when assuming that GW200105 and GW200115 are representative of the NSBH population, or 130(+112/-69) Gpc(exp -3) yr(exp -1) under the assumption of a broader distribution of component masses.
We report on the population of 47 compact binary mergers detected with a false-alarm rate of <1yr^(−1) in the second LIGO–Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog. We observe several ...characteristics of the merging binary black hole (BBH) population not discernible until now. First, the primary mass spectrum contains structure beyond a power law with a sharp high-mass cutoff; it is more consistent with a broken power law with a break at 39.7^(+20.3)(-9.1)M or a power law with a Gaussian feature peaking at 33.1^(+4.0)(-5.6)M (90% credible interval). While the primary mass distribution must extend to ~65M or beyond, only 2.9^(+3.5)(-1.7)M% of systems have primary masses greater than 45M. Second, we find that a fraction of BBH systems have component spins misaligned with the orbital angular momentum, giving rise to precession of the orbital plane. Moreover, 12% to 44% of BBH systems have spins tilted by more than 90°, giving rise to a negative effective inspiral spin parameter, χeff. Under the assumption that such systems can only be formed by dynamical interactions, we infer that between 25% and 93% of BBHs with nonvanishing |χeff| > 0.01 are dynamically assembled. Third, we estimate merger rates, finding RBBH = 23.9^(+14.3)(-8.6) Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1) for BBHs and RBNS = 320^(+490)(-240) Gpc^(-3) yr^(-1) for binary neutron stars. We find that the BBH rate likely increases with redshift (85% credibility) but not faster than the star formation rate (86% credibility). Additionally, we examine recent exceptional events in the context of our population models, finding that the asymmetric masses of GW190412 and the high component masses of GW190521 are consistent with our models, but the low secondary mass of GW190814 makes it an outlier.
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