Typhi is a major cause of fever in children in low- and middle-income countries. A typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) that was recently prequalified by the World Health Organization was shown to be ...efficacious in a human challenge model, but data from efficacy trials in areas where typhoid is endemic are lacking.
In this phase 3, randomized, controlled trial in Lalitpur, Nepal, in which both the participants and observers were unaware of the trial-group assignments, we randomly assigned children who were between 9 months and 16 years of age, in a 1:1 ratio, to receive either a TCV or a capsular group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenA) as a control. The primary outcome was typhoid fever confirmed by blood culture. We present the prespecified analysis of the primary and main secondary outcomes (including an immunogenicity subgroup); the 2-year trial follow-up is ongoing.
A total of 10,005 participants received the TCV and 10,014 received the MenA vaccine. Blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever occurred in 7 participants who received TCV (79 cases per 100,000 person-years) and in 38 who received MenA vaccine (428 cases per 100,000 person-years) (vaccine efficacy, 81.6%; 95% confidence interval, 58.8 to 91.8; P<0.001). A total of 132 serious adverse events (61 in the TCV group and 71 in the MenA vaccine group) occurred in the first 6 months, and 1 event (pyrexia) was identified as being vaccine-related; the participant remained unaware of the trial-group assignment. Similar rates of adverse events were noted in the two trial groups; fever developed in 5.0% of participants in the TCV group and 5.4% in the MenA vaccine group in the first week after vaccination. In the immunogenicity subgroup, seroconversion (a Vi IgG level that at least quadrupled 28 days after vaccination) was 99% in the TCV group (677 of 683 participants) and 2% in the MenA vaccine group (8 of 380 participants).
A single dose of TCV was immunogenic and effective in reducing
Typhi bacteremia in children 9 months to 16 years of age. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN43385161.).
The global supply of COVID-19 vaccines remains limited. An understanding of the immune response that is predictive of protection could facilitate rapid licensure of new vaccines. Data from a ...randomized efficacy trial of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine in the United Kingdom was analyzed to determine the antibody levels associated with protection against SARS-CoV-2. Binding and neutralizing antibodies at 28 days after the second dose were measured in infected and noninfected vaccine recipients. Higher levels of all immune markers were correlated with a reduced risk of symptomatic infection. A vaccine efficacy of 80% against symptomatic infection with majority Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant of SARS-CoV-2 was achieved with 264 (95% CI: 108, 806) binding antibody units (BAU)/ml: and 506 (95% CI: 135, not computed (beyond data range) (NC)) BAU/ml for anti-spike and anti-RBD antibodies, and 26 (95% CI: NC, NC) international unit (IU)/ml and 247 (95% CI: 101, NC) normalized neutralization titers (NF
) for pseudovirus and live-virus neutralization, respectively. Immune markers were not correlated with asymptomatic infections at the 5% significance level. These data can be used to bridge to new populations using validated assays, and allow extrapolation of efficacy estimates to new COVID-19 vaccines.
Assessment of the safety and efficacy of vaccines against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in different populations is essential, as is investigation of the efficacy ...of the vaccines against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, including the B.1.351 (501Y.V2) variant first identified in South Africa.
We conducted a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, controlled trial to assess the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) in people not infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa. Participants 18 to less than 65 years of age were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive two doses of vaccine containing 5×10
viral particles or placebo (0.9% sodium chloride solution) 21 to 35 days apart. Serum samples obtained from 25 participants after the second dose were tested by pseudovirus and live-virus neutralization assays against the original D614G virus and the B.1.351 variant. The primary end points were safety and efficacy of the vaccine against laboratory-confirmed symptomatic coronavirus 2019 illness (Covid-19) more than 14 days after the second dose.
Between June 24 and November 9, 2020, we enrolled 2026 HIV-negative adults (median age, 30 years); 1010 and 1011 participants received at least one dose of placebo or vaccine, respectively. Both the pseudovirus and the live-virus neutralization assays showed greater resistance to the B.1.351 variant in serum samples obtained from vaccine recipients than in samples from placebo recipients. In the primary end-point analysis, mild-to-moderate Covid-19 developed in 23 of 717 placebo recipients (3.2%) and in 19 of 750 vaccine recipients (2.5%), for an efficacy of 21.9% (95% confidence interval CI, -49.9 to 59.8). Among the 42 participants with Covid-19, 39 cases (95.1% of 41 with sequencing data) were caused by the B.1.351 variant; vaccine efficacy against this variant, analyzed as a secondary end point, was 10.4% (95% CI, -76.8 to 54.8). The incidence of serious adverse events was balanced between the vaccine and placebo groups.
A two-dose regimen of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine did not show protection against mild-to-moderate Covid-19 due to the B.1.351 variant. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04444674; Pan African Clinical Trials Registry number, PACTR202006922165132).
Summary Background Compulsory supervision outside hospital has been developed internationally for the treatment of mentally ill people following widespread deinstitutionalisation but its efficacy has ...not yet been proven. Community treatment orders (CTOs) for psychiatric patients became available in England and Wales in 2008. We tested whether CTOs reduce admissions compared with use of Section 17 leave when patients in both groups receive equivalent levels of clinical contact but different lengths of compulsory supervision. Methods OCTET is a non-blinded, parallel-arm randomised controlled trial. We postulated that patients with a diagnosis of psychosis discharged from hospital on CTOs would have a lower rate of readmission over 12 months than those discharged on the pre-existing Section 17 leave of absence. Eligible patients were those involuntarily admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of psychosis, aged 18–65 years, who were deemed suitable for supervised outpatient care by their clinicians. Consenting patients were randomly assigned (1:1 ratio) to be discharged from hospital either on CTO or Section 17 leave. Randomisation used random permuted blocks with lengths of two, four, and six, and stratified for sex, schizophrenic diagnosis, and duration of illness. Research assistants, treating clinicians, and patients were aware of assignment to randomisation group. The primary outcome measure was whether or not the patient was admitted to hospital during the 12-month follow-up period, analysed with a log-binomial regression model adjusted for stratification factors. We did all analyses by intention to treat. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN73110773. Findings Of 442 patients assessed, 336 patients were randomly assigned to be discharged from hospital either on CTO (167 patients) or Section 17 leave (169 patients). One patient withdrew directly after randomisation and two were ineligible, giving a total sample of 333 patients (166 in the CTO group and 167 in the Section 17 group). At 12 months, despite the fact that the length of initial compulsory outpatient treatment differed significantly between the two groups (median 183 days CTO group vs 8 days Section 17 group, p<0·001) the number of patients readmitted did not differ between groups (59 36% of 166 patients in the CTO group vs 60 36% of 167 patients in the Section 17 group; adjusted relative risk 1·0 95% CI 0·75–1·33). Interpretation In well coordinated mental health services the imposition of compulsory supervision does not reduce the rate of readmission of psychotic patients. We found no support in terms of any reduction in overall hospital admission to justify the significant curtailment of patients' personal liberty. Funding National Institute of Health Research.
Before considering whether to use a multivariable (diagnostic or prognostic) prediction model, it is essential that its performance be evaluated in data that were not used to develop the model ...(referred to as external validation). We critically appraised the methodological conduct and reporting of external validation studies of multivariable prediction models.
We conducted a systematic review of articles describing some form of external validation of one or more multivariable prediction models indexed in PubMed core clinical journals published in 2010. Study data were extracted in duplicate on design, sample size, handling of missing data, reference to the original study developing the prediction models and predictive performance measures.
11,826 articles were identified and 78 were included for full review, which described the evaluation of 120 prediction models. in participant data that were not used to develop the model. Thirty-three articles described both the development of a prediction model and an evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset, and 45 articles described only the evaluation of an existing published prediction model on another dataset. Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and evaluated as simplified scoring systems. Sixteen percent of articles failed to report the number of outcome events in the validation datasets. Fifty-four percent of studies made no explicit mention of missing data. Sixty-seven percent did not report evaluating model calibration whilst most studies evaluated model discrimination. It was often unclear whether the reported performance measures were for the full regression model or for the simplified models.
The vast majority of studies describing some form of external validation of a multivariable prediction model were poorly reported with key details frequently not presented. The validation studies were characterised by poor design, inappropriate handling and acknowledgement of missing data and one of the most key performance measures of prediction models i.e. calibration often omitted from the publication. It may therefore not be surprising that an overwhelming majority of developed prediction models are not used in practice, when there is a dearth of well-conducted and clearly reported (external validation) studies describing their performance on independent participant data.
Babies born preterm are at an increased risk of dying in the first weeks of life, and those who survive have a higher rate of cerebral palsy (CP) compared with babies born at term. The aim of this ...individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis (MA) was to assess the effects of antenatal magnesium sulphate, compared with no magnesium treatment, given to women at risk of preterm birth on important maternal and fetal outcomes, including survival free of CP, and whether effects differed by participant or treatment characteristics such as the reason the woman was at risk of preterm birth, why treatment was given, the gestational age at which magnesium sulphate treatment was received, or the dose and timing of the administration of magnesium sulphate.
Trials in which women considered at risk of preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation) were randomised to magnesium sulphate or control treatment and where neurologic outcomes for the baby were reported were eligible for inclusion. The primary outcomes were infant death or CP and severe maternal outcome potentially related to treatment. Studies were identified based on the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth search strategy using the terms antenatal or prenatal and magnesium and preterm or premature or neuroprotection or 'cerebral palsy'. The date of the last search was 28 February 2017. IPD were sought from investigators with eligible trials. Risk of bias was assessed using criteria from the Cochrane Collaboration. For each prespecified outcome, IPD were analysed using a 1-stage approach. All 5 trials identified were included, with 5,493 women and 6,131 babies. Overall, there was no clear effect of magnesium sulphate treatment compared with no treatment on the primary infant composite outcome of death or CP (relative risk RR 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.85 to 1.05, 6,131 babies, 5 trials, p = 0.07 for heterogeneity of treatment effect across trials). In the prespecified sensitivity analysis restricted to data from the 4 trials in which the intent of treatment was fetal neuroprotection, there was a significant reduction in the risk of death or CP with magnesium sulphate treatment compared with no treatment (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.99, 4,448 babies, 4 trials), with no significant heterogeneity (p = 0.28). The number needed to treat (NNT) to benefit was 41 women/babies to prevent 1 baby from either dying or having CP. For the primary outcome of severe maternal outcome potentially related to magnesium sulphate treatment, no events were recorded from the 2 trials providing data. When the individual components of the composite infant outcome were assessed, no effect was seen for death overall (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.17, 6,131 babies, 5 trials) or in the analysis of death using only data from trials with the intent of fetal neuroprotection (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.13, 4,448 babies, 4 trials). For cerebral palsy in survivors, magnesium sulphate treatment had a strong protective effect in both the overall analysis (RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.87, 4,601 babies, 5 trials, NNT to benefit 46) and the neuroprotective intent analysis (RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.87, 3,988 babies, 4 trials, NNT to benefit 42). No statistically significant differences were seen for any of the other secondary outcomes. The treatment effect varied little by the reason the woman was at risk of preterm birth, the gestational age at which magnesium sulphate treatment was given, the total dose received, or whether maintenance therapy was used. A limitation of the study was that not all trials could provide the data required for the planned analyses so that combined with low event rates for some important clinical events, the power to find a difference was limited.
Antenatal magnesium sulphate given prior to preterm birth for fetal neuroprotection prevents CP and reduces the combined risk of fetal/infant death or CP. Benefit is seen regardless of the reason for preterm birth, with similar effects across a range of preterm gestational ages and different treatment regimens. Widespread adoption worldwide of this relatively inexpensive, easy-to-administer treatment would lead to important global health benefits for infants born preterm.
Promising evidence has emerged of clinical gains using guided self-help cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) for child anxiety and by involving parents in treatment; however, the efficacy of guided ...parent-delivered CBT has not been systematically evaluated in UK primary and secondary settings.
To evaluate the efficacy of low-intensity guided parent-delivered CBT treatments for children with anxiety disorders.
A total of 194 children presenting with a current anxiety disorder, whose primary carer did not meet criteria for a current anxiety disorder, were randomly allocated to full guided parent-delivered CBT (four face-to-face and four telephone sessions) or brief guided parent-delivered CBT (two face-to-face and two telephone sessions), or a wait-list control group (trial registration: ISRCTN92977593). Presence and severity of child primary anxiety disorder (Anxiety Disorders Interview Schedule for DSM-IV, child/parent versions), improvement in child presentation of anxiety (Clinical Global Impression - Improvement scale), and change in child anxiety symptoms (Spence Children's Anxiety Scale, child/parent version and Child Anxiety Impact scale, parent version) were assessed at post-treatment and for those in the two active treatment groups, 6 months post-treatment.
Full guided parent-delivered CBT produced superior diagnostic outcomes compared with wait-list at post-treatment, whereas brief guided parent-delivered CBT did not: at post-treatment, 25 (50%) of those in the full guided CBT group had recovered from their primary diagnosis, compared with 16 (25%) of those on the wait-list (relative risk (RR) 1.85, 95% CI 1.14-2.99); and in the brief guided CBT group, 18 participants (39%) had recovered from their primary diagnosis post-treatment (RR = 1.56, 95% CI 0.89-2.74). Level of therapist training and experience was unrelated to child outcome.
Full guided parent-delivered CBT is an effective and inexpensive first-line treatment for child anxiety.
Children bear a substantial proportion of the enteric fever disease burden in endemic areas. Controversy persists regarding which age groups are most affected, leading to uncertainty about optimal ...intervention strategies. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies in Asia and Africa to compare the relative proportion of children with enteric fever in the age groups <5 years, 5–9 years, and 10–14 years. Overall, studies conducted in Africa showed a relatively smaller occurrence of disease in the youngest age group, whereas in Asia the picture was more mixed with a very large degree of heterogeneity in estimates. The clinical features of enteric fever reviewed here differ between younger and older children and adults, likely leading to further uncertainty over disease burden. It is evident from our review that preschool children and infants also contribute a significant proportion of disease burden but have not been adequately targeted via vaccination programs, which have been focusing primarily on school-based vaccination campaigns.
Abstract
The high efficacy, low cost, and long shelf-life of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine positions it well for use in in diverse socioeconomic settings. Using data from clinical trials, an ...individual-based model was constructed to predict its 6-month population-level impact. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses evaluated the importance of epidemiological, demographic and logistical factors on vaccine effectiveness. Rollout at various levels of availability and delivery speed, conditional on vaccine efficacy profiles (efficacy of each dose and interval between doses) were explored in representative countries. We highlight how expedient vaccine delivery to high-risk groups is critical in mitigating COVID-19 disease and mortality. In scenarios where the availability of vaccine is insufficient for high-risk groups to receive two doses, administration of a single dose of is optimal, even when vaccine efficacy after one dose is just 75% of the two doses. These findings can help inform allocation strategies particularly in areas constrained by availability.
A stepped wedge cluster randomised trial (SWCRT) is a multicentred study which allows an intervention to be rolled out at sites in a random order. Once the intervention is initiated at a site, all ...participants within that site remain exposed to the intervention for the remainder of the study. The time since the start of the study ("calendar time") may affect outcome measures through underlying time trends or periodicity. The time since the intervention was introduced to a site ("exposure time") may also affect outcomes cumulatively for successful interventions, possibly in addition to a step change when the intervention began.
Motivated by a SWCRT of self-monitoring for bipolar disorder, we conducted a simulation study to compare model formulations to analyse data from a SWCRT under 36 different scenarios in which time was related to the outcome (improvement in mood score). The aim was to find a model specification that would produce reliable estimates of intervention effects under different scenarios. Nine different formulations of a linear mixed effects model were fitted to these datasets. These models varied in the specification of calendar and exposure times.
Modelling the effects of the intervention was best accomplished by including terms for both calendar time and exposure time. Treating time as categorical (a separate parameter for each measurement time-step) achieved the best coverage probabilities and low bias, but at a cost of wider confidence intervals compared to simpler models for those scenarios which were sufficiently modelled by fewer parameters. Treating time as continuous and including a quadratic time term performed similarly well, with slightly larger variations in coverage probability, but narrower confidence intervals and in some cases lower bias. The impact of misspecifying the covariance structure was comparatively small.
We recommend that unless there is a priori information to indicate the form of the relationship between time and outcomes, data from SWCRTs should be analysed with a linear mixed effects model that includes separate categorical terms for calendar time and exposure time. Prespecified sensitivity analyses should consider the different formulations of these time effects in the model, to assess their impact on estimates of intervention effects.
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